Fantasy Football Week One Sit Em’s

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It’s time to get at least a part of your lineup submitted if you have key players from the Broncos and Ravens. Submitting one or two player’s is the easy part. Nominating your first five to six draft picks as starters is also rather easy. The tough part comes with the borderline questionable roster positions. Maybe you’re weak at tight end and drafted two mediocre ones. The flex position could be causing you a conundrum or the typical wide receiver three position.
Those bubble players’ are going to be vital for your weekly success. Often times a stat analyzer isn’t going to do justice with those type of player’s and you’re going to have to use your visceral feelings. With the cornucopia of bubble player’s out there it is key you take the appropriate time in analyzing the favorable matchups.

Here is week one’s addition of players to sit that are on the bubble. Win with your fantasy team’s and win against the spread

Quarterbacks

Josh Freeman
I’m big on Freeman having a bounce back season, but it won’t start in week one. The Jets defense has been retooled and Rex Ryan has kept his mouth quiet. He may be answering questions the media directs at him, but his typical antics and happy-go-lucky attitude are out the window. That’s the way he used to be when he ran the Ravens defense. The Buccaneers offense was one of the worst in the preseason. Expect them to take a game or two to turn it up a notch. This will be a low scoring non-fantasy friendly game against the Jets.

Carson Palmer
Early in preseason it’s funny how people can latch onto a team, and the storm catches everyone. Arizona is going to be better than last year but they have a ways to go. People are hyping the Cardinals defense, and overlooking their divisional foe in the Rams. Arizona just lost their first round draft pick in Cooper for the season. That’ s a heavy loss to an offensive line that was putrid last season. The Cardinals are one of those teams that can shuffle the backfield with veterans and draft picks with the best of them. They’ve drafted Ryan Williams, Thomas Jones, Beanie Wells, and now Stephan Taylor and Andre Ellington. They’ve also went the old veteran route with guys like Emmitt Smith, Edgerrin James, and now Rashard Mendenhall. They just can’t figure the backfield out. St. Louis’s defense is vastly underrated and I think they cause problems for four quarters for the Cardinals. The game may be close but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Palmer start the year with two to three interceptions and maybe a lost fumble.

Cam Newton
I’m not sure where Newton’s train of thought is going into the season, but his body language in the preseason seemed not in-tune. Maybe Newton has the old Mike Vick philosophy where he relied on his pure talents early on his career. You’d think Newton would have learned after last season’s atrocious start. To his credit he did correct his woes and finished the last five to six games strong. Based on what the Panthers bring to the table offensively, I think there is just too much pressure on Newton to do it himself. They need more talent around him in the backfield and at wide receiver. Seattle is a hawking opportunistic defense. I see Newton getting frustrated early moaping with a black towel on his head on the sidelines early in this game.

Running Backs

Doug Martin
I just profiled Josh Freeman and now I’ll profile Doug Martin. A star back such as Martin is not going to have a breakout game every week. When he does though he’ll more than make up for his dud performances. That’s why he was drafted where he was. New York is going to be a solid defense once again this year. Heading to New York week one is not easy, even though the Bucs made it look so last year early in the season against the Giants. The Jets are new every where. At wide receiver, tight end, running back, and quarterback. That rings a bell to a defense that hasn’t been awful but can play much better. New attitude meets better results Sunday. The Jets defense will stymie Martin.

Ronnie Hillman
Hillman needs consecutive games of garnering proper fantasy value before he has the right to be submitted in a lineup. Ignore the fact that he is on an elite offensive team. Denver has a plethora of backs and they’ll use them all until one steps forth. I think Hillman fits the mold of Felix Jones of a few years ago. The talent is there but will never make it onto the football field consistently. If you’re not expecting ten plus points from your back then he is not worth starting. Hillman will not get that amount of points.

Isaac Redman
It was a surprise to me that the Steelers parted ways with Jonathan Dwyer. He seemed to have a few decent preseason games. Fantasy owners love to look for the sleeper by default. Redman is that back as the Steelers will have to lean on him for likely two to three games. Redman may get you some yards but the Steelers have not been a red zone running team since Jerome Bettis. I could see Redman getting around seventy to eighty yards rushing without any impact out of the backfield or with touchdowns.

Wide Receivers

Anquan Boldin
Was the money worth it to the Arizona Cardinals and now Baltimore Ravens? It appears no. Boldin has tracked a lot of mileage over the years and I’m afraid he may have peaked out during the Ravens playoff run last year. Separation was not there from defenders. It was evident that he had lost a step and was relying more on his route running and physical presence than anything. A lot of Joe Flacco’s throws had to be precise for Boldin to snare it. San Francisco to me has a little bit of an aging problem at wide receiver and running back. Boldin fit well with the Cardinals and Ravens because he had another presence on the field with him in Torrey Smith and Larry Fitzgerald. Without Michael Crabtree the 49ers have to depend on Jon Baldwin or Kyle Williams. I’m sorry but Boldin is no longer a WR1 in fantasy and will hurt fantasy owners big time that think he can cut it as a WR3 for fantasy purposes.

Hakeem Nicks
If there is any secondary that is being challenged heavily going into Sunday it is the Cowboys. Eli Manning and the rest of the NFC East have torched this secondary for years. Whether the Cowboys can stop Victor Cruz is a different question, but they’ll contain one of the Giants receivers, and that will be Nicks. You hardly ever see a receiver that had as many nagging injuries as Nicks bounce back and have a big season the following year. The regression has started for Nicks and while he may have three to four big games, he is not going to come close to the production he had two years ago. New York has held him back all preseason. Only the greats can turn it on and off when battling injuries. Nicks is a solid receiver when healthy but that doesn’t appear to be the case heading into 2013.

TY Hilton
Though I believe the Raiders have a long ways to go, I’m high on their head coach Dennis Allen and his coaching staff overall. They’ll stay in games and likely win a game or two this season that no one would think they could. Indianapolis’s TY Hilton was a big factor last year and one of Andrew Luck’s favorite targets. The Colts though want to tone down Luck’s throws and get more of a running game established weekly with Ballard and Bradshaw. That’ll be a big difference fantasy owners need to watch out for now that Bruce Arians is gone. The Colts are expected to use more two tight end packages with Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Reduction of snaps for Hilton will be expected with those formations as he is their third receiver. Teams are great at taking away a strength after seeing it multiple times. Hilton deep ball strengths are known and teams will adjust coverage on him more this season.

Backup Quarterback Fantasy Mistake

Follow@cimini Many covet grabbing a top rated player and player’s in the first six to eight rounds of fantasy football drafts. We all know that injuries run rampant for starters because they are on the field the most. Grabbing other starters in the mid to late rounds with possible upside is the area owners lack preparation on. Complaining about injuries every year to why your team fell apart gets old. Pre-plan better and execute proper acquisitions in your entire fantasy draft. If a GM of a team became lackadaisical with their mid to late round draft picks, you’d see it on the field. Turnover of those draft picks would be evident. When it’s time to depend on those young athletes there is no one to properly do so, and the team morale dips. You’re in charge of your fantasy team, and it can’t all be revamped through a trade or the waiver wire. Josh Freeman is a fantasy quarterback that likely went undrafted in a large portion of drafts (Available in 63% of Yahoo Leagues). Freeman is a quarterback that I believe is going into 2013 vastly underrated. Everyone is high on Doug Martin, and the Buccaneers receivers in Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. A simple premise would lead you to believe that Freeman could and should bounce back in 2013. He is in the second year with this Buccaneers core group and offense. A running game is supposed to open up the passing attack—and Martin is projected to be a top three to five running back. If Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams build upon last year—as they should—who is going to be a beneficiary of their success? Josh Freeman A lot of people believe Freeman is not the guy Schiano wants to back, and feel Freeman fits the old Jason Campbell mold. Solid but not good enough to garner a starting position in the NFL. Wait a minute. Just a few seasons ago Freeman quelled that speculation with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Even last year his touchdown totals were not bad with 27. That total ranked him 7th in the NFL for touchdown passes. Sure his interceptions at seventeen were higher than people would like, but the fact is, Freeman can throw the football. I do not believe the Buccaneers will opt to bench Freeman in favor of Glennon. If they do it’s going to be much later in the season, when the Buccaneers are clearly out of playoff contention. The potential is there for Freeman to have a bright season and surprise some folks like he did a few seasons ago. We’re not talking about a quarterback I’d expect you to draft as a starter. Freeman is a backup fantasy quarterback just being overlooked. Do you really want Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and several other quarterbacks drafted as backups over Freeman? All of the quarterbacks I just mentioned have shaky running back situations—in fact only Rivers has one that should be decent but has been tabbed rightfully as injury prone and inconsistent. Freeman may not cut his interceptions down dramatically, but a rise in touchdown passes could offset that. I’ll re-state that he threw 24 touchdowns in his first full year as starter, and then 27 last year under a new offense. You’d think the next step would be to reach darn close to thirty touchdown passes. He is in a contract year as well, with the burden of performing well on his shoulders. The veterans in the NFL are well established and then there is the budding talent of youth that has stormed the league. Guys like Josh Freeman are being overlooked far too much. He has better fantasy caliber than quite a few fantasy backup quarterbacks that were drafted over him. I don’t expect the Yahoo fantasy ownership numbers to be below 75-80% for far too long. In fact, I’ll boldly state that Freeman is one of the biggest percentage leapers from non-rosters before the NFL season to being an addition by week four.

Week One NFL Team Rankings

Follow@cimini Rankings tend to give fans hope before the season starts. Week by week I’ll profile rankings based on performance and where teams are projecting. Going into week one the top tier teams hypothetic ally should be relevant most of the season----only if things worked out so smooth. Obviously large shifts will happen it’s the nature of the sport. Take a peek at where your team falls before week one of the NFL season begins. 1. San Francisco- The NFC Conference Championship two years ago and Super Bowl last season. The last stop for this team would be a championship. 2. Denver Broncos- They’ll have more struggles than people think 3. Atlanta- More pieces are in place. Steven Jackson should boost this offense significantly 4. Seattle- I’ll have to see how Russ Wilson responds in his second season before rating the Seahawks higher 5. Houston- They’ll likely race to another fast pace record but can they do anything in the playoffs? 6. New England 7. New Orleans 8. Green Bay 9. Cincinnati 10. Baltimore 11. Washington 12. Chicago 13. Dallas 14. NY Giants 15. Pittsburgh 16. Indianapolis Colts 17. St. Louis 18. Tampa Bay 19. Kansas City 20. Carolina Panthers 21. Arizona Cardinals 22. Miami Dolphins 23. Minnesota Vikings 24. Detroit Lions 25. San Diego 26. Philadelphia 27. Tennessee Titans 28. Cleveland Browns 29. Jacksonville 30. Oakland Raiders 31. Buffalo Bills 32. NY Jets

Fantasy Start/Sit Em’ in Baltimore vs Denver

Follow@cimini NFL football kickoff is just three days away. The return of America’s favorite sport features Baltimore vs Denver. The pair had one of the more dramatic finishes in the 2013 playoffs that catapulted the Ravens as eventual champs. It will be the third time since December that the teams have played against each other. Thursday games are always tricky for fantasy owners. It’s a fact that last year’s Thursday Night NFL games sailed under the total in eight of ten divisional games. Ones that featured non-divisional matchups—such as Thursday nights’ game will- were vice-versa. Totals ran past the number. That’s a shot of confidence for any Broncos and Ravens fantasy owners, as the total sits at 48. I’d expect that to keep climbing before Thursday’s kickoff. There are lingering questions about both defenses. What else is new? Joe Flacco carried the Ravens offense with a down defense last year and will look to do the same in 2013. Peyton Manning has been doing it his whole career. If preseason football is an indicator slightly of issues, I’d get the flag waving for the bull’s attention. Both defenses struggled against mediocre quarterbacks. That should only rise against the prolific quarterbacks in Joe Flacco and Peyton Manning. Even with Flacco having to adjust without Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin. The hurry up offense is another variable to consider for Thursday’s game. Denver will run it and look to get the home crowd fired up early in the first quarter. With the hurry up offense, batted balls or quick reads can become troublesome. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Raven defender jump a route for a pick six. It won’t hinder Manning for the entire game, but veteran quarterbacks are always susceptible to the pick six. With skills diminishing what they’ve seen in the past and could do, is trickier to the eye early in the season (Manning struggled with this last year). Offensively this is a juggernaut game for fantasy owners. It’s an automatic to start all the core players at the quarterback and wide receiver positions on both teams. With Wes Welker getting his debut as a Bronco you can expect the Broncos to force feed him the ball early. Just re-tally Welker’s stats from New England and pencil them in. They’re as automatic as a free throw from Steve Kerr. One receiver may take a hit will be Eric Decker. Sit him this week if you have better options. If you’re willing to settle for around four catches for fifty to sixty yards than play him. An area Baltimore Ravens fans don’t want to admit but was there, is the Ravens ineffectiveness to stop the run. The Broncos do not have a top tier backfield, which makes things shaky for fantasy owners. At this point no one drafted Ronnie Hillman or Montee Ball as their RB1. Unless you’re in a flex conundrum I would not even think twice about inserting either. Stick with the first two backs you drafted for week one. Ball or Hillman can help fill cracks in your lineup if injuries come up. Furthermore, Hillman did not do anything to pad his stats in two games against Baltimore last year. He ran for thirty two yards on fifteen carries in December, and in the playoffs had a meager 3.8 yards per carry average. For Baltimore the fantasy questions linger on to start Flacco or not. He is typically a bubble starter like Eli Manning or Big Ben. Some fantasy owners choose to draft two quarterbacks late and work with a rotation each week, sort of like USC this year. If you’re an owner in that situation I think this a good week to start Flacco. The score is going to be high in this game, and Flacco is not going to want to back down. Champ Bailey just returned to the practice field Monday. I’m afraid the Broncos organization may be leaning on Bailey a bit to heavily, and did not have the guts to part ways like the Packers did with Charles Woodson. There will be opportunities for Flacco to utilize his great deep ball several times in this game. Torrey Smith will be the recipient of one, and do not count out Jacoby Jones. Both should be in your lineups this week. Smith your WR2 and Jones your WR3 or flex option. I’d even consider inserting Ed Dickson. The name on the back of the jersey does not mean anything to Flacco. He favors his tight ends and with the Broncos weak link in the secondary , they’ll be susceptible over the middle after a few deep ball connections from Flacco. Overall the only flaw of a non-starter would be the Broncos tight ends, running backs, and too much uncertainty on how the Broncos are going to spread the ball with all their weapons. That hurts Decker for this week. Have a go and give the green light to the Ravens and Broncos players in your fantasy lineups. Any fantasy questions or handicapping questions I can be reached instantly @cimini on twitter.

Pondering Early Season Trade Offers

Follow@cimini You’ve programmed your smart phone to receive even more enhancements during the football season. You want to be in-tune to injuries, live games, stats, and the all-important fantasy trade offers that come your way. Fantasy drafts are underway and the furious analytics of teams follow suit. Trade offers are going to come your way early and often. Upgrading now or later is the main question. After all you want to field the most favorable team possible in the small fantasy season of 13 to 14 regular season games. Is it better to listen to offers now and realistically ponder completing them? Or should you take a wait and see approach? That’s a tough spot for a lot of fantasy owners. I hear fantasy sports shows with owners confused on what to do. More than likely if you’re being offered a three to four player swap---the other owner is trying to swindle you and boost his team right before the season. You have to be a conscious fantasy mind or all you’re going to do is weaken the league by giving power to a certain team. If an owner sees that you’ve even considered going down the road of a trade longer than you should, he’ll be right back in your ear in no time. He knows that you’ve waited longer than other owners would pondering a trade of sorts. Similar to chess, your weak decision is going to expose you down the road. Never give another owner the mindset that “you’re thinking about it”. Hold your own and veto or submit a counter offer. Look at his team and see how much your players would benefit his overall team. More importantly you need to know if the players you’ll receive will boost your team in the long run. Anxious owners get sucked in to the hype of a trade. Belief that you’re getting the better end of the stick is a novice idea. Time and time again that early season trade could be the end doing of your season before it even starts. You’ve drafted your roster of fifteen or so players for a reason. Why would you give up three to four players in an alleged mega-deal before the season even starts? Don’t. Instead if you feel your team is lacking in a certain position utilize your league’s tools. All leagues have an area of a trading block where you can notate either player you’re willing to part with, or make owners aware of a position you’re in need of. This will put some thought into the sub-conscious mind-sets of the league owners. Even if they do not pull the trigger on an offer now, they may after the first game or two. Make the league owners have impatience not you. Data from last season is no way to facilitate a trade. On the field results and current data is the way to go. Consider how the NFL does trades before the season. They’re typically minute trades that are beneficial for an area with a key injury or to upgrade depth where they’ve cut a player due to poor performance. Almost never is a blockbuster deal done before the season. So do not do a three to four player swap now It’s no secret that the waiver wire is where the biggest gains of a fantasy season happen. Securing one or two key waiver wire additions can be all the world to a fantasy team. Most of the time a significant impact waiver wire player is someone that’s going to be a top fantasy pick in next year’s draft. Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin the III last season, and Cam Newton the year before are just a few names that ring a bell. I’m not saying not to do trades’ an entire season. It’s beneficial in several ways. There is just a time and place when to dive in on the move.

Go For The Fade

When it’s red zone time most people want to gravitate to the coaches inserting their power back in I formation. With the rise of quarterbacks statistically throwing the football more, there are other key red zone stats to look out for. Big tall targets are a quarterbacks best friend inside the five yard line. Knowing the tallest receivers in the NFL that are likely to be thrown a fade route, is yet another key stat you should know going into your fantasy football drafts. The fade route is one of the most common throws on the goal line. Seemingly every team knows it’s coming, but teams just can’t stop it. The reason why is because of the height advantage and leaping ability with a wide receiver over the smaller defensive back. That and the quarterback and receiver have worked on the route countless times. It’s a timing route that the receiver and quarterback have a spot in mind before the ball is even snapped. All the receiver has to do is go up and get it. Here are some guys you should keep in mind for the fade route. Obvious names such as Calvin Johnson, Fitz, Bryant, Colston, Jackson, and Dwayne Bowe I’ll keep off this list. Mohammed Sanu Sanu had his ups and downs as a rookie a year ago for the Bengals. It looks like he has overcome some of his struggles and will be the second receiver for the Bengals this year. He is a tall target and has already had a nice fade route touchdown catch with Andy Dalton in the preseason. Attention is coming AJ Green’s way for the third straight season, and will keep things open for Sanu in the red zone. Mike Williams Mike is not necessarily the tallest receiver, but he is a touchdown gobbler in red zone. He could be having a horrific game, and then have his one catch for six yards and a touchdown. That’s what makes Williams a different type of tier two wide receiver. He has done it many of times where his catches and yards may not be there in a certain game, but he makes up for it with a meaningful six point touchdown catch for you. Justin Blackmon When he returns from suspension Blackmon should and will be a commodity for fantasy owners. His physique and abilities is what made him a top draft pick a year ago out of Oklahoma State. I actually think he’ll still come close to his numbers from a year ago even with a four game suspension. Golden Tate A fade throw might not be how Russ Wilson looks for Tate, but the two have a knack for connecting in the red zone. Tate had seven touchdowns last year, including a couple of big game winners. A deep ball catch against the Patriots and the replacement referee’s jump ball notoriety catch. At 5’10 the Seahawks work and look for Tate as if he was 6’3. Malcolm Floyd The red zone is still Antonio Gates’ but age and loss of speed mean that others can and will have a chance to still Gates thunder. Floyd has filled that role somewhat over the past few years, but the Chargers are still looking for that Vincent Jackson type. If healthy Floyd, at 6’4, is still the primary receiver to have the best opportunity. Jon Baldwin His role in San Francisco and how he develops is the key here. The Chiefs obviously did not like his development so sent him for another receiver in AJ Jenkins. With Michael Crabtree out and Anquan Boldin aging, Baldwin may get a chance to replant his NFL steps and take ahold of an opportunity. In college he was dominant at Pittsburgh, and has the size at 6’4 is a quarterback’s best friend. Alshon Jeffrey Knowing the lingering effects of Brandon Marshall’s hip injury will be a high indicator of what Jeffrey’s season will look like. If Marshall is hindered by the injury mentally and physically on the field, it will give Jeffrey’s a prime chance to have a breakout season. Trestman’s new offense is expected to be fantasy friendly, and Cutler should look Jeffrey’s way plenty of times.