Weekly Analysis

Andrew Luck Sweepstakes for the Colts?

Thursday, 8 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

News this afternoon of Peyton Manning under going a third neck surgery can not be good news for football enthusiasts. From Colts fans to dynasty league owners that thought they were excluded from needing depth because of his starts history. This has all possible not goods to it. It doesn’t sound good, the fact that he hasn’t been able to participate and hasn’t been cleared for anything, doesn’t look good.

If the Colts kept news of Manning being declared out for Sunday’s start until just a few days ago, then how long do you think they’ll let the real information linger? Lately former NFL experts have been more up front about the difficulties coming back from a neck injury. Steve Young, Howie Long, Sterling Sharpe, have all disclosed pertinent information on this. The main forthcoming notes is that each successive issue makes it harder and harder. This could be a career ender.

Being a quarterback you have to be even more concerned for Manning. It has to be treated with extreme caution similar to a player returning with a concussion. As Kordell Stewart stated Wednesday, all functions start from the head down. Even if Manning is able to return, there are many variables to consider. His age, the teams age, and the rust of Manning missing an extended period of time.

As far as 2011, Kerry Collins is the quarterback for now. Think of the last 40 year old starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Of course Brett Favre tops the most recent list. Then you can date back to Doug Flutie and Vinny Testaverde. As the season goes on, the body beating takes it’s toll on the delivery of the football. The proper reads they see, there arm is a tad bit slower in delivering the football. Throw out Favre’s 2009 season, and think of those quarterbacks out their on display.

This brings a hot topic to the front of discussion. With the season in jeopardy, how will the Colts front office manage the year? Will they try and sign veteran David Garrard to see if they can make a run? Manning for years made this average team above average. So quarterbacks that are on the cusp of average will expose this team all out. Defensive coordinators will finally be able to attack freely without worries of getting burned over the top or across the field.

Remember Kerry Collins had the Tennessee Titans off to an 0-6 start out the gate, and basically forced the Titans to start Vince Young. As bad as Young is and was, he managed to get the Titans on a win streak. The season is not looking bright, but being in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes is highly probable.

If Manning is out for the season, there is only the Seattle Seahawks that look like they would have a similar horrible record when the season ended. Even if some of the teams that are starting rookie quarterbacks end up towards the bottom of the NFL, they already have their signal caller for the upcoming years.

Wouldn’t that be something if the Colts were able to nab Luck, and Manning came back in 2012 fully recovered? Luck already showed patience in returning for his senior season, so sitting behind Manning would likely not be a problem. This would be awfully similar to what happened with the San Antonio Spurs. Aging veteran David Robinson was the heart and soul of the Spurs, and when he missed an entire season the team felt it 100%. Landing with the number one pick as a result, they built a formidable wall in the interior and Robinson had a wing man to dominate the paint.

Colts fans down right now have this other side of the spectrum to look at for the year, because it’s going to be an ugly one.

One Year Wonder at Quarterback?

Sunday, 4 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini

All around the locker room typically when a team has a poor season the fingers start pointing at the foundation at quarterback. For the Buffalo Bills last season it was the opposite. They were in the majority of their games because of surprising quarterback play from Ryan Fitzpatrick. He came into the season ranked near the bottom of fantasy quarterback rankings, only too become a fantastic waiver wire pickup and viable fill in starter for teams that were suffering at quarterback.

Gaining confidence from your organization is an ultimate psyche booster. The Alex Smtih treatment the Bills were giving to Trent Edwards finally came to a halt. When the Bills said they have their guy at quarterback as the season unfolded, and in the early off-season, it had to of given Ryan a tremendous boost. Especially this past draft, in which quarterbacks were selected like it was a quarterback sweepstakes in 1999.

Can Fitzpatrick lift his accuracy woes he displayed last year? He only completed 57% of his passes even though he was able to keep defenses off guard?

His rise did come out of no where, since he had opportunities with the Rams and Bengals and didn’t necessarily look like more than a career backup to say the least . The stint with the Rams included an impressive outing against the Houston Texans, but his outings as a Bengal in place of an injured Carson Palmer were awful.

No one could have anticipated Fitzpatrick throwing for eleven touchdowns in his first four starts of the season in 2010.

The I don’t believe it until I see it carried over until that fourth game last year against the Ravens. Fitzpatrick absolutely picked apart the Ravens secondary, with precision and daring throws. His rise led to the catapult of Stevie Johnson, who also shot up the waiver wire to become a more than viable starter. It was apparent that Johnson had become the go to guy, and by dealing Lee Evans, Bills management had must feel secure with Johnson as the number one wide receiver.

Subtract those four games from Fitzpatrick’s year and the year looks blindingly bad. He did not start the first two games, but from week eight on he only threw for multiple touchdown throws twice. There are certain variables that would lead you to believe the reasoning to that. Buffalo never had a consistent running game with CJ Spiller not showing first round pick value as a rookie. Also his decline coincided with the Buffalo winter.

At 28 though, Fitzpatrick is now a capable veteran. Look for him to be the same hot potato type fantasy quarterback as last year. You’ll likely miss out on the four touchdown games, but he will serve his purpose as being a solid fantasy backup quarterback. A bye week filler and worst case injury fill in. Do we see Fitzpatrick throwing for 23 touchdowns in 2011? Maybe not that high. The Bills should get some sort of running game going, that should cut Fitzpatrick’s red zone touchdowns a tad.

Sleeper Running Backs

Saturday, 3 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

There’s nothing like nabbing a late round pick or middle round pick that turns out to be a true gem. Last year Arian Foster and Brandon Lloyd were the top of the pack in their positions for overturned value. Lloyd, had faded into a special teams athlete for a few years, and was sort of written off. No one really knew how Houston’s backfield would shape up. Most thought it would be running back by committee. When Ben Tate went down though, it really opened up things for Foster as the lone back. The rest is 2010 fantasy history.

Of course the number one reason for opportunity is typically injury. Watchout for Beanie Wells having a significant year compared to projections. No longer is he in the shadow or worrisome of Tim Hightower. Ryan Williams was supposed to be that threat, but went down to a season ending injury in week two of the preseason. LaRod Stephens-Howling is a scatback type, but won’t get more than five carries a game.

We have a few guys listed below that will likely get drafted in deeper leagues. Keep them stashed on your bench, as opportunity could come your way for these young athletes.

Delone Carter:

He was never exceptionally flashy at Syracuse, but he piled up a solid career. His nature of running the football isn’t going to benefit him for a long career, but his first five should be decent. He is an in between tackles runner, that is going to carry defenders and fall forward for extra yards. With Indianapolis getting impatient with former first round pick Donald Brown, and Addai’s injury struggles, Carter could be the main back by mid-season.

CJ Spiller:

After an extremely disappointing rookie year, Spiller has a lot to prove. He wasn’t supposed to just be a special teams force. The Bills spent a first round pick on him, and were willing to part with Marshawn Lynch. The backfield remains the same, meaning the Bills haven’t given up on Spiller yet. Look for Spiller to make more of his carries this year as he tries to gain back coaches trust. The Bills have likely got the cheapest backfield in the NFL.

Rashard Jennings:

When will the bowling ball, fade into the gutter lane? Maurice Jones-Drew has been able to sustain the hits even at his small stature. The reason is because of his tremendous sized thighs and quads. Yet, it hasn’t staved off soreness and minor injuries for Drew. He has fought through them somehow, but the message in Jacksonville seems to be a new change coming. Jennings has slowly gained carries from Drew. If the opportunity presents itself, Jennings has shown that he can get the job done.

Roy Helu:

Everyone has been ranting and raving over Tim Hightower. He is the perfect back to run the zone blocking scheme, etc. Hightower has had a dandy preseason, but what will happen when teams actually game plan against the Redskins? They’ll get after their main weakness, which is at quarterback. Once that happens, the holes will clog up. Hightower is a breakaway runner, not a slasher in between the tackles. His main issue will pop up again, as they have year after year. Fumble prone. It just doesn’t alleviate a running back. Shanahan is an impatient coach, and Helu has been just as impressive in the preseason.

Ben Tate:

There really is no reason too elaborate here. Tate has been a monster in the preseason and if it weren’t for Foster, would instantly shoot up to a top ten fantasy running back. Good luck to the rest of the NFL on shutting the two down.

Jacquizz Rodgers:

The mileage on Michael Turner’s legs is in need of a Ricky Williams hiatus to refuel. The pattern of backs being over ran and tanking is predictable. Turner might have a year left in him before he fades like Larry Johnson. Rodgers can fit the old mold the Falcons were accustomed to with Warrick Dunn. A small back, but one that can carry the load twelve to fifteen times a game.

Back To The Year of the Running Backs

Friday, 2 September, 2011

 

By Zack Cimini

 notjustagame23@gmail.com

As your numerous fantasy drafts of the summer come to a close, your probably strategizing even more for this last one. There hasn’t been too many affects injury wise, as in years past. There are some glaring holes at certain positions though, making it critical that you do not wait too long to draft a certain player.

One area that will have a down year comes at the quarterback position. The last few years owners may have become accustomed to the high yardage and multiple touchdown throws from a high amount of quarterbacks. You could plug in your second tier quarterbacks and get decent results. This year though should be different and shift back to years past.

There are too many quarterback changes around the league . Rookies in Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Second year starters in Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. Veterans that have struggled throughout their career but remain starters; Alex Smith, David Garrard, Tavaris Jackson, and Chad Henne. On top of those guys you have the erratic quarterbacks such as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, etc. that will drive fantasy owners crazy.

So unlike in prior years where we could and would wait to draft a quarterback late, this isn’t the year to do so. You do not want to have to rely on Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, or Jay Cutler as your starter. They’ve proven both sides of the spectrum from a fantasy standpoint. You have to secure yourself one of the top eight to ten quarterbacks, there are no buts about draft strategy to argue this.

Stock piling at running back like the glory days should be heightened. Coaches around the league are going to force feed the ball to their running backs. With decreased experience and snaps due to the lockout, quarterback play is going to be behind regardless of experience. Running the football is a skill that doesn’t require extensive snaps. It’s a skill you either have or you don’t.

Gems on the waiver wire at running back will surely be had. Do not be stuck in a situation where you are loaded at running back and have faulted at quarterback. You’re going to need those consistent points of a solid quarterback to get those decisive wins. It’ll be the difference in a couple of extra wins, or the lame excuse of if I started this player, I would have easily won.

Get on board the proper way. Analyze the market like stocks. It’s a bad year for quarterbacks, and they’re going to have plenty of growing pains. The tier of guys that could excel beyond expectations are young guys that we haven’t seen take that full next step. The Matt Staffords, Josh Freemans, and Sam Bradford. Some of you out there are going to risk it enough to have a jumbled mess at quarterback.

Don’t be like the Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, Bengals, Panthers, 49ers, and Redskins. In abysmal situations at quarterback and undecided with their situations.

Who Will Free Up Fitz?

Tuesday, 23 August, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

For once the Cardinals front office did something they tend to never do. Sign a marquee player that was an original draftee. Time and time again the Cardinals would let a player walk instead of electing to fork up the millions. There were likely other variables to the Cardinals not resigning anyone. Including the top fact that they were a bottom cellar team for years that players wanted to bolt from.

There were only a handful of players that could be linked back to the Cardinals from the 1990’s. David Boston because of a steroid scandal and monstrous statistical year. Jake Plummer because he actually led the Cardinals to a playoff victory, but was a roller coaster pocket passer. Aeneas Williams and Larry Centers are two guys that actually stayed with the team for quite some time and had individual success. Pat Tillman goes without any elaboration.

This team has seen its ups and downs. When the team ultimately decided not to renew Anquan Boldin, many fans figured this was the same old Cardinals front office. In this short off-season, they also let Steve Breaston walk from his expired rookie contract. So now two of the three Cardinals receivers that Kurt Warner counted on were gone.

In comes new quarterback Kevin Kolb who luckily had been training most of the summer with Larry Fitzgerald. Something finally clicked in the Cardinals front office when they leashed out millions on Kolb. He is a young quarterback with many years in front of him. Why not give him a premier receiver to throw to for an x amount of years. Eight years, and $120 million later the Cardinals took care of business before it got ugly.

Fitzgerald had the right to walk without being labeled with the franchise tag. A poor sixteen games with a new quarterback, and maybe Fitzgerald’s mind wanes and looks elsewhere. Now if that happens, the hard worker in Fitzgerald will have Kolb on speed dial to get things better in the off-season. Scenarios that probably won’t be as drastic as mentioned, but if you’re a GM those are things you need to think about.

Two pieces are put together, and they are two very big ones. Behind Fitz though there will be some no name young athletes. Which ones will step up and be relied upon for fantasy football teams?

Looking at the Cardinals roster, you can see where the shift of salary at wide receiver lies. Right at the top. Not much is coming out of the wallets of the Bidwells behind Fitzgerald. Factor in Todd Heap as a significant upgrade at tight end to what fans have been accustomed to the last fifteen years.

Chansi Stuckey has been written off and right now is drifting from team to team as a special teams player. Spread formations will likely be ran by the Cardinals, and the two that will be in should be Early Doucet and Andre Roberts. Doucet is the more experience and has been working behind Fitz and Boldin for years. He has the frame of Boldin, but has been too inconsistent.

If he drops the ball, look for Andre Roberts to slip past Doucet. Roberts had a decent rookie season, and has electrifying speed. For the quarterbacks Roberts had last year, you could say he had an above expectations type of year. Unless you’re in deep leagues, both Roberts and Doucet could end up undrafted. We like Roberts as a better option as the season extends, and for a bigger fantasy impact.

Ricky a Raven

Tuesday, 9 August, 2011

By Zack Cimini

 notjustagame23@gmail.com

It’s always hard to tell what you’re going to get from a veteran signing a short term deal. A new location, reduced role, and a body that has taken a toll over the years. Down in Miami, the case of building forward with veteran running backs likely went on a year too long. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gave the Dolphins solid years, but neither was a capable every down back a year ago. It ultimately put more pressure on Chad Henne, who wasn’t ready for the heightened role.

Miami did the right thing this off-season, by letting both Brown and Williams go as free agents. Both went to teams that are hoping to be right on the door steps of a possible Super Bowl run. Will Ricky Williams be a guy that can contribute as a complement to Ray Rice?

First think of the back that Ricky Williams is stepping in to replace. That would be Willis McGahee. McGahee also endured a solid tenure as a Raven. For all the times the Ravens thought about cutting or trading him, he brought toughness to the field each and every week. He became a battering back, that was as reliable as any as a short yardage plunge type back. He racked up enough touchdowns that many fantasy owners believed reduced Ray Rice’s value by a few spots.

Remember Williams has played the second back role for many years now. He is a 34 year old back, with the legs of a 30 year old in running back years. That is if you factor in the time he missed with suspensions and injuries. When he came back as a Dolphin, he split carries with Ronnie Brown. When Brown went down in 2009, Williams showed that he still can be counted on for a sixteen game season. Rushing for 1000 yards for the first time since 2003.

Williams is a guy though that has had issues in the past. Will a new environment affect his psyche? Possibly. Going to a team that is already veteran laden should help though. He also should feel pressure free. Ray Rice is going to garner a ton of carries and Williams will likely get the least amount of carries he has ever had in a full season.

Is he worth drafting as a fantasy back? Any backup running back is worth drafting just for insurance purposes. Handcuffing a first round pick such as Ray Rice could be the difference in you missing out of the playoffs. Williams likely won’t be a fantasy factor for 2/3 of the games he plays in this season. But an injury or a game in which the Ravens are blowing out an opponent could produce those four to five games that Williams is fantasy relevant. So yes, take Williams late as your fifth back if you can.