Potential Fourth Quarter Killers Week Eight

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Week eight has six teams on bye week with the Bears, Titans, Colts, Chargers, Ravens, and Texans. That makes it even ever more important that you choose a viable fantasy football starter for Thursday and Monday’s games. Some of you are right on the fringe of getting into your league’s fantasy football playoff picture.

Here are some fourth quarter killer opportunity starters to use in week eight.

Mike Tolbert

Tolbert’s performance this past week against the Rams would of likely got some other running backs benched in the NFL. With the Panthers pinned on their own one yard line, Tolbert stutter stepped to find a hole, instead of lunging forward. It cost the Panthers a safety which could have been a tailspin negative effect. Luckily for Tolbert it wasn’t. Clearly the Panthers love to utilize Tolbert in short yardage situations. It has led to Tolbert getting the one yard plunging touchdowns that use to go to Cam Newton. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Tolbert get an increased work load in the fourth quarter, on top of his normal goal line and short yardage duties.

Jordan Cameron

Cameron has been awfully quiet the past few weeks as Brandon Weeden has put on multiple poor performances. A game against Kansas City isn’t going to be much easier on Weeden’s psyche. An area the Browns need to re-attack to give Weeden some confidence is throwing the football back to Cameron. It seemed when Josh Gordon returned from suspension and had a few breakout games, that the Browns shifted their passing game focus to Gordon. If a blowout occurs in this contest, I would expect Cameron to get easy targets with a relaxed Chiefs prevent defense.

Brian Hartline

Tom Brady hardly ever loses back to back games. In fact he usually comes out firing to avenge the prior week’s loss. A majority of Patriots losses during Tom Brady’s career could be traced to the Patriots defensive let downs. Against the Jets it was Brady that struggled against the Jets pressure and had a costly pick-six with an eleven point lead. Miami has back tracked considerably since a 3-0 start. Ryan Tannehill has been a turnover machine and the Dolphins can’t establish a ground game. One go to guy for Tannehill has been Hartline. Expect Hartline to get ample targets late and be a fourth quarter fantasy contributor.

Le’Veon Bell

After a month on the job it appears that enough has been learned on Terrelle Pryor’s skillset. In the second half against the Chargers the offense went to shutdown mode, even though they held on to victory. Against Kansas City, Pryor had a successful first quarter before the Chiefs adjusted to shutdown Pryor’s running capabilities. Without his legs Pryor is not savvy enough yet to be a passing quarterback. It led to an unsettled offense and an atrocious interception thrown by Pryor in the second half against Kansas City. I suspect that Pryor’s woes will linger over against a Steelers team now on a two game winning streak. Le’Veon Bell has been a mini catalyst for the Steelers offense and should get a heavy workload in the second half against the Raiders.

Michael Floyd

If you could label a young Vincent Jackson molded receiver in the NFL—Michael Floyd would fit that bill. He is a tall athletic target that can possess the football over smaller defensive backs. Atlanta has struggled in many areas on defense this year. Matt Ryan struggled a year ago against the Cardinals with several first half interceptions. This should be a good matchup but I expect Carson’s week to week woes to position the Falcons nicely. Floyd will probably have an all around quality game that turns into a great one based on his fourth quarter stats.
Others: Jared Cook, Greg Jennings, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, Terrence Williams, and Khiry Robinson

Week Seven Automatics/Don’t Do Its Follow@cimini

Automatics

Josh Freeman I’m going to green light a Josh Freeman start for those searching for an out of the ordinary week at the fantasy quarterback position. Freeman thus far this year has been more of a tabloid spectacle then a performer, but a new environment should translate to success on the field. A toxic environment no matter what work profession is going to be a recipe for non-success for both sides. This is the perfect first start for Freeman to have. The New York Giants have not been able to stop anyone all season. Freeman has the arm to make targets Greg Jennings, Jerome Simpson, and Kyle Rudolph fantasy friendly every week. Eddie Lacy Last Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens Lacy was the main show to witness in a game that had little offense for several quarters. With injuries to Jones and Cobb, Green Bay will turn more into a running team for the next several weeks. That may be a good thing to build the team’s overall confidence. Don’t forget the year the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2010, it all started with the Packers resorting to running the football with success in the second half of the season when they turned the carries over to James Starks. Nick Foles They say all you need is the opportunity and right circumstances to overtake a position in sports. Foles has that for the second consecutive week while Mike Vick nurses a sore hamstring. What better way to showcase you’re the right guy for the job, than to get two consecutive wins for a team that was below .500 beforehand? Foles gets the chance to light up a Dallas secondary prone at giving up the big plays. Lamar Miller By now most fantasy football owners are probably ready to write off Miller and the chance of a sleeper type season for him. Part of Miami’s struggles with consecutive losses before their bye week was the inability to establish or sustain the running game. At 3-2 this a decisive game for Miami to propel themselves back into playoff consideration against Buffalo. During the winning streak of 3-0, Miami was riding the arm of Ryan Tannehill, it led to the downside of their last two losses. Look for Miami to get Miller going against a Buffalo team traveling on the road after a hard fought overtime loss at home against Cincinnati. Reggie Wayne I think the impact of this matchup of Peyton Manning vs Andrew Luck is hyped for all the right reasons. But a guy being forgotten in this is Reggie Wayne. Wayne is linked to Manning right behind Marvin Harrison as his favorite target during his career. It’s not like Wayne is at the twilight stages of his career. He is still performing at an elite level and will want to show that he is the best receiver on the field, not DeMaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker. Others: Donnie Avery, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Garcon, and Larry Fitzgerald

Don’t Do Its

Russ Wilson Revenge is never in disguise. The Cardinals will be coming hard after Russ Wilson and trying to avenge their blowout , 58-0, loss from a year ago. Wilson has rushed the football ten or more times four of the last five Seahawks games. A year ago he only ran the ball over ten times once. He is having issues in the pocket throwing the ball because his receivers cannot get open frequently. Look for the Cardinals to attack with lots of blitzes to try and get Wilson to commit to mistakes. I don’t think he’ll have the success running the ball which downgrades his fantasy value. CJ Spiller The game will come that Spiller has an all-world fantasy game, but do you want to count on a 15 yard per carry average for him to do so? Buffalo has relegated Spiller’s carries. He is lucky if he’ll surpass twelve carries on any game at this rate. So in order for him to be a mega success he needs to run the football for an outrageous yards per carry average. If it were not for his big touchdown run against Cleveland owners would be on the verge of permanent seating Spiller on their bench. Tom Brady Brady and the Patriots are finding ways to win and they’ll look to do so again this week against the Jets. Rex Ryan has typically been solid at devoting great schemes to combat the Patriots run and gun offense. The personnel just isn’t there for Tom Brady to have success week in and week out. These two teams just played a month ago, and not much has changed from a personnel standpoint. With the Jets likely able to stuff the Patriots rush attack, it may be a long frustrating day for Brady under center. Andy Dalton Year one as a starter, Dalton did not look like a rookie in certain games. A few years later and it’s appearing that Dalton is who he is. He is not the type of quarterback that can take his game further and to another level. Therefore, defenses are able to pick up on his demeanor and read him more and more as a quarterback. It’s going to create a burden for the offense and a decline that hurts the team. Green Bay is excelling right now on defense and does not present a good matchup for Dalton. Ryan Matthews One good game and fantasy owners want to consider Matthews a fantasy stud worthy RB1 the rest of the year. As Lee Corso says….not so fast. Matthews has had plenty of time to showcase if he is a viable running back or not. This scenario needs no review. Matthews is capable of carrying the ball twelve to fifteen times a game, for a mediocre dependable average between sixty and seventy yards. San Diego transformed themselves against Indianapolis to a team that wanted to milk the clock and protect the lead. It worked but that game plan is one that the Chargers got away with because they’ve never used that type of plan. It won’t fool future opponents on the schedule, and I don’t think the Chargers will attempt it again. Others: Colin Kapernick, RG3, Sam Bradford, and Josh Gordon

Week Seven Fourth Quarter Killers

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The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals kick things off in week seven tomorrow night. It’s vital to have all types of aspects ready to go for your lineups. Key stars mixed with best shots to outdo their normal fantasy numbers is the recipe for a win. Athletes that can outdo their fantasy numbers can come from teams trailing big—-fourth quarter garbage stats. Here are some athletes that can shine largely in the fourth quarter.

Ryan Tannehill
Buffalo has been decimated with injuries defensively and at the quarterback position. Miami is coming off a bye week and will look to get back on the winning track. During Miami’s three wins sometimes it would take Tannehill until the fourth quarter to really thrive. I wouldn’t be shocked for Miami to be down slightly in the fourth before Tannehill wakes up and brings the team back with a big performance.

Cam Newton
Unlike other quarterbacks with a big lead, Cam Newton’s stats usually grow. It’s as if he is trying to make up for the lackluster performances he has had in other games. Against the Giants and Vikings, Newton had a big part of his fantasy success days in the second half with a sizeable lead. The Rams are still a very vulnerable team that Cam Newton should be able to finally have back to back solid games.

Josh Gordon
Gordon has cracked the top ten fantasy receiver lists on several occasions and might be making himself a permanent fixture in those rankings. Last year he was getting behind secondary’s with ease and was just a big play receiver. This year Cleveland has mixed in all types of routes that are getting him more involved with the offense on every down. He is a big receiver that is looking for that big contract…..and will get it. This weekend’s game against the Green Bay Packers may be closer than people think, but Gordon should continue to have a high impact.

Andre Johnson
The Chiefs defense has been gaining steam as the season goes further, while the offense seems to be regressing. An odd mix but it’s working and the Chiefs have not had to play from behind except for a few minutes against Tennessee. Houston’s quarterback woes are not going to go away in a matter of days, which does not bode well for either Matt Schaub or TJ Yates keeping this game competitive. Where there will be a fantasy green light will be with Andre Johnson. The aging receiver already has forty four caught balls and near 450 yards receiving. He should churn up some more late in this game.

Reggie Wayne
Everyone is talking about the second year quarterback in Andrew Luck having a chance to face the quarterback he replaced in Peyton Manning and vice versa. What about Wayne facing his old quarterback that threw him the football all but two years of his career? Wayne will be the key guy to watch for offensively against a Denver team that allowed 48 points to Dallas and then 190 yards receiving to Justin Blackmon a week ago.

Others: Justin Blackmon, Nic Foles, Tony Romo, DeSean Jackson, and Michael Floyd

Upgrades/Downgrades for Situational Starters, Roster Depth, and Flex Positions

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Upgrades

Kembrell Thompkins
Thompkins has slowly become a viable weekly fantasy starter over the last four games. Since the New York Jets game he has been a go to target for Tom Brady. With Danny Amendola leaving Sunday’s game with an apparent concussion, Thompkins may continue to be Brady’s top target until Gronk is back.
Eddie Lacy
Who would of thought the Packers would be able to run the football with a platoon of running backs? They’ve been getting it done with Starks, Franklin, and Lacy all season long. With injuries to the Packers receivers they’ll likely turn to it even more. If Lacy stays healthy you have to consider him a top twelve fantasy back now.

Larry Fitzgerald
Fitzgerald fantasy owners were patient with him while he played through a hamstring injury. His explosiveness returned Sunday as he ran for a 70-plus yard touchdown and was involved in the passing game at a higher level. Hopefully his hamstring won’t be a reoccurring issue. When close to 100 percent Fitzgerald is a top fifteen fantasy wide receiver.

Justin Blackmon
How a guy misses four games, plays two, and is right in the thick of things for top wide receiver stats is beyond me. And Blackmon has done this with Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert as his quarterbacks. It’s looking like Blackmon’s last season at Oklahoma State with how he is performing on a weekly basis on the field.

DeMarco Murray
Murray’s shown to be a Darren McFadden type even when he returns from an injury. His level of play declines after an injury during the season. He has to be dropped from an RB1 to an RB2 and maybe lower if his performance suffers.

Others: Knowshown Moreno, Keenan Allen, Trent Richardson, Nick Foles, Terrance Williams, and Andre Ellington

Downgrades

Le’Veon Bell
Bell had a quality first game as a Steeler with two touchdowns against the Vikings. But his yards per carry is not where you would like it to be. Unless the Steelers are inside the five yard line there is little fantasy value for Bell right now. Going into week seven of the fantasy season you can’t have high question marks like Bell that you’re unsure of. Until that breakout game comes yardage wise he has to be downgraded.

Chris Johnson
Have we seen any long runs from CJ2K yet? No. It’s a sad fate for top prominent backs a few years after their top campaigns. Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, LT, etc. the list goes on. Yet fantasy owners will keep drafting Johnson as an RB2 thinking he can get that magic back. It’s over. His flex spot has to be considered up in the air even unless you’re in a deep fantasy league.

Colin Kapernick
The apparent lack of receivers to get open is starting to create a weekly imprint to Kapernick’ overall performance. He isn’t having the same rhythm on series to series that he did a year ago. I don’t believe it’s because of a sophomore slump either. He just doesn’t have the capable weapons on the outside for him to throw a comfortable football. Vernon Davis had well over 60 percent of Kapernick’s passing yards Sunday. Michael Crabtree can’t get back on the field soon enough.

Others: Doug Martin, Greg Jennings, Ben Tate, and Anquan Boldin

Week Six Automatics/Don’t Do Its

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Automatics

Jay Cutler
A couple of weeks ago Drew Brees got revenge for his 2010 dismal performance against the Cardinals with a blowout win. Now, Jay Cutler gets his chance tonight. In 2010, he was sacked NINE times in one half and couldn’t make it back on the field for the second half. Cutler can put his foot on the gas in this one in a game against the winless Giants.

CJ Spiller
The game is coming where Spiller unleashes and has the breakout game fantasy owners have been waiting for. It may come this week for the reason that the Bills will have to strip away a bulk of their pass plays. Some teams have had success against the Bengals rushing the football; including the Packers with Jonathan Franklin.

Steve Smith
Smith had a disastrous game last week against Arizona. The type of game that would lead you to believe maybe he can’t cut it as a wide receiver number one. Smith will respond this week against a poor Vikings secondary and dispel that notion.
Others: Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, Pierre Thomas, and RGIII

Don’t Do It

Willis Mcgahee
McGahee has had a heavy workload since being signed right off the streets. And it hasn’t led to stellar stats. He is averaging less than four yards a carry and seems to be taking a beating in the process. Detroit is not the type of team to run the football against if you don’t possess some slash to your style of running.

Larry Fitzgerald
I haven’t seen any change in the Cardinals offense that would lead me to believe starting Fitz would be wise. The team has typically started seasons off strong by relying on their defense. Right around week six is when the big dip occurs as the defense starts breaking down. Offensively, Bruce Arians needs to set up some big pass plays that were supposed to be included in the Cardinals offense.

Philip Rivers
I like how Rivers has stormed back to be fantasy relevant after two declining years. His new coordinators and coach have played the big role in that. Indianapolis just isn’t a good matchup for Philip. Indianapolis should be able to get out to an early lead, which will lead to Rivers pressing. Sit him this week and find another option.

Others: Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Russ Wilson, Reggie Bush and Matt Schaub

UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES FOR ROSTER FLEX, BENCH DEPTH, AND BORDERLINE STARTERS

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Upgrades

Terrelle Pryor Pryor is showing enough with his legs to warrant fantasy consideration as a borderline starter. Hold the inserts into your starting lineups just a tad bit more. He’ll need to show consistency for four complete quarters before he gets the bump up. As of now though he is an adequate fill in if needed for bye week or injuries with an asterisk on the uptrend. Bilal Powell Powell appears to be entering that fantasy realm where Alfred Morris was a year ago. A back that shouldn’t be a top ten to twelve fantasy running back but may crack it because of the system he is in. He has a great offensive line and a system that flourishes off the running game. The best games for Powell are ahead of him. Antonio Gates While Jimmy Graham treads to astronomical territories for tight end statistics, Antonio Gates is having a comeback year. I was one that didn’t believe Gates would get back to this type of level. After two consecutive years of down numbers it appeared his injury woes and age would continue his downfall. Similar to the way Tony Gonzalez kept at it, Gates has as well. He has transformed from a smooth effortless tight end to one that uses his size and nimbleness to outwit defenders. Jerome Simpson The Vikings didn’t bait to trade for Josh Freeman and still landed him. Sounds like a move they did years back to land Brett Favre. No one can perform under the scrutiny and non-belief of your abilities as were the situations with Freeman in Tampa Bay. I love the fact that the Vikings are not inserting Freeman right away this Sunday. He gets a chance to breathe in soak in this new opportunity. Something the Raiders did not do when they acquired Carson Palmer via a trade two years ago. Freeman doesn’t have to be an all-world quarterback in Minnesota. If Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel could find success with the Vikings than Freeman can as well. With confidence Freeman had Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams as fantasy studs. The same should happen with Simpson and Greg Jennings. Others: Alshon Jeffrey, TY Hilton, James Jones and Vernon Davis

Downgrades

Mike Wallace Wallace was never a high catch per game fantasy juggernaut. Miami’s offense isn’t predicated on any main strengths. They seem to be winging it every series hoping for success. I don’t like that recipe as the season stretches on. The Fins’ need to find a neutralizer of go to plays and players to perform them. Wallace can be that guy but it appears that Tannehill and Wallace need an offseason to get on the same page. Based on Wallace’s targets per receptions it’s obvious these two need to build a stronger connection. Larry Fitzgerald I’m not knocking Fitzgerald’s skillset but he is on a team that strangles his talents. If you’ve watched Arizona this year, Carson Palmer is under extreme duress every passing down. It’s to the point that Palmer will likely be sidelined with an injury before the end of this month. It has happened a couple of times as a Bengal and even last year as a Raider. Pocket passers need protection to succeed and Arizona doesn’t have the line or running game to sustain that. Fitzgerald has to be downgraded after four straight games of poor yardage totals. Danny Woodhead Kudos to Ken Whisenhunt for implementing a quick strike passing attack. Plays have been implemented to ensure Philip Rivers gets rid of the football much quicker than he has in years past. That philosophy is going to take a hit with Ryan Matthews now out for at least a month. Woodhead showed in New England that he can’t handle twenty or more plays on the field. Quite frankly Ronnie Brown’s in the Chargers system based more on his mental strengths for pass protection than he is as a rusher. That means Woodhead has to try and be a feature back for the next month. His effectiveness as a pass catcher has to diminish quite a bit now and may be levied off for the rest of the season. Doug Martin Of all rookie quarterbacks to get starts over the last two to three years I believe Mike Glennon is right near the bottom from a talent standpoint. You have the Buccaneers organization mired with controversy. They had a locker room MRSA virus outbreak that affected two players. On top of that the team seems to be rebelling against head coach Greg Schiano. No team has performed worse offensively than the Buccaneers. Discounting one drive against the NY Jets the offense has done absolutely squat against the Patriots, Buccaneers, and Saints. With Glennon in, even more attention can be placed on Martin. The workload may prove to be too much for the second year back. Others: Eli Manning, Dwayne Bowe, Tavon Austin, and Marshawn Lynch