Automatic/Don’t Do It

Back To The Year of the Running Backs

Friday, 2 September, 2011

 

By Zack Cimini

 notjustagame23@gmail.com

As your numerous fantasy drafts of the summer come to a close, your probably strategizing even more for this last one. There hasn’t been too many affects injury wise, as in years past. There are some glaring holes at certain positions though, making it critical that you do not wait too long to draft a certain player.

One area that will have a down year comes at the quarterback position. The last few years owners may have become accustomed to the high yardage and multiple touchdown throws from a high amount of quarterbacks. You could plug in your second tier quarterbacks and get decent results. This year though should be different and shift back to years past.

There are too many quarterback changes around the league . Rookies in Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Second year starters in Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. Veterans that have struggled throughout their career but remain starters; Alex Smith, David Garrard, Tavaris Jackson, and Chad Henne. On top of those guys you have the erratic quarterbacks such as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, etc. that will drive fantasy owners crazy.

So unlike in prior years where we could and would wait to draft a quarterback late, this isn’t the year to do so. You do not want to have to rely on Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, or Jay Cutler as your starter. They’ve proven both sides of the spectrum from a fantasy standpoint. You have to secure yourself one of the top eight to ten quarterbacks, there are no buts about draft strategy to argue this.

Stock piling at running back like the glory days should be heightened. Coaches around the league are going to force feed the ball to their running backs. With decreased experience and snaps due to the lockout, quarterback play is going to be behind regardless of experience. Running the football is a skill that doesn’t require extensive snaps. It’s a skill you either have or you don’t.

Gems on the waiver wire at running back will surely be had. Do not be stuck in a situation where you are loaded at running back and have faulted at quarterback. You’re going to need those consistent points of a solid quarterback to get those decisive wins. It’ll be the difference in a couple of extra wins, or the lame excuse of if I started this player, I would have easily won.

Get on board the proper way. Analyze the market like stocks. It’s a bad year for quarterbacks, and they’re going to have plenty of growing pains. The tier of guys that could excel beyond expectations are young guys that we haven’t seen take that full next step. The Matt Staffords, Josh Freemans, and Sam Bradford. Some of you out there are going to risk it enough to have a jumbled mess at quarterback.

Don’t be like the Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, Bengals, Panthers, 49ers, and Redskins. In abysmal situations at quarterback and undecided with their situations.

Larry Johnson, ….Really?

Wednesday, 24 August, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Dolphins fans have been prepared for head scratching moves before. A spat between Bill Parcells and Jason Taylor, caused Taylor to float to a couple of teams before landing back to Miami. Ricky Williams hiatus was self caused but no one anticipated Miami welcoming him back with open arms. Whispers of Brett Favre heading to Miami, might not have been as shocking to hear that the Dolphins signed Larry Johnson Tuesday.

While the Dolphins front office is at it, why not call up Cecil Collins or Lawrence Phillips and see what they’re up to?

Shifting from Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to new feature backs was a much needed move. It’s just the mismanagement that raises questions. Reggie Bush has been a flash back since he entered the league. Now the Dolphins are going to heighten his carries and expect him to retain his slashing abilities out of the backfield. Pairing him with a strong halfback to try and have a fair distribution figured to happen without much thought.

Planning for Daniel Thomas to be the lone threat with Reggie Bush seems to be the thought process. Thomas was a beast and much of a one way offensive machine for Kansas State last year. Concerns over the way rookie backs have faired the last several years, likely caused the latest move in Johnson.

When has a back buried for over four years with absolutely no productivity, risen back noticeably? No that’s not a slam to Tiki Barber. Johnson has nothing left in the tank. Miami is giving him a shot when they could have had better luck signing an XFL player. The only thing the Dolphins could possibly be bringing Johnson in for is goal line packages and extreme short yardage situations.

Heck, even Daniel Thomas can keep the wildcat formation still alive for 2011. He ran enough direct snaps and misdirection plays at Kansas State. This signing is laughable and the two percent of faithful 05-07 Larry Johnson owners out there, we have one small message. Take a deep breath, and let those memories fade far away.

Who Will Free Up Fitz?

Tuesday, 23 August, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

For once the Cardinals front office did something they tend to never do. Sign a marquee player that was an original draftee. Time and time again the Cardinals would let a player walk instead of electing to fork up the millions. There were likely other variables to the Cardinals not resigning anyone. Including the top fact that they were a bottom cellar team for years that players wanted to bolt from.

There were only a handful of players that could be linked back to the Cardinals from the 1990’s. David Boston because of a steroid scandal and monstrous statistical year. Jake Plummer because he actually led the Cardinals to a playoff victory, but was a roller coaster pocket passer. Aeneas Williams and Larry Centers are two guys that actually stayed with the team for quite some time and had individual success. Pat Tillman goes without any elaboration.

This team has seen its ups and downs. When the team ultimately decided not to renew Anquan Boldin, many fans figured this was the same old Cardinals front office. In this short off-season, they also let Steve Breaston walk from his expired rookie contract. So now two of the three Cardinals receivers that Kurt Warner counted on were gone.

In comes new quarterback Kevin Kolb who luckily had been training most of the summer with Larry Fitzgerald. Something finally clicked in the Cardinals front office when they leashed out millions on Kolb. He is a young quarterback with many years in front of him. Why not give him a premier receiver to throw to for an x amount of years. Eight years, and $120 million later the Cardinals took care of business before it got ugly.

Fitzgerald had the right to walk without being labeled with the franchise tag. A poor sixteen games with a new quarterback, and maybe Fitzgerald’s mind wanes and looks elsewhere. Now if that happens, the hard worker in Fitzgerald will have Kolb on speed dial to get things better in the off-season. Scenarios that probably won’t be as drastic as mentioned, but if you’re a GM those are things you need to think about.

Two pieces are put together, and they are two very big ones. Behind Fitz though there will be some no name young athletes. Which ones will step up and be relied upon for fantasy football teams?

Looking at the Cardinals roster, you can see where the shift of salary at wide receiver lies. Right at the top. Not much is coming out of the wallets of the Bidwells behind Fitzgerald. Factor in Todd Heap as a significant upgrade at tight end to what fans have been accustomed to the last fifteen years.

Chansi Stuckey has been written off and right now is drifting from team to team as a special teams player. Spread formations will likely be ran by the Cardinals, and the two that will be in should be Early Doucet and Andre Roberts. Doucet is the more experience and has been working behind Fitz and Boldin for years. He has the frame of Boldin, but has been too inconsistent.

If he drops the ball, look for Andre Roberts to slip past Doucet. Roberts had a decent rookie season, and has electrifying speed. For the quarterbacks Roberts had last year, you could say he had an above expectations type of year. Unless you’re in deep leagues, both Roberts and Doucet could end up undrafted. We like Roberts as a better option as the season extends, and for a bigger fantasy impact.

No Changes for Giants Backfield

Friday, 5 August, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Little noise has been created for the other New York team. The New York Giants swayed from resigning Plaxico Burress, and stuck to their core structure as a team overall. Tom Coughlin’s always been an in-house kind of guy. Teaching and training through his proper system and instilling his overall team concept. It’s worked in the past for Jacksonville’s success, and obviously in New York where they have won a Super Bowl.

No big signings have come from the New York Giants. Just a solid draft and retaining some key free agents. Their bright nucleus of wide receivers remain intact, and will likely blossom even further this season. The area in which many are surprised a move wasn’t made would have to be at running back.

Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have had their fair share of ups and downs as Giants. Jacobs went from a breakout back to bust in a quick time span. Last year though, with the Giants relegating his carries he showed proper production as the second option back. Bursting through tacklers late in games and tacking on touchdowns gave Jacobs fantasy value once again. We all knew Jacobs would be back in 2011, it was who he would be paired with that was the question.

Ahmad Bradshaw had an out the gate type of 2010 season. Starting off so well that he supplanted Jacobs as feature back with ease. The grind of carries can typically catch up to a back in the latter parts of the year. For Bradshaw he hit a wall basically at the midpoint of the year. His value and stock dropped dramatically as he only produced one game over a hundred yards. What made matters worse was the fact that he fumbled the ball at a high rate.

As Bradshaw became less dependable that was when Brandon Jacobs seemed to resurrect. He had a three game tear weeks twelve through fourteen in which he averaged nearly one hundred yards a game. Even when he wasn’t having monster games from a yardage standpoint, he was the second half factor back for the Giants. Garnering the key carries, mostly because Tom Coughlin was likely afraid of Bradshaw coughing up the football.

So with this duo back together in 2011, fantasy owners have to be juggling to decide who will do what. One thing that can’t be taken away from either is they will produce touchdowns. The Giants run the football with the best of any NFL team. Another great plus is how the Giants spread the football around through the air. With all of their great targets it opens up the running lanes and keeps defenses on their heels. While Jacobs will burst through tacklers, Bradshaw has the long gainer ability that he is well known for.

We are worried that Ahmad Bradshaw may have had an above average season last year. He just didn’t have the feature back skills of a top tier back the second half of last season. He’ll likely slip in drafts a tad, but is a viable bottom tier number two fantasy starter, and great third option. Jacobs on the other hand will offset his five to seven points average of rushing yards, with a solid scatter of single or two touchdown games. His a quiet fantasy force that will give you close to ten points a game.

Jacobs isn’t a back that you would want to count on, but he’ll end up being one of those backs you drafted late that sneaks up your roster depth chart as a starter.

Dynasty League: Trade Bait

Tuesday, 17 May, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The lockout doesn’t halt leagues that are continuous, as is the case with dynasty leagues. Owners get to nag each other for an entire year. There is literally no off season. After the NFL Draft, that’s when things become even more interesting. Owners sense who they want with their projected rookie draft picks, and are willing to give up certain players. It’s all projection based, where the hit/miss can fall back hard just like an NFL teams busted pick.

Numerous trade offers are likely filling your inbox. As tempting as they may be, draft picks, multiple player deals, etc. Do not get too entangled that you get Atlanta Falcon’d. Remember you’ve built your team up over several years. The factor waiver wire athletes still pop up each year out of no where. Your key areas that you need help in, aren’t going to fall in place with one trade. Positioning yourself over a two to three year period like a true general manager does, can be the better route. Unless you absolutely outsmart an opposing owner, do not get to over zealous in making a move.

Here are some players that you can leverage well to boost your team, whether with draft picks or necessary depth.

Quarterbacks

Josh Freeman- Freeman is the new big deal. He had a breakout year and seems undaunted as an every week NFL starting quarterback. He developed last year with rookie wide receivers, and a running game that didn’t come on until undrafted rookie, LeGarrette Blount took the job. The Tampa Bay organization believes in him, and he has been a catalyst in many fourth quarter come backs.

Mark Sanchez- As the season progressed, the heat on Sanchez started to wane. Reason being, he was starting to look like a legitimate starting quarterback. He was making proper adjustments under pressure and reading defenses quicker than he had been. Was he just in a stretch of games that he was playing well, or has he transformed to the next step?

Kyle Orton- Rumors are surrounding that Orton could be dealt. to possibly the Arizona Cardinals. A scenario like that could make Orton a top seven to ten fantasy quarterback. What he did as a Bronco just last year, makes him a steady quarterback that a dynasty league owner could be looking for.

Running Backs

James Starks- With Starks you have a few positives that you can entice owners into falling for. He is on a Super Bowl winning team with the best quarterback in football. Towards the end of last season he became the dependable factor back. Even if Ryan Grant returns, he’ll likely be relegated in carries and for measures to protect his health.

Ahmad Bradshaw- The Giants had something clicking when Jacobs lost his full time carries, and Bradshaw took on the bulk. The only problem with Bradshaw is that his fumbles picked up past the midway point of the year. Still, the Giants did nothing in the draft to make you think that Bradshaw’s job will be threatened. Teams in dire need of a second running back on their team, would and will settle for Bradshaw.

Matt Forte- As a dynasty league owner hopefully you stuck it out with Forte, and didn’t trade him for nothing last off-season. Now Forte is back near the top in terms of his involvement with the Bears offense. Not many running backs will get the carries and receptions as Forte does. Will he be worn down or can Mike Martz utilize him even more?

Wide Receivers

Anquan Boldin- Boldin is a veteran but he will be entering just his second season as a Raven. Any time an athlete of Boldin’s caliber makes a switch of teams, it’s going to take time to readjust. Flacco and Boldin seemed to be hit/miss all season last year. If they were on, Boldin had a field day. If not, Boldin went MIA in the fantasy point total column. This year should be different, as Flacco should be much more consistent.

Marques Colston- Colston is a notch below where you would want him to be. Owners know he can be a strong force, but the numbers do not lie. The last three years he has been a number three fantasy receiver on most squads. Drew Brees is spreading the ball around much more, and it has hurt Colston. That, and the fact that Colston has battled through injuries and slowed down a tad. Extended rest through the lockout could boost a player like Colston. Proper rest, and reloading in the Saints offense, could produce Colston’s strongest numbers since 2007.

NFL: Automatic/Don’t Do It Week 16

Thursday, 23 December, 2010

By Vidur Malik

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco – Flacco has been playing solid lately. He hasn’t put up huge numbers, but he also hasn’t thrown an interception since week 12. He threw two touchdown passes in the Baltimore Ravens’ 30-24 win over the New Orleans Saints in week 15, and he should have similar success against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

Sam Bradford – Bradford is going through a slump in which he’s thrown zero touchdowns and five interceptions in the last three games, but with the exception of a week 13 game against the Arizona Cardinals, those games have been against quality opponents in the New Orleans Saints and the Kansas City Chiefs. On Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers, Bradford should turn it around. The 49ers rank 25th in pass defense, and Bradford has shown that he has the talent to be a great quarterback, so consider starting him on Sunday.

Don’t Do It: Eli Manning – After last weeks’ devastating loss, it might not be smart to play Manning. Also, he’s playing the Green Bay Packers’ defense, which ranks third in pass defense and first in points given up.

Running backs

Fred Jackson –Jackson only had 36 yards on 15 carries in a win against the Miami Dolphins last week, but he should have a big game against the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Patriots gave up 99 yards to Green Bay Packers’ running back Brandon Jackson last week. The Packers’ Jackson only averages 3.9 yards per carry this year, but had 4.5 yards per carry against the Patriots, so Fred could have opportunities for long runs.

Rashard Mendenhall – After rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown against the New York Jets in week 15, Mendenhall will probably do even better against the Carolina Panthers tonight. The Panthers are 23rd in rushing defense and should give up plenty of big plays to Mendenhall.

Don’t Do It: Cedric Benson – Even though Benson is coming off of his best game of the year, a 150-yard, one-touchdown performance in a win against the Cleveland Browns, he should struggle on Sunday against the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers’ run defense is second in the league and hasn’t given up more than 40 rushing yards to an opposing running back since week 13, so you should bench Benson this week.

Receivers

Brandon Marshall – After struggling for several weeks, Marshall had 106 yards and a touchdown in a week 15 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Miami Dolphins play the Detroit Lions on Sunday, who have an average pass defense which ranks 13th in the league, but are 21st in yards given up. Look for Marshall to make some big plays on Sunday.

Dwayne Bowe – Bowe and the Kansas City Chiefs play the Tennessee Titans, who rank 26th in pass defense. Bowe has 941 receiving yards, and should go over 1,000 Sunday against the Titans. He leads the league in receiving touchdowns with 14, and should add to that total as well.

Don’t Do It: Percy Harvin – The Minnesota Vikings’ play-making receiver caught the team’s only touchdown pass in a 40-14 loss to the Chicago Bears in week 15, but that pass was thrown by Brett Favre, who later suffered a concussion in the game. Harvin probably won’t get many looks on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles. If rookie Joe Webb starts at quarterback for the Vikings on Sunday, his lack of experience should cause him to have a tough day, which will make it difficult for Harvin to get you fantasy points.

Source for statistics: nfl.com