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Tampa Bay has had one of the more brilliant runs in baseball. Based on the allotted spending they’ve had, they’ve been a strong AL contender year after year. Their system was in-house and built through a sound farm system. Joe Madden as the manager has created a yearly cycle of success.

But as what happened with the Mariners in the late 90’s, things are starting to turn. The cycle of in-house success can only last so long. Their success never came through the area of runs produced. Timely hits was more the norm, while their strength relied on the arms of their pitchers.

Signing David Price to a long term deal is looking like it may bite the Rays. Price has been hit at a high rate this year. Before when he came to the mound he was worthy of the -160 to -185 prices as a pitcher. In fact he was one of the few aces at that price that I would consider. Thus far on the season his era is over four runs.

With four wins and five losses, his ERA has been masked by a few quality starts this season. It’s shaping out to be the beginning of a downturn in Price’s career.

This leaves the Rays with Price’s hefty contract. This season he is making over 14 million a year. Other high priced players on the Rays roster are producing below their contract value as well. Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist are both making over 7 million this season. To say they’re falling short of those contract values is an understatement.

The Rays latest four game slide at home to the Marlins might be the dagger to a season that’s not even midway through June. They are last in the AL East and 15 games behind .500.

The uphill climb is one that the Rays aren’t going to reach. Steps forward that use to come from low margin wins, are replaced by their bullpens and starting pitchers woes.

This just may be the beginning as what happened to the Seattle Mariners after a solid mid to late 90’s run.

For now put the Rays on top of your MLB best bets. They’re still an attractive price by the books, as they’ve drawn a lot of winnings for bettors over the years. The market will be a bargain likely through August. Then just pick your spots, as I see the Rays staying right where they are at. Last in the AL East.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are still far behind in their division. Any chance at gaining ground will have to be done on a series by series and game by game basis. The Diamondbacks bats are going to be hit or miss throughout the season. They’re just too young of a lineup to be relied upon just yet.

Where strides have begun and where promise shows is with the Diamondbacks pitching staff. Bronson Arroyo was brought in for over 9 million this season. His struggles early on were well-documented. Later the Diamondbacks admitted they likely brought Arroyo back a bit too early from his spring training setback.

A veteran pitcher like Arroyo is able to withstand setbacks and that’s what he has done. In his last six starts he has only had one poor outing. That came against the St. Louis Rams in which he gave up five earned runs. All came on two-out hits which translated to the scoreboard.

His other five starts were marvelous. He has regained his command while keeping his walks down and strikeouts steady. When he is on the mound the Diamondbacks have a pitcher that can extend beyond five innings and keep their shaky bullpen at bay.

Another surprise has been Josh Collmenter. Collmenter has filled in admirably from the bullpen for bust Trevor Cahill. Collmenter does not have the durability to go beyond six innings, but he has been pitching to his strengths. Getting outs on low amounts of pitches and delivering on what the Diamondbacks need.

Arroyo has been a strong waiver wire pickup for those that were fortunate enough to get him. Collmenter should be an option as well in deeper leagues. His stint on a fantasy roster may not last the entire season, but manipulating the waiver wire to your advantage has to be a priority all season. Take advantage of Collmenter if you’re struggling in pitching.

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It’s amazing how in the corporate world a small change can uplift the morale. Any setting for that matter can go for the better. Change swings attitudes if guidance is seen to portray positivity. A few days ago the Arizona Diamondbacks brought on Tony LaRussa amidst a horrendous stretch of baseball.

A young team that had been stricken with no balance whatsoever, suddenly has struck together some wins. They defeated the Dodgers twice against Dan Haren and the highest paid pitcher in Clayton Kershaw. Both wins were done in unconventional ways from the Diamondbacks. Against Kershaw they lit him up and the Dodgers bullpen for 18 runs. Against Haren they did just enough with their bats, and relied on their bullpen. Two scenarios that have been unheard of in the first forty games of the season.

Two games of success is nothing to make you jump out of your seat, but the belief of a small pulse is there. The Diamondbacks are just 10.5 games back in their division. Just a year ago the Dodgers were also buried in the division with odds against them to win.

The Diamondbacks are suddenly getting reliable outings from veterans Bronson Arroyo and Josh Collmenter, while getting a good mix of quality starts from their youngsters. To further their success next up for the Diamondbacks will be to sure up their bullpen.

Should we expect this to be a short lived winning streak? Jobs are on the line on all teams, but the Diamondbacks have an increased job performance scrutinization. Each day players are being evaluated and that will only increase with LaRussa on board.

He has been a winner through all periods in the majors. You can expect him to rub off on this team in a positive way. Don’t be shocked to see this Diamondbacks team near or above .500 by All-Star break.

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Though the Texas Rangers have been decimated with early season injuries, it’s far too early in the season to write them off. They’re just a handful of games back of the Oakland A’s. The injury bug is bound to hit other teams as the Rangers re-ascend to health.

Today they play against the Toronto Blue Jays and pitcher RA Dickey. Toronto has been one of the streakiest teams in baseball thus far. Periods of great pitching got them wins when their bats were ice cold. Lately it’s been a reversal as their bats have been on fire, and pitching hasn’t been stellar but has been steady.

Dickey has been pitching much better in May than the horrendous results he delivered in April. The payout on this game isn’t as one-sided as many would think. The reason for that is Rangers pitcher, Nick Martinez, has been outstanding in relief outings this season. Getting a chance to start may be a recipe for a pitchers duel in Texas today.

With that being said I’ll take the veteran over the newbie today. Dickey should be able to keep his level of play rising and outduel Martinez. The first two to three innings may be silent on both sides, but the hot bats of the Blue Jays should propel Dickey to another win.

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Here is a free play video on tonight’s total between the Marlins and Giants.

Notjustagame Free Play Marlins/Giants from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.

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A few weeks ago I profiled the Marlins success pitching. In the article I stated you can capitalize on overs and playing betting against the Marlins over the course of the next few weeks. The obvious glaring statistic that everyone is on is the Marlins home vs away record. They’ve been dominant at home and awful on the road.

Though they’ve been losing on the road it has not prevented them from hitting the ball well. They have a solid nucleus of young players that can hit. The first few games in their current series against the Giants has seen runs galore from both teams. Facing Tim Lincecum tonight figures to be a reversal of their hot bats.

Finding value in baseball is how you make money over the course of the season. Lincecum is coming off of a gem game of two hit baseball in his last outing. Certainly people will be on the Giants and the under. I’ll stay away from a team pick in this one and go with the current trend and play the over.

Value currently is at +105 on this total. Tom Koehler is coming off a shaky outing against the Dodgers in which he lasted just 3 1/3. Base hits have been plentiful in the series. Both teams hit in double digits for base hits last night, and the night before saw the Giants hit twelve and the Marlins six.

Play the over early before it shifts to a non plus payout.