Archive for July, 2007

Now the Backfield Is In Trouble

Wednesday, 25 July, 2007

Over the last ten years the most consistent and best running backs are harder to name than you would think after being asked that question. Out of all the backs in the league there are only a couple left going on their tenth season plus as being an elite back. Curtis Martin just exited and was probably the best of them all. Quietly though at his small size, Warrick Dunn, has been right there to go along with Corey Dillon and Fred Taylor. Waiting for a downward season from Dunn hasn’t happened yet, but is it happening before it even starts heading into his eleventh season?

Just a little bit over a year ago the tandem in Atlanta for years was DVD. TJ Duckett was the bull rush compliment to Warrick Dunn, and Vick was doing what we’ve seen him do since college. The Falcons then parted ways with TJ Duckett. In what was thought to be a questionable move was erased quickly after Jerious Norwood filled in better than Duckett ever had. Now the allegations on Michael Vick are troubling enough to think that Vick’s days may be over not only with the Falcons but maybe in the NFL.

A day after Arthur Blank called a press conference on the issue, running back Warrick Dunn is now declared out three to four weeks after having back surgery.

Wala, all of the sudden the Falcons went from being a team that was going to have a hard enough time competing in the tough NFC South, to being a team without an identity. A back injury has to always be taken cautiously and at Dunn’s age maybe stretched out even further. The opening day for the Falcons is looking like a Joey Harrington, Jerious Norwood, and Joe Horn debut.

Bobby Petrino has to be ecstatic on how well this is shaping up after leaving Louisville to head into this mess of stress.

The impact of Dunn’s injury means that Norwood will be tested even more during preseason. The Falcons were planning on Norwood being more involved then last season, and now they’ll be able to see if he can be that guy. It’s almost an eerie situation to compare Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson. Faulk went from an All-Pro veteran to fading away to a limited role from injuries in a matter of a years time. The team was suddenly Jackson’s and Faulk decided to retire ultimately.

The good thing about this is that Dunn didn’t put off the discomfort in his back and ignore it entirely until a severe or lingering injury happened in the preseason or regular season. Now, Dunn may be able to come back at the estimated time table of three to four weeks. If so, he’ll be able to get in a game or two of preseason action.

Both backs have a shaky value in terms of fantasy, but more upside than you‘d think. Dunn had a great season last year but only had five touchdowns and a low yardage total of receiving yards. Norwood had a crazy average per carry and showed his incredible size, quickness, and open field speed. With Vick likely out of the lineup, 1,000 rushing yards or thirty to thirty five attempts from the quarterback position must happen.

Expect Petrino and his staff to decide to run the ball even more, and hope that will lead to big plays for the passing game. With Vick out of the lineup, Norwood should easily eclipse 1,000 yards and score between eight and ten touchdowns. As for Dunn draft him as a deep thought as a fourth running back. His value has always been steady and you‘ll be getting strong value with him. Plus, players that are hurt going to fantasy drafts usually slide more than they should. Grabbing him as your fourth running back will give you great depth and insurance if needed.

Fitz or Boldin?

Monday, 23 July, 2007

Making that tough decision on number one receivers is tough enough. How do you do it when there are two caliber number ones on the same team? Very few teams have the close gap of a number one and two receiver as the Cardinals do. You could throw Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison as a close second, but the edge still belongs to Harrison because of his longevity. They’re so good that once one is picked the other should be going within a few picks after. The questions are who has more value with the second year starter, Matt Leinart, and how will both fare with a new head coach?

You’re not going to go wrong with either player. Boldin has dominated since being a rookie second round pick, and Fitzgerald has lived up to the expectations that have been built on him since college. As Cardinals together you’d still have to call it a toss up on who’s better when both are on the field? The reason why is that Boldin was hurt for two seasons in a row for stretches, until last season. Then last year was the year Fitzgerald was slowed down with an injury that may have affected him for a few weeks after his return.

With that in mind both are still building rapports with Matt Leinart. Also with new coach Ken Whisenhunt the offense and team will be transforming into a new mode. While at Pittsburgh the style was grind it out with a great running game, which the Cardinals have and still likely do not have. They have the weapons at wide receiver and Whisenhunt knows this just like the rest of the league. Expect him to still want to have some form of a strong running game but to also unleash in the passing game unlike his days at Pittsburgh.

Many owners and magazines have Larry Fitzgerald as the man ranked number one in terms of fantasy football. He is a big play guy that owns defensive backs when it comes to positioning with his size or deep balls. So Fitzgerald’s value is more of in the touchdown category then receiving yards, which is always considered better since getting that six points for a touchdown is crucial in fantasy football. Just consider last season Fitzgerald played in thirteen games and only caught six touchdowns. In fact he was on his way to having a lower amount than that, until he finished the season with four touchdowns in the last five weeks.

Another key factor to think about is a position the Cardinals will use now that Whisenhunt is there. They’ll utilize the tight end position which is one factor from Pittsburgh Whisenhunt will not have go away. Leonard Pope and drafted tight end Ben Patrick will be involved and will obviously take away some touchdowns from either Boldin or Fitzgerald. The Cardinals tight end value from a fantasy standpoint is still bottom tier in the league and not worth taking a look at. With an extra 25-30 catches in the hands of a tight end this will certainly drop some numbers for the Cardinals wide receivers.

The reason why Boldin should be ranked higher than Fitzgerald is for a few reasons. He always ranks near the top of the league for catches per year. The balls will keep coming his way because he is one of the best receivers at getting open in the ten to fifteen yard range. Those types of catches don’t show up on highlight reels, but they add up. If you noticed last year against the Chicago Bears, the Cardinals came with that exact approach. They drilled the ball to Boldin in the median routes and it resulted in a huge day for him. One thing that hurt Leinart’s stock in the draft just a tad was the strength of his arm. For Boldin that only boosts his stock for fantasy football, and gives him the slightest of an edge over Fitzgerald.

Obviously, if healthy, both are going to be top ten receivers, but Boldin will be closer to the top.

Matt Schaub: Rob Johnson or A Good Move?

Monday, 16 July, 2007

Not often can a backup quarterback get the deal of a lifetime without even showcasing a full season of starting work. Somehow the Houston Texans figured the clips they saw of Schaub was enough. They axed out David Carr instead of using that money to build him an offensive line. Something he never had the honors of having in front of him. Maybe they figured his body took too much of a beating and did not want to vest any other amount after Tony Boselli (Never played a down for them, as the expansion pick of the Texans).

By ridding themselves of their former franchise number one pick, David Carr, they did one thing, and that’s just a quarterback shuffle to Matt Schaub. What did the Texans see to believe Schaub is a better choice than remaining with Carr or drafting a quarterback? Schaub is either going to pay the price for every dollar he is going to receive over the next six years, or he is going to get this team to the level they were a few years ago when they showed some life at 7-9.

We’ve all seen it before where backup quarterbacks that have somewhat of a skill set, have great debuts when the start in relief duty. This springs interest usually to some franchises to sign that player as a free agent. The Rob Johnson’s and Kelly Holcomb’s of the world come and go, and if Schaub happens to be that then this could really blow up in Houston’s face. The city already witnessed the Texans bypass Bush when they knew Domanick Williams was struggling with injuries. Bush could careless now, as he is on a franchise that has winning in front of them, and the Texans can only stay at the bottom.

Schaub has the size and skill to have a solid career, but so did David Carr. If Houston isn’t willing to invest more on a team than a player, then Schaub will be wishing he was never traded. Having Ahman Green as the starting running back is questionable as well. Yes he has been one of the better running backs in the early to mid 2000’s, but his days as an elite running back are more behind then ahead of him. He struggled through injuries the past few seasons with the Packers and was expendable at that point. On top of that he is very prone to fumbling the football.

All we are saying is that fantasy owners should not bank on Matt Schaub being a sleeper quarterback. Talk of Schaub being the free agent signing that transforms into a fantasy stud like Drew Brees last year should stop before they start. He is unproven which Brees had been a Pro Bowler already. We also have yet to see how he handles being an every Sunday starter, or how he adjusts to defensive coordinator’s adjustments after they get their hands on Schaub footage.

Once coordinator’s can feel and dissect Schaub out then we’ll be able to see if he has a fantasy future. Right now the only concern for fantasy owners should be if they think they should be worried with Schaub as their backup. With that offensive line Schaub might not be able to tough it out like Carr did. So if you do draft Schaub as your backup you better have a great starting quarterback.

Green's Last Stop

Wednesday, 11 July, 2007

The Dolphins made a decision that arose plenty of criticism from draft experts and football fans of all sorts. Decisions are ultimately often criticized but did the Dolphins make a major mistake in passing on Brady Quinn? You could argue that if a team right after the Dolphins chose Quinn, but he landed in the 20’s. The whole time Miami knew who they wanted and that was Trent Green. It took longer than expected but the Chiefs and Dolphins finally came to an agreement. Time will tell, but for at least the next two seasons Miami is going to have a solid veteran quarterback who will allow John Beck time to learn and grow.

At 37 years of age, people would say Green is all but washed up. Years of quarterbacking would have had to take its toll on the average quarterback. Especially after seeing him having the daylights knocked out of him on a perfect layout hit last season. The truth of the matter is, Trent Green is a young 37 year old quarterback, as odd as that sounds.

He didn’t play a game in the NFL until 1998, and after a solid season with the Redskins landed with the Rams. From there we all become a little familiar with his story, as he went down with a preseason injury and the team turned into Kurt Warner’s. He was granted his leave from the Rams and spent the last five seasons having stellar seasons with the Chiefs.

In fact he stayed away from injuries and played every game from 2001 through 2005. During those seasons he quietly ranked amongst the elite in terms of throwing yards and overall performance. That was with a strong running game and basically a tight end in Tony Gonzalez. Both of those factors are gone, but Miami obviously feels Green is the main man. Can Green be the revival veteran that Jeff Garcia proved to be for the Eagles last season?

Since the Marino and Jimmy Johnson era ended the Dolphins have been scrambling to find an identity offensively. Meanwhile the defense has stayed strong and full of players such as Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor that have been Dolphins since the mid 90’s. The shift of transformation that hasn’t happened offensively may now catch up to an aging defense. This may be the reason the Dolphins signed an older veteran like Green to try and match the age of the defense, and go for some sort of playoff run in the next year or two.

With the strength of teams in the AFC that looks highly unlikely, but anytime a team is loaded with great veterans you never know what could happen. Miami has tried the veteran look several times in the last few years at the quarterback position. Jay Fiedler, Gus Frerotte, AJ Feeley, Daunte Culpepper, and the short lived Brian Griese all looked horrific. Fiedler did the best he could and actually got the Dolphins into the playoffs, but he was more of a leashed quarterback that looked good with Lamar Smith and Ricky Williams.

That trend seems to be a foreseen disastrous setup for Trent Green. There are signs of hope for him though. Nick Saban put life into the Dolphins even though they struggled early on last season. Even with his departure this team knows they can be a near or wild card team. New head coach Cam Cameron is a great fit for the Dolphins and he will look to spice up the Dolphins offense. The addition of Ted Ginn Jr. adds the new threat that teams need this day and age. So many games are decided by a field goal or a possession. Miami feels they can control the field position battle and get some big plays out of Ginn at the receiver position.

Where the problem may lay is on a totally revamped offensive line. They have a different projected starter at each position on the line, which could be a good thing. The Dolphins offensive line has been below average the last several seasons, which has kept Ronnie Brown from breaking out yet. As long as the offensive line holds its ground, then Green will be well worth the fourth round pick the Dolphins spent on him.

From a fantasy standpoint Green is a middle to high teen ranked quarterback. For several reasons he has to be ranked at that position. The Dolphins have a new staff and Green has to show he has fully recovered from his severe concussion last season. Plus, the negative results of Dolphins quarterbacks has to be on the front of fantasy managers minds. Green can be a spot or bye week starter but projections of his Chief days numbers will not happen. He is now relegated to being a second or third tier fantasy quarterback amongst the new class and younger veterans in the NFL.