Weekly Analysis

Cuse Connection

Sunday, 6 June, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

When you think of Syracuse football the first thing that comes to mind is, do they play football there anymore. The program has been in disarray since 2000. Long gone are the days of Marvin Harrison, Rob Konrad, Donovan McNabb, and Dwight Freeney. Talented players that use to commit to Syracuse are finding their ways to Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and other opposing conference teams. Attracting prospects and turning them from a blue chip to a stud is what Syracuse footballs main challenge has been. That’s harder said than done, and the program has stunk it up the past decade.

Last year the team regained some notoriety even though losing was still apart of the fold. They hired Doug Marrone former Saints offensive coordinator to take over head coaching duties. Then a laughable story at first in bringing in Greg Paulus to quarterback the team actually fared decent. Paulus had a rough go at stretches but brought fans back to the Carrier Dome to watch football, and had them in many games they could of won. Paulus has now worked himself an opportunity to make the Saints team after getting an invite to training camp.

A prime reason for Paulus’s ascent and climb throughout last year at Syracuse was because of wide receiver Mike Williams. Williams stretched defenses and gave Paulus a safety net of trust on any type of throw. Paulus could air out a median type of pass or the quick throw and Williams would not disappoint. How else could you explain a quarterback that was held for hardly any yards throwing including only 36 passing yards in the second half against Minnesota, to a week later throwing for 346 yards? That just doesn’t happen. Take a glance at the guy who ate up over 200 yards receiving with two touchdowns in that game, Mike Williams.

Williams had a tumultuous ride at Syracuse. While the team was being dismantled on the field, Williams showed a glimmer of hope for Syracuse fans. As a sophomore he caught a touchdown in nine straight games in 2007. That’s when the off the field issues begun. He was suspended for the 2008 season for academic reasons,  and had to rededicate himself by enrolling at a nearby community college. This type of story has happened to many of athletes and some just give up. Even with how embarrassing the matter was Williams got his grades up and showed enough for Syracuse to reinstate him for 2009.

Last year was going fine for Williams and it seemed as if he did not miss a beat. Talks around college football began to label him as a potential first or second round pick, and a top talent receiver. Towards the end of the season things began to unravel again for Williams. As Syracuse’s chances for a bowl exited the team also began to deviate from rules laid down by head coach Marrone. Players on the team including Williams had went to a casino in New York and been involved in a minor accident. That led to a suspension imposed on all the players. Instead of facing the suspension Williams decided to quit the team. With only a few left he figured there was no value in finishing out the year as he had plans to put his name in the NFL Draft anyways.

You could see why his stock slipped and why teams were weary in adding him to their team. Williams fell all the way to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the fourth round, but has every opportunity to show NFL franchises what they missed out on. Tampa Bay is going to give him a chance to win a starting job. The team has a lot of question marks especially offensively, and Williams will have his work cut out against opposing secondary’s. That’s nothing different from the way it was at Syracuse where teams tried to slow him down but couldn’t.

If Williams can stay out of trouble he is going to be a solid fantasy receiver in his first season. Tampa Bay is going to be down in a lot of ball games. That will open the door for Williams to get additional junk yardage and possible touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Out of the receivers selected this year Williams could end up being of the highest value right behind Dez Bryant. Call it crazy for a fourth round pick, but Williams has been bucking trends ever since he stepped foot at a Syracuse school that hasn’t seen his type of talent in years.

Does Moss Have the Drive?

Friday, 4 June, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Randy Moss is at the top of most lists for one of the best receivers to ever play in the NFL. He came into the NFL with the placement tag of being a project with issues. None of that was seen from week one onward in 1998. He took the league by storm and had NFL franchise owners thinking what did I do not selecting him. Throughout it all though the issues that were highlighted on Moss negatively have bore existence throughout his NFL career. By him parting ways with his agent and his future with the Patriots in limbo, how will he perform in 2010?

For all three teams Moss has played with there has been a point where we have witnessed him slow down. Minnesota it came  With Minnesota it came with the unraveling of Culpepper and his injuries piled with his need to move on from the franchise. At Oakland he seemed to be in hibernation from the get go besides an opening day tease where he caught a long bomb against the Patriots. His 2006 season there will be like a great musicians lengthy career. Down the road they always release tracks that didn’t come out during their glory days because it just wasn’t top notch material then. That 2006 year was mixed in between twelve tremendous seasons thus far. When highlights of Moss are displayed of his illustrious career there will be few clips of silver and black footage.

With the Patriots Moss found the winning type of organization that brought him back to elite level. Last year though one game  was spotlighted that brought remarks out of Moss to shut down the media. A guy that is averaging well over double digit touchdowns on a yearly basis and pairs it with his yardage numbers deserves a downer of a game here and there. He is human, and expecting nothing but statistical excellence is what people have come to expect.

What ignites Randy Moss is winning not proving people wrong. He feeds off of winning as do most NFL players. We’ve seen Moss turn up an extra gear of speed to catch a deep ball, and we’ve also seen him short arm a throw and give up on routes. After last years disappointing season many believe the Patriots are an aged veteran team needing a reshaping. Moss surprisingly is entering his 13th year in the league and at this stage in his career it takes a concerted effort to be ready on a weekly basis.

The natural gifted abilities he has can not be turned off and on when he wants. He is in an eastern climate where it is even rougher on the body and muscles to get loose for a rigorous sixteen game season. He has on more than one occasion voiced that this will likely be his last season as a Patriot. The organization has not begun talks with him on extending a new deal and it appears that Moss may be right. Signing an athlete to a mega deal entering his fourteenth year would be hard pressed for a smart organization as the Pats. How will this affect Moss’s 2010 season?

Based on his past experiences signs are  not looking too good. In Moss’s last season with both the Vikings and Raiders they proved to be his worst seasons in the NFL. Those two teams were also the worst two teams he has had to play on in his NFL career. Even at that there are plenty of high profile athletes that have had great seasons on poor teams, just ask Andre Johnson. For a guy of Moss’s caliber a let down should not of occurred. Looking deeper into the situation those years was the fact that Moss simply tuned himself out physically and mentally. A deadly combo that turned him into a Jerry Porter.

When Tom Brady is your quarterback the excuses can not be formed. If Moss shuts down on a third team during his last year with hit than it will show his selfish nature. The Patriots will likely be a winning team unlike those other two franchise during those years so we do not see that happening at that type of level. Look out if the Patriots hit an unforeseen bump. When are projections for fantasy receivers come out Moss likely will be a bit further down on our list than most. Not drastically down but enough too make fantasy owners think.

White(out)

Tuesday, 1 June, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

As the NFL and franchises keep facing the rise of dealing with troubling issues, teams are stepping up to the plate by going in other directions. Cutting lose from looming battles of investigations that destroy team chemistry, and allow a player to rejoin after serving a suspension. Talent level is too high to deal with such issues.  It has been a pattern too often plaguing offseason organizations and now teams are wising up.

Literally just after trading for Lendale White and supposed reunion with Coach Carroll it has ended abruptly. After another failed drug test White would now face suspension by the league. This may have been something an organization three or four years into a regime would sidestep. Not a team rebuilding with a new nucleus starting from coach to multiple position players. Tolerance of breaking the rules is not what Caroll will allow or showcase. What kind of example would that set for a team that has underachieved consecutive years?

The prior linking of White and Caroll at USC had to make the decision tough, but Carrol and the Seahawks made the right decision. White will have time to get the right people around him and rededicate himself. For the Seahawks they have chose to move forward. In an article only a few weeks ago we highlighted the Seahawks backfield as a primary battle for fantasy owners. With White out of the loop it gets even more interesting. Could the Seahawks possibly go after Brian Westbrook or bring in a free agent rookie to pose a threat of shaking up the backfield.

There are several red flags to the current Seahawks backfield situation. Julius Jones and Justin Forsett were part of the Seahawks bottoming out the NFL in productivity in the backfield. Upgrading by bringing in Lendale White and Leon Washington were glaring signs to both Jones and Forsett. All signs were that White would be their primary ball carrier. Can Forsett and Jones shake off the fact that the organization was not backing them only a few days ago?

It’s hard enough for players to compete at their highest of levels when trade talks are surrounding that player. As an NFL athlete you have to be prepared for any type of situation and hopefully these two guys are. Down the road their carousel of being misled will likely end with the typical closure of exiting papers. Before that happens though both can brighten their perceived value by making the most of their situations.

Jones looks to be the once again front runner. Leon Washington is a change of pace back that will bring excitement to Carroll’s system. When it comes to being an every down back though Washington has not shown enough capability to do that. Jones has not necessarily lit up the charts himself. Something will give as the Seahawks know they can not force a complete burden on Hasselback’s bad back and shoulders.

Looking from a fantasy value perspective we have too leave off both Forsett and Jones. Jones is on the downside of his career. He has not been getting a significant amount of carries. Running backs  just do not suddenly reemerge statistically. Forsett is a scat back type that could make a push but may not be the guy the Seahawks are looking for. That leaves Washington as the lone fantasy worthy back currently for Seattle. This is for early fantasy drafts that are happening in June. This will continue to be a hot topic based on what type of offense Carroll wants to tailor. He’ll be tinkering with all types of ideas and the debate could involve another back by the end of the summer. For now though Washington  is the main guy. He has been a blip of a fantasy performer that should only see a higher committed role than prior years as a Jet.

Share the Wealth

Tuesday, 25 May, 2010

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Spread offenses with potent quarterbacks are love affairs to fantasy owners. Often times an owner with such a quarterback will try to double down their points by landing a receiver on that offense. Numbers used too evenly spread throughout the course of the year. In most of these offenses though getting consistency on a weekly basis from the second or third receiver has scaled back a bit. Out in Indianapolis is one of the more intriguing snapshots to try and figure out who will get the balance of Peyton Manning’s precision throws.

We know that Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark should be natural locks to stay of pace statistically of there prior years. Should we be so sure of that though? Receivers often decline out of no where and this is going to be Wayne’s tenth season in the league. At some point deterioration begins to happen and he will not be able to shake opposing teams number one corners with ease. For the Colts to allow Wayne to use his veteran tactics to stave off diminishing skills he will need to be able to rely on the Colts other receivers.

Folks have a little taste of what Pierre Garcon can do. He emerged last season when Anthony Gonzalez was unable to come back from nagging injuries. Garcon proved to be a big play target and was the home run threat Manning depended on. Speed is his best asset and he is currently slated as the Colts third receiver. We’d like to think that if Garcon improves on other areas as a receiver that he could surpass Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a steady possession receiver type that seems more suited for third down pass plays. When he was their third receiver a few years ago behind Harrison and Wayne, he was able to find space in zones for Manning to drop the ball into. As an every down receiver though that type of player is already on the field in Dallas Clark.

A good sign for fantasy owners that own the Colts receivers is that they’ll likely lead the league in combined trio production. The reason being is that their running game has been very poor over the last few seasons. Joseph Addai’s yards per carry continue to be dismal and last year was at 3.8. It’s hard to believe that the Colts running game has been this poor with the amount of audibles Manning is able to call at the line, and how he keeps defenses on their heels with play action. Their running game was towards the bottom of the league, but should spike up a little as the Colts will look to give Donald Brown more touches in his second year.

The battle for second receiver will be an interesting one. Austin Collie did fine in the third receiver role last year with over 700 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns. So those numbers will not be bad for either Garcon or Gonzalez, and should be upgradeable based on their talent. Fantasy owners want an every down threat though as you should.

We just can’t see the Colts keeping Garcon’s big play ability off the field. Gonzalez is coming off a year of injuries and is going to have to fend off Garcon who continued his great regular season with a monster playoffs. He caught eleven balls for over 150 yards and a touchdown in the AFC championship game against the Jets, and scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl as well. The situation is comparable to when a teams starting quarterback goes down and they find something better when that backup comes in and starts winning.

Of course the Colts could just use their spread offense more if the ground game stays stagnant, but they know their lack of a ground game hurt them in the Super Bowl. Garcon has better fantasy value currently than Gonzalez and it’ll likely remain that way. Look for Garcon who is in the third year of his four year deal, to build upon last year in hopes of working out a new deal before the final year of his contract.

 

Fantasy Factor: Seattle’s Running Backs

Friday, 14 May, 2010

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

Seattle like most teams was in desperation mode to make moves to improve their team. Rather than making silent quiet signings and build through draft picks, they decided to bust out an array of bold moves. First they went after arguably the highest profiled college coach out there, and one that has had semi success before in the NFL ranks. Pete Carroll brings the dynamic of transforming the way he was able to mold young players at USC to maybe doing the same with young NFL contract athletes trying to fulfill their first contract obligations.

A city that is still reeling from the loss of an NBA franchise, Seattle, hopes that a revival to the years of Shaun Alexander’s breakout years is back. The division that the Seahawks dominated in laughable fashion for years after the realignment suddenly shifted to Arizona and San Francisco. It all started with the debacle of letting Steve Hutchinson sign with the Minnesota Vikings, and than countering that deal by unloading the same type of money on bust receiver Nate Burelson. From their Shaun Alexander tanked quicker than the media and NBA fans have on LeBron James. Their veteran quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck just could not avoid injuries the past few years, and had little support on the offensive side of the football.

Pete Carroll is not one to sit back and he has instantly made some trades that he thinks can boost this team now. Divisional foes come in with just as many question marks as Seattle so these type of moves could send strong signals to the teams veterans and ignite them in the right direction. After all Arizona will be running with either Derek Anderson or Matt Leinart, and San Francisco is finally setting forth their confidence with Alex Smith.

The head scratching trade for Charlie Whitehurst was a hot topic for multiple days, but one that did not get as much hype was the trades for Leon Washington and Lendale White. Even though Julius Jones is still on the team we do not expect that to remain through training camp. Towards the end of last season Justin Forsett was the main back for Seattle. Jones has struggled to reign in solid years with little to no competition the past several years, especially when he was paired with Edgerrin James.

Carroll thinks he can end White’s up and down battle in his NFL career with weight, alcohol, and commitment to football shape(conditioning). White’s already responded well by showing up to mini camp and what some would say the best shape he has for NFL mini camps. Linking with Carroll has seemed to put a flashback energize in him. White has already been a carousel fantasy back throughout his career. What could we expect from him as a feature back, as he is expected to be in Seattle? With fantasy owners not sure of how Seattle will share carries and their offensive woes the past few seasons, White will be a strong fantasy sleeper.

Last year he was just put aside completely by the emergence of Chris Johnson. The two seasons before last year though he was putting up monster touchdown numbers as an overweight and questionable work ethic athlete. He is still only 25, and double digit touchdowns entering the fold for White is a realistic outlook.

Than you have the flash and dash factor of Leon Washington. A back that has been dangerous in every phase of the game once he has his hands on the football. Call it crazy, but doesn’t it look like Carroll’s trying to build a backfield similar to his days at USC…..Bush/White. Washington’s role has yet to be determined and could stay just about the same as it was with New York. The thing about Washington though is he is a capable enough back to supplant White if White lets up and loses focus as he tends to do throughout a season. If so, we could see Carroll easily losing his patience and shifting the majority of carries to Washington. Even though Washington has never been a prime feature back, his yards per carry have been among the best in the league since he came into the league.

Heading into your early fantasy June drafts, White is the lone obvious strong back to draft from Seattle. He should get double digit touchdowns and if he is a feature back getting 15-20 carries than a 1,000 yard season should not be far sighted. Washington’s role and fantasy impact will depend more on training camp and preseason work. Injuries or depth chart movements could turn Washington from a late round June fantasy pick, to a serious sleeper in August/September.

 

Will Kolb Hurt Jackson’s Numbers?

Thursday, 8 April, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

After all the gossip talk and predictions of what people think is going to happen with Donovan in Washington and Kolb in Philly,  training camp will begin and performance will be the true measure. The fantasy world is already anticipating a spike to Kolb’s game and expect him to be a strong fantasy starter.

Why shouldn’t they? He was a big factor in his two starts last year when he threw for 300 yards and had the offense ticking like it hadn’t missed a beat. Two games is hardly a scope of predictable measure. Quarterbacks have their streaks all the time, and more often than not a quarterback can step in and excel. Especially with a solid skill set as Kolb does have, and experience gained from learning behind McNabb. Often though once that quarterback gets truly tested defensive coordinators gain quickly on a quarterbacks tendencies. They’ll know exactly what type of pressure to throw at Kolb and schemes too throw off his rhythm.

Flashback to what the true reason why McNabb wasn’t traded a year before. A November 23rd matchup in which McNabb was yanked and Kolb came in and played like an ex XFL caliber quarterback. Andy Reid’s statement of just giving Kolb some experience and his other stammering explanations were bogus. If Kolb would have performed well then and there he would of taken over the reigns.

The potent combo and fantasy fanatics that are expecting DeSean Jackson to thrive as he did last year may be in for a surprise. Sure Kolb’s two starts last year were great games for Jackson. Both games he exploded for big touchdowns and over 100 yards receiving. For anyone that remembers those games, Jackson’s big play touchdowns were not due to Kolb’s arm. The plays involved Jackson making a big play after the catch and using his speed to run away from the pack. Kolb doesn’t necessarily have a strong arm; not nearly the strength of Donovan McNabb’s.

That’s the factor that could turn DeSean Jackson from a week to week consistent big time fantasy factor back to unpredictable. If Kolb can’t show the strength to air it out, teams will compress their safeties and bump more off the snap on Jackson. Jackson has shown the ability to make catches wherever on the field but we all know he is a guy that is a burner. He had 10 plays for over 40 yards, an incredible statistic, especially considering he only caught 61 balls. That’s a bad sign for owners banking on Jackson trending around the numbers of last year.

We expect Jackson’s big play ability to be diminished with Kolb under center. Meaning Jackson likely will have a tough time catching six to eight touchdowns. Yardage should still be there as we know Andy Reid is going to call enough pass plays to numerically make up for Kolb’s three years as backup. Seriously though, do not make the mistake of reaching too high on grabbing Jackson. A legit number one fantasy receiver should be somebody that without question can guarantee you ten plus touchdowns. We don’t foresee that happening in 2010. Breaking down the numbers of last year and looking beyond the big plays of Jackson, he had seven games with three catches or less.

Unless Kolb is an All-Pro type like Aaron Rodgers waiting to shine, it’s going to be a long painful growing experience for Kolb, Jackson, and Andy Reid.