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Today oddmakers shifted the price on Mark Buerhle and the Toronto Blue Jays. The final number came in with Buerhle and the Blue Jays being a slight underdog. A lot of that pricing has to do with the Blue Jays woes on the road–having lost fourteen straight at New York.

After winning seven straight games in May, Buerhle lost his first two in June. One came in a rough outing against Baltimore and another was caused by a command issue against St. Louis. In the game against St. Louis he gave up five walks.

Starting off the year at 10-1, oddsmakers had no choice but to shift odds negatively on Buerhle’s side. Paying a high price for Buerhle’s dominating pitching is not the position you want to be in now. It’s something you should have been on a month ago.

Dominating veteran pitchers have not been something we have not seen in the past. It’s happened before and June can be a tricky month to bet for them. Typically you want to scout those games and wait until after the all star break.

If the pitcher shows signs of continued regression for the rest of June, you may see a bigger decline in July and August.

Since 2006, Buerhle has only had one season in which he had over 13 wins, and that was a 15 win season. The law of averages suggest it’s going to be a rough tumble for Buerhle over the next few months.

As his arm starts to wear and more hits occur, the pricing may just be right to bet a streak of games on the opposing team.

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For once in his career Carmelo Anthony needs to sit and truly evaluate his next decision. Even his decision to bolt Syracuse could be looked back upon as a move he could have waited on. His love for Syracuse has stayed strong even after only playing a season there. There is no doubt he could have returned and led Syracuse to another title the following year.

While in Denver things never really worked to plan. When his chance came to move on, he thought the world of joining the Knicks with Amare Stoudemire. The plan looked to be a great prospect until Stoudemire’s knees derailed any possible growth. New York than turned to too many aging veterans. Rasheed Wallace, Jason Kidd, and many others.

Last season the Knick’s were an eyesore to watch. Basically Carmelo’s entire NBA career he has been one of the few superstars that has had poor talent around him. Yes, superstars are supposed to make you better but they can’t burden a season’s worth of duress.

At age 30 now, Carmelo truly has to evaluate his next move. As much as he probably wants to leave New York, it is likely the best place for him to be. Young Tim Hardaway has shown some promise, and Shumpert seems fully recovered from his knee injury. Phil Jackson and Brian Shaw need to convince Melo the rest of the roster will be filled quickly.

Possible destinations that want to attract Melo just seem like a bad fit. Dallas and Houston would be horrible options. Dallas is at the end of the road with their superstar Dirk Nowitski and Houston system would only dampen Melo’s career. That just would not work with Melo, Harden, and Dwight.

Hopefully Melo takes the time to evaluate this decision 100 percent. It’ll likely be the last great stretch of his career. Trying to make it work in New York may be the best decision on the table.

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It’s always tough taking overs when the Mets and Padres are on the board. Both are two of the worst teams in baseball at producing runs. But today should be a prime opportunity to take advantage of a low run line. The Padres send Ian Kennedy to the mound and the Mets send Dice K.

The line is just 7 at -105. Dice K has actually shown some promise in his few starts out of the bullpen. But I’m not convinced that he is ready to detonate a horrific game. We saw all too often what his true value is as a pitcher last season.

Ian Kennedy has been a bright spot for the Padres, but he is another pitcher that tends to slide as the season wanes.

Easy winners are few and far between. Most bets you’ll have to sweat out into the later innings. Todays will be no different. Maybe if this line was 7.5 or 8 I would have stayed away.

But 7, leaves you the opportunity to push. I fully expect both pitchers to give up a minimum of three runs. That leaves the door open safely for at least a push. Both bullpens are solid but I’d take my chances on a sound half inning from either team late.

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Future odds in baseball tend to see little action until the playoffs are getting closer. The month of August usually signals the heaviest action. People that start wagering in June and even July are all about anticipation.

Of course the only reason to bet in these months on future odds is positioning. With most divisions still clumped together with little or no separation, no one truly knows who is going to hit the finish line stronger. This is your chance to stray from the typical division winners or favorites, and roll the dice a little with higher odds.

If that team ends up winning the division or wild card, than you have narrowed yourself down to the final eight teams in major league baseball. A lot will go into the playoffs like any other season, but at least you have considerable better odds now than what you would be offered then.

While money will likely pour on to teams that everyone expects to be in the race (Giants, Cardinals, Dodgers, Tigers, Athletics, etc), lets take a look at some teams that could be in the mix at long shot odds.

LA Angels World Series 15-1 and 7-1 AL Pennant
This team no one truly knows what they’re capable of doing. They brought in the high dollar free agents last year, but still haven’t seen anything matriculate. This year they’re a bit off the radar because they’ve had the injury bug. But do not count out this team. They’ve done it before and are being a bit overlooked because of their slow start.

Miami Marlins- World Series 100-1 and 45-1 Pennant
When the media bashes an organization consistently the public will never back them. Therefore, even when Jose Fernandez was healthy, the Marlins still weren’t attracting a penny on them in future odds. This team is cleverly put together similarly to their 1997 World Series. Their pitching took a steep decline with Fernandez out, but Alvarez, Koehler, and others are more than capable. Their strength for a post season run will ride with their young bats. They strike out a lot but our a very dangerous group lead by Giancarlo Stanton.

Boston Red Sox- World Series 30-1 and 13-1 Pennant
It’s far too early to write off a team, especially the defending champs. Clearly by the current future lines, oddsmakers are baiting the public to throw their money on the champs. It could be the type of odds and money coming in that backfires on the books once again. Think the NY Giants, Packers, Ravens, St. Louis Cardinals, UConn Huskies, and countless other talented teams that looked down and out in professional sports. The Red Sox have plenty to overcome, but our experienced enough to get their roller coaster heading back upward.

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It’s no secret that the Miami Marlins are a poor road team. As it stands they are currently 11-19 on the road. So a justified line against Texas today stands as a +130 dog. A solid price for an underdog of the Marlins caliber, and maybe too high to take the bait for a favorite in Texas.

This is the Marlins third away stand on their current trip. The first occurred in their home state of Florida. A series sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays. Their latest was a dreadful trip to Chicago in which they only won one game.

The young bats of the Marlins that were red hot against the Rays started to hit the wall. Several strikeouts occurred in that away stand.

The rest in between series should be enough to calm the minds of the young athletes of the Marlins. Tommy Koehler has stepped up as of late to take in the reigns for the Marlins as Fernandez went down and Hector Alvarez has returned.

Look for Koehler to pitch well tonight and the Marlins bats to come back to life.

If you’re looking for an underdog payout the Marlins are your best bet of the day.

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There is nothing better than getting a jump on the market before public and shark money sways a line. Tomorrow’s early advantage underdog I believe lies with the Boston Red Sox. The Sox have not been their best as of late, that included a ten game losing streak. But early season woes are expected in the long seasons of baseball.

Boston has been had their fair share of bumps in their seasons before, and been able to hit stride when it matters.

Facing Baltimore Monday, the Sox are underdogs on the road. Pitcher Jake Peavy takes the mound as a +117 dog versus the favorite in Bud Norris. Pin this matchup a few weeks ago and the line would probably have been -107 for Norris—much closer to even money.

Oddmaker’s have waned their typical value for Peavy and reversed it based on his last five starts. In those five games he has given up eight hits or more. Those aren’t the type of numbers you’d expect from a starting pitcher. The thinking has to be that Peavy is losing his command completely.

Veteran pitchers typically go through extreme rough patches before hunkering down. I believe that Peavy will turn things around, and this is the perfect matchup to do so.

Baltimore is coming off an emotional series against the Oakland A’s.

Their lineup is as streaky as it gets. Peavy has the craftiness to pitch around hits against this team as long as he keeps the ball inside the park. Another plus side is the Sox are hitting the ball well again to warrant run support for Peavy.

Expect the public and sharks to sway this line by midday tomorrow. Get on the value of this line early.