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When testing any future market tracking division leaders is typically not the way to go. Separation is only a few games from the second or even third place team. But analyzing a division for weaknesses and strengths can catapult that theory out the window.

In the NL East several teams have taken a free fall over the past month to eight weeks. Philadelphia and the Mets were never in serious consideration to make a run. Though both had flirted with mini win streaks in the month of July.

Miami has been a hot and cold team all season. After closing the division gap to five games they had a tough home stand against the Reds. They dropped three of four and now find themselves seven games back of the Nationals.

That leaves the Braves who are falling apart in an extreme way. Their woes started with a horrific home stand against the Miami Marlins. In that series they lost three of four. Now they’re on a six game losing streak that could have ended yesterday. With the bases loaded and no-outs, Atlanta could not muster a run across the plate.

In the NL, the Central is in a serious log jam. Four teams in the Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds are separated by just five games. Series upon series versus each other could make this division get a bit topsy-turvy.

In the NL West, the Dodgers are already heavily favored to contend for a World Series while the Giants have wondering eyes upon them. I would not have my money on either of these teams.

Washington is sitting at 10-1 and 4.5-5-1 to win the NL. I’ll discount the Braves, Phillies, and Mets. The only team with a shot if they somehow can pull it together are the Marlins. But that’s a stretch in itself. They’re more in position to make a run for the Wild Card than the division.

Put your money on the Nationals while people continue to pile money on teams that just pulled off trades. The Cardinals, A’s, Tigers, and usual flood of money on the Dodgers and Giants.

Washington has had one of the best balanced lineups countered with pitching since June. They’re not typically flashy in terms of the way they score their runs, but they find out a way to plate them across. Pitching wise they’re already boasted as a top five pitching staff.

Lay the money down now, as they have clear sailing to a division title.

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Tonight’s free play in major league baseball comes in the Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles. Currently the Mariners are +142 and still on the rise as bettors pour money on the Orioles. The reason for this rise is because the Mariners struggled mightily just a few days ago against Chen. They were only able to draw five hits and mustered zero runs.

That fact is the draw in, but the Mariners have a draw in themselves. Roenis Elias has shook off some dreadful starts in late June/early July. In his last two starts, including one against the Orioles he allowed just two runs in ten innings of work.

He isn’t able to go seven innings but a controlled outing is all the Mariners need. They’re offense has looked a bit better and should be able to produce off of Chen this time around.

This is an extremely valuable plus payout for Friday. Take the Mariners as close to the start of this game as you can.

There is also a premium play on the board going for $20. Click on today’s picks.

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Today’s free play comes in the Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals. For the Phillies it’s Cliff Lee that heads to the mound and for the Naitonals it’s Gio Gonzalez. The Nationals got the majority of their runs in a three game series against the Marlins in two innings, while the Phillies had their usual erratic series against the Mets.

Lee’s first two starts back from the DL have not fared well. He gave up twelve hits to the Giants in a loss and nine in his last start and loss to the Diamondbacks. To doubt Cliff Lee now would be a foolish bet.

The Nationals are struggling to hit the ball right now and have been relying on their aces and bullpen to protect small leads.

Money is on the over in this game, but I’ll take the under. Look for Lee to scatter his hits better in this one and for this game to sail two runs under the total of 7.

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Tuesday’s free play comes in the NL East. Under today’s picks is also today’s premium play of the Mets vs Phillies.

For the Phillies the slight bit of an upswing they showcased a few weeks ago has waned. They’ve been back to batting poorly and having erratic starts from their pitchers. One of the pitchers that has been consistent has been Cole Hamels.

Momentum though is on the Mets side. Their young pitching staff has been a bit of a secret in baseball because of their teams poor run support. Lately though the Mets have been able to combine hitting to runs.

Take the slight plus payout as the name in Cole Hamels attracts sports bettors eyes. On the field though Dillon Gee and the Mets will grab another win at home.

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Under today’s picks I have two premium plays available. For a free play selection we are going to look at the total in Diamondbacks and Cubs. Both of these teams are not offensive juggernauts, therefore the total lies at 7.5 runs. On the mound are two pitchers that have far exceeded pitching expectations.

Josh Collmenter came out of the bullpen to be a saving grace for the Diamondbacks. At stretches in May and early June he was there only reliable pitcher. Collmenter though does not have overpowering pitches or durability. He typically can pitch a maximum of six innings.

For the Cubs, Jake Arrieta has been pitching out of his mind. He has come close to a no hitter and had a fantastic June. He has been almost non hittable. Even though he gave up three runs in his last start it was off of just four hits.

Post All-Star breaks you’ll usually see pitching wane considerably. Mark Buerhle saw his digression before the break. I think you’ll start to see that with both Arrieta and Collmenter. Arrieta has assumed the role of Cubs dominant pitcher with the departure of Hammel and Samardzija. The mess in Arizona has been well-documented and needs no further elaboration.

Though you may have a hard time watching both the Cubs and Diamondbacks offense, sit back and wait for that half inning outbreak. This total will surpass 7.5.

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It’s back to the diamond on Friday. Teams are rested and ready to go. Which will have the strong impact post All-Star break? Bats or pitching? Based on the lines set for today, the books are counting on the bats. There’s a lot of high totals floating around today. Most are in the 7.5 to 8.5 range.

Focus for tonight’s free play comes in the Seattle Mariners vs LA Angels. Weaver heads to the mound for LA while Iwakuma does for Seattle. I’m focusing on the total tonight, which is 7.5. The over is +100 while the under is -120.

It’s a tale of two teams playing the opposite. Seattle has been winning when their pitching is solid because they are failing to produce runs. At home scoring runs has been even more of a struggle for the Mariners than on the road. LA on the other hand has had poor pitching that has been offset by high amounts of runs being produced.

I’ll put the momentum on the home town Mariners tonight. Iwakuma shook off mid June woes to finish the latter part of June and start to July strong. Weaver should be able to get out of any jams as Seattle has a hard time getting RISP. Take the under at -120 tonight.