Archive for July, 2009

Hochevar coming into his own

Tuesday, 28 July, 2009

By Ted Cahill

It took a little bit of time, but Luke Hochevar has finally caught the attention of baseball.

The former no. one overall pick has been a quality pitcher for Kansas City this season, but struggled to gain notoriety in the black hole of last place. That started to change Saturday when, Hochevar beat Texas, striking out 13 and walking none in seven innings.

The Royals have been criticized for taking him at the top of the 2006 draft, passing on Tim Lincecum and Evan Longoria. But if his past six starts are any indication, Hochevar may just make Kansas City proud.

In that run, Hochevar is 4-0 with a 3.43 ERA. He has struck out 36 batters, walking only eight. Hochevar has thrown at least six innings in all of the starts and opponents are hitting only .238 off him.

The biggest problem for right-hander has been the long ball. Hochevar has allowed six home runs in 39 1/3 innings. But overall, he has been one of the better, under-the-radar pitchers during July.

This season, Hochevar is 6-3 with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. But if you eliminate his first two starts of the year, his numbers improve to 6-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, numbers very similar to his past six starts.

Making Hochevar’s numbers even more impressive is his very high BABIP of .379 in the last month. When that stat reaches a more typical level in the .270s, Hochevar should see an even greater level of success.

Hochevar is on track to become a good pitcher in years to come. He certainly isn’t going to be getting dropped from Kansas City’s rotation anytime soon. This 25-year old definitely has the talent to be included on fantasy rosters and should receive consideration as the season continues.

Just Perfect:
It’s a pitcher’s dream to retire 27 straight batters, never allowing a batter to reach base. Mark Buehrle became just the 18th pitcher in Major League history to perform this feat, beating Tampa Bay last Thursday.

For fantasy owners Buehrle’s gem was especially sweet, after all who wouldn’t want nine innings of no runs, no hits, no walks and a win? But Buehrle was started in only 75 percent of Yahoo! Leagues that day, meaning that quite a few fantasy owners were kicking themselves. It’s a pretty good bet that when he takes the hill Tuesday in Minnesota, many more fantasy owners will have him in their starting lineups.

But how do pitchers typically fare after their perfect game?

Of the last 10 pitchers that pitched again in the same season after the best performance of their life, only four have won. Overall the 10 pitchers, including Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax, Catfish Hunter and Randy Johnson, are 4-3 with a 5.18 ERA and 49 strikeouts. Some have responded quite well to their perfect game, but others have bombed out in the next start.

Buehrle seems to have the mentality necessary to respond well to his success, but we’ll see how he performs Tuesday in Minnesota. Even still, you have to start him.

As the Mill Turns:
With the trading deadline Friday rumors are flying about which ace will get traded this season. Roy Halladay remains the favorite to get dealt, but Cliff Lee and Jarrod Washburn are increasingly being mentioned as alternatives.

The Phillies seem determined to land one of those three starters, somewhat bad news for their owners. All three are good enough to not be seriously affected by pitching in more of a hitter’s park, but there will likely be some ill effects. The Dodgers are also rumored to be interested in acquiring another starter, but may have to give up Clayton Kershaw to get Lee or Halladay.

No matter which ace finds themselves suiting up in a new clubhouse by the end of the week, you can expect fantasy analysis right here at Not Just a Game.

Pitcher Pickup of the Week: Jeff Niemann, Rays

Niemann wasn’t supposed to be Tampa Bay’s rotation this year. That spot was reserved for left-hander David Price, who has been something of a disappointment so far. However, Niemann, a former first-round selection himself, has finally arrived on the big stage.

Niemann is 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA this year and has thrown two shutouts. In his past three starts, Niemann is pitching even better, sporting a 2.86 ERA.

This week, the right-hander gets to face Kansas City at home. The last time Niemann got the good fortune of facing the Royals on June 3, he threw a two-hit shutout. That game was also at Tropicana Field, where Niemann is 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA this year.

Bobby Jenks' Struggles and Other Closer Situations

Sunday, 26 July, 2009

By Steve Nitz

It’s been a rough week for Bobby Jenks owners. Jenks suffered his second blown save of the week Saturday in Chicago’s loss to the Tigers. Saturday’s outing marked the fifth time in his last six appearances that he has given up an earned run. His ERA is now at 4.33

In a span of two days the Sox have gone from being in first place to possibly being four games out should they lose tomorrow. The question is, how long will Ozzie Guillen stick with Jenks as his closer?

Should Guillen decide to go a different route, Matt Thornton would probably be the choice to get saves on the south side. Thornton has been Chicago’s best reliever all season and currently has a 2.85 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He also has 49 strikeouts in 41 innings. If he’s available in your league, it would be a good idea to go ahead and grab him.

Here are some other closer situations around the majors worth keeping an eye on.

Baltimore-There is still a good chance that George Sherrill could be traded before the deadline, which is bad news for his owners, as he would probably be moved to a team that has a set closer, such as the Yankees, Cubs, Angels, or Brewers. Jim Johnson would be the favorite for saves if Sherrill is traded.

Los Angeles Dodgers-Jonathan Broxton has been great, but his toe injury could be an issue. Plus, you know how Joe Torre likes to overuse his relievers. Keep an eye on Broxton.

Philadelphia-Brad Lidge has still been shaky since coming of the DL, sporting a 5.87 ERA in July. But Charlie Manuel has shown he has faith in him, so his closer spot should be safe for the time being.

Texas-Frank Francisco has been great for the Rangers this season-when he’s been on the mound. Francisco currently has 15 saves and a 2.28 ERA, but went on the DL for the third time this season on July 20 with pneumonia. C.J. Wilson has picked up saves in his absence.

Fantasy Impact of the Matt Holliday Trade

Saturday, 25 July, 2009

By Steve Nitz

In case you haven’t heard, Matt Holliday was traded to St. Louis earlier today. In return, the A’s received third baseman Brett Wallace, right-hander Clayton Mortensen, and outfielder Shane Peterson.

Obviously, this is a tough pill to swallow for players who had Holliday in AL-only leagues. But for everyone else, this comes as a blessing. Holliday, who was hitting .286 wiht 11 homers, 54 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases prior to the trade, should only get better moving from cavernous Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum and a horrible Oakland lineup. In St. Louis, he’ll be able to hit in a better park, and he’ll also be hitting behind Albert Pujols in a good Cardinals lineup. Those in NL-only leagues shouldn’t hesitate to use the No. 1 waiver priority on him.

The only other player in the trade who could have fantasy value is Wallace, the 13th overall pick in last year’s draft. Wallace was rated as the No. 40 prospect in all of baseball by BaseballAmerica before the season. So far, Wallace has hit .289 with 11 homers and 35 RBIs between AA and AAA this year.

Wallace will head to Oakland’s AAA club in Sacramento, and he should see Oakland before the year’s over. A third baseman now, he could wind up a first eventually. He could have some value in AL-only leagues when he does get the call.

Pena's Slump Takes Toll

Friday, 24 July, 2009

By Ted Cahill

Carlos Pena was already in what might be the worst slump of his nine-year career before he faced Mark Buerhle on Thursday.

Taking an 0-for-3 during the 18th perfect game in Major League history didn’t help matters for the Tampa Bay first baseman. It just extended his misery to 3-for-28 with no extra base hits in nine games. Entering the Rays’ weekend series at Toronto, Pena was hitting .222 with 24 home runs.

The left-hander also has struck out 121 times in 95 games this year, putting him on pace to break Jack Cust’s AL strikeout record. Despite all of Pena’s struggles, he is still owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues and 92 percent of Yahoo! Leagues.

It has been stated this year that Pena is not paid by the Rays to hit .300 or even .280 and no fantasy owner drafted him with that in mind. But at what point does his extended slump present a problem to fantasy owners?

Pena’s longest stretch this year without an RBI is nine games, meaning that even with the awful batting average, he continues to provide production. He also leads the league in home runs and has even contributed two stolen bases. If your league uses OBP, that number is more than 100 points higher than his batting average, an excellent sign.

But he’s still only hitting .222 and batting average is universally used in fantasy baseball leagues. What if he doesn’t come out of this slump? Is a player like Casey Blake or Russell Branyan actually a better option?

Both Blake and Branyan (among many other first basemen) have an average at least fifty points higher than Pena and have driven in about 10 fewer runs. Branyan is tied for the league lead in home runs, while Blake has half their total. So far, Branyan and Blake have produced better value than Pena, and Branyan has actually produced better numbers.

But as I’ve already written, I don’t think Branyan will continue to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the year. Blake is a steady producer and is doing exactly what is expected of him. As for Pena, most projections include a better batting average, without any power sacrifice.

His career second half numbers show that this should happen. Pena is a better player in the second half historically, hitting more home runs and adding 20 points to his average.

However, supporting Pena with another player may be worthwhile. He is predictably hitting much worse against left-handed pitching this year. Against right-handers he this .236 with 17 home runs and 45 RBI, but against lefties those numbers drop to .200, seven and 15. Joe Maddon will never make Pena a platoon player, but fantasy owners could consider it, especially competing in a division that includes CC Sabathia and Jon Lester.

That option obviously isn’t for everyone, but if Pena’s batting average concerns you that is one way to work around it. Pena also still has plenty of trade value and if a player like Blake can be included in a deal that shores up your team in other areas, you won’t be sorry.

Duel Backfields

Friday, 24 July, 2009

By Zack Cimini

Progressively teams have learned to lessen the burden on their feature backs by utilizing their second and third string backs more. Some teams are distributing the ball in the backfield at a higher rate because of the potent combination of skills of their backs. Years ago fantasy owners were scared of this trend. How would they fare having a feature back they weren’t sure of getting the same carries every week? Well, it has actually proven to be a good system. Your back stays healthier more and in the end your statistics add up just where you would want them to be.

You don’t necessarily have to handcuff these guys either. Here is a breakdown of who we think are the top duel backfields in the NFL for 2009.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart
After last seasons second half finish there is no doubt these two are the best backfield in the league. When Jake Delhomme couldn’t complete a pass the Panthers changed their offensive philosophy to the Jay Fiedler mode. Hand it off and hand it off some more, and it worked to perfection. These two are fun to watch and will continue to make fantasy owners extremely happy.

Ladainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles
San Diego has quietly been able to have success at the quarterback and running back position based on depth. Two years ago it was with Michael Turner and last year Darren Sproles stepped right in. LT says he is back but if not Sproles showcased that he can get the job done. We’d expect Sproles to be involved with at least 15 touches a game. Expect them to find ways to mix up plays with both of them on the field.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams
The Wildcat opened it for the Dolphins last year, with Brown leading the way. Neither Williams or Brown gained over 1,000 yards but were steady enough to be in the thick of things for fantasy purposes. Both were coming off injury prone years and should be able to build upon a year of being healthy.

Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood
Tuner was by far the biggest bang for the buck for fantasy owners last season. How will he respond to the huge amount of carries he had last season? The answer to that is he may not have to worry as the Falcons will give Norwood more than the 95 he had last year. He averaged a nice 5.1 yards per carry and is a great contrast runner to Turner.

Adrian Peterson and Chestor Taylor
Peterson as we all know is the beast that can’t be contained. During Peterson’s rookie campaign Taylor actually held a good share of the carries. As Peterson has proven himself though, Taylor’s involvement has dwindled by the year. Taylor is a true handcuff back to Peterson, but is still a great number two back.

Right There

Marion Barber and Felix Jones
Willis McGahee and Ray Rice
Joseph Addai and Donald Brown
Chris Wells and Tim Hightower

Flynn NBA Rookie of The Month

Friday, 24 July, 2009

By Zack Cimini

No one yet knows what the Minnesota Timberwolves were thinking by drafting Rubio and Flynn back to back. It’s created a stir around the league and by NBA fans as one of the dumbest use of two high draft picks ever. Whatever the case may be, Jonny Flynn answered the questions perfectly and took his game as the leader of the Timberwolves summer league team. He averaged over 15 points and nearly 8 assists a game. His floor leadership was very impressive and the Timberwolves are assured of at least one solid point guard selection.

It’s looking as if Ricky Rubio will find a way to get to the league. He is intent on leaving his Spanish club regardless of a buyout. This mix in the backcourt of two young players is going to be something very different. Rumors are already swirling that Flynn may be traded when everything is finalized with Rubio.

One thing Flynn will have to work on that hurt him at times at Syracuse is his erratic fast pace style. In college you can get away with it but not in the NBA. He did have a high amount of turnovers in the summer league, but cut them down a bit after the first two summer league games.

Expect Flynn to be one of the top rookies this year, and to have fantasy value for assists and steals.