Automatic/Don’t Do It

Fantasy Preview: Jags vs. Colts

Wednesday, 16 December, 2009

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Thursday night football thus far has proved to be lackluster. Teams rustiness has been evident and on full display. Considering the Indianapolis Colts are coming off a strong game that had lots of physicality they might not be worried about the glory of an undefeated season. They’re banged up and based on the listed players on their injury report in need of some extended rest. It’s hurt them in the past with quick exits out of the playoffs but this time around it’s a must to find a way to rest their players.

Traditionally the Colts and Jaguars have played stellar games together. The Jaguars still have an outside shot at making the playoffs and will try to get out early on the Colts. Jacksonville has the factor back in Maurice Jones-Drew that has lit up the Colts since he has bore a Jaguar uniform. Overall total yards he has averaged nearly 200 yards a game versus the Colts in their last six match ups.

Playing this game on a Thursday has huge beneficial factors to it. If they can get a win they will have a full ten days of rest before another prime time game against the Patriots. Seemingly they can treat Friday-Tuesday almost like a mini bye week. If they can regroup and pull through they could give themselves a spark to finish the year strong and do their part in shaping their playoff hopes.

One player that surely won’t rest this week is Peyton Manning. He will ignore Jim Caldwell’s requests unless they get up big on the Jaguars. Manning’s seen the melt downs come playoff time countless times. Nothing is worse than having a near perfect regular season and then seeing that body of work be canceled off. The Colts went through a dangerous lull offensively this past week against the Broncos. Manning threw three interceptions in a span of ten passes while only completing one. That is exactly a stretch the Colts can ill afford to have once January comes around.

With his young group of receivers in Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, and Anthony Gonzalez; Manning will use these last three games to work out game speed kinks and timing with his receivers. Gonzalez has missed the entire year but is expected to be ready to get in a game or two before the end of the regular season. Obviously in his place Pierre Garcon has stepped up and become a focal point for Manning and the Colts. He’ll need to continue to show growth just in case Gonzalez doesn’t become starter dependable for the playoffs.

If Maurice Jones Drew has been a Colt killer the last three seasons Reggie Wayne has been a Jaguar assassin. Spanning back to the 2006 season and over seven games against the Jaguars, Wayne has averaged 118 yards receiving. An incredible mark for one of the elite receivers in the game. Whatever the Jaguars have worked on the last three and a half years hasn’t worked. Expect Wayne to be the big contributor from a fantasy standpoint, and Pierre Garcon to get in the mix with a big play or two.

With Manning leading the league in yardage at 300 a game it’s almost a given to expect a solid proportion of fantasy statistics from Wayne, Clark, and Garcon. A huge concern for fantasy owners has to be in the Colts backfield. Donald Brown missed several games with his knee injury and has already been ruled out for Thursday’s game. Joseph Addai has knee issues himself and might have a reduced role or more of a time share with former Michigan star back Mike Hart.

If Manning is able to pick apart the worse pass rushing defense in the league early it could be a big sleeper night for Mike Hart. Once a team sees their beat and seasons likely done as what would happen here, than the second half could lead to a lot of poor tackling and huge chunks of yards for Mike Hart. From a Jaguars fantasy perspective the only other relevant player to insert besides MJD is possibly Torry Holt. When healthy Mike Sims-Walker was posting solid numbers but over the last month he has been battling a nagging calf injury and has fell off big time.

David Garrard is a must stay away from quarterback especially since it is playoff time in your leagues. Garrard’s been way too erratic and has the worst touchdown per games played ratio of any quarterback in the league.

Decision Time

Tuesday, 15 December, 2009

by Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

If there was ever an inopportune time to self destruct it happened yesterday for the Arizona Cardinals. On the main stage of Monday Night Football the Cardinals failed in all phases that you could possibly fail in. It seemed as if their game plan was dodged from the get go. Fumbleitis on top of the offensive line woes and Kurt Warner’s inability to suddenly not feel pressure in the pocket. All in all they turned the ball over seven times. Afterwards head coach Whisenhunt basically said it wasn’t their day and they’re going to move forward.

Truly, a loss is a loss and for the most part teams are going to melt down at some point in a season and have to regroup. The Cardinals went through major issues last season as they had huge let down losses but due to the weakness of their division were not bothered by the pressure of any other teams. The same is pretty much the case this season. The Cardinals are not going to fade completely and lose out while the 49ers win out and take the division. That’s not realistic and will not happen.

Something about San Francisco has rose a plethora of constant issues for the Cardinals. That’ll be something they don’t have to worry about until their next matchup versus the 49ers in 2010. What they do have to worry about is the backfield woes they have had all season. Tim Hightower and rookie running back Beanie Wells have coughed up the football with regularity. Basically on a tough hard hit they’ve both been prone to the same fumbling issues. In yesterday’s game Whisenhunt was so frustrated with Tim Hightower that he benched him briefly in favor of third string running back LaRod-Stephens Howling.

These type of back and forth games should not happen this deep into the season. The problem with Arizona that they somehow were able to side step last year is they’ve never been able to run the football. Last year they pulled through in the playoffs because teams could not guard Larry Fitzgerald as he went onto to have a seasons worth of stats in his four playoff games. Who people forget about that did a decent job rushing the football in the playoffs last year was Edgerrin James. Once the Cardinals drafted Beanie Wells they decided to cut ties with the aging back and move forward.

All San Francisco did was get after Kurt Warner and they did that by sending only three or four defensive lineman. Some stunts were done by their linebackers but for the most part they were dropping into zone coverage because the Cardinals were afraid of fumbling the football again. It’s pretty bad when all three running backs fumble in the same game, as happened with the Cardinals. Heck, there are some running backs that go the entire season without fumbling the football.

If you’re Arizona you have to pick between Hightower and Beanie Wells as the main back and progress your team offensively for a playoff run. The team needs to know who they’re going to rely on as their feature back. Clearly when Wells has had the carries he has been a far more effective runner. It’s not his running skills that have the Cardinals hesitant in naming him as feature starter, it’s his pass protection. That’s the area that Hightower excels in and keeps himself on the field with. He does a great job picking up the right blocks and chipping to give Kurt Warner that extra time to get rid of the football.

By fumbling the football five times though as Hightower has, he is proving too be a bigger detriment than plus. Keep his carries limited and see if a coach can diagnose and help him extract his fumbling issues in the off-season. Wells fumbles are only one lower at four so far but he adds another dimension of explosiveness to this offense. Many question why the Cardinals did not go after a veteran back such as Deuce McAllister or Warrick Dunn to help these youngsters out. Now it’s too late and the Cardinals will have to rely on a backfield that’s fumbled the football ten times including Stephens-Howling.

Automatic/Don't Do It Week Ten

Tuesday, 17 November, 2009

By Ted Cahill

Raise your hand if you predicted the Bengals to be a Super Bowl contender this year.

Alright, besides Carson Palmer, I’m pretty sure no one is on record with anything close to that. But here we are, nine weeks into the season and Cincinnati is perched on top of the AFC North and is drawing Super Bowl predictions.

I can’t say I saw this coming, though I thought they would be a little more competitive than a year ago. I’m also unwilling to toss their name in the Super Bowl picture, but if Ocho Cinco wants to toss some money my way, I’m down.

None of these players paid me to put them in here, but the Chiefs should have. Where else are they going to find all this ink not written about Larry Johnson?

Start

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers vs. Cincinnati
Roethlisberger will likely take advantage of a porous Bengals’ pass defense. Cincinnati is allowing 242 passing yards per game, and remember they play the Browns to help that average out. Big Ben already has a 276 passing yard day that came with a running and throwing touchdown.

Matt Cassel, Chiefs at Oakland
No Larry Johnson, likely means more passing. For all of you that drafted Cassel expecting him to do something, this might be the week for you. The Raiders give up 212 passing yards per game and Cassel will likely pass that.

Anquan Boldin, Cardinals vs. Seattle
Boldin is typically a must-start, but he has been nursing an injury and did not play last week. Boldin wasn’t happy with that decision and will likely go this week. He can do work against Seahawks, given the turnaround of Kurt Warner.

Laurence Maroney, Patriots at Indianapolis
The Colts will probably try and take Tom Brady out of the equation as much as possible this week. That should mean open holes for Maroney to run through. Maroney has scored three touchdowns in his last three games and has averaged 83 yards.

Sit

Carson Palmer, Bengals at Pittsburgh
Palmer didn’t throw for 200 yards in week three when these two teams met in Cincinnati. I don’t expect him to have a big game at Pittsburgh, who picked off Kyle Orton three times on Monday night.

Kyle Orton, Broncos at Washington
The good news for Orton is the Redskins have only four interceptions this season. However, they allow only 160 passing yards per game and Denver doesn’t throw much on the road. I’d look to avoid him.
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Greg Jennings, Packers vs. Dallas
The Cowboys do a good job taking away deep threats with a combination of good cornerbacks and a great pass rush. They give up yards underneath, which is where Aaron Rodgers is likely to be looking this week. Jennings will likely not hit any home runs for you this week.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs at Oakland
Yes the Raiders allow a lot of rushing yards, just not to Charles. He’s coming into a bad situation and Oakland’s pass defense is even worse than their run defense

Week Nine Automatic/Don't Do It

Thursday, 5 November, 2009

By Ted Cahill

The World Series conclusion Wednesday was a bittersweet occurrence for me.

I was happy to see CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez win their first titles, but it means that baseball is gone for a few months. Football will attempt to fill its void, and probably do a poor job of it as usual.

College basketball and LeBron will help some, but I’ll still be waiting for the first time I get to see that green diamond again.

I’m sure that’s what Darren McFadden and Joe Thomas are thinking too.

But on to players that are actually fantasy relevant in Week Nine of the NFL season.

Start

Tim Hightower, Cardinals at Chicago
This isn’t the Bears’ defense of a few years ago. Instead its one that running backs can actually take advantage of. Hightower is getting the red zone touches instead of rookie Beanie Wells and taking advantage of them. That should continue this week.

Carson Palmer, Bengals vs. Baltimore
Coming off a bye, I expect the Bengals to be fully prepared for the Ravens. Palmer was hot headed into the week off and should be good to go again this week. In the team’s previous meeting this year, Palmer threw for 271 yards and a touchdown, a pretty good day.

Reggie Bush, Saints vs. Carolina
The Panthers have struggled to defend the run so far this year, while being stingy against the pass. That’s no problem for the Saints, who will rely heavily on Pierre Thomas. But Bush has scored in three straight games, and shouldn’t be counted out of this one either.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks vs. Lions
Houshmandzadeh has only caught eight passes for 58 yards in the past two games, as Nate Burleson has passed him in Matt Hasselbeck’s eyes. That shouldn’t be a problem this week against the anemic Lions.

Sit

Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. Washington
Atlanta is likely to ride Michael Turner to victory this week. This isn’t to say that Ryan won’t have an alright day, but this isn’t a week that the Falcons will need him to be great. I’m not really sold on this matchup either; the Redskins allow only 165 passing yards a game.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers at New York
Don’t fool yourself on this one. Yes, Tomlinson has been pretty good the past few weeks and the Giants aren’t very good against the run. However, Tomlinson has only 3.3 yards per carry in the last three weeks, including meetings with Kansas City and Oakland.

Alex Smith, 49ers vs. Tennessee
No. two in the “Don’t fool yourself” department. Smith has played adequately in the last two games. The matchup looks good, but the matchup looks good for Frank Gore too. The 49ers will probably look to Gore to carry them through the Titans.

Torry Holt, Jaguars vs. Kansas City
No. three “Don’t fool yourself.” Yes the Chiefs give up 252 passing yards per game. But not to the Jaguars. Maurice Jones-Drew will rack up the big yards this week and David Garrard will throw the ball, but not enough for Holt to be in your fantasy lineup.

Week Eight Automatic/Don't Do It

Friday, 30 October, 2009

by Ted Cahill

This must be second chance week.

Alex Smith and Vince Young are back in as starters of their original NFL team. Usually first-round busts have to switch teams if they want their second chance, but Smith and Young have skipped that step.

Now we’ll see if either learned anything from their time on the bench or if they’re just as scary as the first time around.

Start

Steven Jackson, Rams at Detroit
For all the Jackson owners that are wondering why they drafted him, this is your week. The Lions’ defense should be no problem, even for Jackson who has struggled this year.

David Garrard, Jaguars at Tennessee
The Titans give up 311 passing yards per game. Now I know they’re coming off a bye and Garrard hasn’t thrown a touchdown on the road this season. I don’t care; you can send him out and not worry.

Darren Sproles, Chargers vs. Oakland
With LaDainian Tomlinson continuing to regress, Sproles becomes increasingly important in the offense. The Raiders give up 4.6 yards per carry and Sproles has scored 11 touchdowns in his last seven games against the Black and Silver.

Roddy White, Falcons at New Orleans
Normally White wouldn’t be anywhere near this list, he’s too much of a must start. But I want to make sure everyone realizes playing the Saints doesn’t change that. Matt Ryan probably won’t throw for 300 yards like he did the last time in the Super Dome, but White is still his favorite target.

Sit

Michael Crabtree, 49ers at Indianapolis
Like many of you, I picked Crabtree up last week and stuck him on the bench. But this isn’t the week to bring out the shiny new toy. The Colts give up 180 yards through the air and with Smith back in at quarterback, the 49ers will continue to try and run the ball down their throats.

Mark Sanchez, Jets vs. Dolphins
Don’t be fooled by the Dolphins poor pass defense. Yes they give up 234 yards through the air, but I’d be surprised if Sanchez really got the license to throw this week. There will be plenty of running in this game by both teams.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers at Arizona
The Cardinals shut down the Giants strong rushing attack last week. The Bills did the same to the Panthers. Combine those facts and you get Stewart on the bench in the desert.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants at Philadelphia
If Bradshaw couldn’t do anything against Arizona, I don’t expect him to do anything in Philadelphia. The Eagles give up 3.6 yards per carry and will be stacking the box again this week.

Week Seven: Automatic/Don't Do It

Friday, 23 October, 2009

By Ted Cahill

I had hoped to provide some clarity on what’s happened with the Buffalo Bills this year, but my insider source came up with nothing this week.

Nothing, that is, except a declaration that the Sabers are “baller.”

That threw me for a loop, since I’m still trying to figure out when the NHL started its regular season.

But on with what I can help you with. Remember I’m not here to say start Tom Brady and sit Josh Johnson, you’re smarter than that.

Start

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers vs. Minnesota
The Vikings have already allowed two 300-yard passers this season, and Roethlisberger seems to be in line to become the third. Because, hey, if Joe Flacco can do it, Big Ben better be able to.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers at Kansas City
Tomlinson has proved that he’s still the feature back in San Diego. Sproles did nothing running the ball last week and failed in an especially crucial situation. This should be a big game for LT.

Panthers’ running backs vs. Buffalo
The Bills have allowed more than five yards per carry this season. With an already run heavy attack, feel free to start either DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart; or Mike Goodson for that matter.

Lance Moore, Saints at Miami
In case you missed it, New Orleans proved they were for real last week. The Dolphins’ defense is nothing compared to the Giants, who Moore had 78 yards and a touchdown against.

Sit

Sidney Rice, Vikings at Pittsburgh
The Steelers allow 201 passing yards per game, but this isn’t a great spot for Minnesota. Rice will likely draw a matchup with cornerback Ike Taylor, who has already shut down high-profile receivers this year. Rice is a hot pickup right now, but I wouldn’t put him in the starting lineup this week.

Donnie Avery, Rams vs. Indianapolis
Avery has two touchdowns in the past two weeks, but this is not his week. The Colts have allowed only two touchdown passes all year and opponents are averaging fewer than 200 yards per game through the air.

Donovan McNabb, Eagles at Washington
McNabb traditionally doesn’t do well against the Redskins, who have a tough pass defense this season. It’s hard to say that McNabb should be on the bench given Andy Reid’s propensity to throw the ball, but I’m thinking there are better quarterback options.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins vs. New Orleans
Once again, the Saints are for real. That includes shutting down Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs last week. Miami figures to be behind and trying to throw the ball, like every other team that’s played the Saints so far. Unless you think Brown gets plenty of pass attempts out of the Wildcat, stay away.