Week One Wonders

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The waiver wire is going to be flooded like it typically is after week one. Should you over bid for certain player’s or should you let the feasting to be desired by the rest of the league? Here are some players that I believe were week one wonders.

Geno Smith
With all the New Yorkers out there I’ll go ahead and keep it simple for you. Geno Smith delivered a drive before half from near the fifty yard line, and then another twenty five yard drive that setup their game winning field goal. Besides that Smith was sporadic and ran a simplified offense. At the end of the day it’s hard to see how he accumulated over 250 yards passing.

Russ Wilson
The day I see Russ Wilson as my opponent’s fantasy starting quarterback, I’ll know instantly I have one position won. Wilson has the Tim Tebow flare because he plays his best late in games and in fourth quarters. He has quarterbacking skills but I believe they’re vastly overrated from where they should be. He may get to that level but lets cool his rankings a bit. 300 yard passing games are not going to be the norm from Wilson.

Rashard Mendenhall
People do not always just look for the yardage and fantasy numbers from a player to consider him a worthy waiver wire pickup. Mendenhall had sixteen carries Sunday, and that looks fantastic for owners looking for quality backs. The problem was that Mendenhall only averaged 3.8 yards a carry. His best days are long behind him. It will only be a matter of time before the Cardinals platoon a higher ratio of carries in a crowded backfield.

Jackie Battle
Tennessee is a team that is not goin to light up the scoreboard offensively. That has always made the Titans a one man fantasy backfield. Lendale White had a bit of success but that was years ago with a better all around offense. If Fitzpatrick becomes the Titans quarterback than Battle may be worth looking at. For now ignore his touchdown Sunday, even though he is the goal line back of the Titans.

Brian Hartline
Hartline is included in the waiver wire column this week as well. His outbreak this week might end up being his best output of the season. Ryan Tannehill is obviously most comfortable with his only receiver that sees the field that was on last year’s team. It’ll take some time for Tannehill to develop the same chemistry with Gibson and Wallace. Once it happens Hartline will likely just be a depth filler.

Doug Baldwin
The Seahawks have not had a 1,000 yard receiver since Bobby Engram in 2007. Baldwin has flirted with fantasy rosters in the past. Owners hopefully learned last year that he is not fantasy roster material. His 90 yards week one will surely be his high of the year. If he surpasses 600 yards receiving it’ll be a big surprise. Baldwin’s biggest contribution for the Seahawks is on special teams.

Marlon Brown
I profiled the Ravens dilemma at receiver a bit in the waiver wire article post week one. Brown is figured to be the next guy in line to fill in for Jacoby Jones over the next month. He’ll be used intermittently but I believe the Ravens are going to lean more in the veteran directions of Brandon Stokely and Dallas Clark.

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Preseason can be one of the harsh gray areas for fantasy football participants to over predict. Just because someone has a stellar preseason does not mean it will carry over into the regular season. Actual sleepers tend to come during the season and are because of injury. With Rob Gronkowski’s rehabilitation dragging into the season, many are quick to wrap their sights and take Sudfeld as a sleeper now.

Before you pull that trigger on Sudfeld lets calm the storm before you get tossed into it. It’s evident that Sudfeld would step into a significant role with New England. As Tom Brady has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league at diagnosing mismatches with his tight ends. The skill set that Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez had over Sudfeld is obvious. They were more athletic and possessed the speed to whirl by their opposing defenders. Seam routes were fantasy havens for owners of Gronk and Hernandez especially when it came down to red zone opportunities.

Defensively teams had to pick their poison on who was at-risk in one on one coverage especially when both Gronkowski and Hernandez were on the field at the same time. Their ascent to the rise of tight ends in the NFL was largely due to their complementary abilities of each other, and the fact that they were deemed elite tight ends coming out of college.

Before Brady had the duo of Hernandez and Gronk, Brady never had even close to the success statistically over the first nine years of his career. In the pre-Gronk and pre-Hernandez era Brady had unreliable fantasy tight end targets. Remember the names of Kyle Brady, Ben Watson, and Christian Fauria? I’d guess maybe ten percent of you had Ben Watson as your fantasy tight end during those bottom tier years of tight end significancy out of New England.
Watson’s top year receiving yards wise was 643 yards and he also topped out another year with six touchdowns. Christian Fauria and Kyle Brady were did not even touch the blips of waiver wire consideration.

My point with New England is they’ll likely figure out a shuffle of guys not just Sudfeld to make due for however long Gronkowski is out. The Patriots will not let it be known just yet what the time table for Gronkowski return is. More than likely the team will keep him out as long as possible to ensure proper prevention is met this time, as he has been unstable with injuries over the past year.

Sudfeld sure had an great performance in the first game of the preseason. Teams have no true game plans going in and sure as heck did not have Sudfeld in mind for assignment attention. Regular season will be a different story. If he is going to see twenty plus plays on the field, the opposing defenses will be ready for him. He is a big target at 6’7 with soft hands but does not possess the physical or speed attributes that New England had with Gronk and Hernandez.

Sudfeld’s three touchdowns in the preseason are bound to cause some fantasy football owners to reach out for Sudfeld as a *sleeper*. Others can buy low on Sudfeld as I do believe his three touchdowns in two weeks of the preseason are an aberration. Come the regular season I’ll be shocked if he reaches that touchdown total for the entire season.

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The old adage of learning from the sidelines in the NFL has been displaced over the last five to ten years. Teams never wasted time with their high draft picks in other positions to learn on the sideline, so why did they do it for years with quarterbacks? There was a time and age when salaries were not in as high of demand and coaches could dictate a relative time span to insert a quarterback. The goal would be to progress enough with a veteran while the young quarterback learns his role and offense properly.

Advancement in college offenses has enabled quarterbacks to come in with playbook smarts to adapt to the game quickly. Sure coaches may have to tailor their game plan a bit more to five to ten secure safety net plays, but that’s expected. You do not want to overwhelm your rookie quarterback off the bat. The more and more success rookies have (Roethlisberger, Newton, Dalton, and last year’s crop) gives future draftees a little less worry.

I expect the Bills to give EJ Manuel his keys to the offense and let him start week one against New England. Many know the Bills new head coach, Doug Marrone, as the ex-Syracuse coach, before Syracuse though he had many years helping as an offensive coordinator with the Saints and other NFL teams. He has an NFL background and will have the Bills prepared to surprise some people.

At Syracuse the offense is what made Ryan Nassib a high valuable quarterback in last year’s draft. He matured as a four year player at Syracuse, but the offense Marrone and his Syracuse staff tailored for him made Syracuse all that much better. They also had a solid ground game that busted open defenses time after time. Jerome Smith and Prince Tyson-Gulley were the two backs that ran the system to perfection last year. Marrone will aim for the same success and likely get it with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.

A two back system as quality as the Bills have partnered with their boosted defense should dramatically lessen the burden on EJ Manuel. The offense will be predicated on simple throws from Manuel when needed. He also has the scrambling ability necessary to extend drives.
This Bills team for all the damage of turnovers they had with Ryan Fitzpatrick, still managed to perform decently and hang in games. Their defense should be even stronger this year and they will be able to steal a few surprise games.

Week one at New England may be one of those games.

Flashback to a year ago in the NFL and take a look at who won on the road in New England’s first home game of the season. That was the Arizona Cardinals, led by…….Kevin Kolb. Kolb went on to have a horrific rest of the season that all but ended his ties as an Arizona Cardinal. The key point is that you never have to have an All-Pro quarterback to win games in the NFL. Heck, the Cardinals did not even have a solid ground game.

The Bills have much to offer Manuel as a team, and he’ll grow with that nucleus of players the Bills have. I expect Manuel’s role to be a bit less but comparable to how the Vikings use Christian Ponder. Select throws and enough rollouts and scrambles to keep his mind free during the games. The Bills will let their backfield and defense decide the games for them in year one of EJ Manuel’s career as a Bill.

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Quarterbacks

Russ Wilson
Wilson has now thrown for over 200 yards in three of his last four games, after not being able to do it the first four games. He just isn’t ready to be a quarterback of fantasy relevancy. He has a total of ten touchdowns compared to eight interceptions. If he is not producing double digit touchdowns he is surely going to offset his numbers with interceptions.

Blaine Gabbert
Gabbert and the Jaguars have played two solid games in a row. One against the Raiders Gabbert could not finish due to injury or they may have won at Oakland by double digits. Gabbert may be one of those old fashioned young quarterbacks that needs a year or two under center before true growth happens. He has had flashes and this game is another. Wait for a string of quality games before picking Gabbert up.

Running Backs

Donald Brown

Brown’s return from injury did not mean he would get the near full load of carries like he did prior. Indianapolis spread the carries out just about even with Vick Ballard and Brown. Brown has shown he can not handle a majority of the load. Maybe this will boost his yards per carry and effectiveness in a Felix Jones type of way.

Ronnie Brown
Some games defenses are just able to master a plan against an opposing quarterback. That’s exactly what the Browns did Sunday against Philip Rivers. Rivers is the type of quarterback that likes to take risks anyways, but must have had the Broncos game still in the back of his head. Instead of gunning the football in tight spots he settle for check down throws to Ronnie Brown. Fifteen fantasy points for Ronnie Brown as a pass catching running back will not happen again this season.

Wide Receivers

Cecil Shorts

It’s clear that Shorts has developed into the Jaguars number one receiver, but for how long? As the season stretches past the mid point you have to believe Justin Blackmon will come on eventually. Give Shorts credit though as he fought his way up the roster past Laurent Robinson and has been fairly consistent even when Gabbert was struggling.

Jason Witten
During Tony Romo’s interception fest first half, someone telephoned down to him to stop throwing the ball so much to Dez Bryant when you have sure handed Jason Witten. Romo may have got the advice late but he made sure Jason Witten had about four games worth of catches. Eighteen catches is unheard of from even a wide receiver. Witten has fought off a few injuries this season and likely will re-shift to the first option for Romo to safeguard his throws. But 18 catches is definitely a one week wonder stat.

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Week five was a rather calm one in terms of fantasy football production. The bye weeks likely played a factor in that. Here are the wonders from this weeks games.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck-

Luck’s had a terrific game against Green Bay to lead the Colts back in a riveting win. After a sub-par first half the Colts offense launched thanks to Luck’s ability to continually hit Reggie Wayne. Momentum was just on the side of the Colts in the second half. Luck’s upside is obvious, but the rookie will be hurt in certain games due to the Colts lack of a running game.

Alex Smith-
Buffalo kept things close for almost two quarters on the scoreboard. What happened in the second half could be seen coming, as the 49ers were gaining huge chunks of yards on the Bills every way possible. A turnover right before the half by the Bills got things rolling for the 49ers. Smith has shown he can be a fantasy backup quarterback but three touchdowns through the air from him is definitely not going to happen weekly.

Running Backs

Ahmad Bradshaw-
Bradshaw ran with aggression and ease after fumbling early in the ball game. Lanes began opening up for Bradshaw after Eli Manning threw all over the Browns dinged up secondary in the first and second quarters. As they began to play the pass more, Bradshaw’s involvement in the running game spiked. Credit Bradshaw for bouncing back after a tough game a week ago.

Wide Receivers

Josh Gordon-
Gordon is the epitome of a one week wonder. Cleveland had a big play early in the game to Gordon, as he ran past a linebacker with no safety help. Weeden is improving but he has not found a consistent target yet at receiver. Greg Little was held without a catch. Gordon’s two catches for two touchdowns should not be looked at as a waiver wire addition.

Rueben Randle-
Cleveland’s secondary seemingly wanted Randle to be the one that beat them, not Victor Cruz. One plan worked, but Cruz had a field day himself with wide open touchdown catches. Randle saw action because of Nicks and Barden out, and showed he can fulfill spot duty action. He did have a few drops though that would have been highlighted more if the Giants were in a closer game.

Santana Moss
Moss’s glory days appear to be long gone. The change over has occurred in Washington with an infusion of young talent. Moss is a veteran presence right now to mentor and be a team leader. He still has his speed but is never going to be the same big play threat he use to be years ago.

Kendall Wright
Tennessee’s woes with Chris Johnson are well known, and that is causing them to have to be a team they know they can’t be. By having to throw the football more than they want, it’s resulting in more turnovers for Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker. Tennessee has solid receivers in Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, and rookie Kendall Wright. For now though Wright is going to have to wait his turn amongst the veterans and tight end Jared Cook. His PPR points of nine Sunday will likely be a season high.

Robert Meachem
Meachem came up big against his former team with two touchdowns. For the rest of the game though he only had one other catch. Just like in New Orleans, Meachem is one of those receivers that’s an all or nothing type for fantasy football. If he isn’t catching touchdowns he brings little value as his catches are not high enough for owners in PPR leagues.

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Quarterbacks drafted in round one finally broke out to high performing standards, and quelled the rest of fantasy drafters that still ignore the value of a fantasy quarterback. Here is the post week four listing and analysis on weekly wonders. Three were actually profiled as fantasy under the radar starters this week that outperformed mild expectations with scorching results.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill-

What a game from the rookie Tannehill. This will boost his confidence for the remainder of the season. Errors did come happen though on a few occasions, including a costly interception in overtime. Overall you’d have to give Tannehill an A though. Arizona came in winning seven in a row at home, and Miami established a 13-0 lead. After taking a sack on second and goal that pushed Miami back to the twenty. Tannehill still tried for the endzone, hitting Hartline to the Cardinal one. Miami’s ground game was effective but Tannehill was the one that established the offense. This won’t be a typical game from him, but his upside is bright towards the second half of this season.

Peyton Manning

Manning had a near flawless game that would be even hard for the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees to have right now. The effect from a year off of football and recovery from neck surgery has not entered the part of the season you’d expect a decline to happen. Once it’s midseason and beyond will be the tough question for Manning’s body to answer. At age 36, can he complete a full season at a high rate, attempting thirty eight throws?

Running Backs

Michael Turner-

I listed Turner as a start this weekend but expected more carries than thirteen. The fact that he had a big game may lead to the Falcons re-establishing Turner and the run game. With how well Matt Ryan and the passing game is going Turner’s carries per game are going to be a huge question mark. It’s his first quality fantasy game of the year that also featured a pass catching touchdown for Turner.

Brandon Bolden-

Bolden is going to be a consensus hot waiver wire pickup this week. His hundred yard game and the fact that he is on New England are all good reasons to think so. You just never know on a given week if Danny Woodhead is going to get some carries, or if the Patriots are going to even run the ball consistently. Against Buffalo they ran the ball forty times. A lot of those carries came during the fourth quarter explosion of 31 points off of mental miscues and interceptions by Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Wide Receivers

Anquan Boldin-

Boldin’s individual tenacity and leadership are now higher skill sets for him than on the field talent. Baltimore can depend on the veteran for intermediate catches, and using his physical skill set to separate from defenders. Though Baltimore is throwing the football more he should still finish around the same numbers he has the past two seasons. Even against Cleveland a lot of his catches were due to the fact that Joe Flacco was delivering the football with precise accuracy, not because Boldin was getting proper separation.

Brian Hartline-

Hartline was another fantasy start listed in week three starters. His game was an obvious career day and a new record for the Miami Dolphins. If anyone anticipated Ryan Tannehill throwing for over 450 yards at any point this season kudos to you. I did expect Hartline to have a good game though due to Miami’s offensive line holding up against the Cardinals pass rush. Hartline exposed William Gay almost every drop back Miami had.

James Jones-

The Packers passing attack showed its first Packer like performance Sunday. Jones will have a higher role as Greg Jennings sits out to heal a re-injured groin. Jones prior role a few years ago was as a deep threat, but that has now been filled by Jordy Nelson and even Randall Cobb. Jones is now the intermediate threat Donald Driver filled for many years. Jermichael Finley is still getting back into the flow of things after missing last year with injury. Once his production gets back to where everyone expects him to be, I believe Jones value takes a huge hit.