Second Year NFL Player’s With High Return Value

A rookie in the NFL is sometimes just shown the ropes. They may have the talent but the coaching staff believes too much of a burden on the rookie could hurt the team and progression of a player in his rookie season. It may be hard to believe but not all coaches want instant success by crazy statistics. Just helping the team out with a third down catch and not dropping the football might be what he is looking for. Impactful small plays such as blocking down field, and running the proper routes is something the coaches can see that growth is being made. Year two more opportunities present themselves and depending on the length of that player’s first contract, market value is going to want to be assessed. Grooming has been done and those player’s will now get a chance to flourish even more. I’ve profiled some players that are in their second season that should be of fantasy significance from statistics they put up last season. Qualifying factors can just be a better supporting cast, an expanded role, or just signs that they’re ready for a boost from your bench to potential fantasy starter. Quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill Miami is looking for Tannehill to scale forward a bit and show an added dimension. He showed flashes last season that he is capable of doing it. Were those flashes a result of timely called plays by the offensive coordinator, or Tannehill’s innate ability to read defenses? Most of the rookies shined last year and Tannehill was not one that disappointed. Miami did not add wide receiver weapons in Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson to not test Tannehill’s arm. Brady is aging in New England, and Tannehill may be the quarterback to take over the division of the AFC East. Running Backs Vick Ballard The Colts just recently traded away Delone Carter, and many are not sure what the health of Ahmad Bradshaw will be. For now Ballard will be given the chance to be the Colts full time back. I think he will garner a double digit carry type of output in the Colts offense. Indianapolis does not shy away from trying to score, and needs to with their defense being sporadic. If Ballard can showcase that he is the number one back, the touchdowns he will get will make him a solid RB3. He’ll have to fight off Donald Brown and Bradshaw though. Bryce Brown Brown put on a nice multiple week span for owners that were a little nervous without LeSean McCoy. As of now that’s all Brown’s value is. He is a high insurance handcuff for a first round draft pick in McCoy. Though in Chip Kelly’s high octane offense he may dot the fantasy top twenty five running backs a handful of times even as Philadelphia’s second running back. Ronnie Hillman Denver has a bit of a mess at running back, and will likely have one of those dreaded back fields from a fantasy perspective. Hillman is the guy the Broncos want to have the role, but he did not prove a year ago that he can handle full time duties. Montee Ball was brought in and will be the back the Broncos go to in short yardage situations. Hillman though might have a CJ Spiller type of value. Spiller also had some short comings early with Buffalo before supplanting Fred Jackson. Keep an eye on Hillman’s yards per carry, as he does possess great open field speed. Lamar Miller Miami decided to let Reggie Bush walk away and test out Miller’s worth. They’re all in on Miller and the rest of the NFL may soon figure that out as well. Durability may be a question with Miller. Look for Miami to protect Miller by off setting his carries with Daniel Thomas who has been a disappointment thus far. Miller is one of the few backs in the NFL that will have a solid ratio of carries higher than his backup running back. Daryl Richardson If backfields tell the story over time, than St. Louis management likely made the right move by letting Steven Jackson sign with the Falcons. Over the last ten years the Rams have had Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson as their running backs. Truth be told it was amazing how long Jackson lasted their with the high amount of carries and the way he carries the football. It’s Richardson’s backfield now and fantasy owners have to be impressed with the 4.8 yards per carry he had a year ago. David Wilson Crushing news to the Giants fans and organization is that of Andre Brown being out for the season with a broken leg. Wilson must now be a factor down back instead of just a home run threat. The Giants will find someone either on their roster or on waivers to fill the cushion carries role. Wilson has to be thrilled about his current opportunity as well as fantasy owners. While the rise of impact may be great on Wilson early, keep on eye and see how he handles the role in November and December when he surpasses 200/220 carries. Wide Receivers Justin Blackmon Herman Edwards preaches on air at ESPN for athletes to stay out of trouble. I’m sure Justin Blackmon was at the rookie symposium when he was warned of the lures outside of the football field, and how to act. The symposium didn’t matter as Blackmon had a DUI issue and will miss four games to start the season. No one can tell what is going on in a player’s head. His repeat issues have to be a cause for concern, but if he is able to sidestep those issues he showed last year that he can be a force. Ryan Broyles Detroit has never shied away from testing the arm of Matthew Stafford and won’t in 2013 either. Broyles will fill the slot receiver role and should get well over 60 catches in the Lions potent attack. If he can steal a few of Calvin Johnson’s touchdowns his value goes up even more. Chris Givens Many are down on St. Louis as they’re expecting their pattern of wins/losses to revert back to a major loss season in 2013. They’ve been back and forth on the pattern since the 2009 season. They’re an infused team with youth so the fine line of winning or losing will be a small margin. Givens impressed last season and is ahead of second round draft pick Brian Quick in terms of overall value. Reuben Randle Randle did a fine job as a rookie when injuries presented themselves. The Giants are going to continue to air out the football, and as long as you’re a top three wide receiver in the Giants offense you’re fantasy worthy. Randle is that and we know Hakeem Nicks injury-history. Victor Cruz’s foot issue in preseason that is carrying into the regular season boosts Randle’s value as well. Michael Floyd Throughout the first part of the 2012 season it looked like Floyd was lost, and losing ground quickly in his first year with the Cardinals. He shook off that notion and finished the season strong with a stable of quarterbacks that were down right putrid. Carson Palmer will adjust all of the Cardinals receivers statistics in an upward direction in 2013.

Fantasy football is all about having an inside edge, and finding a sneaky sleeper or a breakout player that no one else in your league can identify. Of course, this is easier said than done. With every site online, from your fantasy league host site to Rotowire offering sleeper candidates and late round pickup ideas, it’s hard to find something that your friends and opponents haven’t already picked up on. But, in the spirit of trying, here’s a look at 10 RB sleeper candidates outside of the obvious picks of Giovanni Bernard and Eddie Lacy.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew
I know, I know… MJD can’t possibly be called a “sleeper.” But look me in the eye and tell me you were considering him 1st round. The bottom line is, this guy can play, and he’s healthy, and he’s in a contract year. Betfair lists him in the top 10 best odds to lead the league in rushing, a feat he’s accomplished before. MJD is an RB1.

2. Daryl Richardson
Lost in the Steven Jackson fantasy hype is the fact that his St. Louis replacement, Richardson, is primed for a big year. He’s not an RB1, but don’t overlook him.

3. Lamar Miller
Miller is being largely overlooked, but in replacing Reggie Bush as Miami’s main back, he’s in line for a significant production bump.

4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Uh, everybody? Green-Ellis is still the starter in Cincy. Gio Bernard is deserving of the hype, but don’t overlook a starting RB option!

5. Shane Vereen
Stevan Ridley is perhaps a bit over-hyped this year, following his 2012 breakout. The Pats will likely lean on Vereen at times as well. Plus, he doesn’t have Danny Woodhead around to take touches from him anymore.

6. DeAngelo Williams
Jonathan Stewart is hurt, and D-Willy will finally get to be an RB by himself this season. Sure, Mike Tolbert will vulture some TDs, and Cam Newton is the Panthers’ best runner – but look for better fantasy numbers from Williams.

7. Jonathan Dwyer
The Steelers are remarkably unsolved in the backfield, but Dwyer figures to have a strong shot at ending up as “the guy.”

8. Vick Ballard
Keep an eye on Ballard as a bench option. He’ll be backing up Ahmad Bradshaw in Indy, but Bradshaw can be fragile, and Ballard is capable of being a #1 back.

9. Danny Woodhead
Looking for a fresh start in San Diego, Woodhead will likely get a chance to shine backing up the generally disappointing Ryan Matthews.

10. LaMichael James
If Frank Gore stumbles in San Francisco, LaMichael James has the pedigree to get a shot at stealing the RB1 job. It’s no guarantee, but he’s a great draft-and-stash candidate.

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The season-ending injury to tight end Dustin Keller is already rearing its ugly head. Clearly, Miami needs to identify a target at receiver to fill in even more as a possession receiver. Saturday the Dolphins settled for three field goals in which they dominated the Buccaneers in yardage by almost 2 to 1. Yet, they lost not all just because of their red zone inefficiency (three costly turnovers) but it’s something that cannot be overlooked.

Charles Clay who is supposed to be the tight end to replace Keller had another putrid outing with just one catch against the Buccaneers. Tight end is vital for any young quarterback. This is a sticky situation for Miami entering the season, and will put added pressure on the perimeter for Miami’s receivers. It also will allow the linebackers to cheat up more in the box to stop the run, as Clay has not shown to be a quick outlet safety valve in preseason action.

One positive Saturday was the play of Brandon Gibson. A free agent bolstered addition to the Miami receivers along with Mike Wallace seems to be emerging quickly. Tannehill looked for Gibson quite often Saturday. The pair should have had two touchdown connections. One was dropped by Gibson in the back of the end zone. It was in an awkward spot where Gibson looked to have lost his concentration because he was trying to land his two feet without being crunched by defenders and also avoid the bottom of the field goal post. The ball went in his hands and as his shifted his body to land his feet the football slipped out.

At least a few drives later Gibson redeemed himself with a short four yard touchdown catch right before halftime.

He finished the evening with a Dolphin high five catches for 43 yards. Do not be too alarmed by the yards per catch. In the regular season Mike Wallace has proven throughout his young career that he is one of the best deep threat receivers in the NFL. That won’t change and that is going to allow Gibson to develop even more with a high amount of under route catches. He will be Miami’s new Davone Bess and critical to the Tannehill having a reliable possession receiver.
Gibson should have fantasy owners thrilled in PPR leagues. His projected 50 or so catches should jump by at least an extra fifteen, and maybe five to six touchdowns. Not a fantasy starting wide receiver, but a receiver you can insert against a team like the Patriots, or for a bye week fill in. His catches each week make him a borderline fourth receiver in deep leagues.

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There is no secret fantasy football has taken off exponentially over the last several years. For those of you that just became interested over the last three to four years, you probably have done standard leagues for the most part. More than likely you’ve been approached a few different times to partake in an auction league. If you said yes this year here are some basic tips for success.

Back in the day even before standard draft leagues, leagues that use to be popular were salary cap leagues. They’re still around, but dwindling down to fantasy football extinction (head2head.com still is very popular) but smallworld, sandlot, and others around years ago have fallen of the earth. I, myself have not done a salary cap league in over five years. The basis of a salary cap league is kind of how an auction league is based. Salary cap leagues would give you an X amount of dollars (salary cap) and each player would be given a dollar value based on his skill set.

So back in the day in a $200 salary cap league, high stars were likely in the 50 to 65 dollar range. Fantasy league roster spots were similar to today and salaries will shift throughout the season. The fun of it was that you could gain dollars if you bought an athlete low, and use that to bolster your roster. I’d say if you have not done one of these leagues and want to join one this year head to sportingnews.com. They probably have one of the best free salary cap leagues around.

What really has taken over the dollar strategy leagues is auction leagues. People like to have self control and auction leagues put you in that position off the bat, just like standard draft leagues. I’m sure after three or four years being in a standard draft, you’ve seen a mistake or two from someone inexperienced in a fantasy football draft.

That laughter you had then, and mistake pick you capitalized off of might be staring at you for your first auction draft.

Here are four basic tips to have success in your auction league

You Have Money, Spend It. Don’t Be That Guy/Gal
Your given an X amount of dollars to spend. When it’s all said and done you typically do not want to have dollars left over. If you do, you were over cautious and missed out on depth and better profile players. At the end, if you’re the one buying consecutively you know you did something wrong. Just because you have the most amount left and can outbid everyone, means nothing because you didn’t partake in the majority of the auction.

Let’s compare the bid wars show on A@E as an example. If you came to bid on a storage unit and waited, waited, and waited, and then the last two units shown you decided to bid on, you’re left with a limited upside and more than likely duds. Bid early with everyone else and manage your money as the draft goes.

Have a Strategy
The main purpose of an auction league is that you have full control of each and every player you can get. For the most part you should be able to control 70% of your roster outcome, especially the cream of the crop. Sure, you might have to outbid aggressively for a couple of players, but that’s the cost of having a sure-fire top notch athlete. Go in with an aggressive mindset that you’re going to get seven to ten players. You’ll be surprised how many of those athletes you end up with.
Use Common Sense
This goes hand and hand with strategy, but you need common sense when piecing together a roster. You’re the GM, and you have to surround your team with high caliber automatic high ceiling athletes, middle-tier, and value based with potential. If you lack the common sense to envision a team with prospects along with stars, than you’re in a world of hurting. You need to spread out your dollars and picture yourself as a GM taking risks and outplaying the other ten to thirteen fantasy owners in your league. Remember, these aren’t computers automating selections. Have a mind, and outthink as if you were on the poker table.
Your Team is Assembled, Now Manage It
Just like in professional sports, a draft with talent looks good on paper. Ironing out the rough spots (bye weeks, injuries, poor performance) needs to be a daily and weekly focus for you. If you end up like a NFL coach or GM that is too trustworthy of his talent, you’ll fall flat on your face. You need to be prepared to dump players that don’t perform, go for a couple of trades, and out bid league owners on certain waiver wire acquisitions. Don’t fall asleep at the wheel once your draft is over. Wake up and smell the coffee on the players that are dragging your team down. Even if you’re doing well early, there are other owners pushing to outpace you before season’s end. Outsmart them and ensure your team is not going to falter.

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The fact that Le’Veon Bell went down to injury is noteworthy. Now that it has been classified as a mild sprain, fantasy owners can prepare for the Steelers backfield over the course of the first four to six weeks of the regular season. It’s not like owners have not seen it before. This has occurred frequently in the Pittsburgh backfield since Rashard Mendenhall went down a few years ago, and never could overtake the position last year.

Offensive worries for the Steelers should be more focused on the offensive line and protecting Big Ben. Todd Haley’s offensive play calling will be in serious question if the Steelers continue to get over ran in the trenches on the offensive line. They need to perform better as a unit or it will not matter if Tim Tebow is in the backfield for crying out loud.

Let’s pick apart the current Steelers backfield of Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and LaRod Stephens-Howling on who will be the main threats for fantasy points. I do believe all will pay a vital role, as Todd Haley coordinates the offense more around a tailored power game, until the offensive line shows more cohesiveness.

Biggest Threat:
LaRod Stephens-Howling is one of those scat backs that has developed over the years as a suitable guy out of the backfield in third down situations. When injury woes last year in Arizona to Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams occurred, Howling showed that he can do more than be a situational down athlete. He had two one hundred yard rushing games last year. On a poor Cardinals offense he was still under-utilized. The Steelers saw value in him and I believe they’ll tinker with using his skills more with Bell out. Quick screens to keep the defense honest is always a key play to have. That’s not a possible play to run with Dwyer or Redman

Best Option:
Jonathan Dwyer’s break away speed and burst through the hole may be dead last in the NFL, but Dwyer is a big body that defenses have a hard time bringing down. He averaged four yards a carry last year but never really grasped a hold of the tail back position like the Steelers would have liked. Based on his preseason thus far and compared to Redman, Dwyer looks like the guy the Steelers would lean on. He needs to find his way into the end zone more to be of fantasy significance, as putting up DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart rushing yards is not going to cut it. By the Steelers drafting Bell that should have been a wake up call for Dwyer. I think he’ll respond and exceed fantasy expectations the first month of the season.

DOG HOUSE FANTASY OPTION:
Fumbleitis does not go away in the minds of head coaches. Isaac Redman may be a contracted Steeler but neither Todd Haley or Steelers Head coach Mike Tomlin is going to lean on Redman after his three fumbles on just 110 carries last season. Quite frankly the Steelers would have leaned more heavily on Dwyer if he had the versatility as an all-around back. Now that Stephens-Howling is in the fold, and barring Howling’s health, I do not believe Redman will see the field nearly as much as fantasy owners are with Bell out.

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A turnover in football is always unexpected and the vast majority of the time causes chaos on the field. Delayed reaction from coaches to challenge the play, turns into referees going to the monitor for an extended amount of minutes to see if the play was correct or not. Once the call is upheld or over turned that delay turns into an instantaneous move on your stat tracker. Minus two to such and such a player occurs, and can derail momentum for your fantasy player.
On the field that turnover produced by your fantasy player could mean a negative impact the rest of the game. Maybe he got hurt on the play, or his head coach may decide he needs to alter the runs or throws that player is doing. Occasionally that player may even be told to take a seat or he may see his carries reduced heavily the rest of the game.

Unfortunately in fantasy football your bench is non-existent when it comes to being interchangeable on game day. With all the advents in scoring and league changes, I would not be surprised to see leagues that allow roster moves live. There’d be kinks to it, but a move of a player could only happen with a player that is ahead on the game clock in terms of quarters to be allowed to be substituted for a player. Seemingly you would not be allowed to sub an athlete out that scored four points in three quarters for one that’s playing in the late game.

I’ve seen it all too often where an athlete has eight to ten fantasy points and then a turnover rattles them to the point they’re ineffective the rest of the way. You have to know who are the prone athletes to turning the football over. Here are fantasy worthy positional players that were at the top of the league in fumbling and interceptions last season. Quarterbacks I have showcased both interceptions and fumbles.

QB INTS QB Fumbles RB Fumbles WR Fumbles TE Fumbles
Romo 19 Rivers 7 Chris Johnson 4 B. Brown 3 D. Thomas 3 Pettigrew 2
Brees 19 Vick 5 McGahee 4 Morris 3 Megatron 3
Luck 18 Luck 5 Redman 4 McCoy 3 Colston 2
Stafford 17 Cutler 4 Jackson 4 LeShoure 3 Amendola 2
Rivers 15 Rodgers 4 Spiller 3 E. Sanders 2
Ryan 14 Stafford 4 Charles 3

At quarterback you see two names linked to both interceptions and fumbles. If they’re not considered a tier one or two fantasy quarterback I left their names void on this list. We’re only considering starter stats that affect your results in fantasy scoring. Matt Stafford and Philip Rivers were both in the top six for fumbles and interceptions, and each drove their fantasy owners crazy a season ago. Stafford owners more than Rivers because of the notoriety that came with selecting Stafford as a high round draft pick. Linking Stafford to such non-illustrious fantasy weeks is easy now that we see the turnover issues. Not only was he forced to throw the football too many times, but defenses were able to unload with pressure because they knew the Lions were throwing the football. Even though Rivers is a downgraded fantasy player these days, you have to wonder if a revamped change in coaching may help protect Rivers a bit more.
Running backs main goal on the football field is to protect the football. A coach does not care if it’s for a one yard pile plunger, or an open field burst. The ball carrier is taught to protect the football, and it is harped on every day in practice. Punching the football out and gang tackling to produce a fumble is becoming more of a skill by defenders. All in all fumbles are going to happen but they need to be analyzed versus the amount of carries a back has received.
Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller combined had seven fumbles on the season in 2012. That’s not acceptable from a backfield that is supposed to try and aide their new rookie quarterback. When news broke out of Le’Veon Bell’s foot injury many would think Isaac Redman has a solid chance to reclaim a role like he had a year ago. He may get a few carries in the mean time but the Steelers will likely look elsewhere after Redman’s four fumbles on just 110 carries last season.

At wide receiver and tight end the fumbles are not as worrisome. One they’re handling the football on a much less of a ratio than a quarterback or running back. Secondly, if a fumble occurs with a receiver or tight end they are more than likely flying down the football field. If the ball pops out chances are they’re close to the sideline, or in the open field. Further away from the line of scrimmage increases the opportunity of a recovery by the offense because the defensive lineman and linebackers usually are not down the field.

The only player I’d be concerned about would be Marques Colston. His total fumbles were only two but four were forced on him. He is a taller body that never necessarily had speed coming into the league. Ball protection will be heightened for emphasis when it comes to Colston by his coaching staff.