Fantasy Football

Fourth Quarter Killers For Week Four

Tuesday, 24 September, 2013

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Rack up as many fantasy points as you can. To do so inserting some bottom tier fantasy players in poor matchups is a strategy implemented by many. Figuring out the proper players to pick for fourth quarter fantasy points can give you a leg up from a poor performing starter that week. Here are some players to take a key look at for week four.

Eli Manning
The panic button has been firmly pressed in New York, and it’s not on the NY Jets. I expect to hear the typical approach teams take when they’re losing unexpectedly. A team meeting. Grouping together is not going to help this team, it’s the personnel. One strength they still have is under center. Eli and the Giants are going to have design quicker pass plays to get their offense moving. Eli will be gunning all four quarters.

Ahmad Bradshaw
Here is a reverse of extra numbers you can get from a player with a big lead. Bradshaw and the Colts are heading to Jacksonville to face their divisional opponent that they’ve owned for years. The Colts are coming off a dominant win in San Francisco and did so with a reversal of their play calling a year ago. They ran the football well with three backs. Bradshaw did the most damage and did so in the fourth quarter. With a big lead in Jacksonville watch for Bradshaw to carry the load once again in the fourth.

Stevie Johnson
Johnson’s play has been fairly consistent to start the season. This week the Bills get another tough defense as they face the Baltimore Ravens. EJ Manuel had a rough time this past week against the Jets and may find himself in an early hole again against the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense was ferocious against the Texans and should make things difficult for the Bills offense. Expect Johnson to tally some numbers in the fourth.

Michael Floyd
Last week the Cardinals offense was stymied in New Orleans. The Cardinals continue their road trip away from home by traveling to Tampa Bay. Carson Palmer has never excelled on the road, nor have the Cardinals as a team. Which ever quarterback limits their mistakes will get their team a victory. I’m expecting the Bucs defense to hold tough at home and create some points for their offense. Palmer behind loves to sling the football and may be able to hit Floyd in the fourth for a td and extra reception yards.

Jordan Cameron
The Browns pulled out all the tricks in their victory over the Vikings. All the Browns need to do with Cameron is call his number. He is a legitimate top five fantasy tight end right now, and is a mismatch against any opposing defense. The Bengals have been terrific against the pass. With Pacman Jones recent arrest, it’ll be interesting to see how the secondary holds up. Cameron is going to get his catches. He is just too tall and a freak athlete to stop for four quarters.

Riley Cooper
Right now any opponent of Denver’s is going to find themselves in a hole quickly in less than can create turnovers. Philadelphia’s defense has been non-existent which puts even more pressure on the Eagles offense in a tough environment in Denver. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Chip Kelly yank Vick towards the end if things aren’t going well. Either way the air attack will be full throttle for the Eagles in the fourth period. DeSean Jackson tends to checkout when things aren’t going well, leaving the door open for Cooper to get some garbage stats.

Others: Chris Givens, Cecil Shorts III, DeAndre Hopkins, Ben Tate, and Pierre Garcon

Upgrades/Downgrades for Roster Flex, Bench Depth, and Borderline Starters

Tuesday, 24 September, 2013
Upgrades/Downgrades for Roster Flex, Bench Depth, and Borderline Starters Follow@cimini Do you have the guts to start demoting your personnel that’s useless? Don’t have the wait and see approach. If you’re 1-2 or 0-3 you need to be creating a plan now to get back into contention in your fantasy leagues.

Upgrades

Geno Smith Smith is going to continue to make the mistakes that cause you to gaffe out loud. Results are happening and the future seems in much better position for the Jets than it was a year ago. He has a creative element that Mark Sanchez did not have. New York seems to be calling better game plans as a result. Keep Smith stashed in deeper leagues and consider him a long term dynasty stasher in keeper leagues. Sam Bradford The Rams have been walloped early in their past two games. So why has Bradford cracked my upgrade list? His running game has been woeful the past two weeks. It can only get better. Bradford has avoided the mistakes we’ve seen him make, and seems to be growing comfortably with his new receivers. The matchup against the 49ers will be a big test for Bradford’s continued improvements in 2013. Jonathan Franklin The switch-a-roo maneuvers the Packers have had to do at running back just puts a staple of truth on the fact that running backs are devalued. They have had no problem inserting running backs. Jonathan Franklin appears to be a back that can add a different dimension to the Packers offense. The it-factor is one that any non-scout can see after limited game action. Franklin had that Sunday and should be bumped up considerably in all fantasy leagues. Giovanni Bernard The law firm in Cincinnati seems to be under new advisement from Green-Ellis to Bernard. Green-Ellis can still be counted on for tough yardage. Big plays are the contrary to what Bernard provides. You need that from your running game, and Ellis does not provide it. The Bengals seem to already be making a concerted effort to get Bernard his share of carries. Grab my NFL or College plays this week. I went 4-1 in the NFL this past week in LVH's Superbook Handicapping Contest. Currently I'm four games behind on the leaderboard after four weeks. Purchase my plays here or at kellyinvegas.com Josh Gordon Gordon was too fast for the Vikings secondary and has used that asset to become the top Cleveland Browns fantasy producer the last few seasons. The quarterback situation is not a problem for Gordon as he had a great connection with Brandon Weeden a year ago as well. Turnovers may be the only issue to worry about when Cleveland is in their opponents territory. Ryan Broyles With Nate Burelson now out with a broken arm, Broyles gets to step up in a role no one would have thought he’d be in a year ago. The loss of Burelson and last year’s third wideout, Titus Young, have opened the door for Broyles to be in a prominent role. He’ll be in a great position in one of the top offenses for passing yards in the NFL. Others: Kenbrell Thompkins, Santana Moss, Joique Bell, Ted Ginn Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, Bilal Powell, Stevie Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Darius Heyward-Bey, Cecil Shorts III, and Alshon Jeffrey.

Downgrades

Mike Vick The early bell rang on the Eagles once again. They looked splendid and ready to overtake the NFL with Chip Kelly’s dynamic offense. Only the rest of the NFL realized controlling the clock diminishes the Eagles plan in a hurry. It’s caused the offense to have a skirmish feel to it which has resulted in turnovers. Vick has been accustomed to being injury prone and one that doesn’t play well amidst adversity. This has the signs of Vick being exiled out of Philly the same way Donovan McNabb was. Christian Ponder After Sunday’s loss at home, Adrian Peterson poked a little humor into the loss starting on twitter that even his daughter was stupefied by it. The finger pointing when losses start to mount usually falls squarely on the shoulders over the quarterback and coach. Christian Ponder’s days as a Viking quarterback have been on the edge for quite awhile. He is getting zero protection from his offensive line. I believe he’ll be the next quarterback to sustain a lengthy injury because of it. Once he is out I don’t know if he’ll regain the job. Carson Palmer The same old Cardinals offensive line and running back issues are lurking its head again. There will be games that offensive guru Bruce Arians can use Palmer’s skillset to offset those issues. But it’s going to be too inconsistent to feel comfortable inserting Palmer in your fantasy lineups. Especially in road games where the Cardinals have notoriously struggled. Doug Martin Part of the blame for the Buccaneers offensive woes has to shoulder some on Doug Martin along with Josh Freeman. Martin has had a tough go and has been stifled to start the season. The former Boise State back is starting to get the predetermined label of a fantasy bust. He is quick switch back that can make up for his poor start with one great game. It needs to happen soon to propel the Buccaneers offense. For now Martin is on the fringe of a top ten fantasy back. David Wilson New York fans are not use to the performances they’re seeing from the Giants. Issues started with David Wilson’s fumbling issues week one against Dallas. Since the Giants have free falled in a new area every week. It was the offensive line this past week. If they’re not going to protect Eli, how is Wilson going to find holes? Anquan Boldin Coming into the season I was tough on Boldin in his role as a number one receiver at his age. Week one he made me eat my words, but it appears the last two weeks no 49er receiver is able to get separation in man to man coverage. Boldin is better suited as a wide receiver two with speed opposite him. If the 49ers don’t pull a trade it could be a long season for Boldin and the 49ers. Others: Josh Freeman and Matt Schaub

Post Week Three: Stretching the Field

Monday, 23 September, 2013

Post Week Three: Stretching the Field

Follow@cimini Week three is in the books and it’s time to see which player’s did the most with their receptions. Yards after the catch and stretching the field reap the big rewards in terms of fantasy points. Here is a look at player’s that had success in week three. Antonio Brown I listed Brown as a fourth quarter killer for week two. He did much more than have a stellar fourth quarter statistically. He averaged over twenty yards a catch and added to the plethora of receivers that have scorched the Bears secondary to start the season. Nate Washington Days that a Tennessee Titans quarterback throws for over 250 yards you can expect Washington’s name to dot the fantasy spectrum of top performers. Sunday, Locker had an unordinary passing day that was brought to life by Washington’s 130 yards receiving on eight of ten targets. Will Locker find confidence in his arm, or will the Titans rescale back to a basic offense yet again? Josh Gordon Returning from suspension Gordon was the biggest impact player in the game even over Adrian Peterson. Gordon’s presence allowed Brian Hoyer to rip apart the Vikings atrocious secondary. Gordon hauled ten catches for nearly fifteen yards a catch. Donnie Avery Avery had a gem of a day with over twenty yards a catch against the hapless Eagles secondary. Kansas City has a package of plays called specifically for Avery. Alex Smith doesn’t look down the field much and a lot is expected of Avery and playmaker’s such as Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster to take Smith’s short passes for big gains. Avery has small value in PPR leagues and slim to none in others. Jimmy Graham Graham was the latest tight end to join the ranks of shredding the Cardinals secondary. Jared Cook did so week one, and the Lions had some success with their tandem as well in week two. Graham is paying strong dividends for those that went against the grain and drafted him in the second round of fantasy drafts. He had two touchdowns with a near 15 yards a catch average. Nate Burelson Detroit’s loss a week ago to the Cardinals came on a fourth and four in which Burelson could not break a tackle of Tyrann Mathieu. Sunday Burelson was a difference maker in getting the Lions their second victory of the season. He had right under twenty yards a catch with six catches. With him now out due to a broken arm in a car accident, Ryan Broyles will fill in and take a bump up in fantasy leagues. Tedd Ginn Jr The Panthers have enjoyed and welcomed the edition of Ginn Jr to their receiver group. He fits in perfect and relishes his role as the third receiver. Often times a team’s third receiver is a young player trying to work his way up to the number one receiver. For Ginn Jr. he knows that is not his main goal. He is just trying to show he can be an asset as a situational receiver. For the second straight week Ginn has caught a deep throw from Newton. His catches aren’t high but he is stretching the field for the Panthers. Torrey Smith Baltimore was in total disarray as their offense tried to figure out its way without Ray Rice in the first half Sunday. A pick six defensive touchdown and special teams touchdown seemed to relax the passing attack in the second half. Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith connected on a fabulous sideline throw, and Smith finished the day with five catches for just over ninety yards receiving. Stephen Hill and Santonio Holmes The Jets resorted back to phase one of offensive 101 basics. Establish the run and the passing game will flourish. Hill and Holmes have hardly been as impactful as a Jet as they were Sunday. Limited receptions for both did not matter as Hill and Holmes received a few big pass plays from rookie Geno Smith. Holmes caught the game winner on a tough grab in which he outran the defender for a 69 yard touchdown. Cecil Shorts III Shorts was tagged as a must sit by many fantasy football analyst, in a tough matchup against the Seahawks. I had him listed as a fourth quarter killer but was impressed with the all around game Shorts had. With Justin Blackmon returning after another week, Shorts and the Jaguars overall passing attack should see vast improvement. Shorts finished Sunday with 8 catches and over 140 yards receiving.

Best Target to Catch Ratios From Week Three

Monday, 23 September, 2013

Best Target to Catch Ratios From Week Three

Follow@cimini Did you have Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks in your starting lineups Sunday? Any Giants for that matter? Ouch, the low output of points blasted on your fantasy leagues front webpage will be a stinger for a day or two. Here is a look at receivers that fared well with their quarterbacks and others that disappointed. Alshon Jeffrey Though Jeffrey’s has yet to have a prototype fantasy breakout game, signs are in the making. Cutler is not as radar locked on Brandon Marshall as he was last season, and that is allowing for Jeffrey’s to grow in the Bear’s offense. He had seven catches on eight targets Sunday. Jordy Nelson You can visualize Trent Dilfer’s laser projector for his weekly segment of “Dilfer’s Dimes” pairing Nelson and Aaron Rodgers every week. They have arguably the best connection of knowing what each other is thinking when a play breaks down. Nelson’s toe tapping sideline grabs and Rodgers spots of the football are becoming masterful. While the Packers offense was held in check Sunday, Nelson had a solid day catching eight of nine targets. Danny Woodhead Woodhead continues to be a pest for opposing fantasy teams. He isn’t doing much damage running the football but is a high volume receptions back each week for the Chargers. Philip Rivers loves his outlet backs and has made Woodhead a fantasy commodity. Woodhead had another seven catches on eight targets against the Titans Sunday. Santana Moss His age continues to be a question each year, but Moss remains a strong presence as a Redskin. With how much the Redskins are throwing the football each week, Moss’s value will be much higher than it has the last two to three years. Moss had seven catches on nine targets Sunday. Darrius Heyward-Bey I listed Bey on waiver wire pickups this week and think he’ll have a few big games ahead of him in upcoming weeks. He is running great routes and catching some tough throws from Andrew Luck. Bey finished Sunday with five catches on five targets. Look for the Colts to increase Bey’s role in the near future. They have yet to release him on any deep ball throws yet. Sidney Rice Rice finished Sunday with five catches on seven targets. He made the most of those five catches with two touchdowns. It seems that both Rice and Golden Tate are starting to develop in better progression than they did last year with Russ Wilson. Health will remain a lingering factor in Rice’s continued progress. Donnie Avery The Eagles seem to make it easy for receivers. Donnie Avery is the latest wideout that can attest to that. He had a field day catching all seven passes his way for over 140 yards receiving. Continuation of this success by Avery should not cross your minds. Avery has been around the NFL long enough to know his true fantasy value. So has Alex Smith and his dink and dump arm. Others: Antonio Brown 9 catches/13 targets, Nate Washington 8 catches/10 targets, Jimmy Graham 9 catches/15 targets, Pierre Garcon 8 catches/13 targets, DeAndre Hopkins 6 catches/7 targets, Julio Jones 9 catches/12 targets, Brandon Gibson 6 catches/8 targets, Golden Tate 5 catches/8 targets Players that did not fare well: Kenbrell Thompkins 3 catches/7 targets, Vincent Jackson 3 catches/6 targets, Marques Colston 5 catches/8 targets, Steve Smith 3 catches/7 targets, Victor Cruz 3 catches/8 targets, Hakeem Nicks zero catches/1 target, Stevie Johnson 6 catches/13 targets, Robert Woods 2 catches/10 targets, Kyle Williams 2 catches/6 targets, DeSean Jackson 3 catches/8 targets

Post Week Three Waiver Wire

Monday, 23 September, 2013

Post Week Three Waiver Wire

Follow@cimini It’s time to scour those waiver wires. Bye weeks are upcoming and some of you might be in desperate situations for personnel. Take a peak on who to seek for your waiver wire deadlines this week.

Quarterbacks

Jake Locker Anytime you can be a threat with your legs as a quarterback you have a shot at being fantasy worthy. Locker’s arm is a whole different story but he outperformed many top tier quarterbacks Sunday with near 300 yards passing. His consistent fantasy threat will be with his legs. His creativity to scramble helped keep drives alive and opened up the passing game a bit. One Week Wonders: Geno Smith

Running Backs

Jonathan Franklin In a bizarre fate of Green Bay running backs the mystery of falling backs continues. I found it awfully weird how Franklin hardly received any carries in preseason, and had zero in the first two weeks and one quarter. Sunday that changed due to injury and Franklin made the most of his time on the field. Packers fans won’t be happy with his fumble but fantasy owners can only be pleased with his stats. Bilal Powell Powell had the biggest surprise day of any back. New York’s running game had been abysmal last year and to start this season. Powell though had a surge for the ground attack against the Bills, which allotted the Jets to use play action passes for some big plays. Now for Powell can he keep his legs churning week to week with a high amount of carries (27 Sunday)? LeGarrette Blount This isn’t an immediate waiver wire pickup. If you’re in a position to take a flier for potential, than Blount is an option to test for a few weeks. Stevan Ridley has hit a wall of sorts and the lack of rushing attack has been part of the blame for the Patriots lighter scoring performances. Blount did okay in fill in duty Sunday, and is just a few years removed from his breakout rookie campaign. Once Shane Vereen comes back though Blount’s share of the carries should diminish to where they were at the start of the season. Jacquizz Rodgers Atlanta’s had no problem moving the football. Their woes in scoring position have cost them two games that could have easily been decided with one extra touchdown. They’ll have to get that corrected either by advancing the running game or getting targets to the right people. Rodgers may see an increase in carries even with a healthy Steven Jackson, as the Falcons look for long term protection if they make the playoffs.

Tight Ends

Andrew Quarless Quarless is a familiar name in the fantasy football world as he has had to fill in before when Jermichael Finley went down a few seasons ago. Based on the severity of Finley’s concussion Quarless should see some field action once again. Keep on eye and see if Finley’s status is doubtful before picking up Quarless. A Packers tight end is an automatic upgrade if you do not have one of the top six to eight tight ends.

Wide Receivers

Sidney Rice Jacksonville’s secondary continued to be woeful Sunday and that led to Rice having a big day. Yardage is something we can tend to expect Rice to be fantasy worthy once in awhile. He seems to be healthier now and if he can find the end zone more frequently he can be a welcomed edition to fantasy rosters. Santonio Holmes Disregard Stephen Hill completely. If the Jets are going to keep throwing the football and have established success, it’ll come on the hands of Holmes. If Holmes is back to the capabilities the Jets expected of him when they signed him, than Hill can be a deeper league fantasy asset. One thing to love about Geno is he looks to throw the football down the field and take chances. Mohammed Sanu I’ve listed Sanu for a few weeks now and will continue to do so. He is underrated in an offense that has a lot of growing to do still this year. Sanu’s size makes him a prime target to continue to improve week to week and blossom for fantasy playoff weeks. He did have a key drop Sunday but had a solid day otherwise. Josh Gordon Gordon’s availability in 30 percent of Yahoo leagues likely had to do with his two game suspension. I would tab Gordon as a one week wonder except that he has shown enough even as a Brown to be fantasy worthy weekly. Minnesota had no answer for him Sunday as their secondary looked awful from start to finish. With rumors that the Browns are looking to deal Gordon, he could end up on a more prolific offense. Darius Heyward-Bey I’ve been impressed with Bey’s demeanor and the way he has handled his role as a Colt. Other first round picks told to have a smaller role on a new team might have fizzled and got themselves cut. Bey is the Colts second receiver and has taken considerable value away from TY Hilton as a fantasy receiver. Bey is showing to be more polished than the home run or bust tag he had in Oakland. Maybe Reggie Wayne is rubbing off on him. Kenbrell Thompkins Thompkins flourished for the Patriots in red zone packages as the Buccaneers seemed to blanket Edelman in that area. With Danny Amendola’s injury history it may still end up being up to Thompkins or Aaron Dobson to pick up the slack. Thompkins did it week three and may have gained the Brady trust for future games. Brandon LaFell LaFell’s been a cellar fantasy wide receiver. If he is on a fantasy team, he is likely on a fantasy team that has issues at wide receiver. Carolina’s offense has been up and down the last few years, but defeating the Giants could be the turn up they need. It seemed the Panthers allowed Newton to do some early designed runs. After that the offense seemed to pickup all around. LaFell has a golden opportunity with the decline of Steve Smith and a speed threat also on the field in Ted Ginn Jr. One Week Wonders: Donnie Avery

Week Three Fantasy Football and Handicapping Podcast

Thursday, 19 September, 2013

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