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Fortune often plays a key part anytime a repeat champion occurs in sports. For the Miami Heat, being based in the Eastern Conference is one in itself. Gone are the formidable yearly challenges from the Chicago Bulls or Boston Celtics.

There truly isn’t a formidable foe in their way. Some would say how can I say that? Their next opponent in the Brooklyn Nets swept them in the regular season. As Paul Pierce said in his postgame interview, the regular season and post season are completely different.

Those games in the regular season were down to the wire games, that happened to fall the Nets way.

Everyone knows the Heat were protecting Dwayne Wade all season long. The production from the Heat’s bench wasn’t as strong as it was in prior years either.

If the Nets had not went seven games with the Raptors then I would have gave them a fighting chance. Instead they had to expend an enormous amount of energy to rescue their season in game six and seven.

This is from a roster of veterans. Deron Williams is relatively young but has lost his quick feet and appears to not be at 100 percent. Paul Pierce still can come to play effectively but it’s in minor stretches now. Kevin Garnett is going to continue to bring the playoff energy we are use to seeing from him.

The player that killed the Heat in the regular season is assuredly going to garner the Heat’s main focus, in Joe Johnson.

Elevating their team defense has been a bankable catalyst for the Heat playoff runs. They stymied the Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, who have some of the best offensive weapons in the game.

Rested and hungry for another title the Heat will be prepared to take the life out of the Nets.

It’s one thing to come back in a series against a team that has zero playoff experience, and another to battle a team that wants another ring.

Brooklyn is in the same form that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett had in Boston. A few years ago they could battle in series by being catalysts night in and night out. It just can’t be counted on anymore from them.

If Brooklyn had a healthy Deron Williams as expected than this would be a very scary team. But health is not at an optimal level for the Nets right now. Maybe they should have protected Deron more with rest like the Heat did with Dwayne Wade.

In the offseason if the Nets can keep everyone and add a young top draft prospect or free agent they could be the face of the East next season.

Expect Miami to trounce the Nets in game one and win a closer game two. I then expect the Heat to fight back in game three after trailing to suck the last bit of life out of Brooklyn. From there a game four win may go to Brooklyn, but being behind 3-0 is a death blow to just about any series. Against the Heat though you can start booking your vacation plans early as a Net.

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In March Madness there are moments that band a team together. There is always that one game that a team has to figure out a way to pull off. The close call can be a disappointing end to a season or a rally mentally that we got through it.

For the past champions NCAA champions that close call came for UConn against Saint Joseph’s. Yes, round one. Seemingly the entire game the Huskies trailed. Each time they got within a basket a counter would come from Saint Joseph’s. Their leader in Kevin Ollie just would not let the Huskies give up.

None of the players caved and in the final minute the Huskies tied the game on three point play.

Saturday the NBA has three game sevens. All the hoopla is surrounding how this has never happened.

This is sports and from a handicapping standpoint, the media’s opinions need to be oblivious if you want to succeed.

The Thunder’s monster game six win over the Grizzlies was a stark contract from the first five games in the series. Oklahoma City set the tone with their style of play and matched the Grizzlies defensive intensity with their own concerted effort.

That type of loss coupled with the suspension of Zach Randolph is a double dagger mentally to this Grizzlies team.

They didn’t get the job done at home and they’re not going to in a game seven without their best player.

Head to your sportsbook or online book and get your play in on the Thunder at 8 to 8.5. Line movement will be swift before action begins.

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History often times does repeat itself. Many prospective bettors have their eyes on the Mavericks now that they are up 2-1, and playing game four at home. Just a few years ago the Mavericks ousted the Spurs as a huge underdog in the NBA playoffs.

Today’s free play does not focus on the line but rather the total. The line is set at 201.5 after eclipsing the total in game three. That game three total was toppled because of a pour it on first half from the Dallas Mavericks.

San Antonio just did not have the balance on the defensive end that we are use to seeing.

Defense hasn’t been their strong suit throughout the season. How the Spurs managed to have 62 wins is with undeniable half court offensive execution.

That execution would start right off the bat with fantastic first quarters. It seemed like the majority of the Spurs regular season games were won by run away first quarters.

I’m expecting the Spurs to try to outpace the Mavericks like they almost did in the second half in game three.

The last two games the Spurs just haven’t been able to match the Mavs defense. Therefore, keep going with the wave of the over on totals.

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During the NBA playoffs the bookmaker or sportsbook typically rakes in at a higher rate. People placing wagers just can’t ignore what they’ve last seen. Therefore miscues are made as people get in a one-set mind state.

The Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards has been neck and neck with the Pacers/Hawks as the ugliest series thus far. Game three the Bulls toughed it out and got a narrow win at Washington. The Wizards struggled offensively when it mattered most, and the Bulls did just enough to grab the win.

More than likely the total is going to attract sharp and public money on the under. Nene Hilario has to sit out due to suspension and people are going to expect the struggles they saw in game three.

I’m going to go the opposite direction here. The first two games of the series were not even close to the set total.

The Bulls are not the dominant defensive team that they were in prior playoff years. It’s a team that is patched on the offensive and defensive end. There is no D-Rose, Luol Deng, Rip Hamilton, or Ronnie Brewer.

Their younger in the guard and forward positions. They can play stretches of strong defenses but entire games is a bit much to expect.

Nailing a total in the low 180’s in any NBA game is difficult. Take the over as Sunday’s free play.

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Sometimes focusing on a first half play is advantageous. Tonight features three playoff NBA games. Since game one’s I have put a halt to NBA plays to feel out the plethora of series on going.

Not much has changed for today but I do have a total in one of the three games, as a premium play.

For a free play we will roll with the Clippers. They are a slight .5 point favorite for the first two quarters. Golden State in my opinion has not been a strong first half team all season. It’s a pattern that has shown time and time again especially at home.

Some will say, won’t a playoff atmosphere increase their play out the gate? It could, but I don’t see much changing in the first half from a blowout loss a few nights ago. The rude awakening will likely come at halftime and spark them for a run or two in the second half.

Golden State is just not a good team out the gate, while the Clippers are the exact opposite. They get off to fast starts.

Play the Clippers first half tonight.

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Cleveland’s up and down roller coaster season was expected record wise. Where it wasn’t expected was with backcourt teammates Dion Waiters and Kyrie Irving. Both should just be entering the NBA as Waiters left Syracuse two years early, and Irving three. Maturity definitely did not show throughout the season. The two struggled to co-exist and rumors ran rampant of a locker room fight between the two.

After their alleged scuffle rumors swirled on potential trades for either. The negative feedback from Cavaliers fans and the media seemed to have an impact on both. Down the stretch in the months of March and April both elevated their play. Not from an individual standpoint, but as a team.

They started winning unexpected games and confidence seemed to grow for both and the team.

Now it seems that Irving may stay in Cleveland and sign a long term contract. Dion Waiters still has a year left on his deal, and a team option for the next season. In all likelihood the Cavs will make a decision before the season on Waiters.

Teams all across the NBA are always in need of a scorer and Waiters fits that mold. Similar to JR Smith, Waiters has the same baggage from a team player standpoint. Smith has bounced around but has never relinquished his skills as a scorer.

I do not expect Waiters to be sent to the Las Vegas summer league like he has the past two years.

Certain players command the inner-circle of the front office and personnel decisions. If Irving resigns with Cleveland he will have that leverage.

Ultimately I believe the organization will see how the two co-exist in preseason training camp. If the two get along, Waiters will likely stay in Cleveland and be resigned.

If not then the Cavs will wait until before the trading deadline and get whatever they can for Waiters before the team option kicks in.

Lets hope that both can walk away from their on-court egos and realize the two can be as dynamic a guard tandem as there is in the NBA.