Fantasy Football: Five Players to Upgrade and Downgrade

Follow@cimini

Upgrades

Russ Wilson
Wilson was impressive in orchestrating a rout against the Green Bay Packers Thursday. He seems to be ready to elevate his game to another level that should be fantasy friendly. He has always talked the talk with proper interviews and now it’s translating onto the field.

Andy Dalton
The Bengals could have folded as a team offensively with the way the game tracked. In fact most of the time when you see teams give away a lead they fold with under six minutes to go. After five first half field goals and a missed sixth attempt, the Bengals found themselves down 16-15 with under six minutes. Dalton stayed poised and delivered a game winning touchdown bomb to AJ Green. He may not be a post season quarterback just yet, but he has shown through the years to be a steady fantasy quarterback in the regular season.

Codarrelle Patterson
Maybe the Vikings have something going that the rest of the league will follow suit with. They originally drafted Percy Harvin for his speed and shiftiness in the open field. It worked for a few seasons out of the backfield and at wide receiver before he ended up in Seattle. It looks like the Vikings had another route in mind when they landed Patterson. His speed and open field ability is on another level. Fantasy owners that got him as a relative mid round pick are grinning from ear to ear.

Markus Wheaton
It wasn’t the offense of the Steelers that impressed me, it was the defense. From a fantasy football players perspective you have to love the fact that the Steelers defense is still in shambles. They nearly allowed the Browns to come all the way back and win the game. But knowing that the defense is still a work in progress means that the Steelers will continue to throw a lot offensively. That boosts Wheaton who had nearly 100 yards receiving on six catches Sunday.

Pierre Thomas
Most draftees of Thomas were able to land him as their fourth running back and best flex option. The Saints have shown that they don’t mind feeding the ball to Thomas out of the backfield, as he was great in this area last season. When they decided to bring him back many people were not sure if it would be in the same capacity. After seven carries for 30 yards and seven catches for nearly 60 yards, those questions have been answered.

Downgrades

Ben Tate
Tate owners are extremely displeased with his early season injury against the Steelers. Though he will likely return soon he already has the injury bug tabbed on him from his Houston days. Owners better find a way to trade for Terrance West if you do not have him already. West came in and showcased that he can handle the load with sixteen carries for 100 yards against the Steelers.

Vincent Jackson
The problems with Tampa Bay’s week one performance are not going to resolve themselves in one or two games. Josh McCown had a couple of awful interceptions and really never got back into gear after the first turnover. Obviously if McCown continues to struggle it’s going to have a downgraded effect to Jackson. You have to move him down until the team shows better promise. Right now the offense would rank dead last from what I saw this week.

Doug Martin
Doug Martin seems to be heading down Steve Slaton territory. He came out of nowhere to have one stellar season. Owners drafted him high last year with injuries ending that season. Promise for a comeback based on his season two years ago looks far fetched after week one. He ran the ball nine times for just nine yards. A bad game against the Panthers isn’t something to overreact about, but Martin has a steep hill to climb to get anywhere near the value he was drafted for.

Trent Richardson
Richardson seems to be attacking aggressively but just doesn’t have the gear to get out of the hole. It’s hard to tell if Richardson can get in gear if Indianapolis always digs themselves a hole. But his downward progression has been going on for over a year now. Sooner or later the Colts are going to run out of patience as fantasy owners are.

Jamaal Charles
Last month I profiled how backs falter under Andy Reid. It’s been a problem for over ten years. Kansas City’s offense was the second worst in week one behind the Buccaneers. Charles is the type of back though that can have five or six great games to offset this type of performance. His low carries though from week one have to be alarming.

Follow@cimini

By the end of week two I will do a fantasy football video show before the games start. But for now I’ll go ahead and take care of fantasy football news and notes regarding injuries before you set that final fantasy football lineup at 12:59PMEST/9:59PST.

Andre Ellington
I tabbed Ellington in the offseason and preseason as a guy to downgrade. I wasn’t expecting an injury this early but his foot injury leaves him as a no-go for this week. There is no reason to await head coach Bruce Arians decision to play Ellington. Utilize the rest of your depth and bypass Ellington completely. It was first reported that Ellington would miss four to six weeks.

Sammy Watkins
I’m not as down on Watkins for his status week one against the Bears. He was good to go in practice and although getting hit in the rib area is never great, teams now have the gear to protect that area. We’ve seen quarterbacks play with rib injuries and still get hit hard in that area. Watkins isn’t going to catch the ball more than five or six times. He’ll protect his body and be fine against Chicago. If you’re light at the receiver position go ahead and insert him.

Kenny Stills
This injury to Stills regarding his quad will keep him out this week against Atlanta. Stills is still just a bench reserve until we see more consistency out of him. Last year he broke out in a string of games but that was it. Those thinking to start Brandin Cooks are probably getting giddy just a tad bit early. His role will be just like Stills a year ago. A speed decoy for Brees to find deep occasionally. Unless that home run ball hits your going to be stuck with a low amount of points from Stills.

Terrance Williams
Williams back injury should not keep him out against the 49ers. You never know how a back will respond until action takes place. It’s something Williams owners will have to watch week to week. But after time off Williams is young enough that his back should hold up. The question will be if he can for the entire season.

Cam Newton
Who knows what Ron Rivera and Cam Newton are discussing hours before kickoff. The point spread has not moved and is still stuck at 2.5. If Vegas isn’t reacting than why is the fantasy football world getting caught up in a stir. This is a rib injury that quarterbacks have played through countless times. I believe Newton will go and it’ll be up to the Panthers offensive line to dictate how long he stays in. If Tampa Bay is able to hit Newton early than we may see Derek Anderson. Either way Newton has always been a matchup starter. This week with his health a major question you have to sit him. Carolina will likely relegate his main asset of rushing the football to avoid his big frame being subjected to hits.

Rob Gronkowski
Is he ready for a full season in a Patriots uniform? We haven’t seen Gronkowski achieve that since that days of being paired up with Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez was one of the reasons why Gronkowski flourished the way he did, as he was a nightmare to cover himself. Now we have to see how fresh Gronkowski is after several injuries. It should be expected for Gronkowski to hold little value this week unless he gets into the end zone. But with Gronkowski expected to play 30-50% of snaps that will draw Miami’s attention. Sit Gronkowski this week.

Cecil Shorts
Jacksonville will rely on their young rookie receivers with Shorts out. Jacksonville has surprised before with emerging receivers but there is no reason to jump on the “could be” band wagon in week one for fantasy football. There aren’t enough injuries around the league to do so. No one should own any Jaguar currently beneath Shorts in fantasy leagues.

Follow@cimini

Let the bragging begin. If it wasn’t bad enough ten years ago, ego-boosting fantasy football fanatics can come back out starting tomorrow. Live scoring means that a touchdown and great start by a player means an instant “send” text to the league opponent.

Don’t let that 1-0 start by your buddy come against you. Get out the gate appropriately. I have a few under the radar fantasy starters to insert this week.

EJ Manuel
As low as I am on the Bills and Manuel this season I’m going to give the nod for Manuel this week. Chicago is an up tempo offense. With that style it leaves the all too familiar errors by Jay Cutler. Short fields should allow Manuel to have a couple of extra plus territory opportunities than normal. Chicago’s defense is nothing to write home about either.

Ryan Tannehill
If Miami’s offense truly is better than a year ago, than Tannehill should shine in game one against the Patriots. Though they did win in one of the games last year against the Patriots, they also lost a game that Tannehill was at fault for. After holding a 17-3 lead in the first game, Miami squandered the lead and lost thanks to costly errors by Tannehill. Later on in the season Tannehill redeemed himself a bit with a 300 yard game against the Patriots. The addition of Revis will score people away from Miami offensive payers but look for Tannehill to shock.

Mark Ingram
Oddly enough more people are higher on Trent Richardson from Alabama rather than Ingram. Ingram’s role still remains undefined but he should see an increase this season. Pierre Thomas has aged and will fill in as the Saints third down back to replace Sproles. If you’re looking for a flex option or surprise starter look Ingram’s way. We all have no clue if Drew Brees is truly 100 percent. The Saints play calling could scale back from Brees’s normal high attempts to keep him from straining his body.

Eric Decker
One guy that should have been a buy low athlete in your league is Eric Decker. Decker caught a bad rap as the guy that flourished only because of Peyton Manning. While his stats did likely skew a tad there is no reason to think Decker isn’t an upgrade to the past Jets receivers. Remember in college, Smith had receivers such as Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. With talent on the outside he can get the ball to his receivers. A matchup against the Raiders aged and banged up secondary is not a bad spot to start Decker.

Washington’s Defense
Lets not kid ourselves. A quarterback starting for his fifth team is a problem. Houston bridged their gap of signing or drafting a quarterback by bringing in Ryan Fitzpatrick for a season. It could get ugly real quick, and week one likely will be the beginning of a long season for Houston Texans fans.

Others: Derek Carr, Julius Thomas, Terrance Williams, Vincent Jackson, and Kenny Britt

Follow@cimini

Who to start and who to sit? The infamous weekly debate to be had in every worthy fantasy football league throughout the country. Part of the problem early on in the season is trusting your team as a whole. Do you lack confidence in a certain position or an unreliable likely starter? Probably. We all have holes in are teams, but their is a skill in diagnosing that and getting the most out of your team.

It starts with knowing who to sit rather than start. If you can diagnose to sit three to four names on your team, it leaves the rest of your roster breakdown manageable.

Lets take a look at week one and some names that I would sit.

Cam Newton
Newton is one of those quarterbacks that drives fantasy owners nuts early on in the season. But somehow he ends up being a staple towards the midpoint and end of season. Carolina just doesn’t have enough assets at receiver to deploy Newton as a starter week one. He has been slipping in fantasy drafts because of this. We also need to see how healthy Newton is out of the gate. I expect him to still be a top five quarterback by seasons end, but he has to be downgraded week one.

Tom Brady
If there’s one team in the division that Brady has struggled against it has been Miami. Both games last season could have easily been won by the Dolphins, as they teams split. With Rob Gronkowski on the field how will their chemistry be? It’s not easy to hit that on switch with limited on field experience in two seasons.

Marques Colston
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the youth develop quickly at wide receiver for the Saints, with Stills and rookie Brandin Cooks. Colston is still being picked as if he is Brees’s top weapon at wide receiver. Injuries and the dominance of Jimmy Graham have sort of balanced out Colston’s fading value. On one hand he has stayed in the limelight because of the attention Graham gets. On the other he should have been a much higher recipient if you actually break it down further. He hasn’t been and that’s why the Saints have spent picks trying to upgrade the position.

Jeremy Maclin
Eyes have lit up on buyers of Eagles players in fantasy drafts just because of the brand of football Chip Kelly plays. Lets tone that down a bit with Jeremy Maclin. He has been injury prone and has yet to establish himself in Kelly’s new offense or with starter Nick Foles. Over time he may be a solid wide receiver three starter, but until then Riley Cooper holds higher value for Philadelphia.

Others: CJ Spiller, Le’Veon Bell, Tony Romo, Michael Floyd, and Joe Flacco

Follow@cimini

Key fantasy football drafts have been going on over the last week or two. They’ll continue for the next week. Many of you probably did invite leagues just for fun in mid June to late July, but now will start to get into your true fantasy groove. Your cap is on and your ready for the NFL season.

Before you head to your war rooms to draft with your buddies and colleagues here are a few fantasy football notes to think about.

Be leery of Jamaal Charles

I profiled Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles as a draft pick to be worried about this season. He has as high a stock as any fantasy football back, but there is a track record with Andy Reid to be leery of. Track the article from a week ago to read further.

Don’t Overreact to Preseason Play
A lot of people overreact to media drawn out stories or minimal statistics. Think about it this way. The action these athletes receive in preseason is so minuscule to what they receive in the regular season. Quarterbacks thus far in three combined preseason games may have totaled three to four quarters of actual action. Two of those quarters were warm up basic vanilla plays. The other few series maybe they did show rust. Think back to your athletic achievements even if they were back in peewee days. How’d you do the first week of practice or first games? Exactly. Let the pros be pros and expect their play to spike back to normal come Sundays.

Act Like You’ve Been There
In your drafts you should be prepared 100 percent. Don’t let an owner before you spoil your pick. If he picks someone you had in mind, move on with your backup plan. Some owners get so distraught that their pick was taken that they lose sight of their draft plans. The same can be said for auction leagues as well. You have a budget and have to abide to that. Obviously your going to have to protect your wallet on certain guys.

Sleepers Are Bait in Drafts
The term fantasy football sleeper started off well back in the mid to late 90’s. Gradually it has bogged down like a ten year television sitcom. It’s redundancy has plagued fantasy owners minds for their drafts. Too many people fill their rosters with potential hype and devalue the strength of their rosters. It’s safe to target a maximum of two possible sleepers. Use the rest of your bench depth on veterans and worthy tier three players. More than likely your sleeper pick ends up as your first or second waiver wire drop.

Follow@cimini

Yesterday was nearly all chalk for Friday’s preseason games on the larger spreads. Seattle annihilated the Bears while the Packers and Patriots cruised as well. Packers bettors had a bit of a scare as the Raiders made things interesting late, but it wasn’t enough to knock off the largely backed Packers.

Saturday features a gamut of preseason football action. Eight games are featured with closer point spreads than Friday’s minimal board. All are between 2.5 and 3.5 point spreads besides for the Denver Broncos at 7 points.

I have a couple of premium plays of the eight games on the board today, but lets take a look at the Redskins vs Ravens as a free play

Lets focus on Washington vs Baltimore. These two teams are close in proximity in the Maryland area. Fan bases are extreme on both sides, so this will be played as one of Saturday’s more prominent games.

With the way Baltimore’s 2nd and 3rd string finished out their game last week, you’d expect a much stronger start today. They held a 34-10 lead against Dallas in the third quarter only to let Dallas score three straight touchdowns and cut the lead to 34-30. They held onto win but you can believe the Ravens staff wasn’t thrilled with the lack of effort in protecting the lead.

Washington on the other hand is 2-0 and had strong efforts from their defense. Similar to the Ravens second and third string defenses, they also had a pour effort against the Browns in the fourth period. They gave up three touchdowns and gave up a hail mary that would of sent the game into overtime in the regular season.

Some may want to play the under in this game because of the way the defenses played last week. I’ll stay away from that angle. Washington played a dreadful offense with the Browns inexperience of Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer struggling. In week one they faced a Patriots team that struggled with Ryan Mallet under center.

Baltimore’s first two weeks were awfully similar to the Redskins experience. They throttled the 49ers in week one with Blaine Gabbert and Josh Johnson getting the majority of snaps.

I’d look for the Redskins to have the advantage here as 2.5 point underdogs. The combination of RG3 and Kirk Cousins is a much higher upgrade than the Cowboys and 49ers. The same can be said for the defensive effort the Redskins will get from their first unit for a half or three quarters over a few series from the 49ers and a half from the Cowboys.

Enjoy today’s free play and look under today’s picks for the rest of today’s premium plays.