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Breakdowns in the final minutes of college basketball are a frequent part of the game. Teams can go on a cold drought when the spread was well in hand and instead push the moneyline bettors on the brink of a loss. Coaches also can harm a point spread by protecting a lead the wrong way. Offensively they may get too conservative which plays into the hand of the other team. Conservative effort on offense by dribbling the air out of the ball often leads to lackluster effort defensively.

The top dagger though will always be free throw shooting. Coaches across America have practiced to foul early to prolong a game. Sometimes the opposing team is not in the double bonus yet, and can be set for three to four one and one situations. Once the free throws start to miss it’s a snowball effect for the entire team.

It’s hard to predict the exact scenarios that those instances will happen, but betting college basketball you need to realize you’ll be on the good side and bad side of at least five to seven of those instances. Knowing which teams are likely going to suffer from the free throw line in late situations, can help you decide to pass on a game ATS.

Here are current top 25 teams that you should be leery on in late game situations.

Utah–Rank–241—66%
Utah has been winning games with better offense than expected. Defensively they can shut down an opposing team for stretches to surge past a spread. Lately though they’ve been favored by steep lines, which can be troublesome because of their team woes at the free throw line. The Pac-12 is a bit down this year but still has plenty of scorers. In a game where Utah may end up shooting between 15-25 free throws, there could be an ATS loss suffered because of their struggles.

Arizona—Rank–250–.659
This should be no secret at Arizona being one of the worst in the top 25 at free throw shooting. The athletes and mold of Sean Miller’s teams have never fit the bill for solid free throw shooting. There will be some heart breakers for backers of Arizona because they have not lit up the scoreboard offensively and are still being heavily favored in games.

West Virginia—Rank–259–.657
West Virginia is a bit shocking because of their solid guard/forward heavy contributions. They shoot the ball well from the perimeter and can keep pace offensively with any team in the country. Sometimes when offense is the main catalyst as it is for West Virginia it can lead to a lack of concentration at the free throw line. I’d expect their free throw shooting to rise and get better as more emphasis is put on it.

Louisville—Rank–284–.65
Louisville has been a bit of a conundrum with their on court performances lately. They’ve had big leads in plenty of games but have had mental lapses that have cost ATS wins for them. Free throw shooting I wouldn’t say has been the main detriment in those letdowns, but it has been a slight contributor. This is another team that’s free throw shooting percentage should rise with increased emphasis by Rick Pitino. Out of all the teams on this list I would have the most confidence in Louisville at the stripe in late game situations.

VCU—Rank–321—.628
VCU will not be a team that improves at the free throw line as the season stretches. Key players such as Briante Weber, Treveon Graham, and others all have their struggles at the line. I’ve seen plenty of games last year in-conference where their free throw shooting cost point spreads in the final minute. Be very cautious as a VCU backer in-conference as point spreads in their games will likely be -6 or higher throughout conference play.

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VCU came into the 2014 campaign as an Atlantic 10 top rated team and one that has caught the eyes of several top college basketball analysts. I, myself had them ranked as a potential sleeper for a run in March. I still do. One of the things that people need to realize is just how much things can change for November until March. UConn showcased this as the most current example. Just a few weeks before the March Madness tournament they were defeated resoundingly by Louisville.

A team can grow in a quick matter. All that matters come March is seeding and the path of teams they face to get there.

For current ATS bettors, you’ve been extremely unsatisfied with VCU. They have only won two games ATS, one against Oregon and the other against Tennessee. Overall that makes them 2-6 ATS. The reason for this has been three keys in my eyes.

1. Their pressure havoc defense has been halted by poor back line defense. Teams are zipping the ball past the first wave and finding easy strides to the hoop for layups. This has been accomplished thanks to the teams they have faced having above average backcourts. That won’t last the entire season and Shaka Smart will amend his havoc defense a bit.

2. VCU’s offense at times can be stagnant. Half court execution has been better over their last few games. On the bench freshman Terry Larier and Justin Tillman are getting more and more comfortable offensively—this has to translate to the Rams havoc defense. Also sophomores JeQuan Lewis and Doug Brooks showed last year they’re capable of rising to the occasion—they just need to be more consistent.

3. Free Throw Shooting– This is VCU’s main culprit in their woes. They’ve always been a poor free throw shooting team. Against Northern Iowa though it was the difference in VCU gaining a win. Treveon Graham went 6 for 6 from the line and the team as a whole shot the ball better than Northern Iowa from the free throw line.

4. Leadership–This team has Treveon Graham, junior Melvin Johnson, Mo Allie-Cox,Jordan Burgess and defensive specialist Briante Weber. They’ve played on teams that were represented by VCU players that went to the Elite 8 a few seasons ago. They showed last year in quick stretches this team can turn a close game into a blowout.

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Today’s Free Play: ASU vs Marquette Total

Play Under 132

Both of these teams are a contrast of each other. ASU lacks a defensive presence but has great shooters all over the floor. They lead the country in three point shooting with several players that have over performed. But they also haven’t faced a team as talented defensively as Marquette or ventured on the road (Once to Texas A@M) this season. Marquette is one of those teams you can count to have a dead stall of offense for at least two small stretches and possibly even a seven minute stretch. They still have a lot of hold overs from the Buzz Williams regime that preached defense. New transfer Matt Carlino is an ignition for offense but also takes plenty of bad shots that I’m sure ASU Coach Herb Sendek will have at the top of his scouting report. Take the under

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Zack is now a documented 19-3 on the season in college basketball. Be sure to check out his daily plays under today’s picks. For Wednesday he has a free play between St. Joes and Temple.

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College basketball’s 2014-2015 season is here. Time just keeps flying but I can say over the years I have not lost my passion for college basketball. It truly is a special sport to watch and of course make some cash on. This year should be as exciting as ever. As I usually do, I like to layout three potential NCAA college basketball winners to showcase.

Best Odds on Favorite: Duke 10-1
Duke did lose Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker to the NBA. Both were only at the program for one season before departing for the lure of NBA money. Do not think for once that Duke isn’t capable of replacing them. Coach K knew Parker would be gone and Hood truly was the type of player that had maximized his college potential. The depth in the backcourt with upper classmen in Rasheed Sulaimon and Quinn Cook is impressive. Last year with Hood and Parker shooting the ball at a high rate Cook and Sulaimon did not get enough looks at the basket. That’ll change this season. The back line with Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, and freshman Jahlil Okafor will be tough for the ACC and rest of the country to contain.

Best Mid-Tier Team: Louisville 35-1
I truly do not have any idea why Louisville is this undervalued. Sure they lost Luke Hancock and Russ Smith but last year the team was bogged down a bit by both. Russ took a lot of bad shots and Hancock never looked healthy like he did the season prior. The balance just was not there with the unexpected release of Chane Behanon and Kevin Ware’s decision to transfer. This season the offense will go through Montreze Harrell. Harrell has been a force since his freshman year and will be the best big man in the country in 2014-2015. Add Coach Rick Pitino’s thriving defense and sophomore Terry Rozier’s improvements from his freshman season and you have another Pitino coached team that can make a deep run in March. The step up to the ACC will help this team endure bumps early and progress in conference play through March Madness.

Best LongShot: VCU Rams 60-1
In the early summer VCU was 40-1 to win the NCAA title. The drop down to 60-1 is peculiar to me. Obviously that move has more to do with people buying major conference teams as viable title winners. The Atlantic 10 last season was the most underrated conference in college hoops to me. VCU returns several players from last year’s team and I expect their defense to crank up even higher. Don’t be surprised if they get a true at-large bid this year and make a similar run that they did as an 11th seed years ago. There only current problem is scoring efficiency on the offensive end, but if they can alleviate those woes by March look out.

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TV ratings are a high indicator of where there true money is at. Just a few weeks ago Las Vegas finished in the top three on Monday Night football. Obviously with no major sports franchise residing in Las Vegas there is a main reason for this; finality in watching a legal sports wager fail or win.

Thursday ratings squarely will primarily be on tonight’s NFL Network broadcast of the NFC North matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. But lets not forget about tonight’s action on the court in the NBA.

There are two games in the Houston Rockets vs the San Antonio Spurs and the Dallas Mavericks vs the Portland Trailblazers.

Houston returns home after extending their undefeated win streak to five games. If you followed me on twitter you would have seen I said to play the over on the Rockets win total of 49.5 and the under on the Cavs of 58.5.

San Antonio meanwhile is out the gate a bit slow. They lost to the Suns a few nights ago and barely defeated the Atlanta Hawks last night. Tonight marks just the fourth game for San Antonio and will be on consecutive nights. Oddmakers always adjust the Spurs line because of Coach Poppovich’s penchant to rest his key players. Hence the Rockets are 4.5 point favorites tonight.

I think the Rockets are out to make a statement on this season and tonight. The loss of Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin has actually helped the Rockets. Young and rising star Terrence Jones has been able to move better without the basketball and is getting more shots as well. Trevor Arizona has been able to get open shots which he is capable of making with proper floor spacing.

In the night cap the Portland Trailblazers are coming off a resounding home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. After a tied first quarter things unraveled quickly for the Cavaliers. Backcourt play was awful in that game from Dion Waiters and Kyrie Irving, while the Trailblazers could not miss on the offensive end. Several players scored in double digits as things got out of hand in the fourth quarter.

The line on this game favors the Trailblazers by just two points and has a total of 207.5. Portland is a team that typically does not put away teams which is tough betting for or against them on a consistent basis. But on a totals side of things you can find high value on the first half with them. They are one of the stronger teams at scoring a high amount of points in the first quarter.

Tonight I expect them to have their shots falling again and to feed off of Tuesday’s performance against the Cavaliers.

Play the Rockets -4 and the over first half on Dallas and the Portland Trailblazers, which is 104.5.

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