Automatic/Don’t Do It

NFL: Finding Fantasy Points at Wide Receiver

Saturday, 26 November, 2011

 

By Vidur Malik

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Now that NFL offenses have come down to earth from the astronomical numbers they were putting up in the beginning of the season, your fantasy players have probably taken a hit.

 

Quarterbacks have had the most noticeable drop-off in production, but the league’s elite wide receivers have also seen their numbers drop. Two examples are Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson. Both players began the season with the potential to have record-setting years. Welker had over 700 yards after only five weeks, while Johnson had nine touchdown receptions in his first five games. Welker looked like he was on his way to setting the record for receiving yards in a season – which currently belongs to Jerry Rice, who had 1,848 yards in 1995 – and Johnson was on pace to shatter the record for touchdown receptions in a season, which Randy Moss set in 2007 with 23 touchdowns.

 

Both have dramatically cooled off. Johnson hasn’t cleared 100 yards receiving in his past three games and only has one touchdown in that span, and Welker has gone above 100 yards only once the past four games. Welker and Johnson are still ranked number one and two in yardage for receivers, respectively, and their numbers are still relatively good compared to their record-setting output earlier in the season, so there’s no reason to panic. You should, however, start looking for lesser-known wide outs for your team if you haven’t already.

 

There are a few receivers out there who might not be household names and should be available in your league. We recommended taking a look at Earl Bennett of the Chicago Bears a few weeks ago, and even though quarterback Jay Cutler is out with a broken thumb, Bennett is still the most reliable receiver on the team and should be a target for backup quarterback Caleb Hanie. Michael Crabtree of the 49ers had a seven-catch, 120-yard day against the Cardinals in week 11, and though he only had 54 yards against the Ravens on Thursday, he was still the Niners’ leading receiver with six catches.

 

Looking for tight ends could also help your team. Picking up players like Dennis Pitta of the Baltimore Ravens or Fred Davis of the Redskins and putting them in your flex spot could get you solid production. Both players aren’t going to give you big numbers, but they do get targeted by their quarterbacks and could get you some points on any given day.

 

Like any position, the wide receiver spots in fantasy teams are dominated by a few stars, but looking for up-and-comers who aren’t widely known could help you make a late-season surge. Players like Welker and Johnson will always be fantasy threats, but even they have off days. Make sure you’re prepared for them.

 

 

 

 

Week Nine Automatic/Don’t Do It

Friday, 4 November, 2011

 

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

Have the bye weeks and injuries caused a skid of losses that you hope end this week? Turning your season around, may ride on this week. Who are some value guys out there that you should start or avoid?

 

 

 

Quarterbacks

 

Start: Philip Rivers

 

Many think Rivers and the Chargers will struggle with the way they lost on Monday Night. Have the way the Chargers played over the years ever been predictable? Look for this team to come out and play the Packers tough. Rivers has had one of his roughest years, and his botched snap may finally of been the wake up call for 2011.

 

Start: Jon Skelton

 

Sometimes teams can come out and give it their all for a game. For a game last week the Rams put on a good performance. One week though is not going to bypass the major deficiences of this team. Often one game fill in quarterbacks can have some success. Heck, undrafted rookie Max Hall got a win for the Cardinals against the Saints last year. Skelton is a big quarterback that had a few starts a year ago. He’ll deliver some key balls and put up decent numbers against a poor Rams defense

 

Start: Matt Cassel

 

Cassel has put together a solid run of starts transitioning himself from a borderline fantasy starter, to the zone that you can take a risk with a favorable matchup. This is that week as the Chiefs face the Miami Dolphins. His simple reads seem to be there, and his accuracy has boosted. Having tall targets such as Dwayne Bowe and Jonathan Baldwin help as well.

 

Sit: Joe Flacco

 

Flacco has just been too erratic lately to put him in as a fantasy starter against a top tier defense. The Steelers injuries defensively will bode well for Ray Rice more than Flacco.

 

Sit: Josh Freeman

 

New Orleans has been a team that Freeman has torched in the past. Look for this game to be a bit different. New Orleans is coming off a horrible loss, and knows all to well that this game is pivotal for positioning within the division. Freeman has struggled most of the year, in large part to his receivers not separating from cornerbacks.

 

Running Backs

 

Start: DeMarco Murray

 

Keep riding the newly found most productive waiver wire back of the year.

 

Start: Steven Jackson

 

St. Louis believes they can get a two game win streak going. They’ll try to ride the success of last week’s victory, which was with the legs of running back Steven Jackson.

 

Start: Reggie Bush

 

Though the Dolphins offense lacks spark, Bush is slowly starting to compile fantasy worthy numbers. With Daniel Thomas shaky to play weekly, Bush is getting more and more reps. Look for him to have another outing worthy to be a flex starter.

 

Sit: Chris Johnson

 

You want to figure out a week to insert Johnson for a breakout week but it just doesn’t happen. Now he faces one of the top defenses in the league against the Bengals.

 

Sit: Tashard Choice

 

This won’t be the week that Choice has an out of no where game.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Start: Pierre Garcon

 

Start: Joshua Cribbs

 

Start: Victor Cruz

 

Sit: Antonio Gates

 

Sit: Torrey Smith

 

Sit: Darrius Heyward-Bey

Post Week Seven Waiver Wire Pickups

Wednesday, 26 October, 2011

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

Seven fantasy games in, it’s now or never to make your last attempt to position yourself for the playoffs. Even if you are in position, keeping an eye on players that could be impactful in the later weeks may prove worth while. Here are some athletes to look at that shined in week seven.

 

Quarterbacks

 

 

 

Christian Ponder- In his first start, Ponder proved that the Vikings moving forward for 2012 is a smart decision. Displaying the ability to manuever on the run, and air out throws was in view. McNabb on the other hand, could not offset the teams offensive line limitations to be able to create on the run. Ponder provides that, and had a few big plays to off-season acquisition Michael Jenkins.

 

Carson Palmer- Seeking to add Palmer after his second half performance does not seem like a formidable addition to a fantasy team. The simple fact that Palmer only knew ten percent of the Raiders plays, and rust should be noted. He’ll have a bye week to get in tune with the Raiders playbook and players

 

Tim Tebow- Even with inaccuracy, Tebow is a fantasy factor due to the amount of yards he is going to get on the ground. His paltry passing yardage numbers will be somewhat offset with his rushing yards. Don’t forget Tebow has had decent passing performances dating back to a year ago.

 

John Beck- Beck did not do horrible, but lost the head to head matchup with Newton. Beck is in the same category as Rex Grossman from a fantasy stand point. You really won’t be able to anticipate when he is worth starting, but having him on your roster for an emergency may be worth it.

 

Running Backs

 

DeMarco Murray- Just check his stats. Hopefully you were able to pick him up before Sunday’s game, when he was noted as a waiver wire pickup.

 

Marion Barber- The former Cowboy has had a tough start with the Bears. With the team realizing that it’s run blocking is much better than pass protection, Martz is starting to shift his mentality. No more dropping back unnecessary snaps, the team is going to the ground attack. Barber has always been a beast inside the red zone. Maybe there is new fantasy life after Sunday’s performance.

 

Kregg Lumpkin- The last resort at running back. Tampa Bay is hoping he can be a fill in similar to when the Panthers were forced to a similar situation a few years back. Unlikely, but if you need an option, Lumpkin may be the only choice for you on waivers.

 

Ryan Torain/Roy Helu- With Hightower done for the year, the Redskins will likely shift to a running back by committee. Normally teams would have a front runner for backup, but not Mike Shanahan. He has already had given fantasy owners teases with both Torain and Helu. Torain has the prior history, but Helu is the young back that may be prime to take over.

 

Mike Bush- Bush has been fantasy worthy this year just based on the Raiders powerful ground attack. Goal line plunges may now be transformed into a fill in role for the injured McFadden. After McFadden left early in the first against Kansas City, Bush did a fine job with 90 yards and a touchdown.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Roy Williams- There has finally been a Williams sighting. For a team that lacks a true number one receiver, Williams has a chance to be a factor if he can stay healthy. A tall target that will have plenty of one on one opportunities, with the way that Matt Forte is rushing the football.

 

Antonio Brown- He has scattered with performances this year, but there comes a time when that turns into consistency. Against the Cardinals he was getting open with ease, and made some difficult catches. Hines Ward continues to age, and eventually the Steelers are going to lean more in Brown’s direction, if they haven’t already. Look for Brown to have a huge second half of the year.

Week Seven: Automatic/Don’t Do It

Thursday, 20 October, 2011

 

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

 

 

Are bye week binds killing you? These are the weeks that you need to rely on that depth that you built up with an all around solid draft, and tweaked weekly with waiver wire additions. It’s not too late to sacrifice a dire need by reaching out for a last minute trade (Oakland Raiders). Here are some athletes to take a look at as fantasy starters this weekend.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Kevin Kolb-

 

Sometimes when the pressure is off, that’s when you see a players talent on the field rise. Kevin Kolb came into Arizona as the newfound post Kurt Warner quarterback. Offered a mega million dollar deal, he has struggled to generate a passing attack for the Cardinals. With the 49ers 5-1, and Arizona 1-4 the chances of the season turning around are slim. This should allow for Kolb to truly develop as the year goes on, and get this team thinking positive for 2012.

 

John Beck-

 

Carolina’s defense has not been strong all year. Mike Shanahan plugs in Beck at the opportune time to get away with it. As Rex jumped out the gate to start the year, we all knew it was a matter of time before he came back down to Earth. Shanahan may flip flop quarterbacks with his impatience, but Beck should be able to retain the position.

 

Tim Tebow-

 

A fanfare ploy of greatness. Tebow gets to debut in Florida against a decimated Dolphins team. No matter how ugly Tebow starts, there will be a chance for him to make it up in the fourth quarter. Miami is not going to run away from Denver. Probably a low scoring game, but Tebow has been a monster for rushing touchdowns. Seven already in his career. When you can get that type of production from a fantasy quarterback, you take it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Running Backs

 

Maurice Morris-

 

You have to like a guy that has been a consistent veteran. Morris does not do anything flashy, and will not be a high sought after free agent. When his name is called though, he can deliver a 100 yard game with a touchdown. With the Ronnie Brown trade nixed, Morris should receive primary carries to himself Sunday.

 

Earnest Graham-

 

With Blount’s injury, the Bucs will turn to veteran Earnest Graham. Though Graham may not get the workload that Blount did with carries, the Bucs will mix it up with more pass plays his way. Graham can be an effective pass catching back. That should be a perfect safety valve for Josh Freeman. With the team traveling to London, the receivers may be a little sluggish down field. It isn’t as if they have been stellar this year anyway.

 

Marshawn Lynch-

 

Tavaris Jackson’s pectoral injury likely means Charlie Whitehurst re-enters the picture. Lynch’s work load has been rather embarrassing for a number one back. Seattle just has not been a rushing team this year. With Whitehurst in the lineup, look for Pete Carrol to simplify things a tad. Lynch is coming off his best game of the year versus the Giants, and that led to a win. Look for Lynch to get surpass his season high of nineteen carries vs. Arizona.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Mike Sims-Walker-

 

He is back as a Jaguar. After being a bust with St. Louis, he gets a chance to re-correct his season. Most players have to wait years if they were put in a poor situation. Blaine Gabbert made some nifty down field throws last week versus Pittsburgh. The addition of Sims-Walker bolsters the Jaguars passing attack. This Baltimore defense has been stout this year, but over the last few seasons the Ravens have crumbled defensively in stretches. It’s an old team, and I believe Sims-Walker could pose some problems Monday Night

 

Nate Washington-

 

A pleasant surprise due to the amount of years he has already been in the league. Hasselbeck has found Washington to be a very reliable target. As Chris Johnson settles in over the next few weeks, Washington’s value should rise even more.

 

Percy Harvin-

 

Harvin has typically had decent games vs. the Packers. Minnesota tends to get in holes early in games. With the way their defense has performed, it’ll likely continue against a ramped up Packers offense. Ponder will get plenty of second half garbage stats, to make fans overlook weaknesses in the first half. Harvin will reap a good percentage of those twelve to fifteen second half pass completions.

 

Owen Daniels

 

Since Andre Johnson has missed time, Daniels offensive involvement has risen. Baltimore shut him out for the most part last week. A smart defense is going to figure out you’re number one target. Before that game though, Daniels was averaging near six catches a game. He also caught a touchdown for three straight weeks in games two through four. Facing Tennessee, Daniels should be able to free himself up for a big day and a few big plays down the field.

Week Five Automatic/Don’t Do It

Thursday, 6 October, 2011

 

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

September has concluded. The next four weeks of October are pivotal to either sustain your lead atop your fantasy league, or to start climbing back in the race. At the end of the month will you be haunted or the one causing the chaos?

 

Here’s a look at some athletes that should be automatics to start and others to sit.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Start: Matt Hasselbeck

 

Hasselbeck may be the only quarterback that can make ten completions fantasy worthy. Without Kenny Britt he has found a way. Utilizing veteran Nate Washington and tight end Jared Cook. As long as Chris Johnson continues to improve, Hasselbeck is a solid number two fantasy quarterback.

 

Start: Matt Cassel

 

Cassel should be playing basketball. When he is hot, he can be as consistent as they come at delivering your Chiefs fantasy receivers 100 yard games. When he is not, he’ll throw for under 100 yards with a pair of picks. Cassel looks to be charting back upward, so he could be a waiver wire addition consideration after this week.

 

Sit: Mark Sanchez

 

Sanchez was definitely rattled by harassed blitzes from the Ravens. Each of the past two years, Sanchez has struggled to respond when faced with adversity during the regular season. The Jets will look to control this game with the ground game. I don’t think Sanchez will have over twenty attempts in this one. Rex Ryan wants to keep his defense and the Tom Brady dink and dump offense off the field.

 

Sit: Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

Running Backs

 

Start: Marshawn Lynch

 

The New York Giants somehow win with a formula of Eli turning the ball over, and the defense giving up chunks of yards. Maybe they’re just fortunate. The opportunistic defense will force turnovers, but they offset that with allowing running backs to rush all over them.

 

Start: Jahvid Best

 

Though he has been quiet this year, Best thrives in divisional games. With teams needing to key in on the passing attack more, Best should start to see his production rise. He has it in him, and should be a top seven fantasy back heading into next year.

 

Sit. Joey Addai

 

I really like the way Addai has ran the football the past few games for the Colts. The team has fed off of its veterans but just can’t sustain the effort in the 4th period. There comes a point when veterans use to winning hit that loser wall. This team is 0-4 and reality will set in. This team and front office will want to see where the youth lies with this team. Bring in Delone Carter, who will get more and more carries as the season goes on.

 

Sit: Mark Ingram

 

Wide Receivers

 

Start: AJ Green

 

Green gets an actual favorable match up this weekend. He has been quite a surprise on an offense not expected to do much. Rookie Andy Dalton has found a way to deliver the football, and the team remains balanced with Cedric Benson rushing the football. Green should have another solid game to pad to his stats.

 

Start: Mike Williams

 

Williams has had a tough time adjusting to defenses this season. Teams are not letting him beat them all day with intermediate routes. Josh Freeman is finding other targets such as Preston Parker and Arrelious Benn. Look for Williams to get back on track this week, with his best game of the year.

 

Start: Titus Young

 

Teams may find a way to gear up and stop Megatron. All that’s going to do is divide up more throws Young’s way. Even though Johnson typically posts great numbers against the Bears, I’m going with the Contrarian view that Young will be the Lions leading receiver.

 

Sit: Plaxico Burress

 

Sit: Marques Colston

Week Four: Automatic/Don’t Do It

Thursday, 29 September, 2011

 

 

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

September is just about in the books. Lets look at week four’s automatic starts and players to not even think of putting in your fantasy lineups.

 

Start: Donovan McNabb

 

Minnesota isn’t loaded at wide receiver, but the team is improving by the week. Their tough schedule early on will now become much easier. It isn’t like they haven’t been in their games. They’ve just not been able to play four complete quarters. The key to success is the way the Vikings have been the past few weeks. Armed and ready to hand the ball to AP. There are going to be some weeks that AP elevates McNabb’s passing stats, and this week will be one of them.

 

Sit: Matt Hasselbeck

 

The woes are well known for the Titans. Their offense was efficient by being heavily dependant on the pass over the run. Chris Johnson has not been able to get in gear, and sooner or later that’s going to cause Hassle beck a horrible game. That game may be this week. Without his Pro Bowl caliber receiver Kenny Britt, the Titans receivers now become one of the worst in the league. Nothing new to Hasselbeck as he comes from Seattle.

 

Start: Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

The quarterback that was recruited by just Eastern Washington and Harvard, and honorable mention for All-State his senior year in high school, is now becoming a big time NFL quarterback. He has turned around a franchise, and has this team believing. The Bills somehow keep getting down in games and fighting back relentlessly. However they get the wins, Fitzpatrick is piling up impressive fantasy stats.

 

Start: LT

 

It looks like an unfavorable match up, but the Ravens have not been as stellar at giving up yards. They step up defensively in spots, but they do not play an entire four quarters of great football. Shonne Greene should be held in check, but look for LT to get some big plays out of the backfield. A good flex option this week.

 

Sit: Joey Addai

 

Addai ran tough and had one of his better games in awhile against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The amount of carries was a season high, to go along with nearly ninety yards and a touchdown. I don’t look for that to become a trend. The Colts managed the game effectively and limited the Steelers opportunities offensively. With the status of their quarterback situation still woeful, maintaining an effective rushing attack with someone as inconsistent as Addai will be hard to do.

 

Start: Daniel Thomas

 

The Dolphins are 0-3 with a couple of winnable games left on the playing field. One bright spot has been rookie Daniel Thomas. Thomas is excelling on a weekly basis, and granting the heavier work amount over newcomer Reggie Bush. Thomas should garner another effective fantasy outing with points in the range of ten to fourteen. For the ADP of Thomas, you’re getting way more value than you bargained for.

 

Sit: Frank Gore

 

We’ve seen the pattern far too often. A reliant running back, you expect to continually produce year after year. Age use to be the determining factor, but nowadays talent level declines out of nowhere. Gore’s time may be now. He has staved off injuries throughout his career to remain effective, but this year he just hasn’t had it. He looks slower, and just not himself. The heavy workloads of the prior years seem to have slowed him down a tad.

 

Start: Santana Moss

 

Moss seems to be Grossman’s main go to guy, as has been the case throughout Moss’s career with several different quarterbacks. He still has the speed to beat defenders deep, but has become more effective with simple crossing patterns the last few years. St. Louis has been ripped apart by the Giants, Ravens, and Eagles on big pass plays. Look for Moss to have one of his patented stat filler games.

 

Sit: Mike Thomas

 

Thomas finally had some fantasy relevancy in week three. Catching a touchdown to go with over fifty yards receiving. The touchdown came on an unorthodox type of play. Yet even though Thomas is the Jaguars main target at receiver, his stats at the end of the year will likely look like a third receivers. Give Gabbert a few months to develop and take his lumps. In the mean time do not even think of putting Thomas in your lineup. At the end of the year he should have stronger value.