By Steve Nitz

In case you haven’t heard, Matt Holliday was traded to St. Louis earlier today. In return, the A’s received third baseman Brett Wallace, right-hander Clayton Mortensen, and outfielder Shane Peterson.

Obviously, this is a tough pill to swallow for players who had Holliday in AL-only leagues. But for everyone else, this comes as a blessing. Holliday, who was hitting .286 wiht 11 homers, 54 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases prior to the trade, should only get better moving from cavernous Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum and a horrible Oakland lineup. In St. Louis, he’ll be able to hit in a better park, and he’ll also be hitting behind Albert Pujols in a good Cardinals lineup. Those in NL-only leagues shouldn’t hesitate to use the No. 1 waiver priority on him.

The only other player in the trade who could have fantasy value is Wallace, the 13th overall pick in last year’s draft. Wallace was rated as the No. 40 prospect in all of baseball by BaseballAmerica before the season. So far, Wallace has hit .289 with 11 homers and 35 RBIs between AA and AAA this year.

Wallace will head to Oakland’s AAA club in Sacramento, and he should see Oakland before the year’s over. A third baseman now, he could wind up a first eventually. He could have some value in AL-only leagues when he does get the call.

By Ted Cahill

Carlos Pena was already in what might be the worst slump of his nine-year career before he faced Mark Buerhle on Thursday.

Taking an 0-for-3 during the 18th perfect game in Major League history didn’t help matters for the Tampa Bay first baseman. It just extended his misery to 3-for-28 with no extra base hits in nine games. Entering the Rays’ weekend series at Toronto, Pena was hitting .222 with 24 home runs.

The left-hander also has struck out 121 times in 95 games this year, putting him on pace to break Jack Cust’s AL strikeout record. Despite all of Pena’s struggles, he is still owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues and 92 percent of Yahoo! Leagues.

It has been stated this year that Pena is not paid by the Rays to hit .300 or even .280 and no fantasy owner drafted him with that in mind. But at what point does his extended slump present a problem to fantasy owners?

Pena’s longest stretch this year without an RBI is nine games, meaning that even with the awful batting average, he continues to provide production. He also leads the league in home runs and has even contributed two stolen bases. If your league uses OBP, that number is more than 100 points higher than his batting average, an excellent sign.

But he’s still only hitting .222 and batting average is universally used in fantasy baseball leagues. What if he doesn’t come out of this slump? Is a player like Casey Blake or Russell Branyan actually a better option?

Both Blake and Branyan (among many other first basemen) have an average at least fifty points higher than Pena and have driven in about 10 fewer runs. Branyan is tied for the league lead in home runs, while Blake has half their total. So far, Branyan and Blake have produced better value than Pena, and Branyan has actually produced better numbers.

But as I’ve already written, I don’t think Branyan will continue to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the year. Blake is a steady producer and is doing exactly what is expected of him. As for Pena, most projections include a better batting average, without any power sacrifice.

His career second half numbers show that this should happen. Pena is a better player in the second half historically, hitting more home runs and adding 20 points to his average.

However, supporting Pena with another player may be worthwhile. He is predictably hitting much worse against left-handed pitching this year. Against right-handers he this .236 with 17 home runs and 45 RBI, but against lefties those numbers drop to .200, seven and 15. Joe Maddon will never make Pena a platoon player, but fantasy owners could consider it, especially competing in a division that includes CC Sabathia and Jon Lester.

That option obviously isn’t for everyone, but if Pena’s batting average concerns you that is one way to work around it. Pena also still has plenty of trade value and if a player like Blake can be included in a deal that shores up your team in other areas, you won’t be sorry.

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 10:00
by Steven Iñiguez Ruiz
National’s Morgan starting off on the right foot
Besides Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman, the Washington Nationals’ pool of valuable fantasy players has been rather shallow this season. As of Wednesday morning, the Nationals find themselves 27 games behind the National League East leading Phillies, but fantasy owners looking for SB need to overlook the bad record and focus on OF Nyjer Morgan. Morgan is currently 5th in MLB in stolen bases and is available in one out of every two Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. Morgan was traded to the Nationals from the Pirates on the 30th of June and has been plugged into the leadoff spot where he has flourished with a .333 Avg, 11 SB, and 10 R in 66 AB in the month of July. The 11 stolen bases are important because it is the most he has stolen in a month so far this season, and Nationals manager Jim Riggleman has made public that he wants his team to run more, so look for Morgan to be running when he reaches base.
Nyjer Morgan (Was – OF)
Avg HR RBI R SB
.288 2 30 50 29
——————-

By Ted Cahill

It looks like the shutout Joel Pineiro threw at Citi Field last month had more to do with the right-hander than the hapless Mets’ offense.

In the 30-year old’s last five starts beginning with New York; he is 3-1 with a 1.63 ERA. Pineiro shut down Milwaukee, one of the league’s top offenses, on the road. He braved Great American Ballpark and beat Arizona himself with a two-RBI double. The only team to get the better of Pineiro was Minnesota, who touched him up for five runs including a Justin Morneau home run.

Overall, Pineiro is 8-9 with a 3.09 ERA and is looking more like the pitcher that won 16 games as a 24-year old than the one that lost 13 just three years ago.

The key to Pineiro’s success has been his command. He leads the league in walks per nine innings and has only issued 12 free passes all year. Even in his five-game losing streak this year, Pineiro only walked four hitters in 29 2/3 innings.

A sinker-baller, Pineiro has been effective keeping the ball down in the zone this year. He has allowed only three home runs, one less than the number of batters he has hit.

But Pineiro’s numbers are not a function of extraordinary luck. Overall, he has a BABIP of .288, just below his career .298 BABIP. In his last five starts, Pineiro has been much luckier, lowering his BABIP to .203.

Even in Pineiro hits another tough patch, his low walk rate makes him worth a look for fantasy owners. After a start against Houston on Monday, Pineiro has to pitch in Philadelphia, a stern test for any pitcher. If Pineiro can get through this week with a pair of quality starts, he will certainly rate a pickup for many teams.

Trading places:
The trading deadline is just around the corner and, as usual, many contenders feel that they need to beef up their bullpen. Many teams are working to acquire closer George Sherrill from the Orioles. Rumored to have contacted Baltimore about the left-hander are the Angels, Dodgers, Brewers and the Cubs. The Marlins may have interest as well if they can somehow stay in the race.

The problem for Sherrill and fantasy owners is that the Angels, Dodgers and Brewers all have established All-Star closers. The Cubs probably wouldn’t move him into the closers role, but he would be an option along with Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol. If Sherrill is dealt before the deadline, he immediately loses most of his fantasy value.

If you eliminate saves as a stat in a standard 5×5 league, Sherrill drops from the 51st most valuable fantasy player all the way to 128 according to baseballmonster.com. Sherrill owners should keep a close eye on trade rumors and start preparing a backup plan in case he is moved.

Main attraction:
Last week San Diego called up Mat Latos one of the most highly-regarded pitching prospects. The 21-year old faced Colorado, striking out four. Latos is on a closely-monitored pitch count, which limited him to four innings in his debut. The Padres are clearly trying to limit his innings due to his history of injuries.

Whether he can make an impact this season for fantasy owners remains to be seen. For keeper leagues he’s probably worth a spot on the bench now, given his tremendous upside and a future of pitching in PETCO Park. For typical leagues, Latos most likely won’t save your season. But for those of you in a bind this week, he does get to face the Nationals on Friday.

Pitcher Pickup of the Week: John Lannan, Nationals

There are some good one-start options for this week (Randy Wells, Jarrod Washburn) but one of the best two-start pitchers comes from Washington. Lannan is part of a young staff that will help the Nationals turn around their track record in years to come, but this week is also very lucky. Lannan gets to face the Mets (Tuesday) and Padres (Sunday) at home, where he is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA this year.

Throw in the fact that the two teams he’ll be facing are among the worst offensively and his four-hitter against the Mets at home June 6 and you have a winner. In fact since the calendar flipped to June, Lannan is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA and pitched very well against both the Yankees and Red Sox.

The biggest strike against the 24-year old is his walk rate, but he seems to have gotten that under control, issuing only one free pass in each of his last three starts.

By Raymond Ayala

PHIL HUGHES (P NYY) – If the Yankee fan in your league has already not picked him up, I would say Phil Hughes is probably the best pitching option available right now in deep mixed leagues. Hughes can be used as a relief pitcher and a starting pitcher, giving him flexibility as well. Over his last ten appearances, he has 12 IP 15K’s and has not given up a run. Whether he sticks on the Yankees as a relief pitcher, or is traded to the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay, just know you are getting good value with Phil Hughes.

GARRET JONES (OF PIT) – If it had not been for Justin Morneau blocking this kid in Minnesota, he would probably already be a household name. Jones has come from out of nowhere to become the Pirates main source of power. He compares well to Adam Dunn of the Washington Nationals and is the 2nd half answer to your power problems. In his first 10 games since his call up he has 7 HR’s and 9 RBI. Sure those numbers will slow down, but if you could get a couple of Homeruns a week from a guy you could easily snag in free agency, then why not do it?

SCOTT HAIRSTON (OF OAK) – The former Padre, has become a regular for the Oakland Athletics, and for good reason. The A’s surrendered three young pitchers to acquire Hairston, who has not done much thus far in his career. But Oakland is planning to build around this guy, which means big opportunities at RBI’s and HR’s, especially if the A’s part ways with Matt Holiday.

RYAN SADOWSKI (P SFG) – The San Francisco Giants have been a surprise team this year, and have shown signs of quality pitching throughout the first half of the season. One starting pitcher that has gotten overlooked is righty Ryan Sadowski. In 18 IP Sadowski has only given up 2 ER, and he did this against quality hitting teams. His next start will be against Atlanta, countering Tommy Hanson, so maybe wait another week or two to pick up this guy. Down the stretch his arm could become a very valuable pickup, especially if Randy Johnson does not come off the Disabled List.

CASEY MCGEHEE (2B, 3B MIL) – When top prospect Mat Gamel couldn’t handle the heat of being an everyday third basemen, McGehee came out of nowhere to become a regular in the Brewers lineup. Though he has slowed down from his early strong pace, he still is carrying a .321 Batting Average, with 6 HR’s and 27 RBI’s, in only 156 AB’s. I expect a strong second half from McGehee, and he would be a fine addition to a team needing middle infield help.

By Steve Nitz

Clay Buchholz deserves to be in Boston’s rotation. He’s a better option than Brad Penny and his 5.02 ERA and a better option than a washed-up John Smoltz.

Some people might think I’m speaking too highly of a guy has started 21 games in the big leagues and had a 6.75 ERA with the Red Sox last season. But Buchholz has tremendous talent, possessing three plus pitches. He’s threw a no-hitter in 2007 and has been great at Class AAA Pawtucket (7-2, 2.36 ERA, 89 K’s in 99 IP). He’s ready to pitch in Boston, but the Red Sox don’t have room for him with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Smoltz, and Penny in the rotation.

Boston called him up from Pawtucket to start Friday, where he threw 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball, striking out three. But he was sent back down Saturday when Boston activated Jed Lowrie.

So what should fantasy players do with Buchholz? He can certainly be an asset, especially in AL-only leagues, but when will he get a chance again? There is always a chance Boston could trade Penny, or either him or Smoltz could get moved to the bullpen should they keep struggling. But Daisuke Matsuzaka could return to Boston within the next month as well, taking another rotation spot. There is also the chance that the Red Sox could deal Buchholz for a veteran such as Victor Martinez or Roy Halladay, although that is unlikely.

I think that AL-only players should hang on to Buchholz or pick him up, as he could be really good down the stretch and there isn’t going to be anything better on the waiver wire. Mixed leaguers might want to wait until he gets another start.

If the Red Sox wanted to put their best five starters out there, Buchholz would be in the rotation for good.