By Steve Nitz

The other day, I went over some players who have been big surpises so far this season. Today I’m doing the opposite, giving you players who were drafted high, yet have been complete dissapointments. I don’t have the time to list every one, but here are ten of them.

Grady Sizemore-Sizemore was a top 10 pick in drafts, even a top five in a lot of them. But he’s had an injury-plagued season and is currently hitting .238. I expect him to bounce back in the second half though.

Garrett Atkins-Atkins has averaged 25 homers and over 100 RBIs the last three seasons. This season he’s hitting .229 with six homers and 28 RBIs.

Alfonso Soriano-Soriano has a .279 career average, yet he’s hitting .234 this year. His power is down too.

Jimmy Rollins-It’s hard to believe this guy won the NL MVP just two seasons ago. His numbers are a far cry from 2007.

Manny Ramirez-He’s been good when he’s in the lineup and should have a great second half, but his suspension hurt his owners the first half.

Josh Hamilton-He’s been on the DL and is only hitting .243 when he’s in the lineup. Will he bounce back in the second half or was last season a fluke?

Brandon Webb-Webb was one of the first pitchers taken on draft day, yet he’s only made one start all year due to a shoulder injury.

Cole Hamels-Unlike Webb, Hamels has been pitching, he just hasn’t been very good. Last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP only has five wins and a 4.87 ERA. It wouldn’t surpise me to see him bounce back in the second half though.

Russell Martin-It’s hard to believe this guy went from hitting .293 with 19 homers, 87 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases in 2007 to .258 with only two homers and 27 RBIs so far this year. He won’t be one of the first catchers taken next year, that’s for sure.

Chris Young (Arizona)-Young is just one dissapointment on a team full of them. All of his numbers are way down, and he’s below the mendoza line at .196.

The first half 2009 brought surprises in all shapes and sizes.

There was Raul Ibanez’s resurgence and Milton Bradley’s regression. But among teams, almost nothing caught more people off guard than Seattle remaining in contention at the All-Star Break.

There have been no surprises from nine-time All-Star Ichiro. Since arriving in American in 2001, Ichiro has been the epitome of consistency. He has hit at least .300 with at least 200 hits, 30 steals and 20 doubles in all eight of his seasons. He is in no danger of breaking any of those streaks this season.

With a team that stunning, production must be coming from more unexpected areas than Ichiro and the Mariners have their fair share.

Center fielder Franklin Gutierrez, first baseman Russell Branyan and closer David Aardsma find themselves key pieces of their team for the first time ever.

Branyan, a journeyman with 210 minor league home runs, hit the All-Star Break just two home runs behind Carlos Pena for the top AL spot. Aardsma’s 20 first half saves rank fifth in the league and Gutierrez has been one of the most productive players in the last month.

In most leagues Gutierrez is still available on the waiver wire, but Branyan and Aardsma are widely owned. But which of the three big Seattle surprises will keep producing in the second half?

In 12 seasons, Branyan has only played something approximating a full year twice, and he hasn’t played in more than 95 games since 2002. It’s a small sample size, but in 2001 and 2002 his All-Star Break splits were close to even. But, curiously, his BABIP went up in the second half of both seasons. Since he already has a BABIP of .335 this year, that trend seems unlikely to continue.

Branyan’s power is for real, but that .279 average is not. Add in his unnaturally high home run/fly ball percentage of 22.8 and there’s a recipe for a drop-off.

After being acquired as a part of the three-way deal that sent J.J. Putz to New York, Gutierrez started slowly. He has since started hitting the ball much better, improving his batting average each month. It’s difficult to tell how much of that improvement has been based on luck and how much better Gutierrez is actually hitting the ball.

His BABIP has also increased each month, reaching the astronomical level of .425 in July. He doesn’t help much with steals or home runs and doesn’t walk often. If he’s to be a productive fantasy player he has to keep his average up, something that is possible, but was never seen in his
four years in Cleveland.

Gutierrez will continue to play every day because of his superb defense, and that peace of mind seems to have helped him swing the bat more consistently. But if you’re a prospective owner, a close watch is advised.
By Ted Cahill

Of the three surprises, Aardsma is the safest long-term bet. He has taken advantage of the opportunity to close after Brandon Morrow proved ineffective in the role. In 11 innings during June, Aardsma did not allow a run, while striking out 20 batters. He held opponents to a .139 average and only walked four hitters. He seems to be finally showing the talent that led San Francisco to make him their first round pick in 2003.

Aardsma won’t be easy to snare in a trade and if you own him, hold on for the second half. The only concern with his continued success is that he will set a new career high for innings around the middle of August. If he can withstand the increased work load, Aardsma should continue to produce for fantasy owners and the Mariners.

By Chris Burrows

The Phillies announced Wednesday that 3 time Cy Young Award winner and crestfallen Met Pedro Martinez would make his return (following a stint on the DL to kick things off) to the Major Leagues as a part of their starting rotation. Is the embattled RHP ready for a return to fantasy rosters?

His career digits are staggering: a strikeout to walk ratio of 3,117 to 701 which makes him one of a select few to have over 3,000 K’s and under 1,000 walks, 214 career wins, and a minuscule career ERA of 2.51. But the 8 time All-Star went unsigned to kick-off 2009 when his contract with the Mets ran out—and for good reason.

Martinez missed most of the 2007 season on the DL but finished surprisingly strong—he had 5 starts with 28 IP and went 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA—and followed up that performance with a short season in 2008 spent mostly on the DL. What he didn’t spend on the DL he probably should have. He took home his first losing season of 5-6 that year and an ERA over 5 for the first time in his career.

With Favre-like commitment, however, Martinez made his impression with scouts as the a starter for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic—he managed to make quick work of six scoreless innings and even struck out six. Scouts from Philadelphia had Martinez pitch in two games against the Phillies Dominican Summer League Team, brought him to Philly for a physical, and settled on a $1 million contract for the rest of the 2009 season.

But already Martinez is on the DL—no change there. The reports of his debut coming as early as July 30th are reportedly overly-optimistic—a shoulder strain in the throwing arm is no small grievance. We can’t even be sure if that’s what the problem is since the details surrounding the physical are very vague and a start in the minors will have to happen as well.

His work for the Dominican national team doesn’t provide much clue as to his current status since his team played only two games and lost its bid in the first round of play, but Martinez was as successful as he could have been with his hurls hitting their spots again. He issued no walks in either game.

At the end of his run in New York there was much concern over Martinez’s loss of control and diminishing velocity that was most evident in his inflated ERA. It’s clear that he’s past his prime—especially considering he’s 37 years old—but he’s a name to fear on the mound that refuses to give batters that inside corner. It’s all conjecture at this point—all we really have to go off of was what he did last in 2008 which isn’t much at all. It’s possible that his 2008 return from surgery came too soon and the legendary thrower didn’t have the chance to properly heal. We won’t know until he (ever) takes the mound in Philly.

He may have been the cheapest 3-time Cy Young winner on the market but if he’s back in shape soon and can be found at the right price Pedro Martinez might be a fortuitous contributor to a fantasy roster. In the words of Martinez himself, “I might surprise you.”

By Steve Nitz

With baseball at the unofficial halfway point of the season, there are a number of players who weren’t expected to do a whole lot rewarding fantasy owners with their performances.

Players such as Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, and Ricky Romero have come out of nowhere to have great seasons, rewarding players who either drafted them or picked them up off the scrap heap. Here are ten of fantasy baseball’s first half surprises.

Russell Branyan (Mariners)-“Russell the Muscle” has always been known for his power, but he has a .236 career batting average. However, this season he has hit 21 homers and is still keeping a good average at .280 to go along with 49 RBIs.

Ricky Romero (Blue Jays)-After starting the season in the starting rotation and missing some time due to injury, Romero has been great since coming off the DL. He’s put up seven victories, a great ERA (3.00), solid WHIP (1.26) and 69 strikeouts in 76 innings this season.

David Aardsma (Mariners)-A first round pick by the Giants out of Rice in 2003, Aardsma has always had great stuff, but has been with five different teams in his five years in the majors. This year, Aardsma has finally put it all together in Seattle. After taking over Brandon Morrow’s closer spot earlier this year, Aardsma has 20 saves and 51 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings. His numbers would be even better if not for an outing on July 8 against Baltimore when he gave up three earned runs without recording an out.

Jason Bartlett (Rays)-Coming into the season, Bartlett had never hit more than five home runs in a season. He already has eight this year, even while missing almost two months with an ankle injury. He has a great average at .347 to go with his 19 stolen bases and 39 RBIs.

Ben Zobrist (Rays)-If I would have told you that Zobrist would be second in the AL in OPS heading into the All-Star break, you would think I was crazy. But believe it or not, that’s the case. Zobrist currently has 17 homers and 52 RBIs to go along with a .297 average and 11 stolen bases.

Ryan Franklin (Cardinals)-Franklin has been nearly unhittable since replacing Jason Motte as the Cardinals closer in early April. As of July 10, Franklin has the exact same ERA and WHIP at 0.79 to go along with 21 saves.

Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)-The American League’s starting second baseman in the All-Star Game, Hill currently has career-highs in average (.292) and homers (20) and is on pace to surpass his career-high 78 RBIs.

Andrew Bailey (A’s)-1.92 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 60 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings, and an All-Star as Oakland’s closer. Not bad for someone who made his major league debut this season.

Edwin Jackson (Tigers)-Jackson always had the talent, this year he’s finally put it together in his first season in Detroit. Seven wins, a 2.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 97 strikeouts have made him one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Kevin Millwood (Rangers)-Millwood has been complete trash ever since he signed with Texas following the 2005 season, when he led the American League in ERA with Cleveland. But this year has been different. Millwood is currently 8-7 with a 3.46 ERA and 79 strikeouts.

By Ted Cahill

With the All-Star Break arriving this week, fantasy owners can take a break from the daily roster updates and moves to get ready for the stretch run and look back at what’s worked so far.

If you were one of the owners that snatched Zack Greinke or Tim Lincecum in your draft, things are probably looking pretty good. If you put your pitching staff in the hands of Edinson Volquez or Cole Hamels, you might be wondering just went wrong.

But either way, there’s still time to improve and climb up those standings. Here we’ll hand out some first-half accolades.

Best AL Starter: Greinke, Royals
He was unhittable for the first month of the season. We all knew an ERA of 0.50 wasn’t going to last, and he has hit rough patches as the season wore on, but he’s dominant. Maybe someday the Royals will find an offense and he can actually win a pitching Triple Crown.
Runner up: Roy Hallday, Blue Jays

Best NL Starter: Tim Lincecum, Giants
This kid is phenomenal. Leads the league in strikeouts and has 10 wins. While Dan Haren has been great for Arizona, I’ll take Lincecum. Really with any of the four best you can’t go wrong.
Runner up: Haren, Diamondbacks

Best AL Reliever: Joe Nathan, Twins
Nathan just keeps rolling along as an All-Star. All the evidence I need came from the right-hander striking out Albert Pujols, who represented the tying run, and first base open. His 0.73 WHIP doesn’t hurt the cause either.
Runner up: Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Best NL Reliever: Francisco Rodriguez, Mets
This offseason move worked to perfection. K-Rod has 23 saves and a 1.90 ERA. He leads the league in saves and games finished, just what you need out of a closer.
Runner up: Heath Bell, Padres

AL Surprise (in a good way): Edwin Jackson, Tigers
Detroit pulled a fast one this winter, acquiring Jackson from the Rays. He’s become part of one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, teaming with Justin Verlander. That 2.52 ERA and league-leading 1.06 WHIP make Jackson the real deal.
Runner up: Ricky Romero, Blue Jays

NL Surprise (in a good way): Randy Wells, Cubs
He came out of nowhere and has really picked up the slack for a depleted rotation. He’s made 12 starts and has a 2.72 ERA to go along with 54 strikeouts. During a four-game winning streak, Wells walked just four hitters in 26 2/3 innings pitched.
Runner up: Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

AL Surprise (in a bad way): Fausto Carmona, Indians
He finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting just two years ago. This year he went all the way back to Rookie League and is still trying to work himself back to Cleveland. He was replaced by Tomo Ohka, who hadn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2006.
Runner up: Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees

NL Surprise (in a bad way): Brad Lidge, Phillies
He was perfect last year, now nothing is certain when he takes the mound. He is trying to pitch through pain, but a 7.03 ERA isn’t what the Phillies or fantasy owners had in mind for 2009.
Runner up: Oliver Perez, Mets

Slick Rick:
A couple poor starts in a row led to many fantasy owners becoming skittish about the 20-year old. Porcello hasn’t gotten out of the sixth inning in his last four starts and six of his last seven.

Porcello has great talent, which he displayed in his first nine big league starts, going 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA. The trouble is that he isn’t devastating yet. His sinker is a good pitch, but he lacks a second plus pitch to put big leaguers away.

Since the calendar flipped to June this has become more apparent. Porcello is just 2-3 with a 5.09 ERA. More troubling he has 15 strikeouts to 15 walks in 35 1/3 innings and opponents are hitting .345 against the right-hander.

They’re also teeing off on him. Porcello has allowed at least one home run in five of his last seven starts and teams are slugging .531 off him.

He’s a young pitcher with a bright future, but putting him on your fantasy team in the second half may have more risk than reward. He’s already faced Minnesota and Kansas City twice, two teams that he will likely see again down the stretch. And having already racked up 87 innings, Jim Leyland may run him out a bit less often.

By Ted Cahill

Cole Hamels is not the same pitcher that led Philadelphia to their second World Series championship last season.

There are various reasons why the left-hander has regressed (overwork last year, increased pressure), but they’re not nearly as interesting as his home-road splits this year.

Overall, the Phillies’ ace is 4-5 with a 4.98 ERA and 77 strikeouts. He’s also thrown 85 innings this year, putting him on pace to finish below his 2007 total of 183 1/3, not to mention last year’s astronomical numbers, when you include the postseason.

But pitching in Citizens Bank Park, Hamels is actually pitching better then when he gets away from the bandbox. In eight home starts, opponents are hitting .276 and the left-hander has struck out 53 in 46 2/3 innings. He has a 2-2 record with a 3.86 ERA.

On the road, it’s a different story. The 25-year old has a 6.34 ERA and opponents are hitting .352 off him. Even their slugging numbers are up significantly, from .448 to .537. He does have a shutout on the road, and when that masterpiece against the Dodgers is taken away, the numbers just get awful.

Hamels is far from the normal Phillies pitcher. The team’s splits are more what you would expect from a team with a losing record at home. On the road the staff’s ERA drops from 5.03 to 4.41 and their WHIP falls from 1.527 to 1.384.
So what’s wrong with Hamels?

This has actually been going on throughout his career; it really is just noticeable for the first time because he has been so much of a disappointment this year. He just seems to be more comfortable at home, even if the park is a disadvantage.

He’s also pitched in some terrible stadiums on the road this year, including Great American Ballpark, Yankee Stadium and Coors Field.

The splits may get better as the season goes on, but Hamels is not an elite pitcher this season. The good news is that before this year, his career first half ERA was 3.71, a number that falls to 3.08 in the second half.

Run of the Mill: Kevin Millwood doesn’t seem to have much luck with the All-Star game. Despite winning the AL ERA title in 2005, he was shutout of the game and this year he’ll be sitting at home with the league’s fifth best ERA.

Millwood may not have All-Star luck, but he has been lucky this year. His BABIP numbers have been exceptional in the first half, 50 points below the league average for both groundballs and fly balls. His .057 BABIP on fly balls is probably the most concerning, since as the weather heats up in Texas the ball tends to fly out of the Ballpark at Arlington at a much higher pace.

I’m not the biggest believer in classifying pitchers as “lucky”, because if you’re going to be in the running for an ERA title or a Cy Young award there is a ton of luck involved. But even when Millwood had an ERA of 2.86 in Cleveland, his BABIP was higher. There may be a bit of a correction coming for Millwood, but there are plenty of experts that have been warning of this all year. You shouldn’t be concerned as long as Millwood isn’t your frontline starter.

Pedro returning: Various reports have Pedro Martinez saying he wants to sign a contract this week, probably placing him on track to pitch after the All-Star break. Where he might be signing is still very much up in the air, though Tampa Bay and Philadelphia have been rumored to be interested. Fantasy owners should not be, at least not right away. There are much better pitchers available than a 37-year old who hasn’t played since the World Baseball Classic. His last four starts for the Mets last year were disastrous. The Dominican went 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA. Remember there are better options at this point of the season.

Pitcher pickup of the week: Glen Perkins, Twins
Since returning from the disabled list, Perkins has been great for Minnesota. Like most sinker ballers he’s not a strikeout pitcher, but he picks up wins. Since his trip to the DL, Perkins is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA in four starts. He’s only struck out nine, but his WHIP of 1.19 makes up for that. This week he starts against the Yankees on Wednesday, but he gets to face the very tough lineup at home, where he has a 3.72 ERA this season. Perkins was roughed up by the Yankees in his final start before being placed on the DL, but he lasted only 2/3 of an inning before leaving with his injury.