Follow @cimini

The media and NBA fans have received what they have wanted in this series. Something to catch their eye during the summer extended months before football season is here. It’s been a great finals, that will be talked about for many years to come. This game six can obviously end the road and be the finality of the Big Three.

It looks as if San Antonio has figured out how to offset Miami’s ferocious defense even if they create turnovers. The turnovers have been offset by catching the Heats aggressiveness for transition three point shots, and Tony Parker’s artistry as a point guard.

Miami is in an elimination game which means they’ll put the pedal to the medal offensively. Expect Lebron James and Dwayne Wade to attack as if they’re careers are possibly over. That will create a rise in free throws, and likely free up spot shooters Ray Allen and Mike Miller.

I do not see the Heat stopping the Spurs momentum offensively. So that means the Heat will have to stay in this game with offense. Take the over of 191.5

Follow @cimini

HAS A SERIES BEEN TIED AT 1-1 WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO GAMES? IN THE NBA FINALS NOT IN QUITE AWHILE. THE STARS ON BOTH TEAMS BESIDES LEBRON HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT. IT COULD BE BECAUSE OF BOTH COACHES CLAMPING DOWN AND MAKING PROPER ADJUSTMENTS.

TO ME THOUGH, IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE WEAR AND TEAR OF THE SEASON AND AGE HAVE BEATEN DOWN STARS TONY PARKER, TIM DUNCAN,MANU GINOBLI DWAYNE WADE, AND EVEN CHRIS BOSH. EACH OF THE FIVE HAS SEEN ROLE PLAYERS ON THEIR TEAM OUTPERFORM THEMSELVES, WHILE EACH HAS HURT THE TEAM AT TIMES WHILE ON THE COURT.

PEOPLE WERE RAISING THEIR EYEBROWS TO THE FACT THAT MIKE MILLER WAS SUDDENLY GETTING ROTATION MINUTES, ALONG WITH BIRDMAN GETTING AN INCREASE AS WELL. THIS COACHING ADJUSTMENT AND THE BETTER ROLE PLAYERS THAT THE HEAT HAVE MAY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN THE SERIES. IT’S NOT FROM AN OFFENSIVE STANDPOINT EITHER. NORRIS COLE AND MARIO CHALMERS HAVE STEPPED UP THEIR DEFENSE ON TONY PARKER AND IF IT CONTINUES IT WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR THE SPURS OFFENSE. LOOK FOR THE HEAT TO CONTINUE TO STIFLE THE SPURS DEFENSIVELY. THAT AFFECT TAKES ITS TOLL IN THE SECOND HALF SORT OF LIKE A PREMIER RUNNING BACK IN FOOTBALL. SAN ANTONIO COULD NOT HOLD UP FOR FOUR FULL QUARTERS AND HANDLE THE INTENSITY OF THE HEAT’S DEFENSE. TURNOVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM AND THAT WILL HALT THE TOTAL FROM ECLIPSING THE OVER ONCE AGAIN.

TAKE THE UNDER OF 187.5

Follow @cimini

It seems like the Heat and Spurs played game one a month ago. Yes the NBA stretches out the NBA finals more than any other sports championship. The focus obviously is on how the Heat will respond amid a fourth quarter collapse in Game One. The questions surrounding the Big Three’s stars besides Lebron James continue to feed the media.

On Sunday’s free play we will focus on the first half line total. It is at 92 points, and was at that mark almost every game in the Heat/Pacers series. Pretty much every game it sailed under the first half total. Indiana missed a lot of easy layups in first halves and did not get to the free throw line nearly as much as San Antonio does.

That can be traced back to point guard play, which Indiana did not really have in George Hill. Tony Parker is as elite a point guard the game has, and his bread and butter comes in the playoffs.

With the Heat expected to come out gunning and the veterans of the Spurs digging down to try and keep in game two, I expect the first half to be sail over the total of 92

Follow @cimini

If you’ve been following the eastern conference at all this postseason than today’s free total should not be hard to predict. Of all the series though this eastern conference final has been a bit tricky in terms of totals. Game six though will not fall into that category of surprises.

For those that believe Chris Anderson’s suspension should boost the Pacers offense should think otherwise. Anderson is a viable player off the bench, but this Heat team has played undersized for two years, including last years postseason ride. Anderson has been more beneficial on the offensive end. A lineup change without Anderson means that Udonis Haslem, and even Joel Anthony will see increased minutes.

With Dwayne Wade and Ray Allen struggling offensively, this game is going to turn much more like the second half of game five. Lebron James is going to have to play a role he was similar to doing as a Cleveland Cavalier. He’ll try and do it all, and will the Heat to a win.

Playing that style against two defensive minded teams bodes high for this total to trump well under 183. Play the under of the first half total and game, to grab two secure wins on Saturday.

It’s a potential closeout game, and Indiana has to up the ante. It’s not going to happen offensively if they want to make it to a game seven. Lance Stephenson continues to put up horrendous jump shots. He had a few in game five come closer to landing in South Beach than the hoop.

The oddmakers have this one right by reducing this total from 186.5 from game five.

Follow on Twitter @cimini

The Pacers were finally rolled on in a shocking lopsided home defeat. People tend to remember their series versus the Knicks, in which they dominated for the most part. In round one though they were sporadic for a few games, and lost a few games by lopsided losses.

They might be down for the count in this series tonight, but they will get back to their proper style of defense.

Frank Vogel will adjust his defense from the new twists the Heat threw in game three. Chris Anderson and Udonis Haslem cannot keep at their rate, and Dwayne Wade just is not showing a complete four quarters of offense.

This should go under the total of 184.5. If it doesn’t than the series is all but over, as the Pacers were not able to make adjustments.

Follow @cimini

The end of the game in the Pacers and Heat has drawn all a stir of poor coaching by Indiana Head Coach, Frank Vogel. Let that be the case for Friday’s plus 7.5, as the bookmakers still have money pouring in on the Heat. During the season Indiana defeated the Heat 2-1, and had another victory in their hands Wednesday.

There were several catalysts in that game that would make you jump on the Pacers today. The Heat never could get a proper home lead they’re accustomed to, in fact their largest lead was only five. Chris Bosh struggled to grab any rebounds of any sort, and should have been called for an offensive foul on a late three point play put back.

Miami which is accustomed to pulling away from teams because of a disparity in foul shots, could not get that accomplished Wednesday. In fact, they found their stars in foul trouble as well.

The Heat had their games against the Bulls where they had to play an entire four quarters to pull out a win. Indiana is healthier and a far better team in half court sets offensively than the Bulls were.

It’s going to be a tight series, and plus 7.5 may be the last standout line of this series before Vegas pulls it back to 4-5 points for a Heat home game.