Week Six Automatics/Don’t Do Its

Follow@cimini

Automatics

Jay Cutler
A couple of weeks ago Drew Brees got revenge for his 2010 dismal performance against the Cardinals with a blowout win. Now, Jay Cutler gets his chance tonight. In 2010, he was sacked NINE times in one half and couldn’t make it back on the field for the second half. Cutler can put his foot on the gas in this one in a game against the winless Giants.

CJ Spiller
The game is coming where Spiller unleashes and has the breakout game fantasy owners have been waiting for. It may come this week for the reason that the Bills will have to strip away a bulk of their pass plays. Some teams have had success against the Bengals rushing the football; including the Packers with Jonathan Franklin.

Steve Smith
Smith had a disastrous game last week against Arizona. The type of game that would lead you to believe maybe he can’t cut it as a wide receiver number one. Smith will respond this week against a poor Vikings secondary and dispel that notion.
Others: Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, Pierre Thomas, and RGIII

Don’t Do It

Willis Mcgahee
McGahee has had a heavy workload since being signed right off the streets. And it hasn’t led to stellar stats. He is averaging less than four yards a carry and seems to be taking a beating in the process. Detroit is not the type of team to run the football against if you don’t possess some slash to your style of running.

Larry Fitzgerald
I haven’t seen any change in the Cardinals offense that would lead me to believe starting Fitz would be wise. The team has typically started seasons off strong by relying on their defense. Right around week six is when the big dip occurs as the defense starts breaking down. Offensively, Bruce Arians needs to set up some big pass plays that were supposed to be included in the Cardinals offense.

Philip Rivers
I like how Rivers has stormed back to be fantasy relevant after two declining years. His new coordinators and coach have played the big role in that. Indianapolis just isn’t a good matchup for Philip. Indianapolis should be able to get out to an early lead, which will lead to Rivers pressing. Sit him this week and find another option.

Others: Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Russ Wilson, Reggie Bush and Matt Schaub

NFL TEAM RANKINGS POST WEEK FIVE

Follow@cimini

1. Denver Broncos- They surrendered 48 points defensively and still won on the road.
2. Seattle Seahawks- Even with a loss they stay at the number two spot. Defensively they allotted a comeback by Andrew Luck which has happened to plenty of teams in two years.
3. New Orleans Saints- The defense is a top fifteen unit but how will it perform against the big dogs come playoff time?
4. San Francisco- It looks like Jim Harbaugh got the message to run the ball more after Frank Gore went on a rant two weeks ago.
5. Kansas City Chiefs- The Chiefs aren’t winning exactly how a dominant top five team typically does, but they’re 5-0
6. New England
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Indianapolis
9. Chicago Bears
10. Cincinnati
11. Baltimore Ravens
12. Detroit Lions
13. Houston Texans
14. Dallas Cowboys
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. Miami Dolphins
17. Tennessee Titans
18. Arizona Cardinals
19. San Diego Chargers
20. Cleveland Browns
21. Philadelphia Eagles
22. NY Jets
23. Carolina Panthers
24. Washington Redskins
25. Minnesota Vikings
26. Buffalo Bills
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
28. NY Giants
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Oakland Raiders
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars

UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES FOR ROSTER FLEX, BENCH DEPTH, AND BORDERLINE STARTERS

Follow@cimini

Upgrades

Terrelle Pryor Pryor is showing enough with his legs to warrant fantasy consideration as a borderline starter. Hold the inserts into your starting lineups just a tad bit more. He’ll need to show consistency for four complete quarters before he gets the bump up. As of now though he is an adequate fill in if needed for bye week or injuries with an asterisk on the uptrend. Bilal Powell Powell appears to be entering that fantasy realm where Alfred Morris was a year ago. A back that shouldn’t be a top ten to twelve fantasy running back but may crack it because of the system he is in. He has a great offensive line and a system that flourishes off the running game. The best games for Powell are ahead of him. Antonio Gates While Jimmy Graham treads to astronomical territories for tight end statistics, Antonio Gates is having a comeback year. I was one that didn’t believe Gates would get back to this type of level. After two consecutive years of down numbers it appeared his injury woes and age would continue his downfall. Similar to the way Tony Gonzalez kept at it, Gates has as well. He has transformed from a smooth effortless tight end to one that uses his size and nimbleness to outwit defenders. Jerome Simpson The Vikings didn’t bait to trade for Josh Freeman and still landed him. Sounds like a move they did years back to land Brett Favre. No one can perform under the scrutiny and non-belief of your abilities as were the situations with Freeman in Tampa Bay. I love the fact that the Vikings are not inserting Freeman right away this Sunday. He gets a chance to breathe in soak in this new opportunity. Something the Raiders did not do when they acquired Carson Palmer via a trade two years ago. Freeman doesn’t have to be an all-world quarterback in Minnesota. If Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel could find success with the Vikings than Freeman can as well. With confidence Freeman had Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams as fantasy studs. The same should happen with Simpson and Greg Jennings. Others: Alshon Jeffrey, TY Hilton, James Jones and Vernon Davis

Downgrades

Mike Wallace Wallace was never a high catch per game fantasy juggernaut. Miami’s offense isn’t predicated on any main strengths. They seem to be winging it every series hoping for success. I don’t like that recipe as the season stretches on. The Fins’ need to find a neutralizer of go to plays and players to perform them. Wallace can be that guy but it appears that Tannehill and Wallace need an offseason to get on the same page. Based on Wallace’s targets per receptions it’s obvious these two need to build a stronger connection. Larry Fitzgerald I’m not knocking Fitzgerald’s skillset but he is on a team that strangles his talents. If you’ve watched Arizona this year, Carson Palmer is under extreme duress every passing down. It’s to the point that Palmer will likely be sidelined with an injury before the end of this month. It has happened a couple of times as a Bengal and even last year as a Raider. Pocket passers need protection to succeed and Arizona doesn’t have the line or running game to sustain that. Fitzgerald has to be downgraded after four straight games of poor yardage totals. Danny Woodhead Kudos to Ken Whisenhunt for implementing a quick strike passing attack. Plays have been implemented to ensure Philip Rivers gets rid of the football much quicker than he has in years past. That philosophy is going to take a hit with Ryan Matthews now out for at least a month. Woodhead showed in New England that he can’t handle twenty or more plays on the field. Quite frankly Ronnie Brown’s in the Chargers system based more on his mental strengths for pass protection than he is as a rusher. That means Woodhead has to try and be a feature back for the next month. His effectiveness as a pass catcher has to diminish quite a bit now and may be levied off for the rest of the season. Doug Martin Of all rookie quarterbacks to get starts over the last two to three years I believe Mike Glennon is right near the bottom from a talent standpoint. You have the Buccaneers organization mired with controversy. They had a locker room MRSA virus outbreak that affected two players. On top of that the team seems to be rebelling against head coach Greg Schiano. No team has performed worse offensively than the Buccaneers. Discounting one drive against the NY Jets the offense has done absolutely squat against the Patriots, Buccaneers, and Saints. With Glennon in, even more attention can be placed on Martin. The workload may prove to be too much for the second year back. Others: Eli Manning, Dwayne Bowe, Tavon Austin, and Marshawn Lynch

Time to Make a Move: Buy Low and Sell High Players

Follow@cimini

Are you the type of fantasy owner that likes to ride their team out? Advancements you do come strictly via the waiver wire as you’re too stubborn to ponder a trade. If so, you’re riding a thin line to improve as your prospects of growing to more of a complete team are being over ruled by your deficiencies to seek out a trade. A buy low and sell high philosophy is always a great strategy in business and works in the fantasy sports world as well.

Sell High

Philip Rivers
In years past it used to be the Chargers poor starts to seasons that turned heads negatively. This year they spun things positively thanks to a new regime with Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt. From a personnel standpoint not much has changed besides signing Danny Woodhead and the drafting of Keenan Allen. It’s the scheme. For the first five games yards have come aplenty for the Chargers. But they’ve never put together a true complete game, even against Philadelphia, as their defense was torched. The success the offense is having now I do not believe will continue. That will cause Rivers to press and diminish his fantasy value when the turnovers appear. Malcolm Floyd is already out, and Mathews left Sunday’s game with what appeared to be a concussion. Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown won’t cut it as tail backs. How long can the ageless wonder Antonio Gates remain at full strength? There are too many lingering questions for me to be sold on Rivers having a complete turn around season.

Hakeem Nicks
There are owners in your fantasy league that will take a New York Giants alleged stud receiver. Dating back to the days of Amani Toomer the Giants have been a boom team for receivers over the last ten to fifteen years. With Eli Manning still gunning each week the expected receivers to thrive remain Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Rueben Randle’s emergence can’t be overlooked. He is becoming a vital threat each week and digging into the stats of Nicks and Cruz. Cruz is of heavy value to the Giants with a new contract. Nicks on the other hand is continually plagued by injuries. Get what you can for him before his on the field play slides or he ends up injured.

Larry Fitzgerald
Fitz’s yardage numbers are on the decline yet again. After an impressive week one he posted three consecutive weeks of 80 yards or less. This past Sunday he failed to eclipse over 40 yards receiving. There are numerous problems reappearing for the Cardinals offense. They’re based around a poor offensive line and lack of running game. Carson Palmer’s protection has began to erode since week one and it’s causing a dip in big plays. I don’t see the Cardinals fixing their woes anytime soon and that’s a recipe for another poor Fitzgerald season.
Others: Matt Ryan, Doug Martin, Knowshown Moreno, and DeSean Jackson

Buy Low

Cam Newton
Momentum is a catalyst that Cam Newton cannot grasp early in a season. Yesterday he had the Panthers in Cardinals territory several times. On the first Panthers drive Newton had the Panthers inside the Cardinals five yard line, only to see Steve Smith drop a touchdown. A few series later the Panthers went for a fourth and one by throwing the football. It was also dropped—this time by Brandon LaFell. Pinpointing the Panthers offensive woes solely around Newton is a huge mistake. This team needs their playmakers to perform better. Arizona is always a tough team to play on their home field. While the Newton “send him to the bench” chants reign, now is the time to get yourself a steal before he re-arises on the fantasy quarterback boards.

Pierre Thomas
New Orleans is not going to have Drew Brees pull back from the center and hand the football off thirty to thirty five times a game. With the low amount of carries the Saints average Pierre Thomas can be sought for pennies. He has great flex value and even RB2 value in deeper leagues. Out of the backfield he is a constant threat in the Saints short pass attack plans. He scored a couple touchdowns Sunday doing just that.

MJD
Everything is against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Performance has been despicable and even Vegas has created a comedy of the Jaguars. Tabbing them as the biggest underdog ever for their game against Denver. Contrarian views in sports is an ability one has to foresee after all the unexpected events that continually happen. I won’t go to the extreme of saying Jacksonville will win three games, but I do think their offense will grow vastly over the next four weeks. MJD has been a premier back in the NFL for quite some time. Reach out to the MJD fantasy owner and get a bargain steal now.
Others: Joe Flacco, Russ Wilson, and TY Hilton

Top Target to Catch Ratios From Week Five Follow@cimini Vincent Brown San Diego seems to have a rhythm to their offense that is leading to a ton of yardage. Sunday against the Raiders turnovers and a lack of a running game halted success in terms of points. But the Chargers have to be thrilled at how Vincent Brown and rookie Keenan Allen are performing without Malcolm Floyd. Brown caught eight of his nine targets Sunday and can be considered a solid number two/three fantasy wide receiver from here on out. Jimmy Graham There are silly quarterback to receiver/tight end in sync chemistries that are impossible to stop. Similar to how a basketball point guard knows when to throw a cross court alley oop or take over a game is how the connection with Drew Brees to Graham is. Basically Brees is the point guard throwing alley oops to Graham. Half of Graham’s touchdowns have came on jump ball/alley oop throws that Brees knows Graham can get. The Bears were the latest to prove incapable of defending Graham as he caught ten of his eleven targets. Kendall Wright Tennessee mustered a strong comeback effort to take a 17-13 lead in the fourth quarter. Things then unraveled quickly as the Titans couldn’t stop the Chiefs rally. Fitzpatrick struggled in his debut for the Titans for the first half before getting comfortable. Wright caught six of his eight targets with an average of over twelve yards a catch. Fitzpatrick can be a successful fantasy quarterback which means Wright’s chances of having solid weeks will be available over the next month. Reggie Wayne Wayne’s yards per catch are starting to diminish but his overall skillset still has some high strong suits. A few being his route running and hands. Andrew Luck is not going to stop looking for Wayne. He caught six of his nine targets Sunday. Hakeem Nicks 0-5, yes I’ll say that again, the NY Giants are 0-5. I feel bad for Tom Coughlin but the Giants are one of those great teams that fall via the talent pool they’ve kept. Teams are constantly revamping even as a champion. The Giants are learning the hard way that they should have done the same. Nicks has regressed tremendously but has had two good games out of five. Against the Eagles he caught nine of twelve target with over 140 yards receiving. Justin Blackmon Off the bat, Blackmon score a touchdown on a long catch against the Rams. Blackmon finished last season off strong and has the tools to be a top twenty five fantasy receiver. Due to the team he is on and coming off of a suspension many people didn’t know if he’d be in football shape. The Rams have given up a ton of yards this year but don’t be alarmed into thinking Blackmon is a one week wonder. He’ll put up his stats and caught five of nine passes against the Rams. Others That Did Well: Antonio Gates 7 catches/10 targets, DeNarius Moore 5 catches/8 targets, AlShon Jeffrey 10 catches/13 targets, Brandon Pettigrew 4 catches/5 targets, TY Hilton 5 catches/6 targets, Greg Olsen 5 catches/6 targets, Ted Ginn Jr. 4 catches/5 targets, Terrence Williams 4 catches/4 targets, Vincent Brown 8 catches/9 targets, Keenan Allen 6 catches/9 targets, Josh Gordon 4 catches/6 targets Performers That Did Poor: Danny Amendola 4 catches/9 targets, Golden Tate 5 catches/11 targets, Mike Wallace 7 catches/16 targets, Steve Smith 4 catches/10 targets, Larry Fitzgerald 3 catches/6 targets, Andre Johnson 3 catches/10 targets, Robert Woods 5 catches/13 targets

Stretching the Field Post Week Five

Follow@cimini

Keenan Allen
You can classify Allen as a one week wonder based on his statistics Sunday. He was able to pick on rookie cornerback DJ Haden and a poorly ranked Raiders secondary to average over nineteen yards a catch Sunday. Allen’s rise Sunday won’t be a weekly occurrence. He should finish the year around 800 yards receiving with three to four touchdowns.

Alshon Jeffrey
Jeffrey tore apart a secondary that has held up solidly for four games. Cutler went into 2012 throw it up any play, any down like he would to Brandon Marshall. Jeffrey is coming into his own. Defenses are shielding Marshall which is allowing Jeffrey’s to flourish. For week six lines head to NFL Odds at TopBet.eu Sportsbook. Sunday, Jeffrey averaged 21 yards a catch with over 200 yards receiving. He’ll likely see more attention now from defenses after back to back great weeks.

TY Hilton
We found out who was more successful in practices at Stanford. Andrew Luck ripped apart the Seahawks secondary and Richard Sherman. They did it by using their speed receiver Hilton, who got behind the Seahawks secondary time after time. He finished the day with his best game of the season with five catches for over 140 yards with two big touchdowns.

Jimmy Graham
Recommendations are always great to look back upon when you hit a home run off of them. Back when fantasy drafts were ongoing I recommended to draft Graham as high as you can, and preferably in the first part of second rounds. No one from a receiving standpoint is coming close to Graham’s stats. He is seven yards away from 600 yards with six touchdowns. With eleven more games to play he is going to put up record numbers at the position. He finished Sunday with fourteen yards a catch.

Donnie Avery
Alex Smith is just one of those unlikeable players that continues to get things done his way. Avery is one of the Chiefs unheralded players that is getting it done alongside Smith on a weekly basis. He made a big key sideline catch in which he roasted the Titans defender with his speed on that play. They don’t throw it long often but Avery is the one catching the balls over Dwayne Bowe.

James Jones
Kill shots are expected when you have a gunslinger like Aaron Rodgers. They use to go to the likes of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Substituting more than admirably has been James Jones. He got a step on the outside of his defender and gave the Packers the comfort they needed to separate from the Lions. Four catches for over 130 yards with that long touchdown isn’t a bad afternoon.

DeSean Jackson
I was one off the Jackson band wagon heading into October. He has shown the inconsistencies to carry on a strong September through the rest of the season. It looks like he has fully embraced Chip Kelly’s offense. Maybe it’s because he is a main cog in it with his speed. Whatever it may be it is working as Jackson had another big day with nearly 19 yards a catch.

Torrey Smith
Smith seems to be on here every week. Joe Flacco threw yet another ill-advised pick six interception in the fourth quarter against Miami. This time he was able to stave off that poor play mentally and deliver the Ravens a game winning field goal. Having Smith as a receiver adds to the ills and thrills of Flacco as a Raven quarterback. Flacco is going to continue unleashing deep ball throws to Smith. They connected on six passes that resulted in over 120 yards for Smith.

Josh Gordon
Gordon’s name is on the trade market but the Browns may want to keep Gordon if they plan on drafting a new quarterback of the future next year. Gordon possesses speed to get open on any down he wants. Success with Hoyer and Weeden in back to back weeks is a strong sign the Browns need to keep him.

Others That Did Well: Julius Thomas, Dez Bryant, and Terrance Williams.