The Minnesota Twins are off to an atrocious start. A new ballpark and bolstering their team by resigning mega contracts with their stars has thus far backfired. Joe Mauer is out for an extended length of time until mid-May, and Justin Morneau has struggled to regain his former self at the plate.
They were the studs that the lineup fed off of. Instead of timely hits being made by the rest of the Twins, they’ve all faltered. Their batters from the three to seven spot have lacked any type of consistency, even Cuddyer who has risen over the last few years. Pitching was supposed to ride on the arms of Francisco Liriano. Sure he had a no hitter, but besides that start he has been rocked. This is not the direction the Twins were expected to go with their big three. Are they stuck with the mega contracts of these players? It appears so. An overhaul with their farm system, or trades for other teams prospects is likely.
One pitcher that has been able to manage outings well is Scott Baker (2.97 ERA). Minnesota’s defensive efficiency has struggled, but not when Baker has been out there. Baker has had solid command, and is making owners satisfied for drafting him in later rounds. He is getting his bang for his buck, but you’d have to say his first six starts are a mirage. Baker has been known for getting hit around and having short outings on the mound on a regular basis.
You can pick your spots with Baker, but he definitely shouldn’t be starting each time he is due to pitch for your fantasy team. Depth at pitcher is vital but you also need to manage your innings pitched. Having a pitcher like Baker can make that easier. The outing where Baker lasts three innings and gets lit up was just a matter of time. Today against Detroit he lasted just four innings. Unable to command his pitches, which led to five walks and six hits. Giving up a total of five runs.
Likely if you were trying to sell Baker high, no other owner bought it. They’ll definitely not now. Use Baker as an occasional starter and you’ll be fine. Just don’t expect him to put together five to six solid outings like he started the year off with.
When an ace is inconsistent you know it’s only a matter of time before he snaps out. They get that solid start and from there build upon it. An 0-5 start though, won’t just get into the pitcher’s head, it’ll also drive fantasy owners crazy. This is definitely a tough scenario to deal with as a fantasy owner.
You can trade him now, but what will you get back for him. Likely not much. So instead of selling him high, maybe you should break down his statistics. He is on a San Diego Padres team that has offered little to nothing in terms of run support. They’re obviously digging and searching for replacements since the Adrian Gonzalez departure. Heck, even with Gonzalez in the lineup, they often struggled for runs. Their team leader for batting average is Chase Headley at .245.
So the frustration shouldn’t be pinned completely on Latos. A young lineup like the Padres is going to take time to develop. It may not happen this year, but the bats should come out and spike at a more frequent rate.
Breaking down Latos statistically is where you can see that he still can be a strong factor. His WHIP is up but it has more to do with a few extra walks than it does hits. The hits have also been big blows, as six of the thirty one giving up have been home runs. What jumps out at you, is that he is still averaging a strikeout per inning.
Latos should not be giving up on just yet. His last three starts have been atrocious. Not lasting barely past the sixth inning and giving up a combined five home runs. So he could be headed down a bad lane for fantasy owners. Most of you should be over your projected season totals for innings pitched. Instead of throwing Latos out each start, sit him and see how he does.
Being in the NL West, he’ll get to face favorable matchups throughout the season. So far he has pitched against dynamic offenses, including the Phillies, Braves, and Reds. Tough outings for any pitcher. Don’t sell him low. When September comes around, you’ll forget that Latos was even in this poor stretch.
Jumping out the gates in April is always great. If you’re an owner that has shot to the front of your league, you can further yourself from the pack with proper moves. Deciding on the right players to deal out and capitalize off their hot start is the tricky part. Being in a competitive league, you almost have to nowadays play your leverage to further differentiate your team. If not, owners can capitalize off their waiver position and gain on you by August.
In every league there are going to be owners quick to make changes that are suffering out the gate. Making a sneaky proposal just to break the ice is the norm. A good percentage of the time no deal is going to be done after the first offer. If a guy has a major need and he continues to see your offered players do well, he will bend. Give it some time.
Here are some players that have started off very well, that you may be able to get high value for before they dip back down to reality.
Lance Berkman– Berkman seemed buried alive with the New York Yankees last year. The notion figured to be another overpaid big name turned bust. Age seemed to have caught up to Berkman. He went undrafted in many leagues and figured to be an after thought with the St. Louis Cardinals. While other big names on the Cardinals started off rocky, Berkman was the bat the produced. An owner with him is probably thinking when will he slow down? It’s going to happen, and his numbers will likely tail off drastically. Offering him up for desperate owners on the other side, may be the route to go.
Travis Hafner- Injury issues sometimes just never leave a player, until it causes the exit of his/her career. That seems to be the number one issue for Hafner. Health. Cleveland as a whole has exceeded April’s expectation with their start. Hafner is widely available in 46% of Yahoo leagues, which is a troubling number in itself. This is a guy that can produce and if he can sustain for another month, will be worth dealing to give yourself extra depth in a necessary area.
Ike Davis- Talk about a guy having a career year. When a young player has a start like this, it’s hard to project if he can sustain it. Often times though, it’s just a streaky run. Pitchers and managers will figure out Davis’s weaknesses and expose them. Once a rut begins, Davis could tail back off to his earthly averages of a year ago. Which were abysmal. Davis already has five home runs, when he only hit nineteen last year. Every statistical category he is on pace to crush exponentially. With Davis’s age, leveraging should figure better for the fantasy owner.
Ben Zobrist- The key with Zobrist now is that he is getting on base and the whole Rays lineup is delivering. With Evan Longoria returning to the lineup, numbers could continue to soar. On the contrary, Zobrist has never been a great hitter. A career .253 hitter. His power numbers have never jumped out at you either. There’s no questioning that he could be on the brink of a career year. Will he turn that corner completely, and shake off career averages?
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Word has been very mum on the recovery of Brandon Webb from shoulder surgery. After being placed on the sixty day disabled list March 26th, little has been discussed on how well he is doing. It’s coming to the point that owners may have too cut ways with Webb. The only thing to come out recently on Webb is that he has taken another trip out to the infamous therapist Dr. James Andrews on flaws in his throwing motion.
These next few weeks will prove pivotal if he is worth keeping or not. With most leagues tight on DL spots and time of the esscence he may have to be giving the green light for waivers. All star break is around the corner and rehab assignments are not even close to being of realization. With the Diamondbacks trading for Dontrelle Willis it could be another sign of Webb not returning any time soon.
If you’re in the middle to bottom tier of your league and need to make an improvement we’re saying make that gut call and cut Webb. His contributions on this season if any may not be until August. That is not going to be enough of an impact for your team to close a tremendous gap in the span of two months. Now if you’re towards the top of your league you can be a little more patient. Even at that if by All Star break the same scenario we’re seeing now is going on release him and tinker with your lineup a bit.
Stats as of 5/13/2010: Avg: .254/HR-4/RBI-12/R-18/SB-2
For those looking for somewhat of a bat in a sparse pool take a look at David Dejesus. He has had an up and down start to the year but is putting up numbers in all categories. His average is not where you’d like it to be, but he is getting on base, and is performing well since being moved from leadoff to the three hole.
Dejesus has solid value and is available in 65% of Yahoo leagues. Snatch him up as a bargain now and see how long you can get performing numbers from him to keep give your current roster a boost.
Fantasy Week in Review (4/4-4/11):
By: Raymond Ayala
The J-Hey Kid: The Future of Fantasy Baseball
If you were lucky enough to take a gamble on an outfielder from Atlanta who is probably younger than you in the later rounds this year, then you must have had a solid first week one in your fantasy league.
Move over Justin Upton, you are no longer the only young OF fantasy owners are drooling over. Some people compare him to Darryl Strawberry, while I see more of a Ken Griffey Jr. in this kid. Folks I want you to meet Jason Heyward the future of fantasy baseball and the potential successor to Albert Pujols as your No. 1 overall pick for seasons to come.
Heyward was selected 14th overall in the 2007 MLB Baseball Amateur Draft. He was drafted by his hometown Atlanta Braves and has quickly become one of the best hitting prospects in baseball. The Braves decided they could no longer wait on this phenom, who not only has plus power, but has probably some of the best bat speed in the majors right now. The Braves decided to give him the starting RF job out of Spring Training this year, and the kid cannot even buy a beer yet (20 years old).
After watching him play in his first week, I have to say he seems pretty comfortable. Most 20 year old kids would struggle in their first week of the bigs, but Heyward not only didn’t struggle, he probably had one of the best weeks of any ML-player (.292, 3 HR’s, 8 RBI). Why do I think he will continue to dominate like this? Because this kid is for real, and his swing is like that of a 3-4 year veteran. He is the most major league ready player to hit the Majors since Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.
Brian Matusz a.k.a The Second Coming of the Big Unit
I had the luck of watching Brian Matusz play at my school for three years. During those three seasons, I thought he was the best lefty I had ever seen in my life and I had seen both Johan Santana and Barry Zito in his prime. Matusz is a 23 year old crafty lefty, who has a 94 MPH fastball with very balanced breaking pitches.
Matusz lost his status of “sleeper” last season when he capped his short 2nd half stint with the Baltimore Orioles, by throwing 7 innings of shutout ball against the New York Yankees. Ever since that game, fantasy owners are no well aware of the fact that this kid is for real.
The only downfall for Matusz may be the fact that he has trouble finding the win column, since he does play for the Orioles. Even though he may not get you the wins like Lincecum, Halladay, Beckett, etc. get you, the strikeouts will be right there with those guys if not more. Look for Matusz to maintain an ERA below 3.50 this year and top the 180 strikeout mark as well. The Orioles pitching staff is quickly becoming something to be reckoned with.
Chris Young: A Possible Resurgence?
Arizona Diamondbacks Outfielder Chris Young is one of those players you scratch your head and wonder if he will ever get his groove back. Largely ignored by most fantasy baseball players, reassured he will be one of the most popular waiver wire pickups after this first week.
Young started off this week strong, hitting .292 with 3 HR’s, 11 RBI. While those numbers look fantastic on paper, remember 9 of those RBI’s and 2 of those HR’s came against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Do not be fooled by this hot start, Young is another example of a player who got paid and is now taking it easy. After hitting 30 HR’s in 2007, Young was demoted to AAA last season after his terrible hitting display. While there is still a chance he continues this pace, I just don’t see it happening. My suggestion would be to pick up Delmon Young (MIN) or Rick Ankiel (KC) before possibly considering Chris Young.
Chapman and Strasburg dominate first Minor League Starts
While this may not apply to your current fantasy team, there are those who drafted these two pitchers in hopes of a call-up sooner than expected. While these two probably will be talked about the most of all the pitchers in the 2011 Fantasy Draft crop, right now they could be mid-season league changers if drafted properly.
My suggestion is draft neither if you are in a relatively shallow league (10 teams or less). If you are in a deep league (10 teams or more), then you may want to spend a late round pick on one of these two. While they probably will get limited ML starts this season, I suspect both will see ML time at some point this season. Both pitchers are similar in the fact that they will be good for monster strikeout numbers, but Strasburg seems to be the more likely of the two to see the majors first.
The only reason Stephen Strasburg is in the minor leagues right now is because of a technicality in his contract, which pays him less if he stays in the minors. The Washington Nationals aren’t going anywhere, anytime this season, so Strasburg is what Nat’s fans are cheering for this season. Equipped with a fastball that touches 99 MPH, Strasburg has begun to develop the breaking pitches that needed refining in his arsenal. Look for Strasburg as a pick up around May if he is still available in your league.
Aroldis Chapman is probably the only pitcher right now who has a faster fastball than Strasburg. Chapman’s fastball is the best in the league, and I’m confident in saying that. Chapman has the ability to hit triple-digits regularly, but his main issue will be developing his off speed stuff and fixing some control issues. Chapman is younger than Strasburg, and was signed knowing he was a project. I think Chapman is off limits this season in fantasy baseball, especially since I am very high on their current No. 5 starter Mike Leake. Keep an eye out on Chapman though, and if you hear any news about injuries to the starting pitchers in Cincinnati, pick up Chapman right away.
