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Tonight the Indiana Pacers travel to Washington after narrowly edging the Miami Heat. It may have been a temporary mental lift for the Pacers but they have been a mess since the All-Star break. Gone is the fluid half court offense they use to have. Also they haven’t had the big time defensive edge against teams like they did pre-All Star break.

The line on this game tonight favored Indiana by two points and is now sitting at just 1.5. Line analysis sometimes serves you best when looking for proper spread plays. Tonight follow the line movement and play the Wizards at home.

Indiana is prone to lapses at the end of the first and early portions of the second quarter. That has been caused by poor play from the second unit. Once the first unit returns to the floor they seem to lack the same energy and focus they initially had. Look for Washington to feed off of that and build a comfortable lead going into halftime.

Second halves are always shaky in the NBA but Washington should be able to hang on and pull off the overall victory.

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Earlier this season Arizona dismantled San Diego State and won by nine points. The Aztecs would go on to win their next twenty games after dropping the second game of the season to Arizona. The opening line on this game was six points. It’s the only game that has seen heavy movement from a point spread standpoint. Currently the line sits at 7.5 and will likely attract more money on Arizona.

The same reasons why money is on Arizona are strengths of this Aztec team. They have athletic big men in Josh Davis and Winston Sheperd. They also have two playmakers in leader Xavier Thames and emerging player Dwayne Polee II.

Lets be clear they are a team that struggles in stretches of games to score points. Steve Fischer and his team realizes that, it’s been an issue all season. The way they stay in games though is with their stout half court and transition defense.

Arizona was fortunate enough to have been in the Pac-12 conference where defense is only a strength of the Wildcats. Basically every night the Wildcats faced soft half court defense. That’s why I have the Wildcats as a team on watch today and Saturday. San Diego State is going to provide a much tougher challenge for the Wildcats than people anticipate. I’d surely grab the points here and wouldn’t be surprised for an outright upset.

Clippers Second Unit Poor Defense Make Outlook Worrisome

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Remember the Golden State Warriors of five years ago or even the free gunning Phoenix Suns during Steve Nash’s era? They were great regular season teams to watch but come playoff time disappointment would prevail. This day and age the Clippers are one of the best offensive teams to watch in the NBA. They have the fire power to run teams out of the building and do-so with 35/40 point quarters.

An area the Clippers just don’t seem to be lacking any passion is on the defensive end. Earlier in the season the team lacked the offensive cohesion to overcome their poor defensive play. They’ve obviously cleared that hurdle but back then Doc Rivers was stressing they needed to improve defensively.

Los Angeles is coming off of two games one against Detroit and one against Milwaukee that they were clearly the better team. In each game they come out on fire and quickly built double digit leads. Sloppy play offensively by the Clippers second units and their lack of defense let both the Bucks and Pistons back in the game. This of course was instrumental in killing any chances of sports bettors to cover a large spread in both games- check out the official NBA betting odds to better grasp the concept.

Against Detroit they held a first quarter lead of 36-23 to only see the Clippers actually trail late in the second quarter Second Quarter vs Pistons. Against Milwaukee last night you could of hit the repeat button. The Clippers were up by fifteen points late in the first quarter and relinquished the lead before the six minute mark of the second quarter.

This is clearly not a good sign for a team that is supposed to be dominant come playoff time. To get better the Clippers are going to need their high value pickups in Danny Granger and Glen Davis to develop as a true dependable bench unit. Clearly with those two, Collison, Crawford, and Jared Dudley they should boast as the top bench in the NBA.

For whatever reason that hasn’t happened and maybe the group just needs that on-court time to gel together.

Something will need to change quickly for the Clippers in the dominant Western Conference. There will be a formidable foe waiting for them in round one. With the style of play the Clippers display they’re going to be vulnerable to be pushed to a six or even seven game series right off the bat. To refrain from this happening they will need to up the ante on the defensive end of the floor. By letting the Detroit Pistons beat them at their own game of lob city repeatedly with Andre Drummond showcased their lack of passion on that end of the floor.

Let’s see what the Doc can get in order down in Los Angeles. It would be a travesty for a team with this type of talent to surrender in the playoffs because of an inability to play defense.

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I am on a good roll here lately with college basketball and NBA premium plays as well as free play write ups. Today’s free play write up comes in the Sixers vs Spurs NBA matchup. Philadelphia hasn’t won a game in several months now but that hasn’t stopped them from being a great team ATS, especially as of late. Sportsbook’s continue to offer high lines and casual as well as shark bettors continue to fall for it.

Today’s trip to San Antonio offers another high spread at 21.5 points. At this point of the NBA season everyone should know coach popovich’s game plan. If he is not sitting his old starters he is making sure they’re minutes are watched carefully. They do boast explosive fill in players with Tiago Splitter, Patty Mills, and others, but 21.5 is a bit high.

During Philadelphia’s transition period after trading away Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes it was clearly a good time to go after these inflated lines against Philadelphia. Now though they’ve settled in as a team.

I do expect San Antonio to race out early and have one of their typical double digit first or second quarter leads. That’s when Popovich will do the sit and watch maneuver with his starters. If the bench players can sustain the lead to a relative margin I wouldn’t expect the starters back out on the floor.

Either way the starters should not be in the game when the fourth quarter comes, unless Philadelphia is in the game which is good on your end.

Get this line now as bettors with common sense should be attacking the 76ers here.

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Is Warren Buffet going to have a reduced contest from the sweet 16 and on? That would be quite an announcement if he did for a cash prize of even $50,000 to someone that picked all games correctly. The fact that nearly all brackets were busted before the 2nd day just goes to show how tough picking standard plays are. Add a point spread as an element and it could make some of us break down quickly. But the fact of the matter is March is similar to the NFL playoffs. Teams that come in hot or with experience tend to trend better. Seeding really doesn’t have much of a factor as people think.

So teams like Syracuse, Duke, Villanova, and some that have struggled to get by with wins should not have come as a surprise. The biggest blowout of the opening round was Pittsburgh over Colorado. Pac-12 fans were the only ones not shocked. They had played awfully poor down the stretch in several blowout losses.

Just keep that in mind as the tournament continues to stroll forward.

On to the NBA today. Today’s free play will come via a total between the Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves. Phoenix has actually been a team that has not been as successful in high scoring affairs. I believe that has to do more with their defensive intensity picking up as well as the team adjusting to Eric Bledsoe in the lineup. There is always an adjustment period especially with someone of Bledsoe’s caliber and the way the team had transformed with Goran Dragic running the show.

I believe that period has concluded. Today is a perfect setup for the Suns to get out and run against the matador defensive minded Minnesota Timberwolves.

This should be an easy toppler of 217.5 with tons of fast breaks and quick pick and pops for three pointers. Look for a combined made threes of over 14.

A Look At Day Two Potential Upsets

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Day one of March Madness is currently underway and by the end of the night I’m sure Sportscenter will be profiling several upsets repeatedly. Predicting upsets and March Madness go hand and hand. Some bettors out there are prepared to reap a few key moneyline wins. Here are a couple that I like based on tomorrow’s matchups and lines.

Providence vs North Carolina-

Moneyline Value: +160
You can’t be greedy when picking and choosing your upsets. An upset is an upset and even though this won’t give you back 4-1 or higher it still presents great value. Providence is a true five man team. They know how to play with little depth coming off the bench. Teams like that are scary because to make the NCAA tournament you must have a solid core of athletes and Providence does. Kadeem Batts, Henton, Harris, and Bryce Cotton are a formidable group. I’m not sold on Carolina’s second half of their February and March turn around.

Stephen F Austin vs VCU
Moneyline Value: +245
Maybe the Atlantic 10 will prove me wrong but I did not like what I saw from the conference as a whole this year. Shake Smart’s team is not nearly as good as it’s been in prior years in the tournament. Losing Melvin Johnson in the conference tournament against George Washington hurts them tremendously. Stephen F Austin is a team with confidence and a chip on its shoulder to show it can make it to the round of 32. I think they get it done against the poor shooting VCU Rams.