Week Three Automatics/Don’t Do Its

Follow@cimini Kansas City and Philadelphia kickoff week three. Notjustagame.com has your automatic starters and don’t do it’s from players that garner extra thinking before inserting or benching in your fantasy football lineups.

Automatics

Alex Smith Smith has done enough with his legs and arm to be a borderline fantasy backup quarterback. If there was an opportunity for Smith to solidify himself it is this week. Philadelphia’s defense struggled poorly in the preseason and it has carried over to the first two games of the regular season. Philip Rivers Sometimes a name gives more positive attention to a team than it should. I think that’s the case for Greg Williams and the Titans defense. For the first two weeks they faced Big Ben and Matt Schaub. Schaub has shown to be a second half quarterback the first two weeks of the year, and we all know the issues going on in Pittsburgh. Rivers on the other hand has played well in both of San Diego’s games. Rivers seems to be meshing well with his new head coach and offensive coordinator in Ken Whisenhunt. Look for San Diego to continue calling proper plays and Rivers to deliver solid stats. DeAngelo Williams Carolina is catching a lot of negativity for their sluggish finishes to games. But it is nowhere near how poor the Giants have played. After Knowshown Moreno gashed the Giants defense, you can expect Williams to continue that success Sunday. Then maybe the Panthers will try to open up the passing game with Cam Newton. Joique Bell When given the opportunity Bell has flourished. He’ll have a chance to crack the top eight fantasy backs this week going up against the Washington Redskins poor defense. What’s good about Bell is he matches his yards with touchdowns with his chances on the field. Vincent Jackson To propel Josh Freeman out of his misery and back to the capable quarterback he is, the Buccaneers are going to need to force feed the ball to Jackson. There is nothing wrong with that as Jackson has proved he can be targeted and get the Buccaneers offense rolling. Look for Tampa Bay to revamp their offensive strategy and let Freeman gun it down the field against the Patriots this week. Jackson and Mike Williams should both be top twenty fantasy wideouts this week. Harry Douglas Matt Ryan is a gunslinger and is heading to Miami to deliver the Dolphins their first loss. Miami is a pressure style defense that thrives off of sacks. They were able to get after Andrew Luck and Brandon Weeden to propel the Fins to victory the first two weeks of the season. This week Miami’s defense will take a step back against a quick release quarterback such as Matt Ryan. Douglas will continue his spurt of yardage but with an added touchdown. Mohammed Sanu Sanu offers a low risk high reward, and I think he is one of the sleepers still left on a ton of waiver wires in leagues. Green Bay’s off to a hot start offensively but if it were not for the way Aaron Rodgers has played, their poor pass defense would be a hot topic. They’ve given up a ton of yards to RG3 and Colin Kaepernick in the first two weeks of the season, and are prone to giving up the big play. Expect Andy Dalton to look in Sanu’s direction for blown coverages off of extensive help by Green Bay on the other side to AJ Green. Others: Jason Witten, Chris Givens, James Jones, Danny Woodhead, Santana Moss, Reuben Randle, Kyle Williams, Terrelle Pryor, Cecil Shorts, Emmanuel Sanders.

Don’t Do It

Carson Palmer New Orleans defense has been a force to start the year, and it has done so with blitzes. Carson Palmer is one of those hot and cold quarterbacks that will be tested against the Saints blitz this week. With Larry Fitzgerald not at 100 percent and Palmer still getting acclimated to the team, I would watchout for one of Palmer’s patented three to four turnover type of games. Arizona has notoriously played poor on the road and great at home. Drew Brees should also want revenge after losing to a Max Hall led Arizona Cardinals team in 2010. Tom Brady There comes a time when even the great quarterbacks struggle. Brady was irate the entire game against the Jets and had one of his worst completion percentage games as a quarterback (48%). Sometimes extended time following a game is good. This time coming off of a Thursday game with a player of Brady’s caliber is going to be a bad sign. His young receivers aren’t going to flourish against Revis and company. That may force Brady to press more than he would like. These two teams scrimmaged against each other in August when the Brady knee injury rumors ran rampant, and also played a preseason game against each other. This will be a much lower scoring game than fantasy football owners of Tom Brady would like to see. Russ Wilson Seattle’s offense is a bit different when you’re preparing to witness a blowout. Everyone knows Jacksonville has about as small a chance to win this game as Seattle did against New Orleans as a 7-9 division winner; wait the Seahawks did win. Anyways Seattle blows teams out with defense and a strong running game. Even last week’s 26 point win over San Francisco did not feature too much from Wilson. They’ll pound away at Jacksonville’s atrocious run defense and keep things basic with Wilson. Daryl Richardson Dallas has changed their ways on defense and has utilized it’s speed for relentless blitzes the first two weeks of the season. St. Louis looks to be balking on their move of promoting Richardson and letting Steven Jackson go. Richardson has averaged a poor average of just 3.3 yards per carry in two games. He is starting to look like a true 7th round pick and won’t have any success against the Cowboys this weekend. DeMarco Murray I’ve recommended sitting Murray for quite awhile now. In PPR leagues you may be able to get away with plugging him in your lineup. Standard leagues it shouldn’t even be thought of until you see consistency in the Cowboys ground game. Murray’s ineffectiveness might not be all on him, but Dallas isn’t showing the balance of pass/run to seek Murray as a starter. Though Dallas has been much better in pass protection, run blocking has been woeful. Alfred Morris Without the read option Morris’s stats are tumbling. Owners that strictly pay attention to weekly stats need to watch game footage and determine for themselves that Morris is declining with RG3’s poor performances. Detroit’s defense may be wreckless with penalties but they’re stout against the run. They shut down Adrian Peterson after he broke a long touchdown, and nullified Arizona from any success last week. They’ll do the same to Alfred Morris and force the Redskins to win through the air. Torrey Smith With Ray Rice likely out that is just another blow to an offense that has been dealt with blow after blow. That now leaves Torrey Smith as the main weapon on the Ravens offense. I’m not sold that he can handle that role. Just a year ago he had Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta alongside him. With Rice and Jacoby Jones out that is going to hinder Smith’s performances over the next few weeks. Look for Marlon Brown to benefit from the extra attention Smith gets. Mike Wallace Tannehill has looked terrific, but I think this week against Atlanta is going to be a true test of the Dolphins offense. Cleveland and the Colts bottom ten secondary aren’t going to compare to Atlanta, who will force the issue greatly with the way they can score. Miami got Wallace involved with some nifty plays early against the Colts. Atlanta should be able to take those quick routes away and force Tannehill to look in Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson’s direction. Others To Sit: Joe Flacco, Julian Edelman, Rod Streater, Rashard Mendenhall, Josh Gordon, and James Starks

Team Rankings Post Week Two

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1. Seattle Seahawks- I was one that gave the 49ers a probable chance to upset the Seahawks. Boy was I wrong. I still think there flaws on offense might come to bite them more than people would expect this season.
2. Denver Broncos- Manning is off to his typical red hot regular season start with a defense that hasn’t had to worry about tight games yet.
3. San Francisco- A regular season loss can be exaggerated at times, especially early in the season. San Francisco will be where they’ve been the last few years once the playoffs begin.
4. Green Bay Packers- As Stephen A Smith says, Aaron Rodgers is a baaaaaad man. His throws and how he is spreading the football around are incredible. They’ll get a tough test this week at Cincinnati.
5. Atlanta Falcons- Injuries are hitting this team early but they have enough talent to sustain through the injury bug. People worried about the Falcons without Steven Jackson just need to refer back to the Michael Turner days. Atlanta got it done with a back that should have been out of the league last year.
6. Houston Texans- Their carousel ways of coming back to win are not what people expected as heavy favorites in both games. This week is a true test for both Baltimore and Houston to see where their teams are at.
7. Chicago Bears- Though the Bears have also came back in their first two games of the season, it has been done in a different way. They’ve fought through turnovers and still managed to grab two wins over quality teams.
8. New England- Those thinking the Patriots are going to resort back to easily blowing out teams are mistaken. They’re downgraded at running back and receiver and it’s going to take patience to win every week.
9. New Orleans- The Saints have won two close games to start the year. They’ve done so by not looking as proficient offensively as we are accustomed to seeing. Will the defense give or will the offense get back to its old ways?
10. Cincinnati- With the Ravens still figuring out things, the Bengals could be ready to leap past the entire division. They’ll need a second receiver to step up to divert attention away from AJ Green if they’re going to do so.
11. Baltimore
12. Philadelphia
13. Miami
14. Dallas
15. Kansas City Chiefs
16. Indianapolis
17. NY Giants
18. St. Louis Rams
19. Arizona Cardinals
20. San Diego Chargers
21. Detroit Lions
22. Minnesota Vikings
23. Pittsburgh Steelers
24. Tennessee Titans
25. Washington Redskins
26. Carolina Panthers
27. NY Jets
28. Buffalo Bills
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Oakland Raiders
31. Cleveland Browns
32. Jacksonville Jaguars

Fourth Quarter Killers For Week Three

Follow@cimini If your diving on your bench and clawing for fantasy points for week three, an area to always look to is players that may be in games that are routs. The value of garbage fourth quarter fantasy points is always there when a team is not giving a concerted effort on defense in the latter parts of games. From a handicapping standpoint it allows backdoor covers to happen. In the world of fantasy sports it gives you an extra six to ten fantasy points to pad to your total. Here is a look at player’s that should rise up this week as fourth quarter killers. Chad Henne Henne is not necessarily starting quarterback material. But he has had some big games when you would least expect it. A few years ago against the Patriots he threw for over 400 yards, and last year as 15 point underdogs against the Texans he threw for over 350 yards and four touchdowns. He has done it before and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Henne have a solid game Sunday. As twenty point underdogs Jacksonville has to be going into Seattle with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Their coach is the former defensive coordinator of the Seahawks and may have a few plays to expose the aggressive Seattle secondary. Andrew Luck Luck may throw for over 400 yards in this Sunday’s game against the 49ers. The high yards may equate to results Eli Manning has had over the last two weeks when he has been pressed to force the issue. The lack of running game from Indianapolis is going to put a huge burden on Luck. Expect the 49ers to get a ton of pressure on Luck and force him into mistakes early. By the time the latter part of the third quarter occurs, Indy, will be down a considerable amount of points, and forced to resort to Luck throwing the ball near fifty times. Vincent Jackson I expect the Buccaneers to keep staying in games and playing tough as they have against the Jets and Saints. Jackson’s last game against the Patriots as a Charger he had ten catches for over 170 yards and two touchdowns. For Josh Freeman to get his confidence back he is going to need a big game from Jackson. Tampa Bay’s defense is not the problem and may create opportunities for Freeman as they did last week against the Saints. TY Hilton If there is an area teams have attacked early this season against the 49ers it has been their secondary. In nickel packages, Nhamdi Asomugha has been exposed like he did as an Eagle. When TY Hilton comes into spread packages offensively for the Colts, they’ll be gearing to pick on the veteran Asomugha. Pierre Garcon When defenses let up, speed kills even more. For Garcon he has racked up a solid two games to start the season off of second half performances. Washington’s woes start with a defense that has been scorched by the Eagles and Green Bay. Thing don’t get easier this week against the Detroit Lions and Matthew Stafford. If DeSean Jackson and all three Green Bay wide receivers can have mega days, how on Earth can the Redskins attempt to contain Calvin Johnson? Look for Garcon and the Redskins to be trailing yet again in the second half. Cecil Shorts Shorts is the best asset to a Jacksonville offense struggling right now. He’ll have a tough time against a Seattle secondary that does not give up many yards. In order to achieve some success Shorts will have to utilize his speed and ability to run after the catch. Opportunities will present themselves for Shorts in the fourth quarter. Others: Andy Dalton, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Big Ben, Carson Palmer, Michael Floyd

Upgrades/Downgrades For Roster Flex, Bench Depth, and Borderline Starters

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Upgrades

Ryan Tannehill Reggie Bush left and so did tackle Jake Long. Concerns that Tannehill would regress without a strong back and his blindside protection are murmurs that have been stomped. Tannehill can hold his own and even though he is getting sacked, he is making the right throws. He may not be a top ten fantasy quarterback yet, but his accuracy is in the top ten. His confidence seems to be blossoming and the team as a whole may be ready to rise with him. Philip Rivers In week one Jon Gruden showcased on Monday Night Football how Rivers is sliding better in the pocket and holding the football with two hands when under pressure. Ken Whisenhunt worked on the little things with Rivers for limiting his turnovers. A vast difference is the speed in which Rivers is getting the football out. Designed plays are called and Rivers is hitting his reads with acceleration. People forget that Rivers was the head of this division for years before Manning arrived. Jay Cutler The errors are still there by Cutler but you have to love the way he finds a way to shake them off. He had a critical fumble for a touchdown and another interception in the endzone off of a tipped pass Sunday. Besides those drives the Bears moved with tremendous ease. It’s happening because Cutler isn’t getting drilled and knocked down every pass play like he was the last four years. Cutler is back into the role of a viable backup instead of a questionable one. DeAngelo Williams If there was one sign of hope for the Panthers it was that Williams had a solid game on the ground against the Bills. He didn’t fumble and ran the ball over twenty times. Carolina gets to face off against the Giants in a rematch of last years Thursday blowout. All Carolina has to do is figure out how to finish games. After Knowshown Moreno ran wild on the Giants it may be Williams turn this week. Knowshown Moreno Moreno was drafted high a few years ago but the injury bag tagged him for a few years. Denver is a team that loves to run the football but with their crowded backfield it’ll be unlikely that Moreno gets a full time load like he did Sunday. Moreno is perfect trade bait for an owner wanting to sell him high. Especially if he follows up with another decent week. Michael Floyd Floyd is showing enough in the Cardinals passing attack to be considered an every week fantasy WR3. The Cardinals are going to have a bottom tier running game again this year, so that means more opportunities for the Cardinals receivers. Working with Larry Fitzgerald seems to have improved Floyd’s attitude and on the field performance. Chris Givens A majority of Givens success Sunday came in the second half when the Rams had to abandon the ground attack and attempt a comeback via the air. That’s when they found success with Givens who continues to flourish with his amazing yards per catch average. Last year’s sixteen yards a catch was not a fluke. The Rams just need to figure out how to proportion the offense to Givens with newcomers Jared Cook and Tavon Austin in the fold. James Jones It’s not a question of which of the three Green Bay receivers is going to excel on a given week. It’s a question on who is going to have an out of the world week over a solid week. This set of Green Bay receivers has been on the roster for quite some time in Green Bay. It’s crazy to say but this group is better than an old Donald Driver and Greg Jennings on it. All the receivers know they are going to get the football and seem to be thriving knowing that. A role that neither Jordy Nelson, Jones, or Randall Cobb were in on a weekly basis two years ago.

Downgrades

RG3 If people want to say he is giving them enough fantasy points with his arm so be it. The truth of the matter is that RG3 is a lost soul on the field right now. His mechanics are off and you can tell he does not want to be the pocket passer the Redskins are making him be. Unless the Redskins let him test out his legs it’s going to be a long year in which Griffin does not last on the field. Josh Freeman I had high hopes for Freeman being a fantasy relevant backup. After two games of watching the Buccaneers I’m ready to say I was wrong in that department. Freeman needs new life elsewhere and fast. It seems each time he steps on the field now his skills and the Buccaneers offense are deteriorating away like the decay just to the north of them in Jacksonville. Daniel Thomas Thomas’s trend from how he contributed as a rookie to last year and now is why rookie contracts exist. Thomas will play out the remainder of this year but has set himself up to make life for his agent difficult in the offseason. Most backs that are in a number two role for three years have an impact a handful of games a year. For Thomas that is not the case, as he is right up there with Mike Bush as a back that’s just there for relief to rest the starter for a few plays. Owners of Miller that handcuffed him with Thomas should rid themselves of a roster spot now and improve in another position. Mike Williams It looks like the boomerang success and failure of Williams may land hit it’s spin on a down year. It’s not going to be all his fault but anyone can see that the Buccaneers likely will be replacing Freeman as starter soon. That would input a quarterback in Glennon who is not ready in my mind to grab the role. High amounts of yards were never Williams asset in fantasy football. It’s his touchdown value. With the Buccaneers scoring just one touchdown in week one and two offensively, there is going to be limited opportunities for Williams. Aaron Dobson and Kembrell Thompkins New England has had an unusual knack of being able to plug players into their system. Enough so that everyone figured that Dobson and Thompkins would automatically have instant success in it. That has not been the case and both have to be downgraded to bench depth status or waiver wire drops if you have solid bench depth. Tom Brady will not put up with the drops and issues at hand. New England likely will be trying to pry for a new receiver if Danny Amendola stays off the field for a significant amount of time.

Fantasy Focus for Thursday: Chiefs vs Eagles

Follow@cimini Each week I like to profile Thursday’s games to give fantasy owners some clarity in setting their lineups early. Thursday’s game profiles the Eagles potent offense squared against its former coach in Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Reid has been known for his unbalance in the ground attack vs the air attack. Will he have the Chiefs ready to play Chip Kelly ball or can he force the tempo to his side and slow things down with Alex Smith’s playbook? Quarterbacks Philadelphia’s defense has reverted quickly back to its old lay down and get thrashed ways. In their last six quarters they have given up yards and points galore. San Diego attacked the defense exactly like a college team does against potent offenses. Short quick throws and mixed in runs that eat the clock. Philadelphia could not get up on any of the routes and it allotted Philip Rivers to have one of his best mistake free games in quite a while. Kansas City has the same type of offense that might be even more simplistic with the dink and dump attack. Smith also has scrambling ability that should bolster his fantasy stats for the week. Smith though will not be rated any higher than a mid range teen ranking this week. Vick, on the other hand, is a no-brainer to insert in your lineups. Kelly will find a way as he always does to develop the run or pass with his high velocity play calls. For those worried about the Chiefs currently having a top five defense don’t be. They faced the Jaguars week one and were getting torched by the Dez Bryant in the first half this past Sunday. Dallas than reverted to poor play calling that deflected away from Bryant’s involvement in the passing game. Running Backs Thursday’s game usually does not present itself as a stat filler for running backs. This week should change that with Jamaal Charles and Shady McCoy matching up. Kansas City sort of held back Charles this past Sunday against the Cowboys. Maybe it was because of the short week ahead, and they realize his value is high on the barometer against a poor Eagles team. Against Dallas he only had sixteen carries and his involvement was not it’s typical use. Shady McCoy may have a tough time against a Chiefs defense that is stout against the run. Where they struggle is in the passing game, so the Eagles will likely find McCoy out of the backfield and with quick screens to loosen the Chiefs front seven. Wide Receivers The question with the Chiefs receivers is who is next to step up. In an odd week where the Chiefs will have to pass the ball, there will be other receivers and weapons that dot the fantasy radar. Dexter McCluster is poised to breakout this week. He has been split out as wide receiver in several packaged plays. His role in the backfield has diminished but don’t be surprised if the Chiefs involve him in a few decoy plays back there. Donnie Avery is another to consider as he had a touchdown a week ago and has been getting a solid share of Alex Smith’s mediocre passing yards thus far. Owners of Dwayne Bowe are anticipating one of those monster games he used to put up two to three years ago. He should be able to get into the end zone at least once. From Philadelphia’s standpoint it’s a full go from the regulars in DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper, and Jason Avant. X-Factor: Tempo Being a short week questions will linger if Chip Kelly may slow things down or Andy Reid may extend drives. Kansas City may do so on a drive or two, but I don’t believe Andy Reid has faith in that style of football. He’ll play to win and score. For those worried about the Eagles not being rested on a short week should pay attention to how rested they should actually be. Against the Chargers they were not even on the field for twenty minutes of game action. The Chargers had the football for over forty minutes while the Eagles held it for right under twenty. The Eagles will be right back to their all out arsenal attack offensively.

Best Target to Catch Ratios from Week Two

Follow@cimini Paying attention to stats and not your fantasy points is how you can dive into your roster and decide to make necessary improvement. Each week I give a breakdown of a key category in best targets to catch results ratios from NFL players. Here is a look at who put up stellar numbers and others that did not. Julio Jones Jones ripped apart a St. Louis secondary considered strong. His biggest play came when he was lined up in the slot and the Rams failed to give the nickel back corner any help. That resulted in an eighty one yard play. Jones completed the game with eleven catches on fourteen targets. Stevie Johnson Stevie Johnson is used to playing with a different quarterback constantly. EJ Manuel may end up ending that trend for Johnson. That will allow Johnson to garner extra respect in fantasy leagues. He finished Sunday with eight catches on ten targets, including a game winning touchdown with two seconds left. Greg Jennings Jennings was in my personal dog house, but crept out momentarily after Sunday’s game. The Bears secondary is not the best at halting catches, their strong area is creating turnovers. Jennings was brought in to give Christian Ponder some confidence and comfort ability in finding a receiver to throw to. Sunday Jennings had five catches on six targets, and made the tough grabs over the middle you’d expect from the veteran. James Jones and Randall Cobb If Aaron Rodgers keeps slinging the football the way he is you might as well hand him the MVP. It’s only two games in but Rodgers nearly pulled off the upset at San Francisco, and torched the Redskins week two. James Jones enjoyed a monster game with eleven catches on twelve targets, and Randall Cobb finished the day with nine catches on ten targets. Mike Wallace Miami satisfied their well paid receiver with nine catches on eleven targets Sunday. They intermixed designed quick hot routes with also finding him on normal pass patterns. It seems that Wallace feeds off just getting the ball in any fashion possible to propel him. That’s a good sign for a Miami team starting to show strong signs. Others that did well: Greg Olsen 7 catches/8 targets, Dez Bryant 9 catches/13 targets, Eddie Royal 7 catches/8 targets, DesSean Jackson 9 catches/15 targets, Antonio Gates 8 catches/10 targets, Nate Burelson 7 catches/8 targets, Jimmy Graham 10 catches/16 targets, Cecil Shorts 8 catches/14 targets, Eric Decker 9 catches/13 targets, Julian Edelman 13 catches/18 targets

Not so Good

Tavon Austin 6 catches/12 targets, TY Hilton 6 catches/12 targets, Dwayne Bowe 4 catches/8 targets, Torrey Smith 7 catches/13 targets, DeAndre Hopkins 7 catches/13 targets, Vincent Jackson 5 catches/11 targets, Wes Welker 3 catches/8 targets, Brandon Myers 6 catches/10 targets, Anquan Boldin 1 catch/4 targets, Aaron Dobson 3 catches/10 targets, Kembrell Thompkins 2 catches/7 targets