Weekly Analysis

What’s Wrong With Rivers?

Wednesday, 28 September, 2011

 

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

San Diego has managed to pull off some close wins to start the season, but it hasn’t been for the play of Philip Rivers. The team has played just well enough as a whole, or they could easily be 0-3. The 2-1 start looks good on paper, but if proper adjustments do not happen this team could slide. Typical to their poor starts, it might be a reverse finish when they usually start to win.

 

Rivers just has not found that classic rhythm of his. There could be a few variables to blame for it, but Rivers is supposed to be a top tier quarterback. Four touchdowns and six interceptions would rank him near the bottom of the league. He is forcing too many throws. Throws that he has been able to thread throughout his career just aren’t getting there.

 

With the Chargers running the ball more effectively, maybe they’ll tone down his throws a tad. Antonio Gates is still hurting, and maybe the lack of a steady receiver over the middle is hurting Rivers. Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Jackson both do most of their damage down the field, using their tall frames to shield, leap, and out jump cornerbacks.

 

Patrick Crayton just isn’t the receiver he use to be and is clearer declining. The loss of Legedu Naanee seems to be hurting the Chargers more than anticipated. This early funk will not phase Rivers. For fantasy owners that see rookie quarterbacks and Ryan Fitzpatrick posting better numbers, should not over panic for a trade. Likely you were able to get one of those quarterbacks to either backup Rivers via the waiver wire or through the draft.

 

Give Rivers another couple of games to prove his value. His career speaks for itself. Patterns of having history with turnovers has never been a prevalent issue. He’ll hone it down and reemerge as one of the better fantasy quarterbacks. Finishing strong is second nature to him, but has that caught up to him?

Contrarian False Starts

Friday, 23 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Hut, hut,…..errrrr, penalties on the field typically result in a do over from a further distance. For fantasy owners there are no retries from deciding on that wrong player. A false start in fantasy means a poor outing and lots of pouting and jabbing. “Man I would of destroyed you look at my bench”. While you’re crying a river over the fantasy points buried on your bench, the opposing team has a breakout performance from their third receiver that you never would have started.

It’s not always how your team looks on paper. Drafting a perfect team is just not feasible. Often it’s the owners that reassess their weaknesses and upgrade via trades, waiver wire, and contrarian starts. It’s the law of averages with even the best athletes. It’s a sixteen game season and their just isn’t any position player that’s going to be lights out every week.

Here are some players that are either undervalued or I believe are due for a let down.

Rob Gronkowski- Contrarian View- Sit
The meter of discussion on Gronkowski has hit an all time high. Brady has hit his tight ends with such frequency, that owners are salivating at what Gronkowski will do without Hernandez. The two on the field together were able to attack defenses similar to a basketball team with a dynamic backcourt. Without the other things might not go as smooth.

Antonio Gates- Contrarian View-Start (Ignore last week and injury report)
I’ve got a reverse feeling for Gates. Rumors are circulating that Gates is hampered again by the same foot that kept him out a few years ago. Gates is a tough son of a gun, that finds a way to break out when least expected. After being shut down last week, you can better believe Gates will be factored in frequently this week.

Tony Gonzalez- Contrarian View- Sit
Sometimes old veterans will come out the gate with a flurry of solid games. LT did so last year, and faded quicker than Luke McCown’s starting job in Jacksonville. Last season he had seven games below thirty yards receiving. His success this year has largely been for the fact that Roddy White has been doubled, and Matt Ryan hasn’t developed with first year starter Julio Jones. Calm down on believing that Gonzalez is going to reemerge suddenly. He is a touchdown tight end, that’s it.

Brandon Pettigrew- Contrarian View- Start
Points, points, and more points have the Detroit scoreboard operator asking for a raise. After years of hardly working, he/she is probably having malfunctioning issues on getting the board to update so quickly. Owners have been disappointed in Pettigrew for his lackluster results, but it is way too early to think about removing him from starting consideration. Though Tony Scheffler has caught a few touchdowns with downfield routes, Pettigrew will get his shine sooner or later. With the rate that the Lions are scoring, Pettigrew will be a red zone factor anytime. Look for a decent game this weekend.

Shonn Greene- Contrarian View- Start
His first two games make you shake your head. He is the feature back for a team that is geared to make another deep postseason run. He has shown the skills every post season that he can be a dominant fantasy back. Yet the regular season has started off similar to the results of the past two. Unlike last year the Jets do not have fresh LT legs to rely on. Greene is their guy, and will have to bust out sooner or later. Fred Jackson had a field day last week vs. the Raiders, and is a similar back to Greene. Look for Greene to be a top five fantasy back this weekend.

Tony Romo- Contrarian View-Sit
The Redskins are Romo’s weakness over his career against them. With the infatuation over his outing last week, you have to ignore that and look at the present details. Romo will likely start, but is obviously still not 100 percent. The Cowboys receivers are dinged up as well, and will have to rely heavily on non starting receivers. Pressure on Romo and improper timing with receivers he isn’t use to, could be the cause and effect of a bad outing. Over his last four starts vs. the Redskins, Romo has averaged just 230 yards passing with a total of four touchdowns and four interceptions.

Cam Newton- Contrarian View-Sit
If you think of the pace of the first two games Newton played in, they were hectic freelance style games. Newton had the opportunities to throw for the yards he did, because both teams were dictating a pass over run game. Green Bay ran the football basically fifteen times, discounting Rodgers five scrambles. Arizona ran the ball about twenty times week one. That’s just the opposing teams. Carolina has abandoned the run all together the first two games. Jacksonville is one of the top teams in the league at attempts rushing per game. I could envision a heavy dosage of carries for both Jones-Drew and Karim to try and protect first day starter Blaine Gabbert.

NFL: Tall Targets, Lob It Up

Thursday, 22 September, 2011

By Vidur Malik
notjustagame23@gmail.com

As the NFL becomes more and more of a pass-first league, the wide receivers that catch most of those passes are becoming even more crucial to a team’s success.

Smaller, quicker wideouts like Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson have risen to the elite level at the position, but no matter how the game evolves, height at the wide receiver spot will always be a valuable weapon.

Big receivers have always been sought after for what they can bring to a team. Receivers like Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall have been atop the leader board for wide receivers for several years now, and their combination of height and tremendous athleticism is what keeps them there.

The most obvious advantage for tall receivers is that they tower over the defensive backs who must cover them. This makes them bigger targets for quarterbacks, giving the passer some room for error: if Philip Rivers is throwing to Jackson, he doesn’t need to put the ball on them money every time because chances are Jackson can use his physical advantage to outmuscle a defender and come up with the ball.

If big receivers can combine their size with route-running ability, they can get open anytime and make up for any lack of speed they might have. Because their game is not based on speed, big receivers can stay productive for a long time. Plaxico Burress is the perfect example. Though he spent two years away from the game, he has picked up right where he left off so far. Even though he had to adjust to a new team during the lockout, Burress has still been able to catch four passes, including one for a touchdown, through two games with the New York Jets.

From a fantasy standpoint, big receivers are great pickups. As ideal red zone targets, they can get you touchdowns, and their size allows them to break tackles and gain extra yards after the catch, which will get you more points.

Johnson, Jackson and Marshall will already be on teams in your league, but there are other big receivers that you can probably still pick up. The San Diego Chargers’ Malcolm Floyd might be available in your league, and you might want to consider Roy Williams of the Chicago Bears if he can get healthy soon after hurting his groin in week one.

Big receivers will always be crucial to a team’s success through the air. Teams can get by without them, but when you’re in the red zone and need a touchdown, chances are a tall, strong target will have a better shot at getting you six points than a small slot receiver. Let that natural advantage benefit your team, and consider picking up a tall target if you don’t already have one.

Week Three: Scat Back/Return Specialist Impact

Wednesday, 21 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

More and more teams have that do it all role player, aka Kordell Stewart. Not nearly as many throws behind center as Stewart. Instead teams find a way to get their speedster home run threat involved not only in special teams but in some fashion as a receiver/pass catching running back. This role has expanded exponentially over the years. Some fantasy leagues offer points based on return yards. So if your league does why not get the bonus points of athletes that get involved in their teams offense as well?

Every three to four weeks I will update rankings on this rising fantasy impact area. Expect Jacoby Ford to get in this ranking when he comes back fully healthy.

1. Darren Sproles- He replaced Reggie Bush and seems to be an upgrade. He already has made a return for a touchdown, and is stretching out defenses with his speed in the open field.

2. Percy Harvin- Minnesota is doing all they can to involve Harvin at a higher rate than in years past. I’d like to see that carry over to a big day catching the ball soon. The short routes is not what Harvin excels at.

3. Dexter McCluster- McCluster is going to be a high target now that Jamaal Charles is out for the season. Leagues that offer return yards should already have McCluster on someones roster. Now you’ll get extra bonus points with McCluster who will get increased reps, and become a PPR monster to dink and dump captain Matt Cassel

4. Preston Parker- Quietly Parker is putting together one of the best sleeper fantasy seasons thus far. It is early but he returns both punts and kicks, and has become a high target of Josh Freeman’s.

5. Antonio Brown- Brown could get the top spot a few weeks from now. He is being targeted by Roethlisberger a bunch, including nine times last Sunday. Though he only caught four balls, it is intriguing to see his on field work increase.

6. Reggie Bush- One limited touch week and the media wants to blast Reggie Bush once again. Miami did not pay him the amount they did to limit him weekly. He’ll get his touches and have his best season statistically as a pro.

7. DejI Karim- Jacksonville has two positives for Karim’s fantasy value. They’re going to pound the football to try and keep the ball out of their horrible starting quarterbacks hands. And they’re going to be down a ton in many games, which means extra opportunites for returns from Karim.

8. Randall Cob- He’ll dot the fantasy scatter charts on and up and down basis. Don’t be surprised to see Cob get three to four touchdowns on returns this season.

9. Johnny Knox- I do not believe Roy Williams will be a factor the entire season. Look for the Bears to keep Knox involved for the comfort of Jay Cutler.

10. Josh Cribbs- Kind of a forgotten lost athlete in Cleveland, Cribbs was one of the few main contributing return fantasy impact guys a few years ago. Cleveland is working hard on developing him as a receiver. Last week he had forty yards receiving, but just has never shown value from a yardage/touchdown standpoint. The fact that he returns both punts and kickoffs heightens his specialist impact.

11. Devin Hester- He can run the Pierre Garcon routes, but problem is the Bears offensive line will never be able to protect Cutler long enough to deliver the ball.

12. CJ Spiller- Spiller finally showed some flashes rushing the ball with sixty yards Sunday. Thus far he isn’t close to being the first round talent the Bills thought they had. With Fred Jackson firmly as the number one back, Spiller can either make the most of his five to seven carries, or pout as the return specialist.

13. Davone Bess- Miami’s special teams has never been great. Bess can be counted on to get a ten to fifteen yard punt return here and there. His value is where he was drafted in fantasy leagues, at receiver.

14. Ted Ginn Jr.- The former ninth pick by Miami has been the best return man in football over the last few seasons. With injuries to Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree, Ginn got some action at receiver vs. Dallas, and will likely continue to do so. It’s a skill set that just doesn’t depart a talent as Ginn was at Ohio St. Maybe he’ll finally blossom with the Niners.

15. Jacoby Jones- Kevin Walters will likely retake his starting role from Jones. In the first two weeks Jones sure hasn’t shown that he has earned the nod.

16. Leon Washington- Washington’s nearing the end of a solid career. Injuries and being on a poor team derail his fantasy value.

17. Brad Smith
The Bills will work in Smith slowly. Running the wildcat with CJ Spiller in certain packages will improve as the season goes on. His first pass attempt this past Sunday did not go too well, as it was intercepted.

Over/Under on Games Mike Vick Plays In?

Friday, 16 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

The mega contract and all world 2010 season is what intrigued many fantasy owners to draft Vick highly. He admitted that he never worked on the little things or diving into his playbooks while an Atlanta Falcon. Throughout his entire time there he made plays based on his raw abilities. After being a wildcat down player in 2009, it was unclear whether Vick could or would be able to get back to the level of his pre-jail days.

Once Vick stepped in and electrified during Kevin Kolb’s absence, it was apparent he still had his legs left. The work ethic and drive to finally attack and fine tune his pocket presence and proper reads started to show dividends. He always had a cannon of an arm but laser throws would sail wide, high, or inaccurately to the ground. Those type of mistakes pop up now and again but not anywhere near the extremes they use to be.

With his demeanor and his play on the field, Vick has completed a 360 in life and in his profession. How that carries over during the tenure of his contact, will either create a lasting legacy or an end to a promising talent. Vick’s health will likely be the main issue if Vick can get it done or not.

Lets point out the facts. Mike Vick is 31 and has always never been a big bulky quarterback like most in the NFL. He is only 6’0 and is listed at 215, which I find questionable. His style of play has advanced but hasn’t changed over his career. His speed, nimbleness, and shiftiness is still there. That has resulted in some, “how did he do that” type of runs, and also some crushing blows upon impact from defenders.

He has got a lot better at recognizing when to slide and avoid unnecessary hits upon getting adequate yards with his legs. If it isn’t one issue with getting hit, it’s the other. Teams know the glaring weakness with the Eagles is their front line, and they aren’t afraid to send attacking blitzes to disrupt Vick. Ignoring his speed, they’re coming from all angles to cut the lanes of Vick’s scrambling away.

In week one alone, Vick was hit and hurried numerous times vs. the St. Louis Rams. Way too many for a signal caller that you want to lead you to a championship. With the hits piling up, it is going to affect in other areas of his passing game. Completions will decline. In week one he threw for less than fifty percent. Often balls were just rushed because he could not get that extra half second to step into his throw.

One of his strengths is the deep ball, and he has two great receivers to stretch the field. That requires an extra few seconds to let the play develop. Will Vick get flustered when plays don’t go according to plan on a consistent basis because of the offensive line constantly breaking down? We all saw in preseason that he made some poor reads just to get read of the ball.

Most importantly out of all of this, is the fact that Vick has been injury prone throughout his career. Last year it was his ribs, and in prior years it was a plethora of things. Keep in mind that this will be the first season Mike Vick tries to play a full sixteen games since the year 2006. That was a 26 year old Mike Vick.

Fantasy owners should not be laughing too hard at buddies that drafted Peyton Manning or were trapped in their dynasty leagues. More than likely at some point this year, you’re going to have to start your backup fantasy quarterback. Hopefully it’s not for an extended amount of games, but even one game could derail you from getting a playoff seed. Just like head coaches have to prepare for the worst, my advice is to do the same with Vick. Ensure you get a quality insurance quarterback for a just in case scenario.

Andrew Luck Sweepstakes for the Colts?

Thursday, 8 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

News this afternoon of Peyton Manning under going a third neck surgery can not be good news for football enthusiasts. From Colts fans to dynasty league owners that thought they were excluded from needing depth because of his starts history. This has all possible not goods to it. It doesn’t sound good, the fact that he hasn’t been able to participate and hasn’t been cleared for anything, doesn’t look good.

If the Colts kept news of Manning being declared out for Sunday’s start until just a few days ago, then how long do you think they’ll let the real information linger? Lately former NFL experts have been more up front about the difficulties coming back from a neck injury. Steve Young, Howie Long, Sterling Sharpe, have all disclosed pertinent information on this. The main forthcoming notes is that each successive issue makes it harder and harder. This could be a career ender.

Being a quarterback you have to be even more concerned for Manning. It has to be treated with extreme caution similar to a player returning with a concussion. As Kordell Stewart stated Wednesday, all functions start from the head down. Even if Manning is able to return, there are many variables to consider. His age, the teams age, and the rust of Manning missing an extended period of time.

As far as 2011, Kerry Collins is the quarterback for now. Think of the last 40 year old starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Of course Brett Favre tops the most recent list. Then you can date back to Doug Flutie and Vinny Testaverde. As the season goes on, the body beating takes it’s toll on the delivery of the football. The proper reads they see, there arm is a tad bit slower in delivering the football. Throw out Favre’s 2009 season, and think of those quarterbacks out their on display.

This brings a hot topic to the front of discussion. With the season in jeopardy, how will the Colts front office manage the year? Will they try and sign veteran David Garrard to see if they can make a run? Manning for years made this average team above average. So quarterbacks that are on the cusp of average will expose this team all out. Defensive coordinators will finally be able to attack freely without worries of getting burned over the top or across the field.

Remember Kerry Collins had the Tennessee Titans off to an 0-6 start out the gate, and basically forced the Titans to start Vince Young. As bad as Young is and was, he managed to get the Titans on a win streak. The season is not looking bright, but being in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes is highly probable.

If Manning is out for the season, there is only the Seattle Seahawks that look like they would have a similar horrible record when the season ended. Even if some of the teams that are starting rookie quarterbacks end up towards the bottom of the NFL, they already have their signal caller for the upcoming years.

Wouldn’t that be something if the Colts were able to nab Luck, and Manning came back in 2012 fully recovered? Luck already showed patience in returning for his senior season, so sitting behind Manning would likely not be a problem. This would be awfully similar to what happened with the San Antonio Spurs. Aging veteran David Robinson was the heart and soul of the Spurs, and when he missed an entire season the team felt it 100%. Landing with the number one pick as a result, they built a formidable wall in the interior and Robinson had a wing man to dominate the paint.

Colts fans down right now have this other side of the spectrum to look at for the year, because it’s going to be an ugly one.