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It’s not too often a line in baseball gets so skewed that it becomes an out of hand underdog. Today I believe that to be the case with the Marlins against the Reds. Johnny Cueto has been a dominant pitcher all season but also has had very little run support in games that he has started.

Just last week against the Marlins, Cueto had pitched 7 innings before the Marlins finally got things going in the top of the 8th with three runs.

Miami had some decent hits off of Cueto early in the game with a couple of doubles by Casey McGhee and Marcell Ozuna. They just couldn’t muster anything beyond the early innings.

Brad Hand for Miami has showcased to be a bright spot amidst the Marlins never ending issues with pitching. He should be able to pitch six solid innings against a Reds team that struggled to get hits and advance runners off of Brad Penny yesterday.

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It likely won’t get talked about in high regard, but Brad Penny’s performance tonight deserves to be the star of the night. A pitcher that seemingly only got another chance because the manager, Mike Redmond, was his catcher in the early 2000’s.

Penny hadn’t pitched since 2012 on the big league level and that was in a reliever role. It’s not often you see a pitcher get another chance after nearly two and a half years from a big league start.

His night wasn’t terrific, but he got the job done. In the first inning he gave up a solo home run that was right over the plate. He also got saved in a one out situation with runners on 2nd and 3rd. After a gap hit by Todd Frazier, Billy Hamilton scored with ease, but Jay Bruce was gunned out at the plate by outfielder Marcell Ozuna.

In the fourth Penny had a tough time drawing outs and was running the count too high for walk situations. The fifth he had a 1, 2, 3 inning in which would be his last of the night.

Credit this Marlins team for pulling together in a catastrophic situation with their pitchers. Everyone knows about Jose Fernandez being out for the year. The Marlins also have Henderson Alvarez on the 15-day DL, and their newly acquired pitcher in Jarred Cosart missed a start with a minor oblique strain.

Added to that was the scary situation of their relief pitcher in Dan Jennings getting drilled by the baseball. He seems to be okay but is not available for use currently.

This Marlins team has been resilient through many tough instances. In June and the early part of July they were in countless scenarios of extra inning games that they couldn’t pull off. If they had won only a handful of those they’d be near the top of the NL East.

We’ll see how far this team can go in the last stretch of the season. But tonight the star of MLB goes to Brad Penny.

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Yesterday both the Phillies and Mets had their half inning of explosion. The Mets scored four runs early on and the Phillies 3 in the bottom of the 9th. Those are the type of innings that drive total bettors crazy. Especially when it’s two teams that have shown to be struggling teams at the plate this season.

Today Dillon Gee and Cole Hamels head to the mound for their respective teams. The total is set at a modest 7 runs with the juice leaning on the over at -105. That’s where I’m headed with today’s free play.

Gee has been up and down over the last month. With as many times as the Mets and Phillies have played this season, you’d expect the Phils to have a solid green light on Gee’s pitches. In two starts this season against the Phillies, Gee, has given up three home runs. The latest outing was July 29th in which Gee gave up five runs and three walks. Over his last three starts he has struggled with his control. He has walked eight batters over those three starts and this while averaging just five innings on the mound.

Opposing pitcher Cole Hamels has been spectacular and is why he is a -165 favorite. But that’s too high of a price to pay on the Phillies. Hamels has had four consecutive great starts after a poor stretch of five games before the All-Star break.

Something happened for the better for Hamels during the All-Star break. But even with the great pitchers a poor outing is bound to happen.

The Phillies have had all types of issues with their pitching staff. Cliff Lee is back on the DL and they just traded Roberto Hernandez. That has to play some sort of psychological affect for this Phillies team.

This will be the fourth start this season for Hamels against the Mets. He was roughed up back in May for six runs, but in his last two starts he has only given up a run a piece.

Count on getting 3-5 runs from the Phillies off of Gee, and a run or two off their bullpen. Hamels has been going deep into games over his last four starts and I just don’t see him doing it a 5th time.

Play the over.

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Out in Atlanta a crucial series ensues between the Nationals and Braves. Atlanta will try to regain footing in the divisional race. Washington has been out in front towards the latter part of July and first week of August. This series is the calling card to if the Braves want to be in contention to win the NL East. A split or lone victory puts them too far back against a Nationals team that likely won’t lose to many remaining series this year.

With this much focus on a series, this should propel the bats to do well. Both lineups possess capable hitters. This total is far too low as far as I’m concerned. Yes, both have been strong aces this season but I do expect both to have a rough half inning tonight.

The juice is right in this one. Take the over

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Before the Reds Miami Marlins series they were in an extreme funk at the plate. Protecting their starting pitchers great outings could only be secure if the Reds gave up zero runs. Suddenly though wins the Reds have ignited at the plate.

They’ve won five of their last seven games and are doing so by producing runs. Against the Marlins they ended the series with a seven run finish. Against Cleveland they’ve had a game where they produced nine runs and eight.

One guy that has helped in this turn around has been Ryan Ludwick. He has had an RBI in four of the last six games for the Reds. Including a huge two run single against the Marlins. After a controversial run was overturned, the game was tied. That left runners on 2nd and 3rd and Ludwick took advantage to help propel the Reds to a win.

With key bats set to return soon in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips the Reds are in prime position to overtake the NL wild card race. Can Ludwick and the rest of the Reds keep their bats hot or will the July slump reemerge?

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For Wednesday were going to take a look at the Pirates and Marlins. The first game in their series was a dreadful six to seven innings to watch. Neither team could advance base runners and featured multiple double plays.

The game flipped when Pittsburgh’s bullpen entered the game with two on and one out in the top of the eighth. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been shaky all year and Miami took advantage of it. Two runs were walked in, along with a sac fly, single, and a double by Christian Yelich. Suddenly the Marlins had scored five runs and led 6-2.

I’m going to ignore that half inning tonight and focus on what these two teams have struggled with over the last week to week and a half. Hitting. Miami struggled in their series against the Reds, and Pittsburgh had an up and down series against the Diamondbacks.

Tom Koehler has had a couple of decent outings after an atrocious few starts in the early part of July.

Until Miami can break out and show they can put up runs multiple innings, unders should be a safe trend when they have a solid ace on the mound.

Take it tonight, as Locke and Koehler should prevent their respective bullpens from entering before the 7th.