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What Calvin Johnson did in 2013 was as ridiculous a season a wide receiver can have. The closest that I can remember having a season like that was David Boston’s lone breakout year, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss’s 1998 season. For Boston and Moss that ceiling would never be replicated to that extreme. Owens was able to still be a fantasy touchdown machine for a string of years.

Owners know Johnson’s last season is long gone old news. His numbers almost single handily gave fantasy owners the gateway to a fantasy playoff birth. By having him on their team owners were able to count themselves an easy double digit checkoff week to week. And this wasn’t the normal double digit variety some receivers posted. Sky high results in standard leagues he sometimes posted high twenty to low thirty results. I won’t even step into the realm of his PPR results.

Quick trigger fantasy owners are going to be absent minded in putting any thought into Johnson’s 2014 potential season. He is megatron after all. Results don’t need to be thought upon.

Well maybe they should. As noted earlier athletes that have a premium season tend to regress some. At the position of receiver any type of downgrade can put you in the mix of ten to fifteen receivers. There just is not as high of a gap between receivers like there is in other football positions.

That has to be a factor when deciding on drafting Calvin Johnson.

Another is Johnson faced the poorest division in terms of NFL secondaries last year. Chicago and Green Bay were banged up all season in the secondary, and Minnesota’s young cornerbacks were going through growing pains. Of those nearly 1500 receiving yards, Johnson also faced the Cowboys for an all world game of nearly 300 yards receiving and the Steelers for nearly 200.

Both of those defenses were also torched consistently. To the point that quarterbacks such as Andy Dalton and every NFC East quarterback had extreme success.

Take away those key signature games and fill them in with average Johnson receiving yards, and he would have likely finished around 1150 yards receiving.

That puts him still as an elite receiver but not by a huge stretch in terms of yardage. Johnson’s never ending value comes in the area of touchdowns. He can be banked upon to reach double digit touchdowns year after year. His size and uncanny leaping ability is undeniable.

But will the rest of the NFC North finally catch up to Johnson and limit his consistent big numbers versus them? And will Johnson’s matchups in the AFC and non-division NFC teams gear up to stop him better?

It’s all a higher probability than last season.

This isn’t a bust label on Calvin Johnson. Rather it is a cautious high first round alert. Fantasy owners are becoming more unconscious with the new norm of drafting a non-running back in round one. Using that train of thought can come back to bite you in a quick hurry.

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There is a point and team where regression is bound to happen. Everyone talks about the great run done by the Patriots, but in the NFC the Saints have had a great run themselves. Even a Super Bowl in more recent history than the Patriots. Things seem to be paired well with Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton.

After a roller coaster that resulted in a season length suspension for Payton, things got right back to where the Saints left off in 2013. Payton was able to pair the offense the way he knows best and allow Drew Brees to fire all across the football field.

Once the playoffs came though Brees hit the typical wall we are accustomed to seeing. Strong defensive lines that can pressure quickly off the line of scrimmage have given Brees fits. That would happen to any quarterback but with Brees’s height it becomes more troublesome.

Check the Saints regular season losses last year. There weren’t too many, but a common link can be found. Carolina, St. Louis, Seattle, and the Jets all had ferocious top defensive lines. By bottling up Brees’s pocket they limited the Saints passing attack to just four touchdowns in those four regular season games.

Successful systems can string together for a long time. But sooner or later a great coaching and quarterback duo hits that inevitable wall. Brees came to the Saints and did much more than anticipated. Age is undeniable. From a player standpoint and coaching standpoint.

The new age of the division is set to overtake the Saints just like the division did two years ago when Payton was suspended. Winning the first five games and seven of the first nine could partly be placed on Payton’s return and the Saints feeding off of it.

Expect this season to be a bit different and for the Saints to be a borderline playoff team. This will be a good team to take the under on total regular season wins.

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Watching the Dolphins last year as a fan you should of turned games off in the fourth quarter. An average season turned on several fourth quarters in which they let leads vanish. It was as if Miami could not hit that next gear offensively to over take a game. Playing it safe could work for three quarters before the opposing team would outplay the Dolphins.

Miami had to experience the dramatic losses they did if they wanted to entrust Ryan Tannehill as their future quarterback. Young starting quarterbacks are bound to make mistakes, and Tannehill made his share of alarming ones. By holding the football too long he had costly fumbles, including one against the Buffalo Bills, that would have netted Miami a win.

This will be a telling year for the Dolphins to see if they can entrust Tannehill 100 percent as the main signal caller. At times he would play outstanding. Delivering laser throws as he did in an early win at Indianapolis. Consistency just wasn’t up to par of a starting quarterback. You can say his play was comparable to old starting quarterback Chad Henne. Games mixed in with promise just weren’t enough to offset the common results.

The surprising early start from the Dolphins won’t shock anybody like it did in 2013. Teams will be prepared to rattle Ryan Tannehill and see if he has improved on his check downs throws. An area Miami hopes to see a boost in is in their running game. By adding Knowshown Moreno Miami hopes they can deliver the same triple threat the Broncos were able to emulate. Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are still young backs but have shown they need a veteran starter ahead of them.

From a fantasy standpoint, Tannehill ranks as a high teen to low 20’s quarterback. For now. At times he has shown he can be a backup fantasy quarterback in situational matchups. The opportunity to rise higher is there for Tannehill if he is ready. I’m not sure he is just yet. I’d expect Miami to ease him into the 2014 season, and continue to play the ball control style they exhibited in 2013. But if the Dolphins are hovering around .500 again they are going to need to flip the switch with Tannehill.

This is the point of the season that owners may be able to gamble on Tannehill more as a fantasy option. Miami will test their investments worth and see if Tannehill can lead them beyond a mediocre season.

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A summer goes by quick. Football fanatics consider this season their restless time period. Reading up on daily information for fantasy football drafts can only feed their football needs for so long. Trash talking fills the void for a few weeks and then preseason football finally takes over.

One area that can be a temporary look ahead for die-hard football fans is the week one odds that are already out.

It’s crazy to consider that you could place a bet on an NFL game three months from now. But in Las Vegas there are many people that will head to the ticket window and place a bet now. Some are locals that consider the line value worthy of a bet now. Others are tourists in town and figure they’ll make a return trip down the road to possibly cash out.

I’ve never been one to look ahead on lines because of sudden injuries and lackluster performances from teams of a year ago. But this year may be different. A lot of NFL teams haven’t changed the nucleus of their teams as in years past. Many coaches remain and the format is there to anticipate possible line value.

Here are just a few games that I believe there lies value on in week one.

St. Louis Rams vs Minnesota Vikings
This current line sits at -6 in favor of the St. Louis Rams. Teams that looked awful to conclude seasons typically roll that over into the next. Minnesota was one of the worst teams to finish out the second half of the year. Part of that had to do with their unsettling situation at quarterback. Freeman-Ponder-Cassel. None proved to be worthy of the starting job. Thus the Vikings drafted Teddy Bridgewater to hopefully solidify their quarterback issues. St. Louis on the other hand started to look like a true contender to be reckoned with as the season waned. Especially at home where they blew out teams such as the Bears and Colts. Jeff Fisher has this team primed to excel. Who knows who the Vikings will roll out as starter week one.

One can assume that it will be Matt Cassel. Veterans with average talent tend to struggle looking over their shoulder. That will be the case for Cassel as his days as starter will be numbered for Bridgewater. With a new coaching staff most players will be on a short leash. There just is too many roster moves the Vikings will be overhauling while the Rams have their teams intact.

Total San Diego vs Arizona of 44.5
Last year San Diego was one of the dreadful teams to watch offensively. They had a methodical way of doing things that sometimes won games and others caused problems. Due to the NFL’s high rate of scoring this line is basically at the median average. Simple enough to likely not attract eyes in June or July. Being formerly from Arizona I know enough about this Cardinals team to know they are a slow starting team.

Both of these teams have sound defenses, and veteran offenses. That should equate to simplistic offense in hopes of winning the game in the fourth quarter. One should know not to trust either Carson Palmer or Philip Rivers in September. This game should have the biggest shift in opening spread differential to gameday.

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The 49ers were supposed to be the team to represent the NFC in many football fans minds last season. They came close but could not supplant their divisional rivals in the Seattle Seahawks. As division foes the stage is set for Russ Wilson and Colin Kaepernick to face each other for many years.

Seattle designed the perfect system to keep Russ Wilson’s inexperience an actual advantage for him. Designing basic scrambles and creative rollouts allotted for Wilson to have the comfortability he needed. Sometimes it looked like total chaos seeing Wilson take off, but in the end it worked.

Pete Carroll and his staff had a basic offense in which the personnel understood their roles. San Francisco had the same formula as the Seahawks defensively but lacked the consistency offensively. That largely revolved around the 49ers not knowing how they wanted to use Colin Kaepernick. Their game plan for Kaepernick seemed to let him evolve as a pocket passing quarterback. Opposite of what Russ Wilson did freelancing as a runner, Kaepernick hardly tucked the football and ran with it.

Instead mistakes or poor games throwing the football would be the result. As the season started to wane , coach Harbaugh and Kaepernick began to get back to Kaepernick’s rookie season ways. He was running the football more and as a result the offense was not bogging down nearly as much.

Fantasy football enthusiasts and draft participants likely have Kaepernick labeled as a downgrade quarterback. Last year’s results left a lot to be desired, but the potential is still there. As the saying goes you can’t wait for results, by then someone else will have the rewards of your wait and see approach.

Go back to twelve months ago and your mentality on Kaepernick would be labeled with promise. The 2013 season was both questionable on the 49ers staff and Kaepernick’s. Keep in mind though that last season was his first full season as a starter.

Year two as a full time starter should see leaps and bounds from Kaepernick in all phases. While the media will likely push his offseason story further, there is no doubt that Kaepernick and his teammates are ready to propel past the Seahawks. They played well enough defensively in the NFC Championship game, and were a final big play away offensively.

While others may be downgraded Kaepernick, keep him high on your fantasy football draft charts.

Source: cheatsheetwarroom.com