Stretching the Field Post Week Four

Follow@cimini

Reggie Wayne
I documented Wayne’s success since 2006 against the Jaguars. 14 games and he has had over 1400 yards receiving. He maintained his average of over 100 yards each game with another 100 with a touchdown Sunday. Remarkable numbers and he finished the day with twenty yards a catch.

Jerome Simpson and Greg Jennings
It didn’t take long for the Vikings to see their true assets at receiver in Jennings and Simpson. The formula the Vikings thought they had with AP running the ball, and a duo at receiver to help alleviate the pressure off of AP didn’t help with Christian Ponder at quarterback. Instantly with Cassel the Vikings found success as both Simpson and Jennings had averages of over seventeen yards a catch.

Michael Floyd
While Larry Fitzgerald has played through a nagging hamstring injury, Floyd has been able to step up on the field. He had another solid day with five catches and a near 90 yards receiving. Arizona has played on the road against two strong defenses in the Saints and Bucs. With home games upcoming, Floyd should see an even higher rise in production.

Victor Cruz
The Giants gave more effort in Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs. They had a shot to pull it out up until the last part of the third quarter. Special team’s coverage proved to be the back breaker to this Giants loss. Eli moved around a bit more and Cruz had a typical game by his standards with ten catches and over 160 yards.

Alshon Jeffrey
The Bears have weapons all over the field and Jeffrey’s appears to be the latest weapon to step up. He got a lot of his yardage with the Bears down 40-16, but helped erase that lead to 40-32. As teams keep doubling up Brandon Marshall, Jeffrey’s will have more opportunities to be a fantasy asset. Keep in mind he missed some games last year due to injury.

Torrey Smith
There was no doubt that Smith should post quality numbers against a Bills secondary with injuries and susceptible to the long ball. Even with Flacco struggling Sunday, Smith had a strong enough game to almost carry the Ravens to victory. He averaged over 30 yards a catch and finished with over 160 yards on the day.
Robert Woods
EJ Manuel and the Bills offense has been up and down for four weeks. They’ve done just enough to capture two close wins at home. It’s far from being even a top twenty offense right now. Some of that has to do with CJ Spiller not rushing as a top five back thus far. Woods had himself a fair game with four catches for eighty yards, including the lone big pass play touchdown of the day.

Best Targets to Catch Ratios From Week Four

Follow@cimini

Jerome Simpson
Simpson has had a couple of solid games this year. The first was in week one against the Lions. Fantasy owners were waiting to see if he would build on that performance. It didn’t happen with Ponder at quarterback, but he re-ignited this week with Cassel at quarterback. He caught seven passes on eleven targets and should be a prime waiver wire pickup this week.

Antonio Brown
The big plays were limited by the Vikings but it didn’t stop Brown from catching balls. He caught twelve receptions on thirteen targets. An astounding percentage. The Steelers are getting closer to their first win and Brown may be the difference when they do.

Anquan Boldin
Boldin got back into the fold after a few weeks of struggling with five catches for ninety yards on seven targets. He’ll have his ups and downs but should still be considered a top 25 fantasy wideout.

Jordan Cameron
It’s a small sample but Cameron is on the verge of solidifying himself undoubtedly as the number two fantasy tight end in football. He is having his way with secondary’s in all he is doing is mimicking what Jimmy Graham does. Jump ball catches in the red zone and speed to flourish against any secondary on regular passing downs have been the norm for four weeks from Cameron. He caught ten balls on twelve targets Sunday, and was the key component to their victory over the Bengals from an offensive standpoint.

Martellus Bennett
Many believed Bennett would decline and fade in a new environment. Instead he has been an upgrade over any Bears tight end over the last five years. Cutler is running the offense just like Trestman would like, minus the turnovers. Bennett knows his role and caught eight of twelve targets Sunday.

Antonio Gates
You have to respect the endurance Gates has shown. He played the last two to three years through injuries on the field. In 2013 he appears to be playing at his best health in quite some time. Philip Rivers completed all ten of his targets Gates way. That dagger came on a nifty throw that Gates hauled in for a long touchdown.

Tony Gonzalez
With Roddy White playing through injury teams have geared to shutdown Julio Jones and leave old man Tony Gonzalez alone. The Patriots changed their game plan late against Atlanta by doubling Gonzalez . It stopped the Falcons from forcing overtime but did not prevent Gonzalez’s twelve catches on fourteen targets.

Others: Deonte Thompson 4 catches/5 targets, Sean McGrath 5 catches/5 targets, Victor Cruz 10 catches/16 targets, Heath Miller 6 catches/8 targets, Coby Fleener 5 catches/7 targets, Andre Johnson 9 catches/12 targets, Terrence Williams 7 catches/8 targets, Julian Edelman 7 catches/9 targets, Kenbrell Thompkins 6 catches/11 targets, Pierre Garcon 6 catches/7 targets, DeMaryius Thomas 9 catches/10 targets

Not So Good: Jared Cook 4 catches/9 targets, Torrey Smith 5 catches/12 targets, AJ Green 7 catches/15 targets, Josh Gordon 4 catches/9 targets, Calvin Johnson 4 catches/10 targets, Brandon Marshall 7 catches/14 targets, Vincent Jackson 2 catches/11 targets

Post Week Four Waiver Wire Pickups Follow@cimini One month is in the books. Are you sitting at 0-4 in dire need of a win like the Giants and Steelers? Ouch. Just like in the Pros you still have time to recoup for a winning streak. It’ll take an overhaul of trades and waiver wire acquisitions to do so. Here are some guys to take a flier on this week.

Quarterbacks

Brian Hoyer Hoyer was not just a game manager for the Browns Sunday. The running game for the Browns only managed 89 yards total. It was Hoyer that led key drives, including a back breaking touchdown drive that sealed the deal in the fourth quarter. Sorry Brandon Weeden but you’ll be seated on the bench for quite some time. Hoyer gets a nice matchup against the Bills Thursday.

Running Backs

Danny Woodhead I keep adding Woodhead’s name to the waiver wire field each week and he is still available in sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. Fantasy owners want a back who has a chance to carry the ball. Deviate from that mindset. Woodhead has a unique role as a tailback specialist similar to Darren Sproles role of a few years ago. He is getting catches every week, and caught two Sunday. Don’t wait any longer. Kendall Hunter Gore is aging and declined a bit as the year wore on a year ago. Hunter had some nice solid runs with his eleven carries in Thursday night’s blowout over the Rams. Hunter is not more than a deeper league pickup at this point. Others just keep an eye on the 49ers running back situation. If Gore struggles you may want to think about adding him. Fred Jackson It doesn’t appear that the Bills are going to mandate a specific amount of carries to Spiller over Jackson. A year ago Jackson had a strong start only to get bumped out of favor with nagging injuries. He is up there in age but if he can avoid injuries there is no reason for him to be available in 28% of fantasy leagues. Grab my NFL or College plays this week. I went 4-1 in the NFL this past week in LVH's Superbook Handicapping Contest. Currently I'm four games behind on the leaderboard after four weeks. Purchase my plays here or at kellyinvegas.com Rashad Jennings Jennings has filled in for spot duties before in Jacksonville. Darren McFadden just can’t avoid the injury bug. Even if he is back soon, Jennings is worth taking a flier on. McFadden’s track record proves that even a minor injury can derail him with other setbacks throughout the year. Willis McGahee Unlike the Giants pickup of Brandon Jacobs, McGahee figures to have a prominent role forthcoming as a Brown. He put up decent numbers in Denver a year ago and is going to see his role expand as a Brown. This past week he received fifteen carries against the Bengals. Yardage wise his numbers were not impressive. Don’t expect that to be the norm with the Browns passing game expanding. Le’Veon Bell Who knows if the Steelers will be able to mix in run plays with the holes they dig themselves in every week. Bell put on a strong debut fantasy wise with two touchdowns and over sixty yards total. That’s good enough to add him if you’re in one of the 28% of Yahoo leagues that he is available. Ronnie Hillman When an offense is clicking at the velocity of the Broncos, you want any player that sees action on the field. At the first part of this season it looked like Hillman would be the odd man out. But he has crept back in to a role a tad bit higher than Montee Ball. It looks like the Broncos want Moreno as their brute tailback and Hillman as their change of pace and out of the backfield threat.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Doug Baldwin No one was involved in two crucial plays that won his team a game than Doug Baldwin. He made an outstanding grab on the edge of the sideline that was ruled incomplete initially. It was a third down play with the Seahawks down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. They went on to score that drive. In overtime he made another quick hitch catch that drew a horse collar penalty. It seems that Baldwin’s appearance in the Seahawks offense is not going anywhere. Wilson will have much better passing days ahead, and Baldwin should be a key recipient of that. Jerome Simpson Greg Jennings and Simpson benefitted from a more open passing attack with Matt Cassel. It may be short lived due to the ups and downs we have seen from Cassel as a Chief. But with AP in the backfield it should add a few notches to Cassel’s overall ability. Clearly the announcement and switch to Cassel permanetely will be made. That makes Simpson a strong pickup this week. Sean McGrath The Chiefs dink and dump offense is working…..for now. The game of Alex Smith getting those short routes picked off is only a matter of time. For now the Chiefs play calling is mixing it up just enough to play things safe. McGrath is just the latest of newly employed dink and dump route runners that can have prime interest for a fantasy owner. Alshon Jeffrey Jeffrey is still available in over fifty percent of Yahoo fantasy leagues. That’ll decrease drastically after his show out performance against the Lions. Jeffrey’s is starting to emulate his fellow star receiver Brandon Marshall. They have the same type of physique, and all Jeffrey’s has to develop is more of a role in the Bears offense to flourish. That’ll be up to the Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, who seems more willing to spread the football around. Robert Woods Woods is an extremely polished and talented receiver coming out of USC. Buffalo likes his big play ability and quickness on quick screen wide receiver throws. One strong key that fantasy owners should like is that EJ Manuel targets him quite a bit. He had eight targets Sunday. Manuel is still developing but Woods can be a nice bench depth filler for one looking to upgrade their bench.

Week Four Automatics/Don’t Do Its

Follow@cimini Week four is set to begin tonight with the 49ers and Rams. Remember the Panthers and Packers are on byes this week. If you’re not inserting a 49er or Ram into your fantasy lineup that takes away four teams of potential fantasy starters. You need to rely on your role players to get wins each week. Here are some automatics and don’t do its for week four. Bye Week Teams: Carolina and Green Bay

Automatics

Brian Hoyer Even though Hoyer threw three picks against the Vikings he did not let it rattle him. He’ll learn from those mistakes. This week is a huge test for Hoyer to remain a starter. Cleveland will need to mix in more run plays at home to keep the Bengals offense from seeing the field. Cincinnati’s defense is getting a lot of hype but is susceptible to the big play. They’ve faced the Steelers, Packers, and Bears and what keyed two of those wins were turnovers. Neither of those teams had the threat at tight end that the Browns do. Look for Hoyer to continue hitting Jordan Cameron which will open up one on one pass plays down the field to Josh Gordon. Stevan Ridley Ridley has been in a three week fantasy jailhouse. He’ll break through the bars this weekend in Atlanta. The last thing New England wants to do is stir up Matt Ryan and Atlanta on their home field. Matty Ice is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks on his home turf. In order to slow things down New England will depend on Ridley to sustain the ground attack. Expect this to be the first major contributing week for Ridley. Darren McFadden McFadden seems to be benefitting from having Terrelle Pryor as his quarterback. Pryor has not been declared out or available yet. Even if it ends up being Matt Flynn, McFadden is setup for one of his best matchups of the season. If Pryor plays you can easily expect McFadden to rush over 100 yards. We saw how the Redskins defense handled a running quarterback with Mike Vick. Pryor does it more and the Raiders will assuredly have a high amount of carries planned for McFadden. Vernon Davis St. Louis has had their struggles with their pass defense and may find themselves exposed tonight against San Francisco. Davis is the 49ers best option out of the backfield currently. Look for the 49ers to setup some different routes like the Saints do with Jimmy Graham to get the passing attack back in gear. St. Louis did a nice job at home against their divisional opponents last season. Not this time on a Thursday night and the 49ers off of two losses. Reggie Wayne If you’re looking for a player that ignites against a certain opponent it’s Reggie Wayne against Jacksonville. His stats over the last eight years against the Jags are mind boggling. Besides a one game hiccup in 2011, Wayne has tore apart the Jaguars for an obscene amount of yards and touchdowns. Wayne has been quiet in the stat department to start the season and is due too. Torrey Smith Geno Smith beat the Bills with big plays down the field to Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill. Since their defeat to Denver the Ravens defense has been terrific. Allowing just six points to the Browns, and nine to the Texans. With how poor Buffalo has been against the run this is going to be the same recipe repeated by Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith. Antonio Brown Once Big Ben is dialed in with a player it doesn’t stop. Brown exploded against the Bears and gets an even better secondary to tear apart Sunday. Brown should once again rank as one of the top fantasy receivers for this week. Even with travel factored in by playing a game in Europe. Others: Rod Streater, Reuben Randle, Joique Bell, and Brian Hartline

Don’t Do Its

Jay Cutler Inside the division the Bears have not been a strong hold. That’s one of the reasons why they’ve had roller coaster seasons the past few years. Detroit has been one of the teams that has had Cutler’s number, especially in Detroit. A lot of that had to do with the front seven pressure constantly in his face. The offensive line has been better to start this season. But I don’t trust Jay on the road in Detroit to be a viable fantasy option. Andy Dalton The Browns defense feels they have the best defense in the division not the Bengals. They’ll get their chance to show their value at home against Dalton. I have not been overly impressed with Dalton. He has got the job done when needed but has thrown a lot of inaccurate balls to start the season. He’ll see constant pressure from Cleveland Sunday and that should lead to a poor overall day. Dalton will finish the week outside the top twenty fantasy quarterbacks. DeSean Jackson Jackson teased fantasy owners with a couple of big games to start the year. Averages are averages. Jackson has never flourished as a mega yardage receiver or touchdown reception guy. He fizzles as the season goes on for some reason or other. Look for Jackson to have a rough stretch over the next few games. Alfred Morris Call it a sophomore slump. Morris is in it and feeling the sophomore blues. Traveling to Oakland is not going to rectify Morris’s struggles. Offensively the Redskins need to figure out their identity. It appears they’re gearing to the look of having RG3 be a pocket passer and dropping back 40 plus times. The run has not setup the passing attack yet, and won’t Sunday in Oakland. Bilal Powell Powell found running lanes not an issue against the Bills, they’ll be harder to come by against the Titans. Powell is still a quality back to have based on the Jets offensive line. There will be games though where rookie quarterback Geno Smith struggles and it leads to a halt entirely for the offense. Depending on the backs you have, you should be in a decent spot to bypass Powell in favor of others this week. Donnie Avery Avery was a hot commodity amongst waiver wire pickups. Facing the Giants would seem to deem itself as a possible start for Avery. I’m never big on an offense that is not going to score much. That is what Kansas City represents. Avery will dot the fantasy spectrum on occasion, but with huge gaps of irregularity. I’d sit him this week. Terrance Williams With Miles Austin dinged up, Williams is next in line to see formidable action. I don’t think the rookie is ready to be an impact player in the Cowboys offense. Against the Giants we saw an interception down in the end zone that was clear miscommunication between Romo and Williams. Romo will be fine Sunday, but he’ll lean heavily on Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. Others: Daryl Richardson, Russ Wilson, and Larry Fitzgerald

Follow@cimini

Throwing in a new quarterback by going with someone that has no career experience would cause many to be worried. Ten years ago defenses would feed off of inexperienced quarterbacks. Not this day in age. Quarterbacks have seen the plethora of defensive schemes and are advanced in recognizing reads and where to go with the football.

Tampa Bay is going to test out their young quarterback Mike Glennon in favor of Josh Freeman. Freeman once stormed the league with a great season in 2010, but has fallen out of favor after repeated poor performances. Whatever Freeman’s off the field issues have been he is in need of a new situation. I believe Greg Schiano made the right move in not waiting any longer on seeing what Glennon can do.

The Buccaneers could easily be 2-1 even with last week’s loss at home to the Patriots. They let the Jets hang around enough to lose on a last second field goal. Against the Saints their defense was stout. It setup the offense with a short field on their only offensive touchdown of the game, and scored the other. Frankly, Freeman’s performance in that game should have had him on the bench.

You don’t want to lose your team this early in the season, and the Buccaneers at 0-3 are right on the cusp. They’ve signed some key veteran free agents that may value their contract dollars over their performance if things keep getting worse. Moving to Glennon bolsters the team to strive extra and see what happens. The NFC is already showing cracks in the NFC North and East divisions and the Falcons are only a game ahead of the Buccaneers.

Glennon is a big quarterback that is going to need time to unleash to his wide receivers Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. This week against the Cardinals I’d expect the Bucs to give Doug Martin his biggest load of the year. If he can establish the run I do not see Glennon having an issue completing pass plays down the field to his big play receivers. Arizona has been suspect at allotting receiving yards, especially to tight ends.

Last week the Saints abandoned the rushing game early as they could not run the ball against the Cardinals. Still, even with the Cards defense knowing that Brees was throwing the football each down they could not prevent the Saints passing attack. Brees receivers didn’t even have a big day, it was all Jimmy Graham.

Obviously, Brees and Glennon are on opposite sides of the spectrum in terms of quarterbacking. But having a home edge and a basic offensive game plan should keep the Buccaneers in this game. They’ll need to rely on their pressuring defense to create turnovers. Turnovers have been Carson Palmer’s enemy on the road. The last two years he has thrown an interception on the road every game but one.

You can easily say he had a better running game in those environments in Oakland and Cincinnati as well.

Coming into this season Glennon knew he would likely get a chance to start. The media has been on Josh Freeman and the squabbles amongst the Buccaneers staff on his capabilities. He should be ready for this moment, and this is a good spot for him to get a start before the bye week.

This team is going to come out hard to grab a win to go into the bye week. All Glennon has to do is protect the football, as Palmer will be good for at least one if not more interceptions. If the Buccaneers can get an early lead, they should be able to protect it.

Don’t be surprised to see Glennon be the latest young quarterback to win his first game as a starter.

Post Week Three NFL Team Rankings

Follow@cimini

1. Denver Broncos- There is no question here. Denver has blown out teams since being down to Baltimore in the first half of week one.
2. Seattle Seahawks- Seattle is 3-0 but needs to show it can win handily on the road before bumping out Denver in the top spot.
3. New Orleans- If the defense can play as a top twelve to fifteen unit, this is a team no one wants to play in January
4. Chicago Bears- Trailing or even with a big lead the Bears have made things interesting. Chicago has jumped out to great regular season starts the last few seasons only to fizzle. The defense’s age could be a detriment past the midway point of the season.
5. Houston Texans- The Texans couldn’t put touchdowns on the board early against Baltimore and it came back to bite them. Add a pick six and a defensive touchdown and the game took a turn for the worse. Houston gets their hands full this weekend against the Seahawks.
6. New England- Yes they’re 3-0 but I still rank them behind the Texans for now. Their wins have come against the Jets, Bills, and Buccaneers. Not the best of opponents in which they did not dominate as teams ranked above them have.
7. Baltimore- A non-talked about display from Sunday was the dominance of the Ravens defense against Houston. The team was flying from sideline to sideline. I don’t care if it was Tom Brady behind center instead of Matt Schaub, there would have been similar results.
8. San Francisco- They’ve got some work to do but it is too early in the season to believe the defending NFC champs are going to cave under the current circumstances.
9. Atlanta- Falcons fans have no reason to worry. They just need to fix their woes inside opponents territory to gain touchdowns instead of field goals. The Falcons could easily be 3-0.
10. Kansas City- It’s going to take half the season for me to be a believer in this Chiefs team. They haven’t been truly threatened to rely on Alex Smith in the fourth quarter playing from behind. It’s bound to happen soon. I can envision a three to four game slide before the season’s all said and done.
11. Cincinnati Bengals
12. Green Bay Packers
13. Indianapolis Colts
14. Dallas
15. Detroit Lions
16. Miami
17. Tennessee
18. San Diego Chargers
19. Philadelphia Eagles
20. Carolina Panthers
21. Arizona Cardinals
22. New York Jets
23. Pittsburgh Steelers
24. NY Giants
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Washington Redskins
27. St. Louis Rams
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Buffalo Bills
30. Minnesota Vikings
31. Oakland Raiders
32. Jacksonville Jaguars