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Playoff series in the NBA are usually pretty predictable. Seeding dictates a heavy factor in who advances—especially in a seven game series. I believe the NBA took away five game series due to some upsets that likely would not have occurred in seven game series.

Still there are scenarios that can be attractive for handicapping purposes eyeing plus payouts in series. Below are upsets from each conference that I believe possible in round one.

Eastern Conference- Toronto Raptors +110 over the Brooklyn Nets
By no means is this a strong upset—but it is a plus payout. Most series have lopsided odds because it is round one. Toronto is the higher seed but Brooklyn by experience gets the oddsmakers favor. Neither team is going to win this in five or six games in my opinion. Based on what I’ve seen in the regular season each team is extremely unpredictable. Brooklyn can lack mental defensive focus on one night, and Toronto can cave in on both ends of the court. Playoff time is different though, and father time can come calling at any moment in sports. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett were on their last legs in Boston and I’m not sure the cohesiveness without those two in playoff form will be strong enough to last a playoff series.

Western Conference- Golden State Warriors +320 over the LA Clippers
A year ago the Memphis Grizzlies knocked off the Clippers. Adding more pieces to the puzzle does not automatically guarantee a leap the following season. LA has been all flash in the regular season but has lacked any game to game focus on the defensive end of the court. They get back in games by making consecutive shots and tiring teams with their offensive aggression. Tiring the Warriors is not going to happen, so we can scratch that off. Outshooting the Warriors is possible but not in a quick sweep. This is by far the best plus payout series around. I think Clippers fans are going to be disappointed for the second year in a row.

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As of late the Chicago Bulls have been as erratic as can be for a team about to enter the playoffs. They lost badly to the Knicks a few nights ago and had to fight off a depleted Orlando Magic team just the other night. Two days ago I delivered on a free play winner right here with the Grizzlies over the Suns. The stakes in that game were the last seed in the Western Conference. The line crept higher and higher on Phoenix as bettors were attracted to the home court edge + the stakes.

Often times those are spots to reward yourself as a contrarian against the masses. Today should prove to be the same against a Bobcats team that I’ve been extremely disappointed in to conclude the season. It’s no secret they lack a true center. Opposing teams are able to get offensive rebounds at will and attack the interior with post-play or guards driving to the hoop.

Their strength had been perimeter defense and team ball on the offensive end of the court. Besides Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker this team as a whole has fallen on both ends of the court. Things could change but facing a Bulls team that has not exactly lived up to their solid play of around a month ago is going to prove to be a challenge.

The stakes factor is that the Bobcats could potentially swap spots with the Wizards and get a better playoff draw with a win and Wizards loss. Play against that notion and play the Bulls moneyline or +1.

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You can just about glorify tonight’s Nuggets/Clippers game as a preseason type of game. It’s going to be played like a scrimmage. Oddmakers in Vegas posted the total initially at 220. Currently the line has shifted down just a smidge to 219.

This coming from the Clippers who are locked in one of the top seeds in the West and the Nuggets who have been long gone from the playoffs. From the Clippers standpoint they’ll just be looking to keep their rhythm intact as the playoffs are just about here. On Denver’s side they’ll play short handed once again. Brian Shaw has to be pleased the way his bench players have played, as they’ve remained competitive and are scoring in bunches.

These are two teams that even in a meaningful game a 220 line would be worth money on. In this position I see it even more advantageous. The Clippers are a willing team on team on the defensive end of the court because they know they’re going to score on the other end. I’d expect both teams to have at least one quarter of high 30’s to low 40 point scoring.

Score on tonight’s late game and play the over.

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Media and sports bettors get drawn to decisive games. Tonight the Grizzlies and Suns square off for in all likelihood the 8th seed in the West. With the Grizzlies up a game on the Suns, this puts the Suns in a must-win situation. This point spread opened up at -2.5 and now sits at -3. Before game time it may even creep up another half point.

Bettors are assuming that Phoenix will get the job done, and overlooking this veteran laden Memphis team. On the year already the Grizzlies have won all three games against the Suns. “Memphis is not a good matchup for us,” Dragic said. “They have a lot of big guys under the rim and they attack the paint, Dragic said in their last loss to the Grizzlies.

There are just certain teams that are nightmares to play against, and Memphis is that team for Phoenix. The Grizzlies have played well against all the run and gun teams this year, such as Portland, Phoenix, and Houston. They know how to slow the game down to their liking and prevent four quarters of frenetic play.

There just aren’t many teams in the NBA that can dictate pace like the Grizzlies. Phoenix has had a great season but looks like they’re going to come up just short. By letting leads slip away against Dallas and San Antonio recently, the Suns put themselves in this bad spot.

Look for Memphis to control this game early and win in Phoenix tonight.

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As the NBA regular season winds down it can be difficult to gauge where to make a proper ATS selection. Playoff teams are more conscious of the health of their star athletes, and the rest of the league is planning for the lottery. #NBAtankmode has been an ongoing topping all season long.

That’s a particular play I am high on today is the Charlotte Bobcats on the road against the Boston Celtics. This Bobcats team will be in the playoffs this year while the Celtics find themselves out. Talk about an unplanned reversal in the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics had a similar year seasons ago when they let Antoine Walker walk away and eat himself out of the league. Their head GM in Danny Ainge is one of the brighter and business-minded front office’s minds in the game. His stint as head coach was short lived with the Suns but he has great knowledge of on-court personnel.

Currently they are tied with the Orlando Magic for third worst in the league. Lottery implications don’t end there as a couple of other teams are only a victory or two ahead of the Celtics. All of those other teams have head coaches that have been in their position for more than a season; Jacque Vaughn, Mike D’Antoni, and Ty Corbin.

They have their jobs on the line while the Celtics just hired Brad Stevens and obviously didn’t have the on-court talent this year.

More importantly the Bobcats need to keep winning to sustain their seeding in the Eastern Conference. They won a hard fought overtime game against the Wizards just a few nights ago. They’re winning with a three man offense and solid defense.

Look for their A-game to be on display while the Celtics solidify the hashtag of #NBAtankmode.

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Right around the corner is the NBA playoffs. The regular season typically translates to the top tier teams rising to the top in the playoffs. Seeding and home court advantage over takes the smaller seeds time and time again. Occasionally though the playoffs are a bit frenetic and open to some surprises.

With the Spurs aging and a questionable Pacers/Heat teams in the East, the door may be open for surprises this postseason.

Landing favorable odds are for the taking right now, and the team I have my eye on are the Golden State Warriors.

They are currently 17-1 to win the Western Conference and 30-1 to win the NBA title. Some may say the style of play they run is better ran by the Houston Rockets. Bigger names with James Harden and Dwight Howard do not give the Rockets the advantage. I think the Warriors are a better defensive team and will have learned from last year’s playoff experience.

There has also been a lot of negativity surrounding head coach Mark Jackson due to two assistant coaches being dismissed. Another key negator for the Warriors has been the health status of their team. Both big men in Andrew Bogut and David Lee have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.

But with them out Jermaine O’Neal has played admirably well, and the bench has developed better with increased minutes. Marresse Speights has shown with the 76ers and Warriors he is a capable 15-20 minute performer.

Notable second year player, Harrison Barnes, has come off the bench this season, and may be a forgotten player to some minds. But I look for him to perform well with the second unit that has done much better with Jordan Crawford on the court.

Of course the main catalysts still revolve around the Splash Brothers in Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Both had good runs last postseason and have hit a plethora of game winners this season.

Most people will likely attack the Heat, Spurs, and Thunder, but don’t be surprised to see a team like Golden State get a title or at least play in the Finals.