Fantasy Football

Post Week Five Waiver Wire Pickups

Monday, 7 October, 2013
Follow@cimini It was a big week for unheralded receivers. Welcome back Justin Blackmon. There will be other names attached to your at the receiver position to be added this week on waivers. Ryan Fitzpatrick If you can get solid points from a quarterback than can run the football then do it. Fitzpatrick has a fantasy history and gets to fill in for a month for Jake Locker. Sunday he ran for fifty yards and a touchdown, even though he deduced those eleven points by four with two picks. He’s worthy of fantasy consideration in deeper leagues or for a team in desperation for a fill in quarterback. Terrelle Pryor The second half wasn't the best for Pryor as the Raiders couldn't muster much. For Pryor though he has shown enough glimpses to be a viable fantasy backup quarterback to say the least. He has great speed to blister by defenses, and is doing enough with his arm on rollouts to show capable accuracy for an every week starter. Defenses adjust quickly, so it'll be interesting to see how Pryor does over the course of the season when there is more game tape on him. Donald Brown TRich is still struggling to get acclimated to a new system. A football team can’t wait for results, and Chuck Pagano isn’t. The Colts will continue to be a passing team that runs to keep defenses honest. While doing so, it’s going to open the doors for Donald Brown if Trent Richardson continues to struggle. The Colts invested a first round pick on Brown a few years ago and aren’t afraid to use Brown in a share with Richardson. Pierre Thomas It’s a whirlwind how the Saints are winning without a true running game. Sean Payton is figuring out a way and it’s by mixing in the short passes marvelously. Similar to how the Chargers are running their offense, the Saints are fine with the short pass completions for five or six yards with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. Sooner or later defenses are not going to be able to curtail the Saints running game. That makes Thomas an even bigger stock riser for his field. Shane Vereen Alert, alert. Before Shane Vereen went out due to injury he was overtaking Stevan Ridley as the Patriots feature back. Now Ridley is hurt and the Patriots are utilizing LeGarette Blount. Vereen’s due date to return from injury is right around the corner. Don’t wait for the report that he is probable before you get on board. Be proactive and grab Vereen for a prime time back to finish the fantasy season with. Chris Ivory Ivory is back in the fold after being out for quite awhile. The Jets will look to groom their rookie with better ball protection. In order to do so they'll lean on their ground attack with Powell and Ivory. Ivory had great value as a Saint out of nowhere. On an offense enforcing the run with a great offensive line, Ivory can be one of the better second backs in a duel back system in fantasy football. Zac Stacy I’m not putting much into the Rams semi success at a duel back system week five. Daryl Richardson still averaged below four yards a carry after being demoted to backup. Stacy is going to get more of an opportunity to take a higher share of this split backfield. He may not be the complete answer but an opportunity for a top time share back doesn’t present itself in fantasy football this often. Grab Stacy and see if he can be a decent acquisition. Andre Ellington I’ve touched on how certain teams are resorting to a short passing attack with their backs to compromise a non-existent running game (San Diego and New Orleans). Arizona fits that bill as well but to a lesser extent with Ellington. They’re still working him in to their offensive packages. But he has been a spark in a limited role through five games. With Carson Palmer struggling majorly over the last two to three games, they’re going to need Ellington on the field more to lessen the burden for Palmer. Terrence Williams Miles Austin is no stranger to nagging injuries. Dallas thinks they’re a playoff team. They may end up being one but it’ll be a tough road to climb. In the process they’ll try to ensure Austin does not rush back until he is fully recovered. While Austin remains sidelined Williams is going to continue to have the opportunities to shine in a high octane passing attack. Alshon Jeffrey For how much the Bears offense throws the football it was surprising to see how available Jeffrey’s truly is. He is only owned in 66% of Yahoo leagues even after a couple of solid games thus far this season. How he has remained on waivers is mind boggling. People ran to scoop Donnie Avery but left Jeffrey’s. Go figure. Keenan Allen The rookie had a high impact against the Raiders Sunday. He could of had two touchdowns but one was taken off the board on a challenge. The Chargers are going to get the bulk of their yardage offensively through the air. With Allen getting a prominent role with Floyd out for the year, fantasy owners should be able to secure a solid waiver wire acquisition with Allen. Justin Blackmon The suspension tag for four games prohibited 40% of Yahoo leagues to consider Blackmon a fantasy risk. A month to wait was too long for owners. Based on Blackmon’s finish to last year there was evidence that he had some value. Jacksonville’s offense isn’t going to pile up points which negates Blackmon’s overall fantasy value. But yardage wise he should be proficient. He can stack solidly as a number three to four fantasy wide receiver. Doug Baldwin Seattle is not a fantasy oasis at receiver. Percy Harvin may increase that thinking if he returns. For now the Seahawks have allotted to mix it up with their corp group of Baldwin, Tate, and Rice. Out of all of them, Baldwin continues to be the presence at receiver that Wilson defers to when scrambling. Baldwin is getting on the field more. With the Seahawks defense now allowing points, Seattle is resorting more to a passing attack than rushing the football. A shift from a year ago. Baldwin’s stock is approaching a top 35 to 40 fantasy receiver status.

NFL Team Rankings Post Week Four

Friday, 4 October, 2013

Team Rankings Post Week Four

Follow@cimini

1. Denver Broncos- Rolling, rolling and destroying teams as they do so.
2. Seattle Seahawks- Grit when playing from behind on the road is another big step for this team.
3. New Orleans- Even I was shocked at how well the Saints played against Miami. It was their best performance of the season. They just seem to be getting better by the week.
4. New England- Brady is at it again. They have the look of a team that’s going to be tested when it matters though.
5. San Francisco- The Super Bowl Champs responded well on Thursday night. But that was against the Rams. They’ll face a much tougher opponent Sunday
6. Houston Texans- Tough losses happen. How a team responds separates the solid teams from the greats.
7. Chicago Bears- Detroit would be a tough opponent for anyone on their home field. I’m not discrediting one loss by bumping the Bears too far down.
8. Kansas City Chiefs- They sit at 4-0 but I think this will be the highest they reach as far as team rankings on the year.
9. Green Bay Packers- Eddie Lacy is back and the Packers return after a bye week. They’ll be a top ten to fifteen team all season.
10. Baltimore Ravens- Based on their division they’re a team that can finish 10-6 or even 9-7 and still be a top twelve team. The past has proven an overall record isn’t the only thing that matters. They’re still searching for an identity offensively. But the Ravens defense is young, fast, and will grow as the season stretches.
11. Indianapolis
12. Detroit
13. Atlanta Falcons
14. Dallas Cowboys
15. Cincinnati
16. Tennessee
17. San Diego
18. Carolina Panthers
19. Miami Dolphins
20. Arizona Cardinals
21. Washington Redskins
22. Cleveland Browns
23. Philadelphia Eagles
24. Buffalo Bills
25. NY Jets
26. Minnesota Vikings
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
28. NY Giants
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Oakland Raiders
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy Injury Update: Quarterbacks Hoyer and EJ Manuel

Friday, 4 October, 2013

Fantasy Injury Update: Quarterbacks Hoyer and EJ Manuel

Follow@cimini

Rules were inputted to protect quarterbacks from getting drilled in the pocket. Injuries are going to occur. For the most part though pocket passers have remained absent of injury in 2013. It’s the scrambling quarterback that has seen the effect of unfortunate injuries. Terrelle Pryor took a lick a few weeks ago that cost him a week of action. Jake Locker wasn’t scrambling necessarily but is a threat with his legs.

Thursday EJ Manuel and Brian Hoyer fell to injuries. Both will miss time with Hoyer out for the season and Manuel out for a minimum of two games. Neither Manuel or Hoyer were fantasy football darlings but they were on the radar. It’s not necessarily what impact this has individually from a fantasy football standpoint, but rather the talent on their offenses.

For the Cleveland Browns they know what degree of change their offense is going to get from Brandon Weeden. Weeden lost his job to Hoyer because Hoyer made quicker decisions and made a difference in the win/loss column. Ups and downs by Weeden are something you can expect in a game and that’s impactful when every series matters. His strengths are his arm which can extend secondaries out to play the deep ball.

That was his main asset in a comeback win at home against Buffalo yesterday. But his inconsistencies to stay accurate for four quarters are going to be a burden for the Browns. Without the threat of a strong running game, Weeden’s going to have an uphill battle to climb. We already saw Thursday that he tends to hold onto the football too long waiting for an open target. The Browns organization has already offered enough hints to Weeden that they’ll likely go in another direction next season.

The remainder of this season is basically an audition for Weeden to get reevaluated by other NFL teams. From a fantasy standpoint he will keep the talent of Greg Little, Jordan Cameron, and Josh Gordon effective. For his sake though Weeden is not a viable fantasy football talent until he proves he can play for four quarters without the hiccups of turnovers.

The effect of a quarterback injury is much more drastic for Buffalo. Jeff Tuel showed Thursday that he cannot be an adequate fill in for a length of time as a starter. He may be a practice type capable backup quarterback, but he does not have the talent to win with his arm as a starter. Evidenced by his slow reads and pick six sealer in defeat to the Browns yesterday.

Bills head coach Doug Marrone hinted that the Bills will look to sign a free agent. In all likelihood that quarterback will get reps as the Bills fill in starter until Manuel clears. With Stevie Johnson nursing a sore back, the weapons at receiver are going to be a daunting task for any quarterback to succeed with.

The Bills strength is going to reside at running back. CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, and even Tashard Choice will likely see an increase in their work load over the next two to three games. Continue to play Jackson and Spiller. At receiver the only Bill worthy of fantasy consideration besides Stevie Johnson was Robert Woods. I’d keep Woods out of deeper league lineups for a stretch of games until we see Manuel get back on the field healthy.

Week Five Automatics/Don’t Do It Options

Thursday, 3 October, 2013

Week Five Start/Sit Options

Follow@cimini

Get in on week five action for automatics/don’t do its for your lineups. Yes it’s October. Are you already contemplating how you’re going to draft better for next season’s fantasy drafts? Let’s hope not. Here are solid options to submit as starters and who not to this week.

Automatics

Chris Rainey
The Browns running back should get a steady dose Thursday against the Bills alongside Willis McGahee. The Bills have been poor defensively on the road. Coming off a short week the Browns will look to limit mistakes as much as possible. To do that they’ll need to expand the running game more than they have in their two game win streak. Brian Hoyer has done it with his arm but they’ll tone it down and give Rainey and McGahee a fair amount of carries.

Cam Newton
Cam Newton is one of those number one quarterbacks that people have to ponder to start/sit each week. This would not be a week to do that, even though he is going against a solid defense on the road in Arizona. Remember Newton’s first game as a professional was against the Arizona Cardinals and he put on a show. Coming of renewed confidence after their week three win and a bye week, I’d expect Cam to continue to build upward and not downward.

Riley Cooper
Chip Kelly has to be shaking his head with his offensive approach being derailed by playing from behind. Last week the Eagles were just over powered by the Broncos ability offensively. For the first time since week two against the Chargers the Eagles should be able to attempt their game plan for a complete game. New York’s defense has not been able to stop anyone. DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy will get their typical numbers but this is the type of game that Riley Cooper can step up and have a fantasy impact as well. Yardage wise he can crack the eighty yards with a touchdown.

Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitz gets his chance as the Titans starter for the next four to six weeks. With the team playing solid defense, Fitzpatrick will likely be able to play with calmness instead of being down by several scores like he was in Buffalo. For Fitz his woes in Buffalo had to do with his turnovers not his numbers overall. There was a time not too long ago that even you thought of picking him up off of waivers as a Buffalo Bill. He’ll have better value now on an underrated Titans team, and should be a solid play each week including Sunday against Kansas City.

Terrelle Pryor
A week after sustaining a concussion the Raiders made it clear there would be no quarterback controversy in Oakland. They further demoted Matt Flynn to third string. That should alleviate Pryor from any concerns of looking behind his shoulder or playing with increased stress on the field. A late game is going to cause some mental lapses defensively. Kickoff will be at 8:30PM which is the latest kickoff in quite awhile in the NFL. Pryor has the freelance escape skills and enough of an arm to equate to a viable starter this week against Oakland.

Others: Doug Baldin, Trent Richardson, and MJD

Don’t Do Its

Joe Flacco
Flacco had the type of day last Sunday that you just don’t see from a Super Bowl MVP. With Buffalo willing to squander a game, Flacco threw yet another interception with a chance to tie or win the game before the end of regulation. Almost all of his interceptions were in the “no business” zone. Throws he doesn’t typically make, but for some reason Buffalo had him in a tizzy. Getting out of a slump that Flacco is in doesn’t happen in one game. The Ravens will need to game plan a run heavy offense and slowly bring Flacco’s confidence back. Bench him this week against Miami.

Roddy White
White deserves to be commended for trying to play through his ankle injury, but it’s clear that he is no where near 100 percent. Teams are shutting him down and the usual potent Falcons offense is stammering with hiccups throughout games. Until White can be the opposite threat that he was before his injury, the Falcons may experience more bumps in the road. Speed loss and the inability to run crisp routes is hurting White drastically. You have to sit him if you drafted wisely at the receiver position.

Ryan Mathews
A few years ago Matthews was drafted as a prime back. Tabbed by all fantasy experts as a must draftee in high rounds. The bust label soon flourished for Matthews as he could not stay on the field. San Diego has seemed to bypass the notion of Matthews being the feature back they once drafted him to be. Instead they’re running a comfortable pass happy offense that gets more with their backs in the passing game than it does on the ground. Mathews has never had great success against the Raiders, and that won’t change Sunday.

Alex Smith
Notice when Alex Smith was on the 49ers and they were winning who was praised on the 49ers; the defense. In four games as a Chief it’s the same thing; the defense. Smith is the new Jay Fiedler. A game manager who can win by doing the bare minimum. Sooner or later the defense can’t hold and a quarterback’s arm will be called into action. That week is now for Smith. Tennessee will get after him and get one pick six off of a jumped eight yard route this week.

Larry Fitzgerald
Fitz’s best years as a receiver are starting to look like a chapter that he would want to relive in a different uniform. Arizona still has the same plaguing issues surrounded to their offense. No identity for a running game and an offensive line that is questionable at best. Carson Palmer is finding that out the hard way. With defenses able to blitz and scheme to the Cardinals weaknesses it may be another long season or Fitz. He did get a few touchdowns week one but that was against the Rams poor defense. Last week the offense was held to zero points until a few gifts by rookie Mike Glennon sparked a few short drives that the Cardinals capitalized on. Those opportunities are going to diminish this week against a stout Panthers defense. Sit Fitz if you don’t want to be disappointed by a poor fantasy outing.

Others: TY Hilton, Daryl Richardson, Carson Palmer, Geno Smith, and Kenbrell Thompkins.

Week Five Handicapping and Fantasy Football Podcast

Wednesday, 2 October, 2013

Week Five Fourth Quarter Killers

Wednesday, 2 October, 2013

Week Five Fourth Quarter Killers

Follow@cimini

Jay Cutler and the Bears Offensive Weapons
The theme currently with the Bears is that their offense is causing the team to play from behind. Albeit from poor mistakes by Jay Cutler or slow starts. Soon that will shift to issues from the defense. They’ve been giving up a ton of yards that has yielded points. Turnovers can only bailout a team so much. Facing New Orleans will be the latest failure of a Bears defense susceptible to big plays. Expect Jay Cutler and his weapons to be gunning again late. A flurry of fantasy points will accumulate as a result.

Tony Romo
Blending any team against the Broncos right now is a recipe for fantasy success. Dallas has not been able to form a consistent offensive game plan and it has wreaked havoc for a consistent team. Well this week against the Broncos a true offensive game plan won’t matter. The secondary is once again in shambles and won’t be able to correct issues in seven days let alone against Peyton Manning. Romo gets a lot of unwarranted attention because he gets put in these type of 50 pass attempt games frequently. He’ll be a top four week five fantasy producer but be the aching Dallas Cowboys media topic basher at the same time.

MJD
Owners have been waiting for a game that MJD will surpass his team’s inefficiency offensively. This is the golden game where you’ll see a payoff. I actually believe the Jaguars are not too far off from where the Rams are talent wise. The gap is much closer than we’ve seen from the Jaguar opponents in the Chiefs, Colts, and Seahawks. Blaine Gabbert will use MJD more in this game with the ground attack and with quick screens. Once the game hits the fourth quarter, MJD will be the difference as he is the most talented player on the field.

Cam Newton
Reflecting on good moments in your career is hard to not think about once in awhile. Newton’s career is still a mere few years in but it all started in a phenomenal week one debut in Arizona. Now he is back to Glendale, Arizona with a new fire after the Panthers dismantled the Giants before the Panthers bye week. In the second half of that game you could see Cam Newton’s confidence spring back. He’ll put together a fantasy friendly game against a Cardinals defense that many fantasy owners would consider sitting Newton.

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Robert Woods
A quick turn around for a rookie quarterback may not be the best of things. EJ Manuel has done a decent job at home, but on the road he has struggled mightily. Cleveland’s defense will attack and likely force plenty of three and outs for the Bills. By the fourth quarter Cleveland should have a comfortable ten to thirteen point lead that will allot the defense to ease a bit. Woods is showing to be one of Manuel’s favorite targets, and should produce this week in the fourth quarter.

Titans Defense
Tennessee is not getting enough credit for what their defense has provided for an overall boost to their team. The injury to Jake Locker will leave bettors and fans discouraged to take the home dog Titans. Not me. Locker’s replacement in Ryan Fitzpatrick thrives in backup roles and has done it as a Ram, Bengal, and Bill. His payday was granted in Buffalo and now he has zero pressure on his shoulders. Alex Smith and the Chiefs on the other hand have heightened expectations that were not there just four weeks ago. The dink and dump offensive approach with Alex Smith is going to crack soon. It didn’t against the Jags, Cowboys, Eagles, or Giants. All of which are not considered top ten or even twenty defenses. Smith will cave and provide the Titans defense with plenty of fantasy points.

Others: Eagles and Giants offensive talent against each other’s poor defenses, Geno Smith, Terrelle Pryor, and Dez Bryant