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Just a little over a couple of weeks ago these two teams played in Memphis on TNT. It was a slower paced game that Memphis had full control of until midway through the fourth quarter. As Houston has done in numerous games this season, they were able to rally late and somehow cover. In that game they were heavier favorites on the road (-7.5) than they are at home tonight (-6). Of course at the time the Grizzlies were injury riddled playing without Marc Gasol.

The pace of that game would figure to get automatic heads to nod in favor of the over tonight. Instead look for the under to happen as it did a few weeks back. Memphis is going to slow things back down with Tayshaun Prince, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph all on the floor, and Houston has shown that they can slow things down if tempo is controlled by the other team.

A number close to 200 is too high in my estimation and a good number to take the under on.