Fantasy Focus for Thursday: Chiefs vs Eagles

Follow@cimini Each week I like to profile Thursday’s games to give fantasy owners some clarity in setting their lineups early. Thursday’s game profiles the Eagles potent offense squared against its former coach in Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Reid has been known for his unbalance in the ground attack vs the air attack. Will he have the Chiefs ready to play Chip Kelly ball or can he force the tempo to his side and slow things down with Alex Smith’s playbook? Quarterbacks Philadelphia’s defense has reverted quickly back to its old lay down and get thrashed ways. In their last six quarters they have given up yards and points galore. San Diego attacked the defense exactly like a college team does against potent offenses. Short quick throws and mixed in runs that eat the clock. Philadelphia could not get up on any of the routes and it allotted Philip Rivers to have one of his best mistake free games in quite a while. Kansas City has the same type of offense that might be even more simplistic with the dink and dump attack. Smith also has scrambling ability that should bolster his fantasy stats for the week. Smith though will not be rated any higher than a mid range teen ranking this week. Vick, on the other hand, is a no-brainer to insert in your lineups. Kelly will find a way as he always does to develop the run or pass with his high velocity play calls. For those worried about the Chiefs currently having a top five defense don’t be. They faced the Jaguars week one and were getting torched by the Dez Bryant in the first half this past Sunday. Dallas than reverted to poor play calling that deflected away from Bryant’s involvement in the passing game. Running Backs Thursday’s game usually does not present itself as a stat filler for running backs. This week should change that with Jamaal Charles and Shady McCoy matching up. Kansas City sort of held back Charles this past Sunday against the Cowboys. Maybe it was because of the short week ahead, and they realize his value is high on the barometer against a poor Eagles team. Against Dallas he only had sixteen carries and his involvement was not it’s typical use. Shady McCoy may have a tough time against a Chiefs defense that is stout against the run. Where they struggle is in the passing game, so the Eagles will likely find McCoy out of the backfield and with quick screens to loosen the Chiefs front seven. Wide Receivers The question with the Chiefs receivers is who is next to step up. In an odd week where the Chiefs will have to pass the ball, there will be other receivers and weapons that dot the fantasy radar. Dexter McCluster is poised to breakout this week. He has been split out as wide receiver in several packaged plays. His role in the backfield has diminished but don’t be surprised if the Chiefs involve him in a few decoy plays back there. Donnie Avery is another to consider as he had a touchdown a week ago and has been getting a solid share of Alex Smith’s mediocre passing yards thus far. Owners of Dwayne Bowe are anticipating one of those monster games he used to put up two to three years ago. He should be able to get into the end zone at least once. From Philadelphia’s standpoint it’s a full go from the regulars in DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper, and Jason Avant. X-Factor: Tempo Being a short week questions will linger if Chip Kelly may slow things down or Andy Reid may extend drives. Kansas City may do so on a drive or two, but I don’t believe Andy Reid has faith in that style of football. He’ll play to win and score. For those worried about the Eagles not being rested on a short week should pay attention to how rested they should actually be. Against the Chargers they were not even on the field for twenty minutes of game action. The Chargers had the football for over forty minutes while the Eagles held it for right under twenty. The Eagles will be right back to their all out arsenal attack offensively.

Week Two Starts

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Did you make a crucial mistake in week one by starting a player you shouldn’t have? It happens to all of us. Predicting and looking at matchups is never easy. I’ve named some players to sit this week for week two, and now here is a look at positional players too start for week two.

Quarterbacks

EJ Manuel
The Bills did a great job in making things simple for Manuel in his matchup against the Patriots. At home again this week, I look for Manuel to have an even better game against a suspect Panthers defense. Manuel’s accuracy has been solid and his decision making sound from what he has shown in limited preseason action and last week.

Josh Freeman
I was down on Freeman week one but on the season overall I wrote a preseason column that he shouldn’t be overlooked as your fantasy backup quarterback. Here is a great week for Freeman to showcase his fantasy assets. Greg Schiano and the Buccaneers are limiting Freeman when they can. Against the Jets the offense was too simplistic with basic runs and quick slants. This week the Bucs will have no choice but to run and gun against the Saints if they want to keep up in the game. Look for Freeman to shine and be a top ten fantasy quarterback this week.

Terrelle Pryor
Motivation in a sport is the root of everything. Jacksonville as a team may be at rock bottom already. Pryor on the other hand appears ready to flourish. He was always a winner at Ohio State, and it appears he used the last few years on the Raiders to fully commit himself. His passing skills are not the best but the Raiders have an intemix of packages to keep defenses honest. Pryor should have himself another heck of a game.

Others: Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, and Brandon Weeden

Running Backs

Ryan Matthews
Just a few years ago Matthews was considered not only a top fantasy back sleeper but was drafted as a top tier back. He wasn’t able to fill LT’s shoes but still remains the Chargers sole viable running back. Ronnie Brown is cemented as a complimentary back at his age and will not over take Matthews. That lives prime games of favorable matchups in Matthews favor. This week is one of those games against an Eagles team that should be vulnerable against the run all season long.

Vick Ballard
Ballard’s role with the Colts is still undefined as the use of Ahmad Bradshaw remains unclear. Ballard though is the best back the Colts have, and I expect the Colts to use him more and more like they did to end last season. Miami’s a balanced defense but they have to pick their poison with the Colts. Their focus will be on shutting down Andrew Luck and the Colts passing attack. That’ll leave running lanes for Ballard to have a big day and get into the endzone.

Steven Jackson
There is no doubt that Jackson has had his calendar circled for quite some time. The Rams did not want to utilize Jackson as a one man back anymore, and left the door open for Jackson to go elsewhere. He did and had an unspectacular week one performance as a Falcon. The Falcons were not balanced offensively that game and will surely put together a more effective game plan at home.

Others: Eddie Lacy and Monte Ball

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Kyle Williams
Anquan Boldin can’t do it himself every week. Williams seems the best suited to step up on a consistent basis out of all the 49ers role player receivers. He has the speed and chemistry with Kaepernick to be a solid fantasy sleeper. This week will be the first of many that Williams steps up unexpectedly.

Jared Cook
The Rams used Cook heavily in the preseason and rolled it over into week one. If it weren’t for a Tyrann Mathiue chase, Cook would have scored three touchdowns in week one. Defensive coordinators have game planned for Cook as if he were the same under utilized tight end from Tennessee. The Rams have other plans for Cook and are using him like a top five tight end.

Davone Bess
No one could have been pleased watching how poorly the Ravens secondary was lit up in the second half by the Denver Broncos. In all areas from both corner spots to safety coverage and even drop back coverage by the linebackers, the Ravens could not do anything right. This should be a high scoring affair where the Ravens try to win the game with their offense. With Cleveland without Gordon, Davone Bess will have some more balls thrown his way by Brandon Weeden.

Others: Michael Floyd, Rod Streater, and Brian Hartline

Week Two Sit Em’s

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You’re prepared for your waiver wire moves that will go through tonight in your leagues. Knocking on the door are your official lineups for week two. Obviously teams that are considering Patriots or Jets players in their lineups need to submit just over twenty four hours.

Here is a breakdown of player’s to sit for week three. Starters will be unveiled before the end of the week.

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford-
The Rams did a great job battling back at home down double digits in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately they’re facing a Falcons team that is as potent as they come at home. If Atlanta jumps out to a big home lead like they’re capable of, it could spell trouble for Bradford. He shouldn’t be a starter in your fantasy league anyways, but those that have two middle tier quarterbacks will have to opt for their other option this week.

RG3-
Based on his week one performance it looked like Griffin will need at least two more games to get settled in. The Redskins kept him in the pocket to prevent any hits or unnecessary scrambles against the Eagles. Green Bay’s defense gave up 34 points to San Francisco, but played much better than the end result. They’re an aggressive bunch that should capitalize on inaccurate throws from RG3.

Ryan Tannehill
Miami does not want to get into a weekly spot where Tannehill is having to throw the football near 40 times a game. They need to get the running game going or it’s going to put too much pressure on Tannehill on the road for back to back weeks. Look for Tannehill’s numbers to come down sharply from his week one output.

Running Backs

Benjarvus Green-Ellis
Cincinnati suffered from a large lead against Chicago that they relinquished because of a lack of fire power in the backfield. Green-Ellis’s days may be numbered just like Cedric Benson’s were as a Bengal. For all the slack the Steelers caught for their week one performance, their defense was strong. The Bengals may find themselves like the Giants searching for a free agent running back to boost an ineffective ground game.

MJD-
There are a plethora of issues in Jacksonville, and this year I don’t think even MJD can bypass them. He was stifled week one by a tough Kansas City Chiefs defense. Things may not get any better against a young and underrated Raiders defense. Teams are not afraid of the Jaguars passing attack and will load the box until Justin Blackmon returns.

DeMarco Murray
Murray at this point is turning into a Felix Jones 2.0. He burst onto the scene with a monster 200 yard game his rookie season that pushed out Jones, and catapulted Murray to a heralded position last season. That caved quickly with poor performances and injuries. It looks like the Cowboys are honing back Murray’s burden to keep him healthy. He is a borderline number two fantasy back and likely won’t crack the top ten for weekly fantasy backs much this year.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

James Jones-
I was not impressed with Jones’s week one efforts against the 49ers. Call the 49ers one of the best defenses all you want. Jones has one of if not the best quarterback in the league that had to stop looking his way because of an early drop that resulted in an interception. Rodgers is a winner and looked to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb the rest of the game. This may linger for a few weeks and will impact Jones numbers until he makes a big play.

Steve Smith Panthers-
Week one results are infamous for overreactions. But one team that I believe is in a dire state is Carolina. If the Panthers are in the middle of the second quarter and struggling offensively, you can forget about a strong second half. Smith is a veteran now but it wasn’t too long ago that he was known as a hot headed receiver. I don’t see Newton and the Panthers having a bounce back week on the road against a strong Bills defense.

Greg Jennings- Minnesota Vikings
The Bears defense knows Jennings all too well from his days with the Packers. Tim Jennings and Peanut Tillman may have been roasted by AJ Green week one, but they’ll get back to their proper shut down ways week two against Jennings. Minnesota has had a tendency to over pay for receivers and that’s what they’ve done with Jennings.

Brandon Pettigrew
Arizona is going to have their hands full with the Lions potent offense that has Reggie Bush to its arsenal now. A year ago when the Lions traveled to Arizona, the Cardinals scored several defensive touchdowns as Matt Stafford continued to force balls. Stafford was a bit dinged up as the season wound down, and looked as if he was care free with the Lions dismal record. I don’t see the Lions offense being held back but I do see Pettigrew continuing to struggle.

A Look Ahead: Fourth Quarter Killers For Week Two

Follow@cimini Having players on bad teams has an advantage in one quarter. The fourth. Roster depth is usually on the field defensively, if a team is up significantly. That gives the team losing plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. There have been quite a few athletes that have made a living doing gaining the majority of their stats in the fourth quarter. Brandon Myers of Oakland last season was one who relished in this role. You should know going into each week who are the potential fourth quarter killers. It gives you options for the tough starting positions on your team, and also gives you a vantage point of a few players your opponent may have. Best Matchups Oakland vs Jacksonville- The Jags were rocked at home, and now will have to go to Chad Henne like they did last year, as Blaine Gabbert has been declared out with injury. Raiders fans will surely be hyped up after watching Terrelle Pryor show better than advertised presence for the Raiders offense. Oakland fans have a sharp memory and do not forget. Just last year Jacksonville traveled to Oakland in a game that went to overtime. Chad Henne stepped in that game and blew a lead that Jacksonville had. Oakland’s defense looked fantastic against the Colts last week. Pressure was constantly on Andrew Luck, and they really settled down after two opening drives for scores by the Colts. They’ll have to be better on third down which is where Indianapolis did most of their damage. Players to be fourth quarter killers for Jacksonville: Marcedes Lewis, Cecil Shorts, MJD. Dallas vs Kansas City- Dallas somehow made a game in which they controlled the turnover margin more interesting that it should be. There were holes all over the defense, and pressure is still squarely on Tony Romo’s shoulders due to a ground game that looks like it’ll be mediocre again. Kansas City is one of the toughest places to play. Andy Reid came to a Chiefs team with an already great defense, and now gets to tinker with the offense. Many will jump on the Cowboys bandwagon after week one’s big victory. But I believe out of all week one teams, the Chiefs look like they are the most prepared on both sides of the football. Andy Reid dialed back the offense once the Chiefs had a three touchdown lead in the first half. Expect the Chiefs to grab a big lead and Tony Romo to have his usual distraught face late in the game. Players to be fourth quarter killers for Dallas: Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten Carolina vs Buffalo- If New England did not have the play calling capabilities that they have and Tom Brady, Buffalo would have grabbed a high caliber win week one. Buffalo is always a tricky place for quarterbacks to play. The home crowd and variable winds are something to keep on eye on. Buffalo’s defense is one of the better teams at creating turnovers, and will be able to capitalize on a highly vulnerable Cam Newton. If the Panthers have an early miscue or turnover watch out. Offensively I think the Bills have enough playmakers at receiver and with skill backs Spiller/Jackson to put up better numbers than the Seahawks did a week ago. Players to be fourth quarter killers for Carolina: Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, Steve Smith, and Ted Ginn Jr. Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati For all the butt whippings the Steelers laid on the Bengals throughout the years, this could be a reversal Monday night. Pittsburgh’s had glaring issues from last season, this preseason, and now week one’s loss to the Titans. Cincinnati has more balance in every facet of the game than Pittsburgh does. Big Ben use to be able to make up for the Steelers deficiencies with his scrambling and pocket presence, but even that isn’t there for the Steelers right now. He just does not have enough time to make sound decisions. Players to be fourth quarter killers for Pittsburgh: Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, and David Johnson

Stretching the Field

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If you’re in a formatted league that gives points based on big plays, then you’re happy to have quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers that have great averages per throw, run, or catch. The impact on receivers that have high yards per catch alleviates the risk some if a player is limited to under five catches. Let’s look at some players that exceeded their positions in averages per pass attempt and per catch on Sunday.

Key Stat Filler Game of the Week: Packers vs 49ers

Both Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick put on a show Sunday. Kaepernick completed almost 70 percent of his passes. Some were blown coverages by the Packers and others were darts in tight windows. Kaepernick seems to not mind being a drop back passer if he needs to be. His yards per attempt was almost eleven, while Rodgers was near ten. Boldin and Vernon Davis had receiving averages of over sixteen yards a catch. For Green Bay, Rodgers had a nine yard average per attempt while Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb put up stellar yards per catch with Nelson over 18, and Cobb over 15.

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning
I won’t list all the Broncos receivers that Manning’s eleven yards per completion had to do with their monster yards per catch. Manning’s night went from basic to unreal in a matter of just an intermission. A special night all around, and one of the freakish fantasy games of all time.

Russ Wilson
Wilson was the sole reason that the Seahawks were able to do anything offensively, as the Panthers negated the Seahawks ground game. He only had eight incompletions on thirty three attempts, and averaged a few tenths beneath ten yards a completion. One of his best games to date.

Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill will always be in the shadow of Wilson, Luck, and RG3. His play though has Miami thinking they’re in good shape to over take the Patriots sooner than later. He averaged over seven yards a completion Sunday and this was with only one completion to Mike Wallace.

Matt Stafford
Detroit has been looking for a back since Jahvid Best had issues with concussions. They have found one in Reggie Bush, who did not waste anytime running wild Sunday. His 100 yards receiving helped pad Stafford’s yards per attempt at 8.3.

Andy Dalton
AJ Green put on a show on Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings and the entire Bears secondary Sunday. Dalton continues to elevate his game based on having AJ Green on the field. The big plays will not stop with the duo, and if Mohammed Sanu can become a suitable second receiver watch for Dalton’s numbers to continue to remain strong.

Wide Receivers

Trio of Giants Receivers: All three Giants receivers reaped the dividends of a frustrating evening of playing from behind. Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Reuben Randle all had averages of over twenty yards a catch. Those numbers surely will come down. With the Giants rushing woes it won’t be surprising to see Eli gunning the football through the air on a weekly basis.

Michael Floyd
Arizona provided Larry Fitzgerald with half of the touchdowns he had all season in one game Sunday. Floyd though had the best catch of week one, with an amazing one handed grab with a cornerback draped on his back. Floyd hauled in four catches for over eighty yards for a twenty yard average.

Antonio Brown
Brown had an average of just over fourteen yards a catch against the Titans. It looks like Brown will be used to try and fill the void left of big play potential without Mike Wallace. There are a lot of concerns with the Steelers offensive line and running game, which may hinder Brown’s overall value.

Torrey Smith
By now we have seen enough from the connection of Joe Flacco and Smith to know that these two are lethal on deep plays. Smith averaged over twenty yards a catch against the Broncos. That was on just four catches but his total was just over 90 yards.

Jerome Simpson
Simpson flourished with big plays two years ago as a Bengal. His summersault flip for a touchdown still makes people hit the replay button. With Christian Ponder’s struggles it will likely be an up and down battle for Simpson and Greg Jennings to have consistent numbers. Simpson did have an average of over 20 yards a catch Sunday.

Marques Colston
Colston is sort of like a tight end that complements Jimmy Graham. He is always in the stats sheets and he makes the over the middle type of catches that you’d expect from a tight end. He had five catches for nearly 70 yards near fourteen yards a catch.

Vincent Jackson
Jackson continues to shine as a Buccaneer, as he had his way with Antonio Cromartie Sunday. If you watched the game though it appeared more damage could have been done. On paper though Jackson had an average of 22 yards a catch week one. He’ll remain a top ten to twelve fantasy receiver all season.

Fantasy Football Week One Sit Em’s

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It’s time to get at least a part of your lineup submitted if you have key players from the Broncos and Ravens. Submitting one or two player’s is the easy part. Nominating your first five to six draft picks as starters is also rather easy. The tough part comes with the borderline questionable roster positions. Maybe you’re weak at tight end and drafted two mediocre ones. The flex position could be causing you a conundrum or the typical wide receiver three position.
Those bubble players’ are going to be vital for your weekly success. Often times a stat analyzer isn’t going to do justice with those type of player’s and you’re going to have to use your visceral feelings. With the cornucopia of bubble player’s out there it is key you take the appropriate time in analyzing the favorable matchups.

Here is week one’s addition of players to sit that are on the bubble. Win with your fantasy team’s and win against the spread

Quarterbacks

Josh Freeman
I’m big on Freeman having a bounce back season, but it won’t start in week one. The Jets defense has been retooled and Rex Ryan has kept his mouth quiet. He may be answering questions the media directs at him, but his typical antics and happy-go-lucky attitude are out the window. That’s the way he used to be when he ran the Ravens defense. The Buccaneers offense was one of the worst in the preseason. Expect them to take a game or two to turn it up a notch. This will be a low scoring non-fantasy friendly game against the Jets.

Carson Palmer
Early in preseason it’s funny how people can latch onto a team, and the storm catches everyone. Arizona is going to be better than last year but they have a ways to go. People are hyping the Cardinals defense, and overlooking their divisional foe in the Rams. Arizona just lost their first round draft pick in Cooper for the season. That’ s a heavy loss to an offensive line that was putrid last season. The Cardinals are one of those teams that can shuffle the backfield with veterans and draft picks with the best of them. They’ve drafted Ryan Williams, Thomas Jones, Beanie Wells, and now Stephan Taylor and Andre Ellington. They’ve also went the old veteran route with guys like Emmitt Smith, Edgerrin James, and now Rashard Mendenhall. They just can’t figure the backfield out. St. Louis’s defense is vastly underrated and I think they cause problems for four quarters for the Cardinals. The game may be close but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Palmer start the year with two to three interceptions and maybe a lost fumble.

Cam Newton
I’m not sure where Newton’s train of thought is going into the season, but his body language in the preseason seemed not in-tune. Maybe Newton has the old Mike Vick philosophy where he relied on his pure talents early on his career. You’d think Newton would have learned after last season’s atrocious start. To his credit he did correct his woes and finished the last five to six games strong. Based on what the Panthers bring to the table offensively, I think there is just too much pressure on Newton to do it himself. They need more talent around him in the backfield and at wide receiver. Seattle is a hawking opportunistic defense. I see Newton getting frustrated early moaping with a black towel on his head on the sidelines early in this game.

Running Backs

Doug Martin
I just profiled Josh Freeman and now I’ll profile Doug Martin. A star back such as Martin is not going to have a breakout game every week. When he does though he’ll more than make up for his dud performances. That’s why he was drafted where he was. New York is going to be a solid defense once again this year. Heading to New York week one is not easy, even though the Bucs made it look so last year early in the season against the Giants. The Jets are new every where. At wide receiver, tight end, running back, and quarterback. That rings a bell to a defense that hasn’t been awful but can play much better. New attitude meets better results Sunday. The Jets defense will stymie Martin.

Ronnie Hillman
Hillman needs consecutive games of garnering proper fantasy value before he has the right to be submitted in a lineup. Ignore the fact that he is on an elite offensive team. Denver has a plethora of backs and they’ll use them all until one steps forth. I think Hillman fits the mold of Felix Jones of a few years ago. The talent is there but will never make it onto the football field consistently. If you’re not expecting ten plus points from your back then he is not worth starting. Hillman will not get that amount of points.

Isaac Redman
It was a surprise to me that the Steelers parted ways with Jonathan Dwyer. He seemed to have a few decent preseason games. Fantasy owners love to look for the sleeper by default. Redman is that back as the Steelers will have to lean on him for likely two to three games. Redman may get you some yards but the Steelers have not been a red zone running team since Jerome Bettis. I could see Redman getting around seventy to eighty yards rushing without any impact out of the backfield or with touchdowns.

Wide Receivers

Anquan Boldin
Was the money worth it to the Arizona Cardinals and now Baltimore Ravens? It appears no. Boldin has tracked a lot of mileage over the years and I’m afraid he may have peaked out during the Ravens playoff run last year. Separation was not there from defenders. It was evident that he had lost a step and was relying more on his route running and physical presence than anything. A lot of Joe Flacco’s throws had to be precise for Boldin to snare it. San Francisco to me has a little bit of an aging problem at wide receiver and running back. Boldin fit well with the Cardinals and Ravens because he had another presence on the field with him in Torrey Smith and Larry Fitzgerald. Without Michael Crabtree the 49ers have to depend on Jon Baldwin or Kyle Williams. I’m sorry but Boldin is no longer a WR1 in fantasy and will hurt fantasy owners big time that think he can cut it as a WR3 for fantasy purposes.

Hakeem Nicks
If there is any secondary that is being challenged heavily going into Sunday it is the Cowboys. Eli Manning and the rest of the NFC East have torched this secondary for years. Whether the Cowboys can stop Victor Cruz is a different question, but they’ll contain one of the Giants receivers, and that will be Nicks. You hardly ever see a receiver that had as many nagging injuries as Nicks bounce back and have a big season the following year. The regression has started for Nicks and while he may have three to four big games, he is not going to come close to the production he had two years ago. New York has held him back all preseason. Only the greats can turn it on and off when battling injuries. Nicks is a solid receiver when healthy but that doesn’t appear to be the case heading into 2013.

TY Hilton
Though I believe the Raiders have a long ways to go, I’m high on their head coach Dennis Allen and his coaching staff overall. They’ll stay in games and likely win a game or two this season that no one would think they could. Indianapolis’s TY Hilton was a big factor last year and one of Andrew Luck’s favorite targets. The Colts though want to tone down Luck’s throws and get more of a running game established weekly with Ballard and Bradshaw. That’ll be a big difference fantasy owners need to watch out for now that Bruce Arians is gone. The Colts are expected to use more two tight end packages with Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Reduction of snaps for Hilton will be expected with those formations as he is their third receiver. Teams are great at taking away a strength after seeing it multiple times. Hilton deep ball strengths are known and teams will adjust coverage on him more this season.