Automatic/Don’t Do It
Top Target to Catch Ratios From Week Five
Week Five Automatics/Don’t Do It Options
Week Five Start/Sit Options
Follow@cimini
Get in on week five action for automatics/don’t do its for your lineups. Yes it’s October. Are you already contemplating how you’re going to draft better for next season’s fantasy drafts? Let’s hope not. Here are solid options to submit as starters and who not to this week.
Automatics
Chris Rainey
The Browns running back should get a steady dose Thursday against the Bills alongside Willis McGahee. The Bills have been poor defensively on the road. Coming off a short week the Browns will look to limit mistakes as much as possible. To do that they’ll need to expand the running game more than they have in their two game win streak. Brian Hoyer has done it with his arm but they’ll tone it down and give Rainey and McGahee a fair amount of carries.
Cam Newton
Cam Newton is one of those number one quarterbacks that people have to ponder to start/sit each week. This would not be a week to do that, even though he is going against a solid defense on the road in Arizona. Remember Newton’s first game as a professional was against the Arizona Cardinals and he put on a show. Coming of renewed confidence after their week three win and a bye week, I’d expect Cam to continue to build upward and not downward.
Riley Cooper
Chip Kelly has to be shaking his head with his offensive approach being derailed by playing from behind. Last week the Eagles were just over powered by the Broncos ability offensively. For the first time since week two against the Chargers the Eagles should be able to attempt their game plan for a complete game. New York’s defense has not been able to stop anyone. DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy will get their typical numbers but this is the type of game that Riley Cooper can step up and have a fantasy impact as well. Yardage wise he can crack the eighty yards with a touchdown.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitz gets his chance as the Titans starter for the next four to six weeks. With the team playing solid defense, Fitzpatrick will likely be able to play with calmness instead of being down by several scores like he was in Buffalo. For Fitz his woes in Buffalo had to do with his turnovers not his numbers overall. There was a time not too long ago that even you thought of picking him up off of waivers as a Buffalo Bill. He’ll have better value now on an underrated Titans team, and should be a solid play each week including Sunday against Kansas City.
Terrelle Pryor
A week after sustaining a concussion the Raiders made it clear there would be no quarterback controversy in Oakland. They further demoted Matt Flynn to third string. That should alleviate Pryor from any concerns of looking behind his shoulder or playing with increased stress on the field. A late game is going to cause some mental lapses defensively. Kickoff will be at 8:30PM which is the latest kickoff in quite awhile in the NFL. Pryor has the freelance escape skills and enough of an arm to equate to a viable starter this week against Oakland.
Others: Doug Baldin, Trent Richardson, and MJD
Don’t Do Its
Joe Flacco
Flacco had the type of day last Sunday that you just don’t see from a Super Bowl MVP. With Buffalo willing to squander a game, Flacco threw yet another interception with a chance to tie or win the game before the end of regulation. Almost all of his interceptions were in the “no business” zone. Throws he doesn’t typically make, but for some reason Buffalo had him in a tizzy. Getting out of a slump that Flacco is in doesn’t happen in one game. The Ravens will need to game plan a run heavy offense and slowly bring Flacco’s confidence back. Bench him this week against Miami.
Roddy White
White deserves to be commended for trying to play through his ankle injury, but it’s clear that he is no where near 100 percent. Teams are shutting him down and the usual potent Falcons offense is stammering with hiccups throughout games. Until White can be the opposite threat that he was before his injury, the Falcons may experience more bumps in the road. Speed loss and the inability to run crisp routes is hurting White drastically. You have to sit him if you drafted wisely at the receiver position.
Ryan Mathews
A few years ago Matthews was drafted as a prime back. Tabbed by all fantasy experts as a must draftee in high rounds. The bust label soon flourished for Matthews as he could not stay on the field. San Diego has seemed to bypass the notion of Matthews being the feature back they once drafted him to be. Instead they’re running a comfortable pass happy offense that gets more with their backs in the passing game than it does on the ground. Mathews has never had great success against the Raiders, and that won’t change Sunday.
Alex Smith
Notice when Alex Smith was on the 49ers and they were winning who was praised on the 49ers; the defense. In four games as a Chief it’s the same thing; the defense. Smith is the new Jay Fiedler. A game manager who can win by doing the bare minimum. Sooner or later the defense can’t hold and a quarterback’s arm will be called into action. That week is now for Smith. Tennessee will get after him and get one pick six off of a jumped eight yard route this week.
Larry Fitzgerald
Fitz’s best years as a receiver are starting to look like a chapter that he would want to relive in a different uniform. Arizona still has the same plaguing issues surrounded to their offense. No identity for a running game and an offensive line that is questionable at best. Carson Palmer is finding that out the hard way. With defenses able to blitz and scheme to the Cardinals weaknesses it may be another long season or Fitz. He did get a few touchdowns week one but that was against the Rams poor defense. Last week the offense was held to zero points until a few gifts by rookie Mike Glennon sparked a few short drives that the Cardinals capitalized on. Those opportunities are going to diminish this week against a stout Panthers defense. Sit Fitz if you don’t want to be disappointed by a poor fantasy outing.
Others: TY Hilton, Daryl Richardson, Carson Palmer, Geno Smith, and Kenbrell Thompkins.
Week Four Automatics/Don’t Do Its
Week Four Automatics/Don’t Do Its
Follow@cimini Week four is set to begin tonight with the 49ers and Rams. Remember the Panthers and Packers are on byes this week. If you’re not inserting a 49er or Ram into your fantasy lineup that takes away four teams of potential fantasy starters. You need to rely on your role players to get wins each week. Here are some automatics and don’t do its for week four. Bye Week Teams: Carolina and Green BayAutomatics
Brian Hoyer Even though Hoyer threw three picks against the Vikings he did not let it rattle him. He’ll learn from those mistakes. This week is a huge test for Hoyer to remain a starter. Cleveland will need to mix in more run plays at home to keep the Bengals offense from seeing the field. Cincinnati’s defense is getting a lot of hype but is susceptible to the big play. They’ve faced the Steelers, Packers, and Bears and what keyed two of those wins were turnovers. Neither of those teams had the threat at tight end that the Browns do. Look for Hoyer to continue hitting Jordan Cameron which will open up one on one pass plays down the field to Josh Gordon. Stevan Ridley Ridley has been in a three week fantasy jailhouse. He’ll break through the bars this weekend in Atlanta. The last thing New England wants to do is stir up Matt Ryan and Atlanta on their home field. Matty Ice is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks on his home turf. In order to slow things down New England will depend on Ridley to sustain the ground attack. Expect this to be the first major contributing week for Ridley. Darren McFadden McFadden seems to be benefitting from having Terrelle Pryor as his quarterback. Pryor has not been declared out or available yet. Even if it ends up being Matt Flynn, McFadden is setup for one of his best matchups of the season. If Pryor plays you can easily expect McFadden to rush over 100 yards. We saw how the Redskins defense handled a running quarterback with Mike Vick. Pryor does it more and the Raiders will assuredly have a high amount of carries planned for McFadden. Vernon Davis St. Louis has had their struggles with their pass defense and may find themselves exposed tonight against San Francisco. Davis is the 49ers best option out of the backfield currently. Look for the 49ers to setup some different routes like the Saints do with Jimmy Graham to get the passing attack back in gear. St. Louis did a nice job at home against their divisional opponents last season. Not this time on a Thursday night and the 49ers off of two losses. Reggie Wayne If you’re looking for a player that ignites against a certain opponent it’s Reggie Wayne against Jacksonville. His stats over the last eight years against the Jags are mind boggling. Besides a one game hiccup in 2011, Wayne has tore apart the Jaguars for an obscene amount of yards and touchdowns. Wayne has been quiet in the stat department to start the season and is due too. Torrey Smith Geno Smith beat the Bills with big plays down the field to Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill. Since their defeat to Denver the Ravens defense has been terrific. Allowing just six points to the Browns, and nine to the Texans. With how poor Buffalo has been against the run this is going to be the same recipe repeated by Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith. Antonio Brown Once Big Ben is dialed in with a player it doesn’t stop. Brown exploded against the Bears and gets an even better secondary to tear apart Sunday. Brown should once again rank as one of the top fantasy receivers for this week. Even with travel factored in by playing a game in Europe. Others: Rod Streater, Reuben Randle, Joique Bell, and Brian HartlineDon’t Do Its
Jay Cutler Inside the division the Bears have not been a strong hold. That’s one of the reasons why they’ve had roller coaster seasons the past few years. Detroit has been one of the teams that has had Cutler’s number, especially in Detroit. A lot of that had to do with the front seven pressure constantly in his face. The offensive line has been better to start this season. But I don’t trust Jay on the road in Detroit to be a viable fantasy option. Andy Dalton The Browns defense feels they have the best defense in the division not the Bengals. They’ll get their chance to show their value at home against Dalton. I have not been overly impressed with Dalton. He has got the job done when needed but has thrown a lot of inaccurate balls to start the season. He’ll see constant pressure from Cleveland Sunday and that should lead to a poor overall day. Dalton will finish the week outside the top twenty fantasy quarterbacks. DeSean Jackson Jackson teased fantasy owners with a couple of big games to start the year. Averages are averages. Jackson has never flourished as a mega yardage receiver or touchdown reception guy. He fizzles as the season goes on for some reason or other. Look for Jackson to have a rough stretch over the next few games. Alfred Morris Call it a sophomore slump. Morris is in it and feeling the sophomore blues. Traveling to Oakland is not going to rectify Morris’s struggles. Offensively the Redskins need to figure out their identity. It appears they’re gearing to the look of having RG3 be a pocket passer and dropping back 40 plus times. The run has not setup the passing attack yet, and won’t Sunday in Oakland. Bilal Powell Powell found running lanes not an issue against the Bills, they’ll be harder to come by against the Titans. Powell is still a quality back to have based on the Jets offensive line. There will be games though where rookie quarterback Geno Smith struggles and it leads to a halt entirely for the offense. Depending on the backs you have, you should be in a decent spot to bypass Powell in favor of others this week. Donnie Avery Avery was a hot commodity amongst waiver wire pickups. Facing the Giants would seem to deem itself as a possible start for Avery. I’m never big on an offense that is not going to score much. That is what Kansas City represents. Avery will dot the fantasy spectrum on occasion, but with huge gaps of irregularity. I’d sit him this week. Terrance Williams With Miles Austin dinged up, Williams is next in line to see formidable action. I don’t think the rookie is ready to be an impact player in the Cowboys offense. Against the Giants we saw an interception down in the end zone that was clear miscommunication between Romo and Williams. Romo will be fine Sunday, but he’ll lean heavily on Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. Others: Daryl Richardson, Russ Wilson, and Larry FitzgeraldBucs Glennon Should Fare Well Starting Against AZ
Follow@cimini
Throwing in a new quarterback by going with someone that has no career experience would cause many to be worried. Ten years ago defenses would feed off of inexperienced quarterbacks. Not this day in age. Quarterbacks have seen the plethora of defensive schemes and are advanced in recognizing reads and where to go with the football.
Tampa Bay is going to test out their young quarterback Mike Glennon in favor of Josh Freeman. Freeman once stormed the league with a great season in 2010, but has fallen out of favor after repeated poor performances. Whatever Freeman’s off the field issues have been he is in need of a new situation. I believe Greg Schiano made the right move in not waiting any longer on seeing what Glennon can do.
The Buccaneers could easily be 2-1 even with last week’s loss at home to the Patriots. They let the Jets hang around enough to lose on a last second field goal. Against the Saints their defense was stout. It setup the offense with a short field on their only offensive touchdown of the game, and scored the other. Frankly, Freeman’s performance in that game should have had him on the bench.
You don’t want to lose your team this early in the season, and the Buccaneers at 0-3 are right on the cusp. They’ve signed some key veteran free agents that may value their contract dollars over their performance if things keep getting worse. Moving to Glennon bolsters the team to strive extra and see what happens. The NFC is already showing cracks in the NFC North and East divisions and the Falcons are only a game ahead of the Buccaneers.
Glennon is a big quarterback that is going to need time to unleash to his wide receivers Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. This week against the Cardinals I’d expect the Bucs to give Doug Martin his biggest load of the year. If he can establish the run I do not see Glennon having an issue completing pass plays down the field to his big play receivers. Arizona has been suspect at allotting receiving yards, especially to tight ends.
Last week the Saints abandoned the rushing game early as they could not run the ball against the Cardinals. Still, even with the Cards defense knowing that Brees was throwing the football each down they could not prevent the Saints passing attack. Brees receivers didn’t even have a big day, it was all Jimmy Graham.
Obviously, Brees and Glennon are on opposite sides of the spectrum in terms of quarterbacking. But having a home edge and a basic offensive game plan should keep the Buccaneers in this game. They’ll need to rely on their pressuring defense to create turnovers. Turnovers have been Carson Palmer’s enemy on the road. The last two years he has thrown an interception on the road every game but one.
You can easily say he had a better running game in those environments in Oakland and Cincinnati as well.
Coming into this season Glennon knew he would likely get a chance to start. The media has been on Josh Freeman and the squabbles amongst the Buccaneers staff on his capabilities. He should be ready for this moment, and this is a good spot for him to get a start before the bye week.
This team is going to come out hard to grab a win to go into the bye week. All Glennon has to do is protect the football, as Palmer will be good for at least one if not more interceptions. If the Buccaneers can get an early lead, they should be able to protect it.
Don’t be surprised to see Glennon be the latest young quarterback to win his first game as a starter.