Tips for Preseason Line Action
By Zack Cimini
Follow on Twitter @cimini
Preseason football action is officially upon us. There are rules in handicapping that must be followed for proper preparation of the regular season. If not you can find yourself in a hole already before the regular season even starts.
The point spread is not created as sharp as it would in the regular season, especially in the first two weeks of preseason action. These are scrimmages testing the depth of teams rosters. Each and every team is trying to squeeze out their roster planning by testing the second tier, third tier, and future practice squad athletes on their current roster. Keep in mind that change over amongst coaching staffs is being implemented on eight different teams.
A season in football is truly from July all the way until a teams playoff elimination or eventual Super Bowl champion. When you hear a post Super Bowl interview a lot of athletes will reflect on the struggles they endured as a team during that season. Success does not happen in preseason game number one. There will be those type of teams that go 1-3 or even 0-4 in the preseason, but will be a completely different team in September.
Here are a few quick tips to keep yourself from getting buried this preseason. Follow me on twitter @cimini and stay tuned for weekly articles here at winningedge.com
Regular Season Success-
Do not be the type that stares at a preseason line and assumes a teams regular season success is indicative of how they will perform in the preseason. The New Englands, Denver Broncos, 49ers, and other high-profiled teams are going to look like a shell of the team they represent in the regular season in the preseason. Coaches tail back their game plans in the preseason with a vanilla playbook. Some of the matchups in the preseason end up being an actual matchup in the regular season. In those matchups the high school playbook will be ever more glaring.
Scrimmages-
It’s called a preseason game but when it comes down to it, it is a scrimmage. Coaches are not going to speed up the offense for a miraculous second half or fourth quarter comeback if they’re down a considerable amount. More than likely they’re going to be angry and unsatisfied with their current depth charts and axe lower to the next athlete for a substitute. You have to analyze a preseason game for it’s entire totality of value. That requires extensive research into the backgrounds of the depth charts. The athlete that catches or throws a fourth quarter winning touchdown for you from the Carolina Panthers, might be a roster cut in two weeks.
One Week Wonders-
In the regular season fantasy football owners are use to hearing the term one week wonder. It has meaning to the preseason as well. A favorable matchup can present itself at any given time. Maybe a receiver that has had a tough time breaking the top three on the depth chart the last two years is having to battle for the fourth or fifth spot. In a certain preseason game he gets the matchup of a lifetime against an undrafted rookie in the third quarter that is ill-prepared to match the invested multi-year NFL player.
The receiver could have been on the field for a quarter and a half already, while the cornerback just stepped in and may only see six to eight minutes of true game action. If you’re looking at a stats box and have not truly broken down and analyzed the preseason game, you might think the wide receiver had flourished. The next week you inflate the athlete and team as a whole because of the fantasy numbers. I know you’re preparing and doing fantasy drafts in the month of August, but do not let it break into your psyche for preseason lines.
Roster Cuts-
That deadline is looming as soon as a team steps onto the field for preseason game one. Probe teams online newspaper sites to see which position and who are the candidates for potential roster cuts. See how this athlete has performed in prior big games in college, or in big moments on the football field. The athletes on the borderline of being cut are what make the preseason. Key in on these athletes. Sometimes it may not even be a roster cut potential athlete and may even be someone warranting a higher depth chart position with their preseason play.
Early Rust-
This can trickle over to the third and fourth preseason games, and stay in your mind the first few weeks of the regular season. Early rust is going to happen with some athletes. Maybe they came in a bit under conditioned and out of shape. You’re going to get a sample size of that athletes capabilities in the preseason games if they’re a starter. Do not let five or ten throws dictate how you believe they’re going to perform the following preseason game. Blaine Gabbert looked outstanding last preseason, and where did that lead him in the regular season. Stick to analyzing an entire roster and probing for how coaches are game planning to play a certain preseason game.
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