Backup Quarterback Fantasy Mistake

Follow@cimini Many covet grabbing a top rated player and player’s in the first six to eight rounds of fantasy football drafts. We all know that injuries run rampant for starters because they are on the field the most. Grabbing other starters in the mid to late rounds with possible upside is the area owners lack preparation on. Complaining about injuries every year to why your team fell apart gets old. Pre-plan better and execute proper acquisitions in your entire fantasy draft. If a GM of a team became lackadaisical with their mid to late round draft picks, you’d see it on the field. Turnover of those draft picks would be evident. When it’s time to depend on those young athletes there is no one to properly do so, and the team morale dips. You’re in charge of your fantasy team, and it can’t all be revamped through a trade or the waiver wire. Josh Freeman is a fantasy quarterback that likely went undrafted in a large portion of drafts (Available in 63% of Yahoo Leagues). Freeman is a quarterback that I believe is going into 2013 vastly underrated. Everyone is high on Doug Martin, and the Buccaneers receivers in Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. A simple premise would lead you to believe that Freeman could and should bounce back in 2013. He is in the second year with this Buccaneers core group and offense. A running game is supposed to open up the passing attack—and Martin is projected to be a top three to five running back. If Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams build upon last year—as they should—who is going to be a beneficiary of their success? Josh Freeman A lot of people believe Freeman is not the guy Schiano wants to back, and feel Freeman fits the old Jason Campbell mold. Solid but not good enough to garner a starting position in the NFL. Wait a minute. Just a few seasons ago Freeman quelled that speculation with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Even last year his touchdown totals were not bad with 27. That total ranked him 7th in the NFL for touchdown passes. Sure his interceptions at seventeen were higher than people would like, but the fact is, Freeman can throw the football. I do not believe the Buccaneers will opt to bench Freeman in favor of Glennon. If they do it’s going to be much later in the season, when the Buccaneers are clearly out of playoff contention. The potential is there for Freeman to have a bright season and surprise some folks like he did a few seasons ago. We’re not talking about a quarterback I’d expect you to draft as a starter. Freeman is a backup fantasy quarterback just being overlooked. Do you really want Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and several other quarterbacks drafted as backups over Freeman? All of the quarterbacks I just mentioned have shaky running back situations—in fact only Rivers has one that should be decent but has been tabbed rightfully as injury prone and inconsistent. Freeman may not cut his interceptions down dramatically, but a rise in touchdown passes could offset that. I’ll re-state that he threw 24 touchdowns in his first full year as starter, and then 27 last year under a new offense. You’d think the next step would be to reach darn close to thirty touchdown passes. He is in a contract year as well, with the burden of performing well on his shoulders. The veterans in the NFL are well established and then there is the budding talent of youth that has stormed the league. Guys like Josh Freeman are being overlooked far too much. He has better fantasy caliber than quite a few fantasy backup quarterbacks that were drafted over him. I don’t expect the Yahoo fantasy ownership numbers to be below 75-80% for far too long. In fact, I’ll boldly state that Freeman is one of the biggest percentage leapers from non-rosters before the NFL season to being an addition by week four.

Fantasy Start/Sit Em’ in Baltimore vs Denver

Follow@cimini NFL football kickoff is just three days away. The return of America’s favorite sport features Baltimore vs Denver. The pair had one of the more dramatic finishes in the 2013 playoffs that catapulted the Ravens as eventual champs. It will be the third time since December that the teams have played against each other. Thursday games are always tricky for fantasy owners. It’s a fact that last year’s Thursday Night NFL games sailed under the total in eight of ten divisional games. Ones that featured non-divisional matchups—such as Thursday nights’ game will- were vice-versa. Totals ran past the number. That’s a shot of confidence for any Broncos and Ravens fantasy owners, as the total sits at 48. I’d expect that to keep climbing before Thursday’s kickoff. There are lingering questions about both defenses. What else is new? Joe Flacco carried the Ravens offense with a down defense last year and will look to do the same in 2013. Peyton Manning has been doing it his whole career. If preseason football is an indicator slightly of issues, I’d get the flag waving for the bull’s attention. Both defenses struggled against mediocre quarterbacks. That should only rise against the prolific quarterbacks in Joe Flacco and Peyton Manning. Even with Flacco having to adjust without Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin. The hurry up offense is another variable to consider for Thursday’s game. Denver will run it and look to get the home crowd fired up early in the first quarter. With the hurry up offense, batted balls or quick reads can become troublesome. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Raven defender jump a route for a pick six. It won’t hinder Manning for the entire game, but veteran quarterbacks are always susceptible to the pick six. With skills diminishing what they’ve seen in the past and could do, is trickier to the eye early in the season (Manning struggled with this last year). Offensively this is a juggernaut game for fantasy owners. It’s an automatic to start all the core players at the quarterback and wide receiver positions on both teams. With Wes Welker getting his debut as a Bronco you can expect the Broncos to force feed him the ball early. Just re-tally Welker’s stats from New England and pencil them in. They’re as automatic as a free throw from Steve Kerr. One receiver may take a hit will be Eric Decker. Sit him this week if you have better options. If you’re willing to settle for around four catches for fifty to sixty yards than play him. An area Baltimore Ravens fans don’t want to admit but was there, is the Ravens ineffectiveness to stop the run. The Broncos do not have a top tier backfield, which makes things shaky for fantasy owners. At this point no one drafted Ronnie Hillman or Montee Ball as their RB1. Unless you’re in a flex conundrum I would not even think twice about inserting either. Stick with the first two backs you drafted for week one. Ball or Hillman can help fill cracks in your lineup if injuries come up. Furthermore, Hillman did not do anything to pad his stats in two games against Baltimore last year. He ran for thirty two yards on fifteen carries in December, and in the playoffs had a meager 3.8 yards per carry average. For Baltimore the fantasy questions linger on to start Flacco or not. He is typically a bubble starter like Eli Manning or Big Ben. Some fantasy owners choose to draft two quarterbacks late and work with a rotation each week, sort of like USC this year. If you’re an owner in that situation I think this a good week to start Flacco. The score is going to be high in this game, and Flacco is not going to want to back down. Champ Bailey just returned to the practice field Monday. I’m afraid the Broncos organization may be leaning on Bailey a bit to heavily, and did not have the guts to part ways like the Packers did with Charles Woodson. There will be opportunities for Flacco to utilize his great deep ball several times in this game. Torrey Smith will be the recipient of one, and do not count out Jacoby Jones. Both should be in your lineups this week. Smith your WR2 and Jones your WR3 or flex option. I’d even consider inserting Ed Dickson. The name on the back of the jersey does not mean anything to Flacco. He favors his tight ends and with the Broncos weak link in the secondary , they’ll be susceptible over the middle after a few deep ball connections from Flacco. Overall the only flaw of a non-starter would be the Broncos tight ends, running backs, and too much uncertainty on how the Broncos are going to spread the ball with all their weapons. That hurts Decker for this week. Have a go and give the green light to the Ravens and Broncos players in your fantasy lineups. Any fantasy questions or handicapping questions I can be reached instantly @cimini on twitter.

Go For The Fade

When it’s red zone time most people want to gravitate to the coaches inserting their power back in I formation. With the rise of quarterbacks statistically throwing the football more, there are other key red zone stats to look out for. Big tall targets are a quarterbacks best friend inside the five yard line. Knowing the tallest receivers in the NFL that are likely to be thrown a fade route, is yet another key stat you should know going into your fantasy football drafts. The fade route is one of the most common throws on the goal line. Seemingly every team knows it’s coming, but teams just can’t stop it. The reason why is because of the height advantage and leaping ability with a wide receiver over the smaller defensive back. That and the quarterback and receiver have worked on the route countless times. It’s a timing route that the receiver and quarterback have a spot in mind before the ball is even snapped. All the receiver has to do is go up and get it. Here are some guys you should keep in mind for the fade route. Obvious names such as Calvin Johnson, Fitz, Bryant, Colston, Jackson, and Dwayne Bowe I’ll keep off this list. Mohammed Sanu Sanu had his ups and downs as a rookie a year ago for the Bengals. It looks like he has overcome some of his struggles and will be the second receiver for the Bengals this year. He is a tall target and has already had a nice fade route touchdown catch with Andy Dalton in the preseason. Attention is coming AJ Green’s way for the third straight season, and will keep things open for Sanu in the red zone. Mike Williams Mike is not necessarily the tallest receiver, but he is a touchdown gobbler in red zone. He could be having a horrific game, and then have his one catch for six yards and a touchdown. That’s what makes Williams a different type of tier two wide receiver. He has done it many of times where his catches and yards may not be there in a certain game, but he makes up for it with a meaningful six point touchdown catch for you. Justin Blackmon When he returns from suspension Blackmon should and will be a commodity for fantasy owners. His physique and abilities is what made him a top draft pick a year ago out of Oklahoma State. I actually think he’ll still come close to his numbers from a year ago even with a four game suspension. Golden Tate A fade throw might not be how Russ Wilson looks for Tate, but the two have a knack for connecting in the red zone. Tate had seven touchdowns last year, including a couple of big game winners. A deep ball catch against the Patriots and the replacement referee’s jump ball notoriety catch. At 5’10 the Seahawks work and look for Tate as if he was 6’3. Malcolm Floyd The red zone is still Antonio Gates’ but age and loss of speed mean that others can and will have a chance to still Gates thunder. Floyd has filled that role somewhat over the past few years, but the Chargers are still looking for that Vincent Jackson type. If healthy Floyd, at 6’4, is still the primary receiver to have the best opportunity. Jon Baldwin His role in San Francisco and how he develops is the key here. The Chiefs obviously did not like his development so sent him for another receiver in AJ Jenkins. With Michael Crabtree out and Anquan Boldin aging, Baldwin may get a chance to replant his NFL steps and take ahold of an opportunity. In college he was dominant at Pittsburgh, and has the size at 6’4 is a quarterback’s best friend. Alshon Jeffrey Knowing the lingering effects of Brandon Marshall’s hip injury will be a high indicator of what Jeffrey’s season will look like. If Marshall is hindered by the injury mentally and physically on the field, it will give Jeffrey’s a prime chance to have a breakout season. Trestman’s new offense is expected to be fantasy friendly, and Cutler should look Jeffrey’s way plenty of times.

Forty Million Dollars Later

Follow @cimini When Greg Paulus decided to re-open his recruitment to attain a last year of eligibility via a college’s graduate program, many believed Syracuse would be the school he chose. Doubts crept quickly though on how Paulus would play the position of quarterback after spending the last four years as a Duke point guard. The answer was easy. Find and throw to Mike Williams as much as you can. Paulus did just that and the two had a dynamic combination. Williams broke a Big East record with touchdowns in nine straight games and had the attention on NFL scouts. Attention that Syracuse had dropped the distinction of becoming possible for several years as a cellar team in the Big East. In a span of weeks Williams promising return from academic troubles to a productive junior season looked like it was washed away again. New head coach Doug Marrone had suspended Williams and other Syracuse player’s for violating conduct. Williams would not return to play another down at Syracuse. Tarnishing his draft stock was inevitable and did as he fell to the fourth round. Williams had a choice to make at that moment and throughout his first three seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers his name has remained out of the unwanted type of athlete news---Ticker Flash News Across ESPN. Instead he relished the opportunity to do what was correct and let his career as an NFL receiver be the only objective as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. As a rookie in 2010, Williams helped Josh Freeman to a career year with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Williams caught an astonishing eleven of Freeman’s 25 touchdowns. A new dynamic tandem had been branched together down in Florida. A tandem Florida likely has not seen from any of their teams in Jacksonville, Miami, or Tampa Bay since Mark Brunell to Jimmy Smith. That’s how bad the three franchises had been over the last five to six years between quarterbacks and wide receivers. 2011 did not fare well as a team for Tampa Bay and Williams did not play near as well with the added attention by defenses to him. It was a combination of things and Tampa Bay ultimately decided to let Raheem Morris go. Greg Schiano was brought in and anytime a new tenure is enforced changes on roster’s can happen at the drop of a dime. Vincent Jackson was signed to a mega-contract and that made Williams role even more unclear heading into the 2012 season. Playing on a rookie contract for a fourth round pick, Williams was once again faced with an opportunity to step up or have the walking papers handed to him. He rose to the occasion and put up stellar numbers as a likely WR4 or WR5 in most fantasy leagues. Fantasy playoffs are the time to shine for participants. More and more attention is being paid to athletes that can put forth a different type of season in that final stretch of the fantasy playoffs. Mike Wiliams did that and had four touchdowns in the last five games of the season. Tampa Bay did not hesitate to retain Williams as they see a bright future for him alongside Vinny Jackson. Quietly they re-signed Williams to a forty million dollar contract. Now it’s time for Williams to put the same type of work in he has throughout his years at Syracuse and Tampa Bay to prove that his contract is worthy. Vincent Jackson is a young thirty years old, so chances are high that this combination will be together for at least three to four seasons. Not too bad for an athlete that had twelve other receivers drafted ahead of him, including Arrelious Benn. A second rounder drafted by Tampa Bay who is no longer on the team, and trying to make the Philadelphia Eagles roster now.

Austin Gives Rams Two More Wins

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Diamonds in the rough for fantasy owners seeking gems on poor NFL teams may not be worth the risk. There are always a handful of teams that are not fantasy football friendly. Yardage and touchdowns are going to happen, but the pace and frequency they come by will vary to the extreme on some NFL teams. You should only have high questions on a mere one or two players that you draft. Upside is what you seek with your fantasy roster depth. For that to happen you’ll look for players that are third wide receivers on high potent offenses or maybe a rookie or two that could flourish in the second part of the season. Like Dennis Green said after blowing a fourth quarter lead on Monday Night Football , “They’re what we thought they were”. If you’re on a diet and still mixing in sweets, you fully know that you’re results are not going to be what you want. The same holds true in fantasy football. You know going into your drafts they’re certain teams to avoid. Here are teams that should be in your future fantasy football draft plans, like a planned vacation in a few years. New York Jets Yes the Jets crack this list once again. The same issues are at the forefront as last season, with question marks the size of 2009 Rex Ryan at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Santonio Holmes has played like an athlete far below where he was as a Steeler, and Stephen Hill looked like was drafted way too high for a second round pick. I can’t see the Jets having a receiver eclipse the 700 yard mark. There may be some hope at running back with Shonn Greene finally gone. Chris Ivory is just returning so will have to see how the time share works with Bilal Powell. Seattle Seahawks I can hear the die-hard Seahawks fans screaming at the fact that they’re team is listed on here. Fantasy football is about value at positions. Positionally speaking they have not been a team that has garnered value at wide receiver. Fans thought there was a chance when Nate Burelson was brought in and then Sidney Rice. Neither were successful. Then Percy Harvin was brought in but he is lost for the season. The fact is Seattle has a way of winning and it’s found that way without having a dominant receiver. Seattle has not had a receiver reach over 1,000 yards since Bobby Engram in 2007. Buffalo Bills Poor Douggie Marrone. Syracuse is looking quite nice right now isn’t it? Just two weeks ago Buffalo fans and the rest of the NFL were drawing back on their harsh criticisms of drafting EJ Manuel so high. Furthermore who some people wanted Marrone to draft, in his college quarterback, Ryan Nassib, has struggled horribly in preseason. In a quick snap Manuel went down and now Kevin Kolb. That’s forced Buffalo to potentially start an undrafted rookie in Jeff Tuel, and signing Matt Leinart. And you thought the Bills had it bad with the Trent Edwards to TO combination a few years back. Having Matt Leinart to serve as your veteran leader to provide feedback to Tuel and Manuel is a recipe for disaster. Oakland Raiders The tug of war struggles to take the first team snaps has plagued Matt Flynn again. Neither Pryor or Flynn have jumped out at me in preseason. Running the football for success like Pryor has happens when you’re down 20 plus points, like the Raideres were to the Bears. If you want to play from behind to have statistical success, than by all means, shoot for that goal. Oakland needs to address the quarterback situation by aiming for one through the draft. The carousel of rotating back and forth with Flynn and Pryor this season may be the ugliest of all quarterback situations. This may even trickle down and effect Darren McFadden more so than people may think. San Diego Chargers This team has some hope, but I need to see some early season indicator to take them off this list. Keenan Allen could be a prospect worth watching. A player of his caliber needs a solid veteran or two at receiver to help him prosper on the field. With Danario Alexander out, Robet Meachem non-existent, Eddie Royal battling issues, and Malcolm Floyd battling injuries, one has to wonder who Philip Rivers is going to throw the football too. There is a lot of names but no one truly to step in and fill the voids of three top caliber wide receivers. Antonio Gates isn’t a spry up and down quick maneuvering transformed basketball player to tight end anymore. He is slower version that relies more on his size and hands, which is a recipe for more interceptions from Rivers, as safeties and linebackers have more time to react. It’s not all horrible. Here are some teams that have been taken off the fantasy oasis of no value from 2012 to 2013. Arizona- All it took was a change over all around for the Cardinals to make a move at quarterback. As long as Carson Palmer stays healthy this should be a revitalized offense. Miami- They’ve upgraded at receiver and even though they took a blow with Dustin Keller going down, they have a solid young nucleus of talent. Kansas City- They’re barely off the bubble. But Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn put the stamp on worse offensive output possibilities last year, even over Arizona and the NY Jets. Alex Smith and the mind of Andy Reid should change things a bit. Jacksonville- Look for Jacksonville to do better than people think. Quarterback, Blaine Gabbert is just 23 years old. His mistake was likely leaving for the NFL a year early as far as for his progression on the field. It was smart in terms of dollars as he did not make the Matt Barkley mistake. Gabbert is younger than Russ Wilson (24) and Ryan Tannehill (25), and the same age as Andrew Luck and RG3 who were all drafted a year after Gabbert. Jacksonville went the old school way of building through youth and through the draft. They’ve taken a lot of down years for it, but they might have a structure ready to blossom finally.