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Just like ESPN’s show Numbers Never Lie, sometimes you have to ignore opinion and focus on the numbers. Andrew Luck has led some great comebacks and has had some dazzling throws in his young career. But he has also had some disastrous games that seem to be forgotten when the media hypes him up.

Luck seems poised all the time even if he makes a mistake. The problem is when he makes a mistake it usually tailspins into a horrific multi-interception game. Obviously he either can’t block out his mistakes or just lets his turnovers get to him too much.

It’s not like Luck is out there throwing a high amount of touchdown passes to offset this trend either. Luck ranked just 15th in touchdown passes a year ago with 23. Quarterbacks such as Ryan Tannehill, Russ Wilson, and Carson Palmer threw more touchdowns than Luck.

The way the media hypes Luck you’d think he had been to the Super Bowl already. The talent is there but fantasy football draftees need to hold the projections of the media back when drafting.

There are a few variables to consider that may even hurt Luck in 2014. One the Colts all but abandoned their running game last season. With the woes of Trent Richardson and not a suitable backup, the Colts lacked the fire power to help Luck. That may change this season if Richardson recommits himself but that could also hurt Luck’s overall yardage numbers and touchdown results.

The Colts do not run a fast tempo offense that the Broncos, Saints, Cowboys, and other teams with fantasy friendly stats do.

I do not think Luck warrants a top five to eight fantasy consideration at quarterback just yet. He is likely going to remain in the ten to thirteen range until the stalwarts in the top five retire.

If you’re one that waits to draft a quarterback like an old school draftee, do it with caution. Luck’s stats aren’t likely to fluctuate to a higher draw from what we saw in 2013.

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Arian Foster’s decline a year ago has been seen time and time again from the position of running back. Outstanding seasons suddenly get abruptly halted from injuries. Foster had shaken off a few injury bugs in prior seasons to still perform. In 2013 though they piled up to the brink that he told Hannah Storm in a recent interview he pondered retirement.

The tread on Foster’s legs and body is definitely not the same from most 27 year old backs. In college Foster was a four-year guy and carried the ball enough to break all-time records at Tennessee. Though undrafted, Foster ended up in a prime position in Houston with the likes of Steve Slaton.

Not too often will you find a second year back not drafted as the feature back. He relished the role and received a mega contract most backs don’t get until his current age now.

Foster’s track record sort of gives the vibe that he is a 30 year old back. Fantasy owners are likely leery of the Texan back, but I’d give him strong upside as a top tier fantasy back. Even though the Texans do not have a stud quarterback, the offense will still move fluid enough to garner Foster a higher ranking than he currently is averaging (10th).

For those not registering the possibility of Foster being a top five back again, consider this. Jamaal Charles fell back pretty hard in rankings when he suffered a serious knee injury and missed an entire season. He came back at full strength and now is considered the top fantasy back with his duel abilities.

His climb back to the top has left an absent minded void to perennial fantasy football owners. The age of Charles and Foster are the same, 27.

If Charles can return from a far and away more serious of an injury, than why is Foster receiving such a steep downgrade? Sure he doesn’t offer the same bang for the dollar that he once did out of the backfield, but he is still a great rusher and double digit type of touchdown producer.

Houston felt comfortable enough to part ways with Ben Tate and allot room for a downgrade in the second running back position in Andre Brown. I look for Foster to quiet his skeptics and work his way back into solidifying himself as a top five fantasy running back. Consider him a steal if you get him in the early to mid second round.

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Fantasy football consists of many variables, but proper talent evaluation is one of the strongest keys. Some fantasy owners get overly consumed with the top portion of a fantasy football draft. They’re locked in on getting the hot names from a year ago in the first five rounds of their draft.

Similar to NFL Drafts teams hit or miss in the first three to four rounds. Due diligence though and often times they draft better personnel from the same position in later rounds. You have to be prepared to fill out your entire roster with quality depth.

What area is often overlooked by fantasy owners is drafting a veteran or two. So many fantasy owners get soaked into the fact of getting the big names, the preseason fads, and rookies. Drafting too many rookies and high upside players leaves you vulnerable. You’re more than likely keying in on the waiver wire or pulling a trade within the first month of the season.

There’s nothing wrong with drafting a player or two that is obviously regressing statistically. Though the upside isn’t strong you have a realistic idea of what that athlete will likely do. Having a strong RB3 or WR3/4 can come from this strategy. Think of players such as Terrell Owens, Curtis Martin, Hines Ward, and LT. They all provided solid value at declining ages and non-fantasy starting roles.

The same can be had nowadays. Take a strong look at veterans like MJD, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson.

They all likely have a negative perspective in the minds of your fantasy football cohorts. I’m not saying draft a team full of veterans. But plugging a couple of guys with experience is similar to what key organizations do in all sports. Bringing in veterans gives your team a bit of stability. Do that for yourself this year instead of attempting to rotate the never ending one week wonder off of waivers.

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Ray Rice is coming off his worst season as a professional in 2013. On top of that he has created his own issues off the field and will serve a two game suspension. Upon returning to the Ravens lineup in week three fantasy football owners have to decide his value. According to fantasy football “experts” they have him downgraded in the bottom 20’s and lower 30’s for fantasy running backs.

That’s awfully low for a guy that still will receive over 200 carries and netted 1,000 yards rushing and receiving. Compared to his prior seasons in the NFL a drop in fantasy rankings was dictated. His production as a 1,000 yard back and 6-700 yards receiving fell too ultra lows.

Owners stayed patient with him for the majority of the season expecting a turn around at some point. With results unchanged in a sixteen game season it seems all fantasy pundits have wrote off Rice–in affect he has hit the running back wall.

At this low of value Rice could be considered a steal. Certainly as a back rated in the high 20’s to low 30’s he is considered a non-fantasy football starter in ten/twelve team leagues. This makes him an intriguing prospect in my eyes. Of course I did not own him in any of my leagues last year, therefore, I’m not a bitter buyer of Rice.

One back Rice could imitate in terms of fantasy football is Matt Forte. Forte, after an impressive rookie season faded back in years two and three. Most considered him a non-starter as year four came around. A new offense and personnel vastly changed Forte’s value.

Obviously the Ravens have been in a reconstructive phase offensively. Rice was their primary weapon for several years and teams were ready for that finally a season ago. That coupled with Joe Flacoo’s struggles with inadequate receiving weapons, left a team hindered offensively.

I’m not saying Ray Rice is going to surge back to a top five fantasy running back. I am saying that he can get himself back into the range of a top 20 back.

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– Fred Jackson- Age has always been a negative when a running back eclipses 30. For Jackson this trend has been correct the past couple of seasons. Once an out of nowhere fantasy stud he has dipped back into the unwanted running back. Injuries have held him back but 2014 could be an upswing for Jackson. His mileage is still low even for his age. Buffalo was one of the first teams to do a time share backfield even as far back as Willis McGahee and Marshawn Lynch. Owners of CJ Spiller know that his work load is as sporadic as it gets. Jackson could surprise some especially in the touchdown category, if the Bills offense maneuvers well.

– Stephan Taylor- Arizona has never been a haven for running backs. They’ve tried over the years with Thomas Jones, Emmitt Smith, Edgerrin James, Beanie Wells, Michael Pittman, and Rashad Mendenhall. An odd mix of drafted backs and second stop running backs. All struggled and have left the Cardinals dependent yet again in the backfield. This year they’re set to entrust their young backs in Andre Ellington and Taylor. Ellington seems destined for a breakout year but Taylor will get a sustained share of carries.

-Vick Ballard- The Colts likely would have saved themselves a first round pick if Ballard did not get hurt last season. Injuries at running back caused the Colts to reach for Trent Richardson. At first people were stunned at how quick the Browns let Richardson go. After a handful of games it was evident why they did so. Ballard is listed as the second back on paper, but may surge past Richardson if he continues to struggle.

– Lamar Miller- Some backs are system backs. Knowshown Moreno is going to have to prove the skeptics wrong. He had a great year for Denver a season ago and got the paycheck he wanted from Miami. The first portion of his rookie contract with Denver left a lot to be desired though. Miller is in the same situation that Moreno was in Denver. He has had the opportunities as a young back but didn’t cash in. His rookie deal still has two years left on it but he needs to show this year if he can cut it. If not Miami may cut him and draft a young back to build off of in 2015.

Others: Jonathan Stewart, Ka’Deem Carey, Terrance West, Ronnie Hillman, Shane Vereen, Khiry Robinson, Andre Williams, Bilal Powell, MJD, LeGarrette Blount, Mike James, and Bishop Sankey

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Dynasty leagues continue to grow in popularity. Having the authority to retain players is the essence of being a general manager. Standard leagues owners can make mistakes and file for bankruptcy the following year—full clearance to redraft and disown their past mistakes. While in a dynasty league you would need to dig yourself out of mistakes by trying to grab young athletes.

Preparation for the future is also a must in a dynasty league. You may have a Tom Brady or elite veteran quarterback keeping you atop, but in a few years who is to say Brady is relevant still?

Here are the top ten dynasty league quarterbacks (QB’s in the league four years or less) for potential and upside.

1. Colin Kaepernick-
Kaepernick has the vote of confidence from the 49ers with his new contract. Unlike Mike Vick and other mobile quarterbacks of the past, Kaepernick has great size. He’ll be able to take the licks that other quarterbacks couldn’t. Look for Kaepernick’s progression to start to come to fruition in 2014.

2. Andrew Luck-
As Luck’s years progress he’ll lose the current mobility he uses to rank ahead of Kaepernick now. Where he’ll stay out in front of the rest of the league is with his arm and pocket presence. Indianapolis has always been great at keeping a steady group of consistent receivers.

3. Nick Foles-
Assuming Chip Kelly remains a coach in Philadelphia this pair should be a connection for awhile. Kelly’s offense showed last year it had no problem transitioning to the NFL. Counting on Foles to slump could appear for a mini stretch, but not enough to force him out of a top twelve fantasy quarterback.

4. RG3-
We may never see the RG3 from his rookie season. A second blownout knee just may be the dagger to that. He has the arm strength to be a flourishing passer. He just needs to convince Washington that.

5. Cam Newton-
Newton and the Panthers may have been the top team for blanketing their inefficiencies last season. Carolina won a bunch of games last year with ball control game plans. Sooner or later the team will need to find out if Newton can carry the team when needed.

6. Russ Wilson-
Wilson is who he is. I don’t think he’ll ever be a top tier fantasy quarterback. Similar to Eli Manning in his Super Bowl days, I’d expect Wilson to range between the ten to sixteen fantasy range.

7. Johnny Manziel-
The unknown is with Manziel. His maturation will be before our eyes in no time. Barring injury I fully expect him to rise to the occasion. He’ll continue to find a way to utilize his mobility and uncanniness to create on the run. It may take awhile for the Browns to be a playoff contender, but they’ll have new fans each and every week.

8. Ryan Tannehill
9. EJ Manuel
10. Teddy Bridgewater