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Once upon a time an injury coming out of college did not harm an athlete. NBA team doctors knew about Greg Oden’s injury history. Team’s do a thorough job and surely knew his back and knees were in poor shape. Even in college he had issues. Yet, the size and talent was too much to pass up for the Portland Trailblazers.

Oden’s plight as the number one pick was unfortunate. His comeback attempt this past season looks like it may be his last on the NBA floor. His knees are so bad that he couldn’t even practice on a regular basis for the Heat. Yet the Heat saw an opportunity to perhaps squeeze a little bit out of Oden for playoff basketball. It just wasn’t meant to be.

Nerlens Noel saw his sure-fire position of a number one pick crash to sixth last season. No longer were teams willing to say will wait on your future based on injury recovery.

Joel Emblid and Julius Randle could find themselves dreading the injury bug. Their soon to be million dollar pockets could be missing an extra number in front of the comma. Randle states that his foot injury from high school has healed fine. Rumors state that is not true. Around the NBA teams will let their medical technology give them the answer versus Randle’s.

For Emblid it is unforunate. The spotlight was already on him in the last phase of Kansas’s season. In contention to make a strong run in March Madness, Emblid was not able to go with a back injury. Now another development has occurred just a week before the NBA draft. It appears that Emblid has fractured his foot.

The injuries for Emblid aren’t debilitating to consider his career in jeopardy. Luckily they haven’t involved main ligaments in his knees. But being injury prone is surely a label attached to him now. Teams are not going to go out on a limb to draft him at number one. Cleveland or a team willing to trade up has likely cancelled those thoughts.

Now Emblid’s future rests on how far he will slip in the draft. It’s a sad situation for an athlete that has worked his butt off to get in this position. Two to three years ago he was just beginning to play the game. He came to Florida to finish high school without a clue that he would rise to the level he is at now.

When it’s all said and done next week, Emblid should still remain a top ten pick. When the dust clears maybe this is a better result for Emblid. The mindset from the fan base and team that drafts him is recovery. Let Emblid recover and practice his way onto the court.

After all he is just 20 years old. In all likelihood he would have had a tough time dealing with being the number one pick. Now people will have the mentality that he is injury prone and fell in the draft.

The Greg Oden factor could end up being exactly what Emblid needed at the beginning of his career.

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Cashing in on great performances under the spotlight is nothing new. Who can forget cornerback Larry Brown from the Dallas Cowboys? He had two interceptions that were right to him from Neil O’Donnell in the Super Bowl. He won MVP and combined that fortunate night to a big payday with the Oakland Raiders.

In the NBA, Robert Horry made his living in the playoffs. Year after year he would shine once late April, May, and June arrived. In the regular season though he was a below average player. JJ Barea flourished as a Dallas Maverick which in turn led to his big contract for Minnesota. And now Patty Mills seems to be the latest in line to get an unexpected profitable contract in a few weeks.

He was one of many catalysts for the Spurs that ignited their sizzling offense. With the Spurs ball movement working to perfection, Mills was often wide open for three point shots. Yes he did make them, but the fact is he was wide open 90% of the time. Mills did help his cause by playing sound defense and causing a few offensive fouls.

I’m just not sure Mills is going to warrant a big contract. He shined for the Spurs in relatively a small scale of minutes. The bulk of these minutes either came against the Heat’s second unit (nothing to write home about) or against the Heat’s first unit with a big lead in hand. Most of those big leads the Heat’s first team was gassed. Spoelstra was just trying to seek out a counter run with his starters in the game.

Jeff Van Gundy did a fine job pointing out that Mills is realistically 5’8 and not 6’0. This was even more evident when the Spurs were on the floor for their NBA title. While standing next to all of his teammates including Tony Parker, Mills looked much shorter than six feet.

A lot of teams are going to be giving Mills a call to detract him from San Antonio. Poppovich and the Spurs likely won’t be able to match any big offers, and are prepared to let him go. Just last summer, Mills was in Las Vegas for the summer league with a roster spot up in the air. His conditioning and work ethic in the offseason is what propelled him past former first round pick Cory Joseph.

Starter’s minutes might not be the best thing for Patty Mills. Undersized he would be vulnerable to a nightly beating. Also, he never really gave the Spurs a spark as a passing point guard. The Spurs moved the ball well as a team not individually. It’ll be a part of his game we have not seen on the professional level, if he is capable of running a team as an individual.

You can compare the Spurs to Duke in college basketball. They get the best out of all their players but a transition to a new team doesn’t always pan out. Duke has always received a label of sending bust athletes to the NBA. San Antonio typically does a good job in keeping their talent, but they’ve had a few leave as part of trades or free agents.

The last to do so that played well as a Spur was George Hill. To say Hill has not lived up to his trade value for Indiana is an understatement.

Mills agent and Mills should seek the best contract he can get. But at the end of the day I don’t see Mills capable of being an every day starter.

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I’ve said all along that the Spurs will win the NBA championship. They came into the 2013 season with an eye on the prize after last year’s let down. They’ll still need to win one more game to accomplish that goal. A goal that looks more and more in their hands with the Heat breaking down.

The series is 3-1, and for how well the Spurs have played in Miami, it can’t be overlooked how well Miami played in San Antonio. The Heat could have very well won two games in San Antonio. Barrages of extreme offensive efficiency from all of the Spurs would have been too much for any team to overcome. In fact, their display of offensive prowess has occurred in series against Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Portland.

Portland was the only team totally befuddled by the Spurs to make it a six game series or longer. Dallas was able to calm the storm enough to push the Spurs to seven games. While the Thunder pushed back to even the series with Ibaka back, but could not muster that same resilience in games five and six.

The type of demolishing performances the Spurs put on against the Heat was keyed by the Spurs bench. Patty Mills couldn’t miss, Boris Diaw toned down his turnovers to became an assist catalyst, and Kawhi Leonard had his best two game stretch of his NBA career. It looked like the team just kept the momentum going as if game three never ended.

Those type of performances could repeat themselves against an ordinary team, but the Spurs are playing the Heat in an elimination game.

An elimination game that could mean the ending of a four year era, as well as the looming prospects of the Heat being remolded without LeBron James.

If the Heat go down losing they won’t lose based on poor defense again. They’re strength has been defense all year. Remember it was game one that they forced the Spurs into numerous turnovers.

If even one of the Spurs catalysts in games three or four falter, this should be an easy play on the under. All eyes are fixated on the latest happenings of the Spurs offensive efficiency.

Danny Green is replicating his 2013 hot start in the Finals. Will he cool off like a year ago?

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One of the biggest mistakes sports bettors make is assuming. This team can’t lose again, or it’s going to be a blowout after what happened to them last game. Settings do change, as game four is yet another high stakes NBA Finals game.

But a 5.5 point spread is too many in my estimation. What we just saw a bit over 24 hours ago, is the same product producing an extra point to point and a half on the spread. Is there reason for this? The only reason is that Vegas and bettors are assuming the Heat are going to respond in blowout fashion. They have their backs against the wall in a must-win situation. A loss means they had to San Antonio in an elimination game five matchup.

What bettors should be thinking is that this is a golden opportunity to play the points. I gave out a premium play on the over in game three, and for game four I’m giving out a free play on the Spurs.

It’s a simple tactic in handicapping. What you see is what you get. Don’t assume, go off of results.

San Antonio has the arsenal to adjust on the fly. Early in the series the Heat made it a focus to shut down Tony Parker. It worked, so San Antonio shifted to their big man Tim Duncan. San Antonio shifted again to perimeter offense with the likes of Manu Ginobli, Patty Mills, and Danny Green. That still hasn’t been relegated. Heading into game four we still don’t know if the Heat have a new answer for Kawhi Leonard.

Any type of adjustment the Heat make the Spurs can counter it with more offense.

The bottom line is any Heat wins are going to be close in this series. They truly have to win a game down to the wire to out duel this Spurs team. It’s how they won a championship a year ago against the Spurs.

San Antonio is too experienced and well rounded of a team to be offered 5.5 points.

Take the points and you’ll be breathing easily going into halftime, unlike bettors with money on Miami.

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It’s odd to see player’s just a few years ago becoming head coaches in the NBA. The old system of coaching ranks typically had former athletes work their way up as assistants. There were few that were able to break that trend, but they did not fare well as coaches.

Suddenly front offices are bucking that trend. Mark Jackson had a solid tenure with the Warriors before being let go. Jason Kidd with the Nets, and now Steve Kerr and Derek Fisher.

The signing of Derek Fisher as head coach should prove to be one of the best moves the Knicks have made in quite awhile. New York never had the lure to attract a coach for quite sometime, due to the disdain over Knicks management. Attracting proper free agents has even been a formidable issue for years. Salary woes impacted by Isiah Thomas seemed to cause a rollover affect that the Knicks could not shake.

By and Carmelo Anthony the Knicks thought they would solve their problems. Instead just like for Melo in Denver, with the signing of Allen Iverson things were aligned too late. Iverson’s career was on its last legs and the pair never reached any heights. The same could be said with Stoudemire as his knees ravaged the shine that he had as a Phoenix Sun.

now running the show with Phil Jackson things could finally change rather quickly. Fisher has a great rapport with the bulk of the players in the NBA. During Kevin Durant’s MVP speech he devoted special attention to Fisher’s commanding presence and daily work ethic.

The fact that Derek Fisher was even on an NBA roster speaks volume to the type of leadership he brings to a locker room. One could say after the Lakers traded him the first time to Utah that Fisher likely shouldn’t have been on an NBA roster anymore. From an athletic standpoint he had become the type of defensive liability that Steve Nash has been, without the offensive skill set. Yet he remained on rosters because of what he brought to the core of the locker room.

Now all eyes will be on what Fisher and Jackson can put together via free agency and the NBA Draft. Knicks fans should finally be hopeful for a bright future. Remember with Mike Woodson just a few seasons ago, this team catapulted to have a successful 50 plus win season.

The Knicks are on the clock and in a good way.

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All the movement that has been on going in college basketball this off-season involves more transactions than professional sports. Students now more than ever are bolting for new chances at different schools. While the upper echelon are able to leave early for the NBA draft, four year athletes have to consider what’s best for them. It’s a year to year evaluation. A lot more athletes are deciding to pursue a different school rather than play through their current situations.

It’s a move that continues to hurt college basketball. Rising transfers is only continuing and I don’t see it stopping anytime soon. This past season’s NCAA champion has a chance to be a legitimate contender again with NC State transfer Rodney Purvis eligible.

Looking around the college basketball horizon I truly believe 2015 will be the year a smaller school wins the NCAA tournament. In the past ten years we’ve seen the possibility teased of this happening. George Mason, VCU, and Butler have made magnificent runs before. The tease will finally come to fruition and I believe that VCU is going to be the team to do it.

Last year I was one that bashed VCU’s team on multiple occasions. Their frenetic play seemed a bit disorganized, especially on offense. While they would win their fair share of games with tenacious defense, they seemed to play like an NFL team powerhouse. Their defense would get the job done but offensively they would let teams back in just as easily. Quick shots and poorly ran sets offensively doomed them from being a better team than they were.

A past season can prove to be a booster going forth, and the stage is set for VCU.

Shaka Smart once again turned down the opportunity to head to a larger school to keep things going at VCU. Who could blame him? He seems comfortable there and has been able to recruit well.

The Rams did lose several key graduating seniors but by playing a nine man rotation, the Rams should be able to count on the experience learned by underclassmen a year ago. Including guard JeQuan Lewis who made the big blunder against Stephen F Austin by fouling a three point shooter to send the game into overtime via a four point play.

Other talented players include Melvin Johnson, Treveon Graham, and Jordan Burgess. This team once again will not have great interior length but teams have shown that is not needed to go deep and win an NCAA tournament. UConn just won the tournament off of sound defense mainly from their guards.

VCU has that top on the ball guard defender in Briante Weber. If he hones in his frenetic play in half court sets and improves his jump shot, he will make this VCU team even that more dangerous.

The returning talent is enough to get me to believe that VCU will be a solid top ten to fifteen team. Tags: 2015 ncaa preseason rankings, ncaa basketball early season tournaments, ncaa long shot winners, ncaa march madness odds 2015, ncaa odds for 2015 season, shaka smart 2015 school options, vcu odds to win ncaa title 2015, vcu rams final four odds Category: Basketball, Handicapping Comments (0)