Automatic/Don’t Do It

Another Gear, Speed Kills

Thursday, 22 August, 2013

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When talent evaluation occurs for NFL prospects an area of focus tends to be an athlete’s forty yard dash speed. Al Davis was notorious for heightening the speed at combine’s and over reaching for athletes in the NFL draft. He wanted speed on the field and when a match occurs with talent, it’s deadly on the football field.

For us in the fantasy sports world there are scales of receivers that have speed, but are they worth drafting? Year after year the draft occurs and some of these names may have fallen off your rememberance track. Get them back in your fantasy view.

Tavon Austin- St. Louis
In college Austin was a mismatch seemingly as soon as he stepped onto the field. Years from now people may forget the link of Austin to quarterback Geno Smith, but Austin had a lot to do with Smith’s success. St. Louis and Sam Bradford are hoping the same will translate to the NFL. His size at just 5’8, and near 180 pounds could be a cause for alarm.

Calvin Johnson- Detroit
Yes Megatron is who he is, and will appear on almost every freak list, because he is just that. He possesses the strength, speed, and leaping ability to destroy secondaries with what ever weapon he chooses to.

Travis Benjamin- Cleveland-
The second year pro had a semi-decent rookie year with the Browns adjusting to a new quarterback and running back. By bringing in Norv Turner, Benjamin could see even more of a spike in production. He is primarily a speed threat, but Turner will figure out a way for Benjamin to have a niche in his offense.

DeSean Jackson- Philadelphia Eagles
One has to wonder if at this point in Jackson’s career if he would be better suited to be a wide receiver two in the NFL. With McNabb and Vick years ago, Jackson could get away with the deep route plays against almost any corner in the league. Nowadays it’s tougher for Jackson and that diminishes his value on the football field, and hurts the offense. From a fantasy perspective, Jackson has to be looked at as a WR3, due to his unreliability on a week to week basis.

Mike Wallace- Miami Dolphins
Wallace got his payday with Miami in the off-season. Watchful contract eyes will now be on Wallace. Will the payday cause a retreat in his performance on the field, or will he catapult the young Ryan Tannehill to another level? Wallace’s average yards per catch is sky-high and will not go away. As long as Wallace does not disappear in games and can catch around 70 to 80 balls, he will be a constant in the top twenty and likely shoot closer to the top ten/twelve fantasy wide receivers.

Others With Speed, but Not Fantasy Football Worthy
Jacoby Ford- Oakland Raiders
Trindon Holiday- Denver Broncos
Darrius Heyward-Bey- Indianapolis Colts

Top 60 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings

Tuesday, 20 August, 2013

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Did you hold your fantasy draft back in June or July and now are left staring at a roster you believe to be the best possible? There can only be one hype man of your team and that’s you. By week one you may find yourself needing to upgrade. Rankings by your fantasy league via rotisserie stats are meaningless. Pay attention to weekly rankings here.

After the second week of the preseason here are where the running backs rank.

! Denotes On The Rise
^ Denotes On The Decline

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Doug Martin !- Owners and soon-to-be draftees worry not. Martin did not sustain a concussion on his knee to the head in week two of the preseason.
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Arian Foster ^- Foster has not let little nagging injuries in the past few seasons deter his fantasy success. One can escape a couple of times, but the injury bug is calling Foster’s name. Precautions seem to be the main reason he is missing preseason. For fantasy owners Foster is the top ten back that has the most question marks.
6. CJ Spiller
7. Ray Rice
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Alfred Morris
10. Chris Johnson
11. Trent Richardson
12. Stevan Ridley
13. Ryan Matthews
14. MJD !- MJD is quickly falling out of the top tier of fantasy backs. As we’ve seen with top fantasy backs of the past, once the fall begins, the drop descends rather quickly from fantasy relevancy.
15. Matt Forte
16. Frank Gore
17. Darren McFadden
18. David Wilson !- The Giants just have a knack for having that steady backfield. Manning’s had Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, and Ahmad Bradshaw who have all been fantasy studs at one point or another.
19. Steven Jackson
20. Lamar Miller
21. DeMarco Murray
22. Andre Brown
23. Reggie Bush
24. Chris Ivory
25. Vick Ballard
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis ^- Green-Ellis’s biggest impact for fantasy owners were his mauler runs for six in the red zone. Still Ellis was an every down back that could provide chunks of yards to those plungers. Giovanni Bernard has been electric in games and in practice. Carries will be taken away from Ellis slowly but surely, and likely a higher fashion of split carries than Ellis has seen in quite awhile.
27. Darryl Richardson
28. Rashard Mendenhall
29. Darren Sproles
30. Le’Veon Bell
31. Mikel Leshoure
32. Bryce Brown !- The fast pace expected from the Eagles has to come with movement of backup players at key positions. Running back is at the top of the list as the Eagles will do all they can to protect Vick’s health.
33. DeAngelo Williams
34. Eddie Lacy
35. Ronnie Hillman
36. Giovani Bernard
37. Mark Ingram
38. Shane Vereen
39. Ben Tate
40. Jonathan Stewart
41. Bernard Pierce
42. Montee Ball
43. Fred Jackson
44. Jonathan Dwyer
45. Ahmad Bradshaw
46. Danny Woodhead
47. Joseph Randle
48. Isaac Redman
49. Jacquizz Rodgers
50. Fred Helu
51. Donald Brown
52. Mike Bush
53. Mike Goodson
54. Pierre Thomas
55. Alfonso Smith
56. Joique Bell
57. Jonathan Franklin
58. Denard Robinson ^- Each year there is a new wrinkle unfolded by franchises to muster yards on the football field. Robinson’s use as a Jaguar should be one of the more curious developments in the early weeks of the season. This will not be like the Pat White experiment Miami tried. Robinson will get direct carries from the backfield as he has in the first couple weeks of preseason and at Michigan last year.
59. Knile Davis
60. Daniel Thomas

Calm Down With Sudfeld Projections

Tuesday, 20 August, 2013

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Preseason can be one of the harsh gray areas for fantasy football participants to over predict. Just because someone has a stellar preseason does not mean it will carry over into the regular season. Actual sleepers tend to come during the season and are because of injury. With Rob Gronkowski’s rehabilitation dragging into the season, many are quick to wrap their sights and take Sudfeld as a sleeper now.

Before you pull that trigger on Sudfeld lets calm the storm before you get tossed into it. It’s evident that Sudfeld would step into a significant role with New England. As Tom Brady has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league at diagnosing mismatches with his tight ends. The skill set that Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez had over Sudfeld is obvious. They were more athletic and possessed the speed to whirl by their opposing defenders. Seam routes were fantasy havens for owners of Gronk and Hernandez especially when it came down to red zone opportunities.

Defensively teams had to pick their poison on who was at-risk in one on one coverage especially when both Gronkowski and Hernandez were on the field at the same time. Their ascent to the rise of tight ends in the NFL was largely due to their complementary abilities of each other, and the fact that they were deemed elite tight ends coming out of college.

Before Brady had the duo of Hernandez and Gronk, Brady never had even close to the success statistically over the first nine years of his career. In the pre-Gronk and pre-Hernandez era Brady had unreliable fantasy tight end targets. Remember the names of Kyle Brady, Ben Watson, and Christian Fauria? I’d guess maybe ten percent of you had Ben Watson as your fantasy tight end during those bottom tier years of tight end significancy out of New England.
Watson’s top year receiving yards wise was 643 yards and he also topped out another year with six touchdowns. Christian Fauria and Kyle Brady were did not even touch the blips of waiver wire consideration.

My point with New England is they’ll likely figure out a shuffle of guys not just Sudfeld to make due for however long Gronkowski is out. The Patriots will not let it be known just yet what the time table for Gronkowski return is. More than likely the team will keep him out as long as possible to ensure proper prevention is met this time, as he has been unstable with injuries over the past year.

Sudfeld sure had an great performance in the first game of the preseason. Teams have no true game plans going in and sure as heck did not have Sudfeld in mind for assignment attention. Regular season will be a different story. If he is going to see twenty plus plays on the field, the opposing defenses will be ready for him. He is a big target at 6’7 with soft hands but does not possess the physical or speed attributes that New England had with Gronk and Hernandez.

Sudfeld’s three touchdowns in the preseason are bound to cause some fantasy football owners to reach out for Sudfeld as a *sleeper*. Others can buy low on Sudfeld as I do believe his three touchdowns in two weeks of the preseason are an aberration. Come the regular season I’ll be shocked if he reaches that touchdown total for the entire season.

Who Are the Top Az Hakim’s For This Season?

Monday, 12 August, 2013

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The spread offense is not just for the wildcat or to expose a simple mismatch at the tight end position or with a team’s number one wide receiver. Third receivers or slot receivers use to make their bread and butter primarily on third and longs. That has all changed, and teams are in three wide receiver formations more now than ever. All the continued progress in quarterback’s stats climbing has to be divied out amongst his receivers.

A top caliber fantasy quarterback and even mediocre is going to eclipse the 4000 yard mark with ease. Factor in a top tight end that’ll snag 800-1000 of those yards and an elite wide receiver who will garner between 1000-1400 yards. That leaves a good 40-45 percent of yards left for the rest of the receiving core to gobble up.

St. Louis and Az Hakim were the ones that set the tone in the 2000’s on turning up the offense and having the capability of having three consistent fantasy studs (Bruce, Holt, Hakim) on any given week. Being a notch below as a third receiver on a solid passing team can mean all the world. You have seen third receivers outdo certain teams number ones and twos.

Who are this year’s top Az Hakim potential studs?

Sleepers:
Robert Woods- Buffalo, Domenik Hixon-Carolina, Davone Bess-Cleveland, Terrence Williams- Dallas, Josh Boyce-New England, Kenny Stills- New Orleans, Andrew Hawkins- Cincinnati

1. Eric Decker-
It’s hard to classify Decker as the third wide receiver option, but someone has to be amongst Thomas and Welker. Decker can play any number of roles at wide receiver as he did in college at Minnesota and in his first few seasons with Denver.

2. TY Hilton-
Hilton may be the Colts third wide receiver listed on the depth charts but he is soon to be Andrew Luck’s favorite target. Reggie Wayne keeps staving off age but his years are dwindling down. Hilton just has that big play explosiveness that will keep him on the field for a high amount of plays.

3. James Jones-
Last year was sort of a reappearance for Jones in terms of value. He had dipped quite a bit but was able to get back in the fold with injuries at the receiver position. With Jennings gone to Minnesota and Jordy Nelson recuperating from minor surgery, expect Jones to continue to splatter the fantasy radar.
4. Reuben Randle-

I do not expect Hakeem Nicks to be in and out of the Giants lineup anywhere near to the amount of games that plagued him last year. Randle stood out in action when necessary, but Cruz and Nicks are going to get a high share of Eli Manning’s percentages.

5. Keenan Allen-
I’m one of the few expecting Philip Rivers to bounce back from an awful past couple of seasons. He seems to always find talent amongst his rather non-standout talents at receiver. Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Brown are still around, but I expect Allen to jump into the mix sooner than later.
6. Andre Roberts-

Roberts flourished with quarterbacks such as Kevin Kolb and John Skelton, mainly because they saw him as their safety net. Fitzgerald is going to continue to draw the disguised coverages to prevent big plays, so that will keep Roberts freed up in one on one coverage. Michael Floyd is about a year away from making a difference. I expect Roberts to outdo him statistically for a second consecutive year.

7. Ryan Broyles-

Broyles steps into to the spot occupied by Titus Young just a year ago. Young for all his issues had some quality production as the Lions third wide receiver. The Lions love throwing the three wide receiver set at defenses, and Broyles is the perfect speed-slot option for this offense.

Bypass Kolb and Insert Manuel

Sunday, 11 August, 2013

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The old adage of learning from the sidelines in the NFL has been displaced over the last five to ten years. Teams never wasted time with their high draft picks in other positions to learn on the sideline, so why did they do it for years with quarterbacks? There was a time and age when salaries were not in as high of demand and coaches could dictate a relative time span to insert a quarterback. The goal would be to progress enough with a veteran while the young quarterback learns his role and offense properly.

Advancement in college offenses has enabled quarterbacks to come in with playbook smarts to adapt to the game quickly. Sure coaches may have to tailor their game plan a bit more to five to ten secure safety net plays, but that’s expected. You do not want to overwhelm your rookie quarterback off the bat. The more and more success rookies have (Roethlisberger, Newton, Dalton, and last year’s crop) gives future draftees a little less worry.

I expect the Bills to give EJ Manuel his keys to the offense and let him start week one against New England. Many know the Bills new head coach, Doug Marrone, as the ex-Syracuse coach, before Syracuse though he had many years helping as an offensive coordinator with the Saints and other NFL teams. He has an NFL background and will have the Bills prepared to surprise some people.

At Syracuse the offense is what made Ryan Nassib a high valuable quarterback in last year’s draft. He matured as a four year player at Syracuse, but the offense Marrone and his Syracuse staff tailored for him made Syracuse all that much better. They also had a solid ground game that busted open defenses time after time. Jerome Smith and Prince Tyson-Gulley were the two backs that ran the system to perfection last year. Marrone will aim for the same success and likely get it with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.

A two back system as quality as the Bills have partnered with their boosted defense should dramatically lessen the burden on EJ Manuel. The offense will be predicated on simple throws from Manuel when needed. He also has the scrambling ability necessary to extend drives.
This Bills team for all the damage of turnovers they had with Ryan Fitzpatrick, still managed to perform decently and hang in games. Their defense should be even stronger this year and they will be able to steal a few surprise games.

Week one at New England may be one of those games.

Flashback to a year ago in the NFL and take a look at who won on the road in New England’s first home game of the season. That was the Arizona Cardinals, led by…….Kevin Kolb. Kolb went on to have a horrific rest of the season that all but ended his ties as an Arizona Cardinal. The key point is that you never have to have an All-Pro quarterback to win games in the NFL. Heck, the Cardinals did not even have a solid ground game.

The Bills have much to offer Manuel as a team, and he’ll grow with that nucleus of players the Bills have. I expect Manuel’s role to be a bit less but comparable to how the Vikings use Christian Ponder. Select throws and enough rollouts and scrambles to keep his mind free during the games. The Bills will let their backfield and defense decide the games for them in year one of EJ Manuel’s career as a Bill.

Tight End Rankings August 5th

Monday, 5 August, 2013

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A tight end by many fantasy owners is over looked. Keying in on high valuable position players such as quarterback, running back, and wide receiver is the bulk of a successful draft and season. The cream of the crop at the top of leagues though typically have a narrow gap of separation points wise. You need to have success at the tight end, defense, kicker, and flex positions in order to hoist your league trophy and money league prize. In order to do that you need to be thinking of a tight end plan, especially if you do not plan on getting a top tier one.

Here is an early look at the rankings of tight ends. Stay tuned for updates throughout the preseason and regular season.

1. Jimmy Graham- The Saints do keep marching in, with Drew Brees and monster tight end Jimmy Graham.
2. Jason Witten- The Cowboys have had issues year after year building a winning team. Witten has not been one of those issues.
3. Rob Gronkowski- You have to hope all the hoopla surrounding Gronkowski’s injuries will be erased and his play on the field will speak for itself once again.
4. Tony Gonzalez- The Falcons pursued Gonzalez to come back, and why not? He seems to have plenty left in the tank, and would have likely regretted watching a powerful Falcons team return in 2013.
5. Kyle Rudolph- I like how Christian Ponder developed last year. He still had his woes and may be a game manager, but the Vikings do not need him to be superman. He is about eight feet behind him already in the backfield. Rudolph should post similar numbers and will be there a round or two after the top four tight ends go. He is a valuable tier two tight end If you can get him.
6. Vernon Davis
7. Greg Olsen
8. Owen Daniels
9. Antonio Gates
10. Jermaine Gresham
11. Brandon Pettigrew
12. Ed Dickson
13. Jermichael Finley
14. Heath Miller
15. Jared Cook
16. Dustin Keller
17. Fred Davis
18. Jake Ballard
19. Coby Fleener
20. Delanie Walker
21. Martellus Bennett
22. Dwayne Allen
23. Scott Chandler
24. Kellen Winslow Jr
25. Rob Housler
26. Visanthe Shiancoe