Archive for August, 2007

Terrible Two's, Not Necessarily

Thursday, 9 August, 2007

Has there ever been a year where there have been so many teams with question marks at the second wide receiver spot? A lot of it has to due with the amount of new youth of talent at the receiver position. This fact though scares fantasy owners as they want guys who they know are going to for sure be beneficial to them. This was the same reasoning for Jerricho Cotchery and Mike Furrey going undrafted in 95 percent of leagues last season. As these receivers with golden opportunities slip in drafts, one has to wonder which receivers are going to have the best chance to prove their mark for fantasy teams. By analyzing and breaking down the teams with inexperienced receivers at the number two spot, we decided to rank accordingly where we think these receivers should be.

1. Devery Henderson, New Orleans
Henderson still has to be out rookie Robert Meachem. Early on though expect Henderson to start and continue to make big contributions for the Saints. Last year Henderson and Colston came onto the scene for fantasy owners and this year will not be a shocker.

2. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh
Holmes is everything the Steelers wanted from Antwan Randle El but couldn’t get from him as a receiver. Holmes brings his attributes not only to the return game but showed in his rookie year that he is something special at wide receiver. He had over 800 yards receiving with only 49 catches. Add a total of at least 65-70 catches from him this year. With a healthy Hines Ward opposite him Holmes is going to have some monster games.

3. Greg Jennings, Green Bay
Green Bay’s main target is still Donald Driver who is probably the oldest consistent durable receiver in the league. Jennings showed enough flashes last year to be confident with him as your third wide receiver. The Packers like to throw the football a lot and Favre loves to spread the ball around. Jennings is poised to breakout in his second season and continue to learn from great veterans in Brett Favre and Donald Driver.

4. DJ Hackett, Seattle Seahawks
Almost a perfect fit to replace Darrell Jackson. He is the exact type of receiver that works well in the Seahawks offense. The Seahawks offense is usually high octane and fast paced. A lot of yardage is going to come from it, and DJ Hackett will be a beneficiary.

5. Philadelphia, Kevin Curtis
He was able to have fantasy relevance for years as the St. Louis Rams third wide receiver. Now his role is bumped up to starting wideout with the Philadelphia Eagles. We’ll find out quickly if Curtis was a product of the Rams system or a legit receiver. The Eagles have certainly had their problems finding Donovan McNabb receivers. One is in place in Reggie Brown but more are needed.

6. Ashley Lelie, San Francisco
A year ago Lelie thought he was about to get a fat check by running his mouth to the Denver organization. Well he was cut and signed with Atlanta where he did little to show his value. He has to be hungry now and mature enough to handle his business the right way. San Francisco is quickly transforming from a young team to a dangerous young team. Lelie will just need to get back to his original mind state when he entered the league. If he does he’ll have a long term deal that he wanted just a year ago in Denver.

7. Dwayne Jarrett, Carolina Panthers
Assuming he holds off Drew Carter for the second receiver spot all you have to do is look at Keyshawn Johnson’s Panthers numbers. Jarrett has the same body size and will be used similarly. As long as Steve Smith takes pressure off of him then Jarrett can get some spot duty bye week starts for fantasy teams.

8. Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders
Moss is gone and suddenly Jerry Porter is back in the fold for the Raiders. Well Art Shell is gone but Porter went practically a full year without stepping onto the field. Curry on the other hand has been a steady improvement year in and year out for the Raiders. If it weren’t for injuries he may already have been a known fantasy gem. The Raiders will be losing a lot. Unlike when Randy Moss’s numbers would go down from losing, Curry’s and the Raiders receivers should go up. More balls being thrown in blowouts should give Curry plenty of bonus receptions and a few extra touchdowns.

9. Craig Davis, San Diego
Eric Parker’s out for ten weeks with an injury and Davis appears to be the front runner to take his spot. Still, the overwhelmingly slanted San Diego offense in favor of Antonio Gates and LT may mean little for the Chargers second wide receiver. Keep your eyes on the development of newly number one wideout Vincent Jackson. If he handles it well then options will be limited for Davis. San Diego’s receivers have yet to be a factor in fantasy football for several years.

10. Brandon Lloyd, Washington Redskins
How he had such a poor first year with the Redskins was stunning. Maybe he should of stayed a 49er as he was emerging as a solid receiver their. Perhaps the transition to the Redskins new offensive system and coaches shunned Lloyd away a bit. Expect a turnaround of some sort as his numbers can not be any worse than last years.

Others

Peerless Price, Buffalo Bills
Michael Clayton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Marty Booker, Miami Dolphins
Bobby Wade, Minnesota Vikings
Kevin Walter, Houston Texans
Roydell Williams and Brandon Jones, Tennessee Titans

Player Spotlight: Julius Jones

Wednesday, 8 August, 2007

As Bill Parcells left the Cowboys reactions were likely mixed with players on the team. One player that was likely ecstatic was Julius Jones. Jones seemed to be in Parcells doghouse from time to time after he blew up on the scene in his rookie season in 2004. After a few monster games in his rookie season during weeks twelve thru fourteen, fantasy owners expected the sophomore in 2005 to be a serious threat. The six touchdowns and nearly 450 yards in the course of those three weeks is what Jones teased owners with. Since then Jones has struggled with numerous things. The one factors that have been his downfall has been Marion Barber who ate up his touchdown possibilities last season.

Throughout it all last year though he amassed nearly 1100 yards in his shared duties and scored four times. How will Jones and Barber complement each other in 2007?

Wade Phillips isn’t going to mess with how well the running game worked last season, so a time share is inevitable at the start of the season. One glaring statistic that stood out from last season is how the Cowboys abandoned using Jones around 50 percent of what they were before week eleven. He went from having around twenty carries to down around the ten mark. That’s certainly not enough carries for fantasy owners to be optimistic about.

During those weeks Barber wasn’t necessarily involved in a bigger role, as his carries stayed around the same. Instead the Cowboys were airing it out more and throwing nearly thirty times a game. With that amount of attempts from a quarterback the number of carries from the running back position will be around twenty. Not thirty five, which was what the dual role of Barber and Jones were averaging before hand.

Taking those numbers into account, you have to figure the Cowboys will get back to grinding the football especially under coach Wade Phillips. Pleasing Terrell Owens is not going to be an issue and the offense will function as a true offense should.

If the Cowboys would have kept Jones at the role he should have been for the final seven games, he would had a career year. Maybe around 1450 yards instead of 1100. The potential of the Cowboys backfield will be one of the best duos in football. There is no possible way that Barber will have sixteen touchdowns again. His season will go down as a blessing amongst fantasy football players, sort of like Miami’s Karim Abdul Jabbar when he came out of nowhere and had 16 touchdowns in 1997. Something has to give and it will be Barber’s stats.

Perhaps this will lead to an expected increase in Jones’s numbers. If you could add an extra three to four touchdowns to Jones stats then he would be a very decent number two back. In most drafts thus far Jones is slipping a few rounds more then he should. We expect him to get around 1200 yards with seven touchdowns in rushing numbers alone. He has never been much of a factor as a pass catching back but who knows if a touchdown or two can came from that area as well.

Culpepper Trial

Monday, 6 August, 2007

Looming around the inevitable corner will be Jamarcus Russell signing a hefty contract. One that should have been done like most number one picks have completed before the draft. The Raiders are going to invest and both sides should have prepared better than this. When talks were still sluggish as camp neared a few weeks ago, the Raiders made the decision to test out Daunte Culpepper. After a free agent workout the Raiders felt comfortable enough in signing him to a one year deal. Before Culpepper bares that next uniform, he’ll be in silver and black. A silver and black quarterback that will likely be the week one starter for the Raiders.

A year ago Daunte Culpepper, was the talk of fantasy football leagues as a sleeper quarterback. Heck he had displayed MVP caliber days in Minnesota and was in new territory to bloom again. His injuries that were supposed to be behind him, only reared more apparently. Week to week Miami kept hoping to see a sign of improvement. Expecting rust to wear off only turned into the obvious–Culpepper was not healthy and may never be again.

Maybe that time off for the rest of the Dolphins season led his body to gaining closer to 100 percent. Last year he looked to be at around seventy percent tops. In mini camp he looked ready to be the Dolphins starter but looking and displaying are two different things. Miami saw something that gave enough red flags to part completely with Culpepper and move on.

Better yet after being cut from Miami there weren’t too many teams calling for Culpepper’s services. You’d think a team like Atlanta would have been fast dialing Culpepper but the only teams were Jacksonville and Oakland. Maybe Culpepper needs an actual agent instead of representing himself. Anyways he figured the best thing for him would be to take his chances in Oakland where he’ll have the best shot at starting.

For Culpepper to stay on the field he’ll need to first show that he can play at game speed and move in the pocket somewhat. With Miami last year he was motionless in the pocket and paying the price for it. Numerous sacks, fumbles, and slow delivery was an every down occurrence. Not only that with Russell awaiting to enter time is not on Culpepper’s side in an Oakland uniform.

The positives for Culpepper are that he is on a team that had one of the best defenses in the league last year. So he’ll be able to play it safe early and just do enough to try to position his team for wins. Another area is that Lamont Jordan looks to be in a crossroads stage of his career. He needs to have a year to catapult himself as a feature starter. The Raiders lacked commitment to running the football last year and apparently are going to change that philosophy. Culpepper has never in his career had a solid running back behind him. That goes for last year as well when Miami could not get the running game going during Culpepper’s month of games.

The over/under on Culpepper making it out of October as the starting Raiders quarterback should weigh slightly on the over side. Compare it a little to Denver last year when Jake Plummer played most of the year before relenting to Jay Cutler. Jamarcus Russell and the Raiders know that he can not possibly get prepared enough in a months time. He’ll need to run through practices effectively for at least a few months. The only way he makes it on the field in the first half of the season is if the Raiders only have a win or two. Then knowing a disastrous season can’t be averted is out the window, and they’ll be able to afford a Russell air assault in a bad way.

Most drafts Culpepper is being ignored due to the fact that people expect Russell to play immediately or Culpepper to be similar to last season. He has something to prove to the NFL world and why not give him a shot. No one is drafting Culpepper in fantasy drafts. You can’t blame owners for that based on last year, but take a late flier on him if you are a fantasy owner that waits until the last minute to draft a quarterback. If your somebody with an Eli Manning, Alex Smith, or any other shaky young fantasy quarterback then go ahead and select Culpepper. There’s always a quarterback or two that comes out of the woodwork to shine off the waivers. Don’t let Culpepper be that guy, if he doesn’t work out then that late pick turns into a waiver move and is potential boomer pick that didn’t quite work out.