Automatic/Don’t Do It

Week Two: Sit Em’

Thursday, 13 September, 2012

Twitter Questions @cimini

Get use to the early line ups for Thursday Night Football. Before you hit that update to your fantasy starting roster make sure to pay attention to this weeks sit em’ players. Don’t get caught glancing at your stat tracker and doing a double take. Yes it’s the fourth quarter and it’s not a system glitch that you are starting at five points from your starting wide receiver. Follow recommendations and sit the following players for week two.

Quarterbacks

Jay Cutler
Cutler is one of those home run or out quarterbacks in the NFL. He has to have things rolling in his favor to have momentum and sustain it for an entire game. Last week he was able to shake off an early pick six and have a stellar game. That is very unusual for Cutler. Maybe this is a breakout career year for Cutler now that he has proper talent surrounding him. I’m not buying it yet. He has been in the NFL too long and become predictable with his play. A quick turn around against a hungry division rival spells turnover trouble for Cutler.

Matt Schaub
The Houston Texans are one of the teams that are going to consistently run over passing the football. Certain teams may bounce around on a week to week basis with their game plan, Houston won’t. Schaub may have been rated a bit high this year for a fantasy quarterback. He is a suitable backup but numbers you would of expected a few years ago are not going to reappear. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are going to keep getting forced fed the football, and take away plenty of opportunities for Schaub touchdown passes. This week against Jacksonville figures to be a game where both teams establish the run for four full quarters. Possessions will be minimized and chances for a breakout game for Schaub is below thirty percent.

Russell Wilson
Chances that anyone flipped their DirecTV package to catch any of the Cardinals vs. Seahawks is like having a double sided coin. The tease was there but it the remote control only kept flipping to the 49ers vs. Green Bay and Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay. Wilson looked caught in the spotlight and struggled mightily against pressure. Bob Ryan is sure to add several blitzes to get the unprepared Wilson caught off guard for the second consecutive week.

Carson Palmer
What in the world happened to Palmer’s arm? He threw more Chad Pennington/Matt Leinart check down throws to Darren McFadden than anyone could of imagined. The offensive game plan vs. the San Diego Chargers seemed non existent. Maybe the offense turned to simplistic throws to cut down on Palmer’s erratic interceptions. Whatever the case, Palmer is on near waiver wire drop consideration with another poor week.

Running Backs

Michael Turner
Big power backs longevity just keeps dwindling. Turner was hardly used as a San Diego Charger, but those days were paired with Ladanian Tomlinson. Tomlinson may have just retired but those years paired together seem like ages ago. With Atlanta’s talented receiving depth and Matt Ryan ready to step up, the Falcons are going to shift to a new identity. One that turns Michael Turner into a lower tier fantasy running back second starter.

Stevan Ridley
Ridley had quite a week one to make the owners that drafted him give the early “I told you so”. Hold the gun on that call. Ridley may have his impressive weeks ahead of him, but a Patriots running back is far from being a sure thing. Arizona has a solid defense that will be up for the test on limiting Ridley from a follow up performance.

Kevin Smith
San Francisco’s defense is going to be one of those defenses that it’s going to take an impressive effort to get over 100 yards on them. It’ll be even harder than last year. Smith keeps reappearing as the lead back in Detroit by default. By midseason he likely will not even be the feature back. Last week Smith gave fantasy owners decent tricky points for those that risked starting him. This is the week where you can boot yourself in the back for drafting poorly at the running back position. If you’re stuck starting Smith, you better hope the Lions find there way down to the one yard line. Even than it may be just a tease. A fourth and goal plunge that falls short.

Maurice Jones Drew
This is the week where the true football shape of Jones Drew will be tested. He came into the fold right before week one, and was used more than expected vs. the Vikings. Overall his week one performance had to be evaluated as an exceeds. Expect a fallback this week though. Jones Drew isn’t a young back and his body was pushed physically against the Vikings. A layoff is a layoff no matter what profession. You can’t get back into the field and have an immediate consistent high impact.

Wide Receivers

Wes Welker
I probably rated Wes Welker lower than anyone had him listed overall at wide receiver. The Patriots went from having Welker and nobody around him to now two premier tight ends and Brandon Lloyd. A decline was inevitable. The stalemate of contract talks between the organization and Welker were valid. Teams would rather have the tight end beat them than chunks of yards over and over again by Welker. The Patriots will run the football more this year because of their short route passing game being taken away a tad. Welker is still a valuable receiver but not as high as people anticipated.

Marcus Colston
This may be the year Brees stats decline and it will not be because of his passing skills. His receivers were boosted over the years because of Brees himself. Colston has shined as a 7th round pick over the years, but was a questionable number one receiver even at his prime. Injuries have began to hinder his performance, and on most teams he would not be a number one receiver right now. Brees frustration will begin to show, as his group of receivers is not the quality you’d expect. Sit Colston this week.

Stephen Hill
What Pittsburgh does frequently to teams better than most is take away a favorable option. Hill was that week one. It was his first game as an NFL player and he caught the Bills off guard. You can believe the Steelers will not allow Hill to be the main threat in the Jets passing attack. Hill is to unpolished of a receiver to excel consistently as a rookie.

Stevie Johnson
This may be a shocker to some, as the Bills do not have many options to throw to besides Johnson. There are just times when a quarterback gets shaken so much, that even facing a defense that will give up yards does not matter. Ryan Fitzpatrick heard all summer that he needs to protect the football better. Week one he had a horrible performance in which he lost David Nelson and Fred Jackson. Two guys he counted on tremendously last year along with Johnson. Now Fitzpatrick has to make NFL throws to unknown receivers and Johnson who will definitely be blanketed all day.

Thursday Matchup: Chicago vs. Green Bay

Wednesday, 12 September, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Thursday games in the NFL and a college game on ESPN every week is going to make for an inspiring part of the week for those trying to make it to the weekend. These prime matchups in the NFL are just as important to any fantasy roster as the games are on Sunday and Monday.

Taking your time to project your fantasy starters and best options for points needs to start sooner now. The temporary end of the season weeks where most of the Thursday games on were filled with poor teams and non fantasy impact players is gone. Just how you can be beat at the tail end of the week with Monday Night Football’s matchup, the same results can happen on Thursdays.

Tony Romo, Kevin Ogletree, and DeMarco Murray showcased that just a week ago. The matchup with the Bears and Packers should offer more of the same.

For a Packers team that has been known as a lethal offensive machine over the last four years, Chicago has been one of the few teams to consistently give Rodgers fits. Last year the Bears were owned in both games, but in years 2009 and 2010 the defense held their own against the high powered Packers offense. In 2010, offensive scoring by the Packers in the regular season was a game with 17 points and another with ten. When meeting again in the NFC Championship, the Packers scored 21 and ended up winning the Super Bowl.

With a shortened week and the way both teams played week one, you’d have to expect the defenses to suffer more than the offenses. Chicago’s Brian Urlacher is gutting it out to play and likely will. The sore spot in the Bears defense remains in the secondary. Andrew Luck made some mistakes week one but he flung the football around nicely. Rodgers will have no problem finding his receivers and moving the football up and down the field on the Bears.

Greg Jennings is looking like a game time decision with a groin injury. Chances are he will likely sit, and the team will give him basically a bye weeks length to heal. The Packers are loaded and deep at receiver so that’s the best thing for them to do. For Jennings owners it’s not worth the risk inserting him in the lineup.

That boosts up players such as James Jones and Randall Cobb. With the Packers rushing woes likely not to improve overnight, it’s going to be a big day for the passing game. I do expect Cedric Benson to get more than nine carries, and likely closer to twenty as the Packers want to try to mix it up better and wear down the Bears defense. With Rodgers scrambling ability, don’t be surprised to see a patented bootleg bomb to Jordey Nelson or James Jones.

If you are a Cedric Benson owner and want the comfort ability of getting a range of ten to fourteen fantasy points he is worth the start. He has always been a hard runner and will get the opportunities to make up for his lackluster week one against a stifling 49ers defense. Remember Benson was an ex-Bear. He has only faced off against his former team once. In that performance he ran for a career high 189 yards in 2009. Motivation is always there for a player going against recognizable ex teammates and organization that parted ways with him.

Start all the key Packers even Benson, and emerging specialist Randall Cobb.

With the Chicago Bears an offensive outpour looked great week one. Jay Cutler has more comfort ability than any quarterback in the NFL. Brandon Marshall was his top wide out with Denver, and he still has Earl Bennett on key downs that he hits over and over again. Will this be a mirage? Cutler has had many a performances where he shines and then follows them up with head scratchers.

Prime time games have been his nemesis, and this has repeat Cutler written all over it. A week of shining through the air should not be a recipe weekly for the Bears. They have the running backs to beat teams up through the ground every week. Teams can lose their identity after a game like the Bears just had. In a young season I expect that to happen vs. the Packers. Especially with the Packers hungry to not dig themselves in an 0-2 hole.

It looks like a favorably matchup for a fantasy quarterback, but I advise to sit Cutler. He may throw for 270 yards and a few touchdowns, but the interceptions will be two or more. Most fantasy owners did not draft Cutler anyways as their starter, so it should not be a hard pressed decision for you.

Other fantasy worthy players to sit would include Mike Bush and Alshon Jeffrey. Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte are both in a class of their own in their respective positions, in the top five for fantasy purposes.

Analyzing the spread of 51.5 for the over and under. One would cling on the over automatically after the Bears week one and expected fire of Green Bay. I look for the Packers to enforce the ground game and milk the clock on drives. A contrarian view of predictability. The Packers know they can score quickly if needed but running up and down the field is not a successful game plan.

Running the clock and putting the pressure on the Bears to respond is. The longer Cutler analyzes and sits on the sideline the more anxious he will get. He is a quarterback that gets anxious to make the big plays and lets a handful of balls leave his hand that never should have. Take the Packers with the six point spread and the under of 51.5

Cowboys/Giants Fantasy Preview

Tuesday, 4 September, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

When these two teams meet, playing defense is usually cast to the side. It’s been an offensive show on prime time, and the NFL has it set up once again for these two to be on display.

Everyone knows last season, the Cowboys and Giants were in a late season match up that the Giants stole from the Cowboys. That win gave the Giants the momentum they needed to finish the season off strong and sneak into the playoffs. Like they did in 2007 they were hot at the right time and steam rolled into the playoffs.

Starts to their season are what typically get both of these teams into trouble. December has been one of the better months for Eli Manning and Tony Romo in the wins department.

Those concerned about a couple of Dallas Cowboys players playing on Wednesday will have to wait up until kickoff, especially on Jason Witten. Witten is expected to be a game time decision. Miles Austin on the other hand returned to practice days ago, and will play. How effective he is after missing a bulk of practice and preseason games remains to be seen. The natural chemistry he has with Tony Romo makes him a safer play than most coming off injury at wide receiver.

Breaking down a game from a fantasy perspective usually is a showcase of who to start at each position. When it comes to New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys players it’s not necessarily on who to start. The talent on both of these teams are top tier guys that went high in fantasy drafts. They’re supposed to be your bread and butter fantasy players. Which guys will stand out though?

Eli Manning is the type of mid level fantasy quarterback that will drive you crazy. It’s what you get for waiting until the middle of the draft to secure your quarterback. The good thing with Eli is his usually god for a pair of touchdowns and those typically come off big plays. He has extremely talented wide receivers but with Dallas’s signings in the secondary this could be a troubling game for Manning. With the raucous Dallas crowd as an edge as well, I’d sit Manning this week in fear of turnovers being an issue.

Dez Bryant has had his fair share of negative media attention, and rightfully so. Football may be his only means of staying out of trouble right now. With a season started and a new focus with mandated rules, Bryant could be set for a career year on the football field. With Miles Austin just returning and Witten up in the air, Bryant should be the main guy. Double digit fantasy points is almost a guarantee.

With the Cowboys injury woes and the Giants trying to fill in depth at wide receiver with the departure of Mario Manninham there is a shot for a lesser known player to have a breakout game. That will not matter for most fantasy teams until next week when you’re scrambling for the waiver wire. Domenik Hixon is a player that has been around the Giants organization for quite some time, and had a decent year in 2008. He just simply lost playing time with Manningham and Cruz surpassing him.

If Dallas decides to blanket Cruz and Nicks a good portion of the time, it could lead to Hixon having a solid game. Nothing extraordinary but a touchdown to go along with fifty receiving yards is always a bonus.

Defensively I believe this game will have better defensive performances than we are use to seeing between these two. For one most of the players yapping away about their respective teams are coming from the defensive side of the football. Another reason is the odd early start of Wednesday. These teams will be ready but the first full game is typically one where the defense shines a bit more, especially in a divisional rival game.

Tier Two/Three RB That Will Produce As a One

Sunday, 2 September, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The ever valuable running back gem landed in the latter part of fantasy drafts can be the overall difference maker come December. A few years ago it was Arian Foster who ran wild on defenses and sprung fantasy teams to title success. It’s not typical but you can land that back from an array of happenings. It usually takes an injury or a new environment for that to be a possibility.

There is a running back out in Chicago that has exactly that. A solid contract and a history of producing higher each of the last three seasons. Michael Bush just needs the carries, and based on Mike Tice’s ideas he could very well get those.

Holding out as Matt Forte did was done in part because he was so heavily involved in the Bears offense the last few seasons. These were not improvised play calls that Forte happened to be the check down option. Mike Martz wanted to bring the St. Louis Rams offense of his hey days to Chicago. Once the Bears figured out they did not have the receivers to do so, it turned into the best show by Forte. Runs and designed quick throws to Forte led to him catching over 50 passes each of the last three years.

Carries with the ground attack are there for two backs nowadays. The Bears did not over run Forte with carries, as they substituted the dump off passes to lessen his load. This year will be different with Mike Bush in the fold. They did not sign him to be a back that only carries five to seven times a game.

He will see at least ten carries a game. With how much of a threat Forte is out of the backfield it would not be shocking to see both behind Cutler. This backfield could be comparable to Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams or even ex Giant, Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw.

That means a heavy workload inside the ten for Bush. Chicago has the capability and weapons to be a top ten team for points offensively this year. That’s a bonus for Bush owners, who know Bush has been one of the better number two running backs in the league the past two seasons.

A typical running back is going to have his share of injuries throughout the season. It may not lead to not starting, but playing through injuries can be just as detrimental. Forte is coming off an injury and the Bears will want to protect him by taking necessary precautions. That means handing the ball to Bush and if there is a short stint of games Forte misses, than they would rely on Bush heavily.

While in Oakland Bush has had a knack for getting starts due to injury. He started seven games in 2009, three in 2010, and nine a year ago. If he can get near 160 to 180 carries you can expect Bush to be a borderline number tier one fantasy back that you start in your RB2 slot.

The quiet benefit with Bush is he can also catch the ball out of the backfield. You do not see that arsenal with many backs Bush’s size. Last year though Carson Palmer threw to Bush 37 times for over 400 yards receiving.

Even if Bush does not get two to three starts due to injury, we know what he can do in a strong role behind a starter. Just because a back does not reach 1,000 yard mark does not mean you should deter yourself from drafting him. Bush will outdo plenty of backs ahead of him in rankings and ADP.

Expect 700-750 yards rushing, near 200 yards receiving, and double digit touchdowns from Bush.

Do the Bills Have Confidence in Fitzpatrick?

Thursday, 30 August, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Over the years Buffalo has become one of the teams that loves to have quarterback controversy. From recent battles with JP Losman and Trent Edwards, to Fitzpatrick himself versus Edwards, and the great battle of Drew Bledsoe vs. Losman, and Rob Johnson and Doug Flutie. Just like their division rival Miami Dolphins, Buffalo has had just as much of a struggle solidifying their starting quarterback since Jim Kelly retired.

You would think a maximum contract value of 59 million over the course of six years would be the proper vote of confidence in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Oh those tricky Buffalo Bills. Fitzpatrick’s guaranteed money is only 24 million, which means Fitzpatrick still has to prove himself each and every game.

Buffalo has been much more willing to spend free agency money the past few seasons but none was a bigger statement than offering and securing Mario Williams. With the offense young and on the rise, Buffalo believes they could be a playoff contender if the defense rises another level.

It’s not often that a journeyman quarterback for over five years finally finds his niche and begins playing well, as a Rich Gannon or Trent Green were able to.

Fitzpatrick has done that at times. He has advanced with his reads and abilities to throw the football down the field. Areas he still struggles are in the turnover department. When he is off, he can be like Carson Palmer and throw for multiple interceptions like he can afford to. Full time starters in the NFL do not throw two or more interceptions in half the games they played, and that’s exactly what Fitzpatrick did last season.

After getting his new contract, the second half of the Bills season last year was woeful for Fitzpatrick. Some of that can be blamed on not having his bread and butter running back Fred Jackson. Jackson was the beat to the offense, and did more than most would acknowledge. Weeks nine through eleven Fitzpatrick threw two touchdowns and a total of seven interceptions. Followed by another stretch in December in which he threw four touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Those are stretches that would find most starters on the bench, and may have happened to Fitzpatrick last year if it were not for the contract he landed. Buffalo made a lot of commotion this off-season for a backup quarterback and landed both Vince Young. A journeyman many figured would put the heat on Fitzpatrick for starting snaps.

We all know how the preseason went, and Young was cut as a result. In many preseason battles teams would stop right there with quarterback acquisitions and have faith in there other backups. Tyler Thigpen is a quarterback that has started in both Miami and Kansas City, and won the backup quarterback position.

One solid backup is not enough for Buffalo and they decided to trade for Tavaris Jackson.

If you’re Ryan Fitzpatrick there must be sub conscious thoughts that the organization is having its doubts with him. He has fought off the doubts the past few seasons, but an area he has to cement for the organization is his consistency. When he is on, Fitzpatrick can be that quarterback gem you started on y our fantasy team and got away with it. When he is off he can be the sole difference in a loss for your fantasy team.

Something is up in Buffalo with all the quarterback moves they have made. Some would believe it’s just to have insurance at quarterback. Look around the NFL and look at the backup propositions if injuries were to occur. Less than ten teams probably have a quarterback that teams would be comfortable having to start beyond one game.

Downgrade Fitzpatrick’s fantasy value going into 2012. Just as the last few seasons, his play on the field would have to develop for him to have waiver wire meaning. I do not believe he finishes the season as Bills starter. His interception rate just gets to high at crucial stretches.

Back Most Affected by Dual Backfield System

Wednesday, 29 August, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Many fantasy owners are enamored by Reggie Bush heading into the 2012 season. As a Dolphin last year he finally had the type of success many thought he would getting drafted into the NFL. For a guy that has not had near the success in his first five seasons in New Orleans, many are wondering what will happen this year as a Dolphin.

While in New Orleans after failed chances at being the featured back, New Orleans decided to relegate his role to sort of a decoy. A few carries here and there and try to spring him out for quick passes to let him utilize his speed. When his free agency came along, the Saints did not feel the value offered by his agent was true to what he brings on the field.

Miami though decided they would try to re-tool and utilize him differently. Up until week thirteen of last year it looked as if Bush was going to have another sub-par season. He only had one game rushing over 100 yards up until that point, and Miami was content at using Daniel Thomas just as much as they were Bush.

Thomas was banged up though out the season and that’s when the door opened a bit for Bush. Weeks 13-16 Bush ran wild and totaled 519 yards rushing including his monster game against the Buffalo Bills. Those yardage numbers were almost equal his season total through twelve games. So was the finish to Bush’s season in 2011 an aberration or can it carry over to 2012?

Even though Miami has a new coaching staff, it has serious holes offensively. A rookie quarterback and a depleted receiving group will force Miami to run the football as much as last season. The fact remains to be seen though if Miami will give more carries to Daniel Thomas over Bush. Thomas is more of the prototypical back and had success as a rookie last season.

Bush will see his carries head backward from the twenty carries a game he received weeks thirteen through sixteen. Miami also drafted rookie running back Lamar Miller in the fourth round. He should not pose a threat to either Thomas or Bush. It’s more of a pick to secure the backfield due to Thomas’s injury history and Bush’s size.

I would not consider Bush as a weekly fantasy starter. He can be a RB3 with possible starts based on Miami’s consistency with Bush. The question for Bush owners should be how many fantasy points can they expect from Bush with around twelve carries a game. That is what he averaged the first eleven games of 2011. Thomas will figure to get near fifteen carries a game.

This is what makes it tricky for Bush owners, because Bush can be treated like a hot jump shooter in professional basketball. Once on the field, if his first five to seven carries are explosive and getting the offense going, Miami will likely feed him an extra amount of carries over Thomas. If he is not getting the necessary yards than Miami will pound it with Thomas.

It’s an unusual circumstance that does not occur with most backs around the NFL. Bush should average six to eight fantasy points per game in standard leagues, and ten to twelve in PPR leagues. Expect around 750 yards rushing and five touchdowns on the year.