1 Week Wonders

Week Three Wonders

Monday, 24 September, 2012

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Week three was not as eventful as the first two weeks. That can be good or bad depending on your wins and losses in your fantasy leagues. Three weeks ia good feel for how your team is. It may be time to think about trading, but do not over react to the following players solid weeks.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck-
The more and more the Colts running game suffers, the more you have to worry about Luck’s progression this season. Right now he has only faced one quality defense in the Chicago Bears. Once teams amp up the pressure on Luck and drop more men back in coverage, a huge spark in interceptions will likely occur.

Jake Locker
Locker’s time is coming in the near future, but the offensive outpour by the Titans will obviously be there high point of the year. You have to credit Locker though for how he has performed since taking over the job from Matt Hasselbeck. Some young quarterbacks fold in these situations, but Locker has done well even with Chris Johnson struggling

Running Backs

Michael Turner-
In the first half Turner was at the pace of his first two games of the season, with basic numbers. In the second half he did the most of his damage. San Diego’s defense began to realize their offense just didn’t have anything for the day. Turner is just resting on fantasy roster benches until a successive sequence of solid outings occurs.

Ryan Williams-
The Arizona Cardinals running game is likely going to be one of the worst in the league this season. Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells have been banged up thus far this year, and neither has had proper expectations with carries. Williams has already fumbled the football twice, so those expecting him to bypass Beanie Wells better think again. Another fumble and Williams carries per game may have a max.

Wide Receivers

Davone Bess-
Bess went into the season as a solid option in deeper leagues at the third receiver spot. That can’t be said anymore as Ryan Tannehill seeks him as his third or fourth option. As the season goes on maybe more chemistry will develop between the two. For now I’m going to consider his game against the Jets as a one week wonder.

Kyle Rudolph-
There is no doubting that Christian Ponder likes to target Rudolph. For a season though, Rudolph is not going to continue his pace for touchdowns. He’ll taper off and be in the range of six to eight touchdowns. He’d be a justifiable fantasy starting tight end if you could depend on better yardage numbers. Rudolph is of the old mold of fantasy tight ends, where you would just hope for a touchdown.

Damaris Johnson-
Speed is what the Eagles love to have, and they have that with former Tulsa wideout Damaris Johnson. With injury prone receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, the possibilities of Johnson having an impact for a handful of games is there. Until an injury is relevant for a period beyond two games than Johnson is classified as a one week wonder.

T. Y. Hilton-
With Austin Collie back in the fold, Hilton’s plays offensively are only going to fall back a bit more. As long as Collie can stay healthy, Hilton is going to be an option only for spread formations. With the Colts poor running game they may be in it more than most teams, but not enough to make Hilton a sleeper.

Week Two Wonders

Monday, 17 September, 2012

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Week two had that usual dramatic appeal that we all have come to love in the NFL. The great plays, hits, and fourth quarter play. Fired up coaches and players, and the comical replacement referees. There were not too many prolific individual performers that jump out on a given week, but there are still some that played way above what their season weekly average will be.

Quarterbacks

Brandon Weeden
Talk about a reversal for Weeden. He looked like he might take a full season to properly adjust to the NFL. Kind of like what use to be the trend for a rookie quarterback. All it takes is a solid running game for a rookie or veteran for that matter to be relaxed. As long as Trent Richardson is able to rush the football like he did Sunday, Weeden will feel less pressure but his issues with turnovers are not going to disappear completely. Cincinnati’s pass defense has a ways to go. Weeden will be tested all year vs. the Baltimore Ravens, Steelers, and plethora of other tough defenses.

Matt Cassel
And the winner for garbage fantasy points of the week goes to……Matt Cassel. With the Chiefs down 35-3 in the fourth quarter, Cassel came out firing like the Chiefs were down by a field goal. He hit Dwayne Bowe for two touchdowns and ended up eclipsing the three hundred yard mark. Cassel in the Chiefs look like they are in a world of hurting again, after starting the season with two straight blowout losses.

Mike Vick
Vick makes this list based on his turnover rate to start the year. For how poor the Eagles have played they have managed to squeak out two victories. If those games would have been losses, Vick’s five interceptions to start the year would have been magnified by the media. He’ll calm things down and the team will adjust as whole and rally behind Vick.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller
Miami ran wild all over the Raiders defense even with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Daniel Thomas missed the game but will remain a big part of the Dolphins backfield. Reggie Bush had twenty six carries and a field day as well. This backfield is dynamic and maybe Miami can use all three backs to keep things simplified for Tannehill and allow for growth. Miller is one of those backs you can stash for a rainy day if you have the roster spots available to do so. Other than that, his fantasy point total this week will likely be his high for the season.

CJ Spiller
It’s not that CJ Spiller won’t have great value but at the rate he is doing it is in question. He is averaging a ridiculous amount per carry, because he has broken off long gainers in both games this season. His carries have not eclipsed fifteen in either game. He is definitely the leagues new home run back but will it tail off, and how will Fred Jackson affect Spiller upon his return?

Wide Receiver

Brandon Tate
Tate reappeared after being yet another forgotten receiver that has departed New England. Andy Dalton is a capable quarterback of spreading the football around, but they are not going to dazzle the league weekly with points. You’re probably looking at a team that may average in the high teens to low twenties at best. Dalton is also not going to be in the top fifteen for touchdown throws by a quarterback. That lessens the value of a receiver especially a third such as Tate.

Mike Williams
Williams makes a repeat entry into the wonders category. He just does not perform for full four quarters as a receiver should. Maybe these two touchdowns the last two weeks will turn things around, but he just does not get enough catches to make him a fantasy starter. If he isn’t scoring touchdowns he is not worth starting. Unless he scores sixteen touchdowns that just isn’t going to happen. He has had five catches this year and two for touchdowns.

Dante Rosario
All Rosario did was infuriate all the Antonio Gates owners out there. Tennessee didn’t want to cover Rosario in the red zone thinking that he can’t catch the ball or without Gates the Chargers do not have a tight end. Obviously Rosario will not repeat a three touchdown performance. Keep an eye on Gates though as the injury history is prevalent every year.

Week One Wonders

Monday, 10 September, 2012

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Tuesday will feature the waiver wire pickups post week one. Before the dash to click the add/drop button in your league there are a few things to consider. And no, waiver wire priority order is not one of them. Pick your spots before being one of those fantasy managers that is enamored with the waiver wire every week. Here are this weeks one week wonders.

Quarterbacks

Robert Griffin III- His dazzling week one performance is going to be attached to his career for quite awhile. Credit Mike Shanahan for fantastic play calls. He called specific options or run plays for Griffin that the defense seemed unprepared for. Game tape is always a young quarterbacks worst nightmare. Griffin will keep having solid games, but one without turnovers consistently will be hard to imagine. Worthy of a waiver pickup if he is out there, but do not expect to start him for at least another month.

Mark Sanchez- The Jets went from incapable of scoring a touchdown in the preseason to lighting up the Buffalo Bills. Sanchez and the offense seemed in the flow of things, and Buffalo gave them whatever they wanted. The performance of the Jets offense is not typical of a Rex Ryan coached team and will not continue. Turnovers led to a good portion of Jets points which they were able to capitalize off of.

Kevin Kolb- Kolb came in for one drive after John Skelton went down to an apparent gruesome injury. With teammates seemingly looking affected by the injury, Kolb was unflustered. He came in and looked prepared and ready to seize command of the game. He did just that, shaken off Whisenhunt running onto the field for a timeout, and throwing the game winning touchdown. Skelton’s injury looks like a season ending, and Kolb will have the duties for the year if so. With Kolb though he is the type of quarterback that just can’t put four quarters together.

Russell Wilson- I’ll add Wilson to this list based on hype. He was favored on the road against Arizona based on his preseason performance. A condensed NFL preseason experience is not going to mean a great career or regular season. Wilson seemed bothered by pressure, falling backward in the pocket at times. It does not look like Pete Carroll will expect Wilson to do more than be a game manager for a length of time.

Running Backs

CJ Spiller- Whenever an injury occurs to a top twelve fantasy back, immediate action is to pickup the next guy. Especially one that ran wild as Spiller did with 156 yards. As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to be shaky with his arm, defenses are going to drill in on the ground game. Spiller is not a heavy work load back, which means he has to make the most out of twelve to fifteen carries.

Alfred Morris- The young back ran his heart out and demonstrated why Mike Shanahan wants to have him as their main back. He falls forward and carries defenders on his back. That’s the problem with Morris as he does not seem to have the ability to make a cut and give an extra burst. Shanahan is not afraid to use his full roster of running backs throughout the season. If RG3 is going to continue to have success he is going to need a back to average better than 3.8 yards per carry.

Wide Receivers

Kevin Ogletree- Ogletree will likely still be a solid contributor for the Cowboys, but week one will by far be his best game of the season. Tony Romo even stated he had become use to Ogletree with Witten and Austin out in training camp. He had eleven targets from Romo, which can’t be a weekly occurrence for someone that will be the teams fourth option.

Mike Williams- Williams has seemed to turn into a tier three tight end of sorts. A red zone specialist and that’s it. All other parts of the football game he just can’t be a factor. Since his rookie year in 2010, Williams has dropped off the radar considerably. A touchdown here and there is not going to cut it.

Stephen Hill- Of Mark Sanchez’s three touchdowns two went to Stephen Hill. Hill has outplayed veteran Chaz Schilens for roster depth, and appears to have developed the Plaxico Burress threat they are looking for. A big target that can haul in deep balls, Hill will be a factor in certain instances. Besides being a big play threat, Hill is going to have a tough time being a consistent every down threat. He is still learning the nuances of the game and developing at the receiver position.

Cecil Shorts- Even with Jacksonville likely to have an increased passing attack with the maturation of Gabbert, their receivers having a fantasy impact are going to be minimal. Marcedes Lewis and Justin Blackmon should be the only two Jaguar targets on your fantasy roster. Laurent Robinson has struggled since becoming a Jaguar but between him and Shorts, they’ll offset between decent fantasy noticeable games.

CLAIM OGLETREE, WAIT A SECOND

Thursday, 6 September, 2012

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Before stammering to the waiver wire to claim Kevin Ogletree do not get over zealous. Sure he produced a fantastic game and had eight catches to go with it. There are many keys to look at before deciding to go hunt through the waiver wire and believe Ogletree will help you out permanently this season.

Tony Romo sure lit a spark with his team and himself with the way he played Wednesday. Two of his three touchdown passes went to Ogletree. The touchdown category was not the only area these two hooked up in. Romo stated in the post game press conference that Ogletree and himself developed a higher chemistry than in years past this training camp.

With Miles Austin and Jason Witten dinged up, Ogletree saw an increased role and flourished. It transferred over to week one, as Romo looked for him often. Out of Romo’s twenty nine pass attempts he threw eleven targets to Kevin Ogletree, eight that were actual catches.

Romo’s twenty nine pass attempts are around what he will likely throw a game, it’s the amount of targets to Ogletree that may have peaked. With Jason Witten gutting it out on the field he was not even close to being in game shape. He willed himself to play, but his recovery is there as he had clearance from doctors. It’s just a matter of time before Witten gets back to being a main part of the Cowboys passing attack.

The Giants secondary was also down in this game with injuries. They decided to use their best corner to keep Dez Bryant in check, and for the most part they did a good job on him. The gap between their top corner and nickel cornerback is high, as Ogletree toasted the Giants with all types of routes.

Once again though, Bryant’s targets (5) and Miles Austin’s (4) will not that low when you average out their targets on the year. Ogletree can be a supreme third receiver and certainly have fantasy value. Is the value high enough to claim and put on your roster? Likely not.

It would take an injury to a Cowboys starter for that to happen. Based on Miles Austin and Dez Bryant’s history that is a possibility. In fantasy football you have to look at trends. Ogletree has worked hard to get to this point in his fourth year. It was his first touchdown and career highs across the board. Once Romo is back in sync with Austin and Witten there just will not be enough targets for Ogletree.

This was more of a chemistry from training camp and preseason carried over to the regular season. It will be short lived. Last year Ogletree had a total of seven catches in the first three games. Marginal numbers that dropped as the year went on as he finished the year with fifteen catches.

Player Profile: Robert Turbin

Tuesday, 28 August, 2012

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It’s been quite some time since a rookie running back had a true fantasy impact in year one. Last season many were expecting Mark Ingram to be just that as a New Orleans Saint. Instead the tandem system and Ingram’s ineffectiveness lessened his work load as the season progressed. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles are both more fantasy friendly than Ingram.

The rookie that stirred a frenzy off the waiver wire last season was DeMarco Murray. He burst onto the scene because of opportunity and now is a top tier fantasy back. It all opened up for Murray because of injuries in front of him, and the fact the Cowboys had let Marion Barber and Tashard Choice go.

Who will it be this year that surprises? It may not be for a significant amount of games like Murray, but Seattle’s rookie Robert Turbin is already on many fantasy radar watch lists after his preseason. With the Seahawks letting workmanlike beast Marshawn Lynch rest in the preseason, Turbin has received the majority of carries and looked impressive.

The fourth round pick out of Utah State might be the most physically imposing running back in the NFL already. His physique particularly in his arms are comparable to former Arizona Cardinal/Tampa Bay running back Michael Pittman. Statistically Turbin has been solid from game one in the preseason, and last week against Kansas City he had over 90 yards rushing.

Pete Carroll sort of shares the same values as Mike Shanahan. If you’re producing he is not afraid to make a move. No matter the salary of the player that is supposed to have that position. It creates a continual reevaluation of roster positions even during the season.

Drafting in your fantasy leagues, Robert Turbin was already an automatic handcuff for Marshawn Lynch. A year ago Lynch received the majority of carries as the Seahawks did not have a back behind him capable of handling duties. That will change with Turbin, who should get five to seven carries a game to spell Lynch.

This could boost Lynch’s fantasy impact. He will be fresher over the course of the season and not overworked as he was a year ago.

Lynch has missed preseason action with a back injury that Seattle has said is minor. In fact Lynch has practiced in the majority of Seahawks practices. An area everyone knows Lynch is on a short leash is his off the field issues. It was one of the main reasons why Buffalo decided to let him go, and he has already had a few issues as a Seahawk. One more offense and a suspension or upper management move could come.

The style that Lynch runs with is not one of longevity for a running back. If Turbin was not handcuffed by Marshawn Lynch owners and you have roster spots to tinker with, pick up Turbin and sit him on your bench.

Bench players do not necessarily always have to be integral weekly parts of your fantasy team. If you are overloaded it just makes decisions harder on Sundays when you’re trying to fulfill your starters. Bench points you see can be frustrating and cause you a loss from the wrong insertion. So it’s always good to have a player or two with upside that won’t cause you headaches weekly.

New Wave of QBS, That Will Carry Fantasy Teams

Monday, 20 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The new wave of quarterbacks is as rapid as ever. Notjustagame breaks down the top ten quarterbacks that are either in their rookie season or upcoming second season. From a fantasy standpoint these are the quarterbacks of the future for your keeper dynasty leagues. Of this crop of quarterbacks who will end up being the Cade McNown, Akili Smith’s, or Tim Couch’s?

Just like in the NFL, fantasy football is a win now mentality. Here is who will reign in their class of quarterbacks in 2012.

 

1. Cam Newton- Newton is a top fantasy quarterback let alone in a class of first and second year quarterbacks. Questions regarding his pocket presence and ability to read pro defenses were squashed quickly last year. Let downs do not happen after a year like Newton had last year. He should only improve and get better.

2. Andrew Luck- The hype of Luck being the best quarterback to come out since John Elway is going to surpass Tim Tebow’s daily ten minute media segment. I’ll take that. Luck is actually performing well to garner proper attention.

3. Andy Dalton- Dalton has one of the top young playmaking receivers in the league in AJ Green, and a solid tight end in Jermaine Gresham. He is not going to light it up every week, but Dalton has quarterback smarts. He won’t kill you repeatedly with turnovers and makes just enough plays to have solid fantasy value. For this year he sits in the top three, but there are rookies from this class that will likely pass him soon.

4. Robert Griffin III- RG3 is going to get the love of the NFC East division this year. The NY Giants, Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles have solid defenses with well known pass rushers. Welcome to the NFL.

5. Blaine Gabbert- Before the preseason, you probably would not of found many fantasy football leagues were Gabbert even was drafted. The stock meter on Gabbert has changed to the watch list. Deservedly so as he looks like a transformed quarterback. Keeper league value and fantasy backup value are suddenly tied with Gabbert’s name.

6. Brandon Weeden- Weeden comes in being drafted by the Browns with expectations of starting from day one. That’s true support from a franchise that could of signed a free agent veteran instead. Weeden is a big quarterback that should play more like his age instead of his amount of time in the NFL.

7. Jake Locker- Like a pitcher in the MLB or an NBA D-League call up that gets an opportunity, good things tend to happen with an opportunity suddenly. Last year Locker had semi success filling in for an injured Hasselbeck. With the pitchers and D-league call ups, the rise usually comes down fairly quickly once teams can scout and realize your weaknesses. Locker is going to experience that this season and will struggle like a rookie in his second season.

8. Christian Ponder- Ponder sure hopes that AP will not be rushed back and is healthy. If not Ponder not only will have one of the bottom ten receiver sets but also one of the worst backfields. Not a combination you want to have as a second year quarterback. The elusiveness he showcased last year will change rather quickly if he starts taking a beating.

9. Ryan Tannehill- He has the familiarity with the offensive system but Tannehill is going to struggle the most of anyone. His fantasy value is about as high as Kevin Kolb right now.

10. Russell Wilson- One thing about head coach Pete Carrol, he is not afraid to make changes. With the way Russell has performed this situation could turn very similar to the Arizona Cardinals. Though Seattle paid a hefty price for Flynn, Wilson could find his way onto the field sooner than later.