By Zack Cimini

 notjustagame23@gmail.com

As your numerous fantasy drafts of the summer come to a close, your probably strategizing even more for this last one. There hasn’t been too many affects injury wise, as in years past. There are some glaring holes at certain positions though, making it critical that you do not wait too long to draft a certain player.

One area that will have a down year comes at the quarterback position. The last few years owners may have become accustomed to the high yardage and multiple touchdown throws from a high amount of quarterbacks. You could plug in your second tier quarterbacks and get decent results. This year though should be different and shift back to years past.

There are too many quarterback changes around the league . Rookies in Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Second year starters in Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. Veterans that have struggled throughout their career but remain starters; Alex Smith, David Garrard, Tavaris Jackson, and Chad Henne. On top of those guys you have the erratic quarterbacks such as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, etc. that will drive fantasy owners crazy.

So unlike in prior years where we could and would wait to draft a quarterback late, this isn’t the year to do so. You do not want to have to rely on Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, or Jay Cutler as your starter. They’ve proven both sides of the spectrum from a fantasy standpoint. You have to secure yourself one of the top eight to ten quarterbacks, there are no buts about draft strategy to argue this.

Stock piling at running back like the glory days should be heightened. Coaches around the league are going to force feed the ball to their running backs. With decreased experience and snaps due to the lockout, quarterback play is going to be behind regardless of experience. Running the football is a skill that doesn’t require extensive snaps. It’s a skill you either have or you don’t.

Gems on the waiver wire at running back will surely be had. Do not be stuck in a situation where you are loaded at running back and have faulted at quarterback. You’re going to need those consistent points of a solid quarterback to get those decisive wins. It’ll be the difference in a couple of extra wins, or the lame excuse of if I started this player, I would have easily won.

Get on board the proper way. Analyze the market like stocks. It’s a bad year for quarterbacks, and they’re going to have plenty of growing pains. The tier of guys that could excel beyond expectations are young guys that we haven’t seen take that full next step. The Matt Staffords, Josh Freemans, and Sam Bradford. Some of you out there are going to risk it enough to have a jumbled mess at quarterback.

Don’t be like the Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, Bengals, Panthers, 49ers, and Redskins. In abysmal situations at quarterback and undecided with their situations.

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The lockout doesn’t halt leagues that are continuous, as is the case with dynasty leagues. Owners get to nag each other for an entire year. There is literally no off season. After the NFL Draft, that’s when things become even more interesting. Owners sense who they want with their projected rookie draft picks, and are willing to give up certain players. It’s all projection based, where the hit/miss can fall back hard just like an NFL teams busted pick.

Numerous trade offers are likely filling your inbox. As tempting as they may be, draft picks, multiple player deals, etc. Do not get too entangled that you get Atlanta Falcon’d. Remember you’ve built your team up over several years. The factor waiver wire athletes still pop up each year out of no where. Your key areas that you need help in, aren’t going to fall in place with one trade. Positioning yourself over a two to three year period like a true general manager does, can be the better route. Unless you absolutely outsmart an opposing owner, do not get to over zealous in making a move.

Here are some players that you can leverage well to boost your team, whether with draft picks or necessary depth.

Quarterbacks

Josh Freeman- Freeman is the new big deal. He had a breakout year and seems undaunted as an every week NFL starting quarterback. He developed last year with rookie wide receivers, and a running game that didn’t come on until undrafted rookie, LeGarrette Blount took the job. The Tampa Bay organization believes in him, and he has been a catalyst in many fourth quarter come backs.

Mark Sanchez- As the season progressed, the heat on Sanchez started to wane. Reason being, he was starting to look like a legitimate starting quarterback. He was making proper adjustments under pressure and reading defenses quicker than he had been. Was he just in a stretch of games that he was playing well, or has he transformed to the next step?

Kyle Orton- Rumors are surrounding that Orton could be dealt. to possibly the Arizona Cardinals. A scenario like that could make Orton a top seven to ten fantasy quarterback. What he did as a Bronco just last year, makes him a steady quarterback that a dynasty league owner could be looking for.

Running Backs

James Starks- With Starks you have a few positives that you can entice owners into falling for. He is on a Super Bowl winning team with the best quarterback in football. Towards the end of last season he became the dependable factor back. Even if Ryan Grant returns, he’ll likely be relegated in carries and for measures to protect his health.

Ahmad Bradshaw- The Giants had something clicking when Jacobs lost his full time carries, and Bradshaw took on the bulk. The only problem with Bradshaw is that his fumbles picked up past the midway point of the year. Still, the Giants did nothing in the draft to make you think that Bradshaw’s job will be threatened. Teams in dire need of a second running back on their team, would and will settle for Bradshaw.

Matt Forte- As a dynasty league owner hopefully you stuck it out with Forte, and didn’t trade him for nothing last off-season. Now Forte is back near the top in terms of his involvement with the Bears offense. Not many running backs will get the carries and receptions as Forte does. Will he be worn down or can Mike Martz utilize him even more?

Wide Receivers

Anquan Boldin- Boldin is a veteran but he will be entering just his second season as a Raven. Any time an athlete of Boldin’s caliber makes a switch of teams, it’s going to take time to readjust. Flacco and Boldin seemed to be hit/miss all season last year. If they were on, Boldin had a field day. If not, Boldin went MIA in the fantasy point total column. This year should be different, as Flacco should be much more consistent.

Marques Colston- Colston is a notch below where you would want him to be. Owners know he can be a strong force, but the numbers do not lie. The last three years he has been a number three fantasy receiver on most squads. Drew Brees is spreading the ball around much more, and it has hurt Colston. That, and the fact that Colston has battled through injuries and slowed down a tad. Extended rest through the lockout could boost a player like Colston. Proper rest, and reloading in the Saints offense, could produce Colston’s strongest numbers since 2007.

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Two weeks left to pick from a wide selection of NFL games. Not only are games on Thursday, but Saturday games will occur as well. This is the part of the year where teams that are out of the playoff picture can be unpredictable. You have to be cautious when looking at those matchups. On the other hand young teams that are out of the playoffs tend to finish the season strong to build towards next year. We’ve got a couple of those teams that are underdogs as our picks this weekend.

Overall Record: 115-107-4

Last Week’s Record: 7-9

Arizona +7- One thing about Arizona is that they have been a decent team at home. Were not saying that translates to a win, but covering seven will be a possibility. Dallas hasn’t looked as strong as they did during Jason Garrett’s first few games as interim coach. Instead they’ve reverted back to poor defense and special teams miscues.

Detroit +3.5- Detroit is one of those teams that is an exciting young team building forward. If Stafford hadn’t been out with injuries this team could of easily won six or seven games. Miami has all types of issues. Quarterback, Chad Henne has struggled all year and the offense can’t muster points. 3.7 yards per carry combined between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams isn’t going to cut it.

Philadelphia -14.5- We hate taking the bait of double digit points, but in this game we have too. Joe Webb will step back onto the field, and obviously isn’t ready for this type of situation. The defense just gave up over forty points to a Bears team that has been offensively challenged all year. We’ll bank on a Kevin Kolb appearance in this blowout.

Washington +7- Even with MJD being listed as out we still liked Washington in this game. Jacksonville’s been a team playing above their record for awhile. Sure they’ve managed to pull out some close wins, but they’re not a playoff caliber team. Too many holes defensively, and Garrard is a hot/cold quarterback.

San Francisco +2.5- The division will become interesting once the 49ers get this victory. Switching to Troy Smith this week was a smart move by Singletary. His legs and ability to extend the play will pose problems for the Rams defense. Over the last two to three games, Bradford seems to be entering a rookie slump period. The offense has had too many three and outs, and has lacked any spark via the pass.

Tampa Bay -6- Seattle just can’t slow down teams that have a top twenty rushing attack. Tampa Bay is borderline of that, but is coming of a devastating loss to the Lions. They won’t have two consecutive let downs. Raheem Morris is a well liked coach by the Bucs and his team will play to his standards this weekend.

New England -7.5- Buffalo covered a double digit spread earlier this year at New England. Home or away this Patriots team plays to the same beat. Their defense will respond after last week’s ripping by the Packers. The offense is never a question.

New York Jets +1- This is where the Rex Ryan defensive background will come to the fore front. All year the Bears have got away with the short route throws with no running game. That plays into the hands of the Jets. Jay Cutler is coming off a game where he actually threw some decent balls. If he gets pass happy this game could get ugly into the Jets favor.

Baltimore -3.5- You hate to lose that half point, but Baltimore has too repay this Browns team for what they did earlier in the season. Making a game of it when there shouldn’t have been a challenge. We believe this will be the game Baltimore clamps down defensively, after having a tough month.

Kansas City -5- Matt Cassel doesn’t throw the ball much every game, but when he does it’s usually a quality play. The team was out of sync the first quarter against the Rams, but started rolling off points with three consecutive drives for points. Tennessee’s beat down over the Texans was just a mirage. They’re a team embroiled with needs for change, while the Chiefs are looking at hosting a home playoff game.

Oakland +3- If you watched the Colts last week, once Collie exited with another concussion the offense lost all its rhythm. Manning just doesn’t have the chemistry with Blair White and others out there. Reggie Wayne is blanketed all day due to the fact that Dallas Clark is out. This will be a big upset as the Raiders will be able to run the football and put up points.

Denver +2.5- Yes, Tim Tebow will get his first win. Houston loves to try and dig themselves out of holes. Trailing big in more than a handful of games this year. This loss here could spell the end for Gary Kubiak.

Green Bay -3- The Packers are more than happy to have Rodgers back for this one, as they’ll have to air it out to win. This game won’t be a touchdown explosion affair that many would expect. It’ll have big plays but both defenses will be ready. Take the under in this one, and Green Bay pulling off a close win.

San Diego -7.5- Talk about another team that has decisions to make. Cincinnati has major ones. Quarterback Carson Palmer has had an awful season. At receiver they have an option for Chad Johnson, and likely have already parted ways with TO. It’s one of those games where the team steps onto the field and delivers a poor performance that symbolizes their entire year. Blowout city here.

Atlanta -2.5- This division is now Atlanta’s, and the NFC will have to figure out a way to end Matt Ryan’s phenomenal home streak in the playoffs. This team just wins at home, and they’ll get the season sweep over the Saints on Monday night.

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Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco – Flacco has been playing solid lately. He hasn’t put up huge numbers, but he also hasn’t thrown an interception since week 12. He threw two touchdown passes in the Baltimore Ravens’ 30-24 win over the New Orleans Saints in week 15, and he should have similar success against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

Sam Bradford – Bradford is going through a slump in which he’s thrown zero touchdowns and five interceptions in the last three games, but with the exception of a week 13 game against the Arizona Cardinals, those games have been against quality opponents in the New Orleans Saints and the Kansas City Chiefs. On Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers, Bradford should turn it around. The 49ers rank 25^th in pass defense, and Bradford has shown that he has the talent to be a great quarterback, so consider starting him on Sunday.

Don’t Do It: Eli Manning – After last weeks’ devastating loss, it might not be smart to play Manning. Also, he’s playing the Green Bay Packers’ defense, which ranks third in pass defense and first in points given up.

Running backs

Fred Jackson –Jackson only had 36 yards on 15 carries in a win against the Miami Dolphins last week, but he should have a big game against the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Patriots gave up 99 yards to Green Bay Packers’ running back Brandon Jackson last week. The Packers’ Jackson only averages 3.9 yards per carry this year, but had 4.5 yards per carry against the Patriots, so Fred could have opportunities for long runs.

Rashard Mendenhall – After rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown against the New York Jets in week 15, Mendenhall will probably do even better against the Carolina Panthers tonight. The Panthers are 23^rd in rushing defense and should give up plenty of big plays to Mendenhall.

Don’t Do It: Cedric Benson – Even though Benson is coming off of his best game of the year, a 150-yard, one-touchdown performance in a win against the Cleveland Browns, he should struggle on Sunday against the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers’ run defense is second in the league and hasn’t given up more than 40 rushing yards to an opposing running back since week 13, so you should bench Benson this week.

Receivers

Brandon Marshall – After struggling for several weeks, Marshall had 106 yards and a touchdown in a week 15 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Miami Dolphins play the Detroit Lions on Sunday, who have an average pass defense which ranks 13^th in the league, but are 21^st in yards given up. Look for Marshall to make some big plays on Sunday.

Dwayne Bowe – Bowe and the Kansas City Chiefs play the Tennessee Titans, who rank 26^th in pass defense. Bowe has 941 receiving yards, and should go over 1,000 Sunday against the Titans. He leads the league in receiving touchdowns with 14, and should add to that total as well.

Don’t Do It: Percy Harvin – The Minnesota Vikings’ play-making receiver caught the team’s only touchdown pass in a 40-14 loss to the Chicago Bears in week 15, but that pass was thrown by Brett Favre, who later suffered a concussion in the game. Harvin probably won’t get many looks on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles. If rookie Joe Webb starts at quarterback for the Vikings on Sunday, his lack of experience should cause him to have a tough day, which will make it difficult for Harvin to get you fantasy points.

Source for statistics: nfl.com

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Thursday football not only means fantasy football lineup submissions. It means brainstorming on that first game versus the spread. We’ve got week fourteen penned better than an Oprah book club nominee. Take a look at who we have with analysis on each pick.

Last Week’s Record: 7-9

Overall Record: 99-90-4

Indianapolis -3- As much as people want to see Manning lose and bring his woes up another level, everyone knows he is going to battle for this victory. As bad as the Colts issues have been, Tennessee’s is likely worse. They can’t get Chris Johnson back on track, and have switched quarterbacks more than the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland +4- Jacksonville’s played above their talent level all season long. They stay in games by controlling the ball, and limiting their turnovers. Oakland is riding high after their upset victory over the Chargers. Look for them to come out strong and force Jacksonville to get out of their slow attack.

Pittsburgh -8.5- We’re expecting a few defensive touchdowns in this one. Cincinnati is going to come out for the first few drives. Once those attempts don’t work, look for this team to pack it in. They have no heart and it’s showed all season. Blow out city.

New England -3- Tom Brady won’t have the ease of racing up and down the field as he did against the Jets. It’ll be a better battle. New England’s defense has to continue to show it’s growth in order for the Patriots to pull this one out. Yet, were taking the Patriots as they’ll win the turnover battle and make that extra big play.

Cleveland +1- Cleveland’s outing against Miami didn’t deserve a win, but they let the opposing team make the mistakes. This game has another sloppy outing written all over it. It’s been snowing like crazy in New York this week. Will see how the weather is on Sunday, but expect a low scoring punt fest here.

New York Giants- The line isn’t officially set here but the Giants are a playoff bound team. They’ve feasted on opposing quarterbacks with major weaknesses all season. There’s no doubt Brett Favre will start at the expense of the Vikings. He has nothing left out there but his streak.

Detroit +6.5- The Packers are the type of team that like to play close games. A lot of their wins they pull away at a point in the second half, but it takes awhile for them to get going. Detroit’s been hanging in all season against opposing teams. They’re ready for a signature statement win for 2010, and we think they’ll get it here.

Atlanta -7.5- This team wants to play at home in the playoffs. They’re not going to let a letdown happen against the Panthers to jeopardize that.

Washington +1.5-A team respects a coach that makes bold decisions. Shanahan did that by ending the tirade with Albert Haynesworth for the rest of this season. Washington’s had a rough go this past month, but is not nearly as bad as the team that took a butt kicking last week. Tampa Bay is reeling and we think they’ll have an after taste of last week’s crushing loss derail them.

St. Louis +9.5- There are people that keep saying the NFC West shouldn’t have representation in the playoffs. They’re not on national television much but St. Louis has played solid ball this year. Sam Bradford just doesn’t make mistakes. They have a few good drives a game and their defense has been a force.

Seattle +5.5- 13-10.….Which team wins, doesn’t matter. Seattle covers.

Miami +5.5- You can’t bet against the Dolphins on the road. It’s been a mistake all year as they just play better as a team. We all remember how Mark Sanchez ended last year on a tailspin almost costing the Jets a playoff spot. It won’t get that bad but Jets fans will be nervous in this one.

Denver– The difference in this game is one team has made a change. That’s Denver. The Cardinals have been horrific trying to move the football for five straight games.

Kansas City +6.5- Bettors can get ahead of the Chargers wagon jumpers now. Everyone’s betting on the fact that San Diego closes out years. Not this one, their play has been inconsistent due to numerous issues. The fact is Kansas City has played better this year, and will show it Sunday.

Philadelphia -3.5- Jason Garrett’s done this and that….yadda yadda yadda. How will he plan on disguising and blanketing against Mike Vick? He won’t. Then the game plan of running the ball twenty times each with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice will shift to air the ball. Everyone has seen when the Cowboys have been forced to throw they’ve struggled. With Dez Bryant out that spells double trouble, as he has been the only one to step up.

Baltimore -3- If Baltimore can get back to rushing the football, maybe they’ll get rolling again. Last year the Ravens rediscovered rushing the ball right about this time, and stormed over playoff opponents. Their play call to pass with three minutes to go just was atrocious. Watch them run and Ray Rice have his best game of the season.