Archive for August, 2007

New Deadly Combo

Monday, 27 August, 2007

A change for the better has finally began to take place in Buffalo. They may have let two solid running backs walk from the team. Having let Willis McGahee and Travis Henry go could have been questionable, but the Bills feel that Marshawn Lynch can grow with the youth of this Bills team. Lee Evans has been making big plays during his short young career. Now that it seems that JP Losman has turned it on and matured the two have built a budding scary connection on the field. Changes have been many for this team offensively over the last five years. Finally, they’re going to be building forward this season on.

From a fantasy standpoint, Lee Evans already proved what he is capable of doing in 2006. He is an unquestionable number one fantasy wide receiver, yet is still slighted by fantasy owners. The days of surpassing receivers that have been a top the fantasy charts is coming. Move over Mr. Harrison and Holt, as Lee Evans may be the top receiver this year in the AFC. Reason being is that he is the Bills only main receiver target, as opposed to the majority of other teams that have even great strength at the second receiver spot.

Why are fantasy owners ignoring the facts and letting Evans slip? It’s foolish to not nab Evans by the third or early part of the fourth round. Especially if you’re an owner that stock piles early on running backs and misses out on the top five or six receivers. The Bills offense might not have the effectiveness of what has become the norm at the running back position. Marshawn Lynch will go through his rookie struggles but worries of his preseason struggles should not be alarming. If anything the balanced proportion of pass over run will just grow more in the passing department. Evans numbers of nearly 1300 yards and 8 touchdowns are surely not going to decline.

Last year when JP Losman starting coming along towards the second half of the season, a soaring link occurred. The Bills became more competitive, winning five games and losing three tight ones. Two by a point and another by three. This translated into Evans having plenty of monster games and scoring six touchdowns during the second half of the year.

Look out for both in your final drafts this upcoming week or so. Evans should start going more around his worth due to his preseason, but quarterbacks are under valued. Losman should be taken as a sure fantasy backup and may over take your starter if you do not snatch a top eight quarterback. The Bills should be exciting this year and be in a good spot for the future. With Chad Pennington struggling and Trent Green trying to adapt in Miami, the division could be a good spot for the Bills to have a good chance at going 4-2, or even 5-1 in it if they can steal one from the Patriots.

Poised for a Breakout

Wednesday, 22 August, 2007

The third year breakout anticipation has been a crossroads path for highly touted drafted NFL players. That path can change presumptions of a player heading towards being a bust or worthy of the high pick. More than franchises would like to happen the player turns out to be less qualified for their drafted position. In the good spots, players turn it around and earn that heavy contract. It is more apparent of a third year quarterback experiencing this growth. For San Francisco, the rookie season of Alex Smith could not have looked any dimmer. Last year he showed the signs, and now he is about to deliver. Third year quarterback Alex Smith and the 49ers squad may actually live up to the high aspirations of the 49ers taking over the NFC West.

Watching quarterbacks in preseason usually can not lead to much of any assessment, critical or non. They just do not play enough series to get a true understanding of where they are at. For the most part, teams number one quarterbacks do not need much attention, as preseason is about filling quality depth. Alex Smith though has came out and treated this 2007 preseason like a true leader. Focusing on performing and gaining his teams and coaches confidence before the season even starts. Any new players or old veterans that may not be sure what this team is capable of, is now.

If the quarterback challenge was still going on, it’d be interesting to see how sharp Smith would be. He has been hitting different targets all over the filled. Moving around in the pocket and showing quick awareness to anticipate defenders and check downs. A complete reversal of his first year abysmal numbers when he looked like a Bruce Gradkowski second day draft pick thrown in the fire to start. Obviously those early struggles the 49ers took paid off in perfect transition time to see a team ready to launch.

With Vick out, Favre on his way, and an NFC that has shakiness all over, the 49ers are a team that has built. Building forward is going to happen for them, and a realistic chance at being the team of the NFC is right around the corner for them.

If they’re going to get there, Smith needs to keep excelling and working hard on the field. He has fired up his team and even dared to throw on Champ Bailey’s side in the 49ers first preseason game. A quick slant purely accurate strike to new receiver Darrell Jackson. Timing was everything on that play that even Bailey couldn’t stop.

All that’s happening for Smith is nothing if he can’t move forward during his crossroads. He has to put together another progressing year. In doing so, his team will surely be a strong force. They may not have to make the playoffs but to be alive for it late in the season will be enough to get them going towards the next step. Smith is on his way to being a true quarterback and amongst the great young quarterbacks in today’s league. Stamp it, a 2007 legitimate fantasy sleeper.

Chiefs, Dolphins Fantasy Analysis

Thursday, 16 August, 2007

Series will be played now in preseason games by the first team. Miami and Kansas City unveiled and on Thursday night let their starters play a few series. For both teams it ended up being a nightmare ugly drawn out game. There were a few positives to take out of the game. One bold outlook is that both teams still have two preseason games left.

For Miami, Trent Green came out gunning and went 0 for 3. It looked like Miami may have been forcing the issue on the first series to get Green going. On the next drive though, Miami and Green got things working. Green mixed in an array of throws to and went four for four on the drive. Even though Miami could not punch in a score inside the goal line, it was the end of Green’s night. It looks as if Miami is going to be very creative this year on offense and Green seems comfortable enough already. The only reason he may have been shaky on the first series was due to the fact on facing his old team in Kansas City.

What was more impressive then anything for Miami was their offensive and defensive line, which dominated both sides of the football. That is not new to the Dolphins defense but the offensive line has been below average for quite some time now. It looks as if they’re starting to mesh as a unit and created plenty of holes for Ronnie Brown. Brown’s best run of the night came on Green’s effective drive. He was patient to get to the hole, shed a few tacklers and made a quick cutback and switched to a second gear. Ty Law dragged him down or the 22 yard gain would have been a sure score for the Dolphins.

Besides the first team offense it looked as if Miami’s second and third team was not willing to operate. Then rookie, John Beck came in and maneuvered the Dolphins with ease to get a touchdown and a go ahead two point conversion. Expect Beck to play with the second team next week and play for a longer period of time. Miami needs to know how much talent Beck has, but he definitely possesses the smarts and intangibles to be the future starting quarterback in Miami.

For Kansas City, things appear to be happening to slow with only two weeks of preseason action left. This game will likely speed the process up of agreeing to a new deal with Larry Johnson. Their offense has been absolutely atrocious the first two preseason games. At quarterback Damon Huard either could not get in the groove or just had a poor night. The play calling was not in his favor but he just didn’t manage the team as a first string quarterback should. Brody Croyle on the other hand seemed to feed off of Huard’s inabilities. The first series of Croyle’s action is when the Chiefs offense revved up and marched down the field for a quick touchdown. That drive would be the end of Croyle’s momentum as he cooled down immediately and threw a poor interception in the end zone.

The main fantasy analysis to take from this game is that Miami is going to shoot to get this offense rolling. They only managed to score 16 points per game last season and that should boost up into the low 20’s. If that can happen that will translate into more touchdowns for Mr. Ronnie Brown. No one really knows where to rank Brown but he is falling into the second round in most drafts. With the almost guaranteed RB, RB, choice selections for rounds one and two, Brown makes a top notch second back.

A late flier or safe choice for quarterback in Trent Green might not be a bad consideration either.

Donovan McNabb: Fantasy Castoff

Wednesday, 15 August, 2007

Heading into the 2006 season a year ago all the negative eyes were on Donovan McNabb. He was without Terrell Owens and people figured the Eagles were on their way down as a franchise. They had been to the NFC Championship numerous times and a Super Bowl but failed to get the win. From the days of being booed on his draft day, to overcoming a slump through Rush Limbaugh comments, to last years doubts, they still do not stop coming for McNabb.

Without TO, McNabb was on his way to his best season ever. Each week he was throwing two to three touchdowns with around 300 yards passing. The naysayer did not even have a chance to down him as he was superb from week one on. His team was excelling and ended up staying on beat even without McNabb. As the season faded for McNabb he was left in the dust again to watch his team. A frustrating thing for a quarterback that has had the chances to get the big game won but can not complete it.

For a time rumors were that the Eagles might have a quarterback battle between Jeff Garcia and McNabb. After all Garcia kept things rolling for the Eagles and played well while doing it. Driving this controversy did not play long as Garcia was told he would not be resigned. Boosting the confidence of McNabb on the faith the Eagles franchise has on him. Not even a few months later though the Eagles spent a particularly high pick (second round) on drafting quarterback Kevin Kolb. A definite shot in the face to McNabb but also a wake up call. McNabb has had his fair share of injuries and been the starting quarterback since 1999.

Tearing his ACL in November and being ready to get back on the field by September is a quick turn around. McNabb’s work ethic leaves no doubt that he has done everything he can in rehabilitation to be where he needs to be. This injury is as severe as they get, and even though Daunte Culpepper tore all three major ligaments in the knee, we all saw that it can completely change a quarterback’s skill set. McNabb is 30 and close to 31. His body isn’t as young as Caron Palmer’s who had a hard time making his comeback in time for the 2006 season. Yet, McNabb is scheduled to enter the field and give it a go in the second week of preseason action.

This is what all fantasy owners and the Eagles organization want to see. A brief, quick, enter and go action from McNabb. Just to see if he can run the offense a series or two and watch how that knee responds to all sorts of contact and movements. Drop back contact with the turf or grass, how it responds to sharp twists and change of direction, and all the little things that Donovan McNabb does. He is what everyone wanted to see from Michael Vick, but everyone just doubted and downed him. Hopefully McNabb can get that chance to return to full strength and keep showing his greatness.

For fantasy purposes, McNabb stays as a prominent force. If healthy he is going to be one of the better and reliable fantasy studs at quarterback. The Eagles throw the football a lot and McNabb gets a lot of bonus passing yards by throwing to Brian Westbrook. If you can still McNabb in the third or fourth round then do not hesitate. He has side stepped every problem that faces him, and this will be another. AJ Feeley, Kevin Kolb, and Kelly Holcomb can keep their clipboards all season long.

Tight End Position Deeper Than Ever

Monday, 13 August, 2007

Only ten years ago the tight end position was rather non existent. There were stars at the position and the rest were situational pass catching targets but mainly blocking specialists. Ben Coates, Frank Wycheck, and Shannon Sharpe were the rare serious threat tight ends to have on your fantasy football roster. Drafting a tight end was like picking a kicker for fantasy owners. Now rankings are not clear cut and can actually shift on a week to week basis. Call it a vast improvement from five to seven years ago, as tight ends are catching more balls then ever and sometimes even considered the number one pass catching target on teams. For guys like Tony Gonzalez, Kellen Winslow, Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler, and Antonio Gates that is a definite fact.

Since Antonio Gates transcended the position with his dominance in 2005, more teams have caught on to utilize the tight end more. Instead of the tight end position having six or seven strong candidates for fantasy owners, there is enough talent to consider drafting a backup tight end for sleeper consideration. That’s how advanced and deep the position has become. All the worries of having to jump on a tight end do not have to happen anymore. Notjustagame.com analyzes some tight ends that you can get late in drafts after owners have snatched up the first tier. Times change quickly when teams see quick advances. There are a viable twenty tight ends to stick on your draft cheat sheets.

An average legitimate figure to predict from the first tier of tight ends is numbers of 900 yards receiving and six touchdowns. We have considered nine tight ends in our first tier, with a specialization category asterisk on the names of Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez. As they will likely have a slighter edge in both yards and touchdowns from the other first tier tight ends. Who follows Gonzalez and Gates are (by no specific ranked order) are Chris Cooley, Jeremy Shockey, Jason Witten, Alge Crumpler Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow, and Todd Heap. The trend amongst them is that they all are growing substantially in their teams offensive plans and their great athletes. Numbers from them will be steady or better from their prior seasons. Even with Alge Crumpler who is going to be without Vick but does not change the fact that he is a big target and knows how to get open. He’s done it without any wideouts supporting him and now he has Joe Horn to spread it out for him.

Behind the mentioned nine tight ends above are tight ends that can sneak into the bottom ten in ranking. Tight ends making our second tier are Benjamin Watson, LJ Smith, Dallas Clark, Heath Miller, Eric Johnson, Daniel Graham, and Randy McMichael. For the most part these guys all have strong offenses that love to pile up the yardage and scoring numbers. Getting away with snatching one of these guys as a starting tight end might not be as bad as owners may think. Most owners do not draft back up tight ends and certainly will not do it rounds after getting a tier one tight end.

That means you can holdout extra rounds to build on other areas without worrying about who your tight end is going to be. In other areas when quarterbacks and receivers start getting snared is when you see a dominoes affect begin from owners. With the likelihood of more tight ends having decent years like last season smiling and adding that extra back or getting a top defense can be done while tight ends get snatched.

For the first time there is even a third tier of tight ends. Not any of these tight ends should be drafted but maybe the second tier tight end you draft as your starter does not work out. Then scrambling on the waiver wire must be done and these third tier guys will be there. Marcus Pollard in Seattle has a chance to be a strong sleeper. Jerramy Stevens may have never filled the tight end role but Pollard has the veteran skills to do so. He has reliable hands that the Seahawks are not use to (Led the league in drops 06), and should have his fair share of decent games.

Over in Chicago, Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark as a duo is a twist that keeps both of these athletes in the third tier. We’ll have to see how the Bears figure both in the offense to bump either or in tier rankings. Last but not least David Martin in Miami creeps on the radar. He is a newcomer but the quarterback of the Dolphins is not at throwing to tight ends. Trent Green has the automatic wandering eyes to the middle of the field from throwing to Tony Gonzalez for the last five years. Miami always seemed tight at involving Randy McMichael more but you can bet Green’s instinctual heavy reliance on a tight end will make Martin involved.

Team Fantasy Shakiness

Sunday, 12 August, 2007

On every team offensively there are usually guys that fantasy owners can be certainly excited about. There is a team out there though that has fantasy questions at the quarterback, running back, and receiver position. That team is the Jacksonville Jaguars. The biggest area owners know that they can get points from is the running back position. How is the second year tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor going to work together? Also, Byron Leftwich makes his way back under center with a potential short leash. Over at wide receiver the players that have been young and on the bend, are now veterans that have yet to get to the status the Jaguars expect.

Thus far Byron Leftwich has been a bottom tier fantasy quarterback. Besides a few solid games against the Colts the Jaguars offense usually is low scoring with a lot of clock eating. That meant Leftwich was never really able to shine unless the Jaguars were forced to move the ball, as they always are against the Colts. Another factor against Leftwich is their continued praise of David Garrad and making Leftwich sit down last season. It was the right decision as Leftwich was not 100 percent but he was willing to play. Avoiding injuries this season will be the obvious deciding factor on Leftwich’s fantasy value.

He can easily serve as a non questionable fantasy backup. Throughout his career he has shown that he can be a very dangerous quarterback. The Jaguars philosophy is not going to change with the offense so the unexpected is not going to happen with Leftwich.

Part of the reason why Leftwich may be struggling to be a fantasy elite quarterback is because he has only had one serious threat at receiver in his career. That guy was a fantasy stud for over ten years in Jimmy Smith but exited away from the game last season. Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, and Reggie Williams. What’s a pathetic statistic is when you’re running back is the teams leading receiver, which was the case for the Jaguars last year with Maurice Jones Drew leading the team. Reggie Williams came in second with not even 600 yards receiving. Word out of the Jaguars camp is that Williams has been disappointing in training camp and may be on his way out.

Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford appear to be the clear cut number one and two receivers heading into 2007 by default. Last year everyone expected Matt Jones to fulfill high aspirations but early season injuries plagued him the rest of the year. All Leftwich and the Jaguars need is one of the receivers to step up as a consistent big play guy. Ernest Wilford is a fine complement but more of like a number three wide receiver in the NFL. It looks like the Jaguars are going to be like the San Diego Chargers. Not enough talent at the position to have anyone have great numbers at receiver, so expect low numbers spread out at the receiver position.

Where the Jaguars should be more then adequate is at running back. Maurice Jones-Drew has surpassed Fred Taylor on the board as he will get plenty of touchdown opportunities. He is also the apparent choice to be the main running back as soon as Fred Taylor’s contract is up. Do not under value Taylor though, who is still a major back in the NFL. Talent wise he is a top ten running back but his durability may be the worse. He has managed to stay rather healthy the last few years and part of that has to do with the Jaguars pacing his carries. With Jones-Drew likely to gain more carries expect Taylor to have a high yardage total as a result.

With Jones Drew being a low second round and high third round choice in most drafts, Taylor’s value should not be far from a fifth round choice. As his game has not changed only the Jaguars have become an even better force at running the football. Taylor will give fantasy owners the statistics he has come to be counted on for. Around 1100 yards and four to five touchdowns. Definite solid sounding numbers to us.