Archive for September, 2006

Fantasy Perspective Week Two

Friday, 15 September, 2006

Here are some guys to take a look at for starting in week two. Notice the athletes are not top tier, we provide the sleeper choices to go with. Just like in week one with Chad Pennington, Frank Gore, etc.

Quarterbacks

Jon Kitna
Roy Williams opened up his mouth about how easy it should have been to score 40 last week. Well they can’t run the football, so that means Kitna will have to utilize Williams. They’ll open it up a bit and expose the Bears secondary.

Philip Rivers
Anyone facing the Titans this season is a good choice to start. Even in his limited throws last week, Rivers looked great. A lot of that has to do with their ability to establish the running game, which will be an easy task to do. Shottenheimer will get Rivers the looks he needs and continue on a slow pace with him.

Brett Favre
If there was a game last season that he went off, it was in the game against New Orleans. Yes, the 52-0 beat down the Packers put on. Favre has a lot to show every week, and should be a bit better with Koren Robinson alongside Donald Driver. He isn’t going to stop his wreckless throws but there should be some good ones as well this week.

Daunte Culpepper
Chris Chambers stats against the Bills last season were exponential. A good third of his stats came against them, including the 15 reception 238 yard performance in December of 05. Culpepper has a stronger arm then Frerotte did. The Dolphins do not have great receivers out there, so Culpepper will be looking for Chambers like he did with Moss in Minnesota. Look for the Chamber ratio to rise weekly.

Running Backs

Kevan Barlow
Pennington was the one doing the scoring for the Jets but that was sort of a mirage. The Jets ball control style is more in the favor of running backs. Barlow will be their goal line and short yardage back. If the Jets can get into the Patriots red zone, expect Barlow to have a couple of touchdowns.

Frank Gore
Even though the Rams defense came up with several turnovers on the Broncos they still had a hard time shutting down the run. Tatum Bell had over 100 yards rushing and Mike Bell near sixty. Gore was one of the most impressive backs week one, and soon that will be a regularity. Gore is the real deal and is benefiting from a solid offensive line.

Samkon Gado
We’re assuming the Texans didn’t swap running backs for nothing. They want Gado to be their starter and he should get carries right away. The Colts rush defense was horrible last week and things will not change that soon. It could be a career day for Mr. Gado.

Chester Taylor
Hutchinson has made an instant impact for the running game and overall confidence for Brad Johnson. Carolina was eaten alive last week by Vick, Dunn, and Norwood, with all having fifty yards or more. With Dan Morgan out, that’s one less threat for Taylor to worry about. Just like in the case of the Jets,

Wide Receivers

Roy Williams
Williams has to respond after opening his mouth. Going up against Nathan Vashar, his teammate in college should help.

Lee Evans
Evans can open up the offense for the Bills whenever he wants. If you track his first couple of seasons he has had some decent games against Miami. Miami’s secondary may be at the weakest level it has been in awhile, so get ready for the Evans show.

Koren Robinson
A suspension is ahead for Robinson, so this will be his value for the next month. At least we’ll see if he can work in the Packers system as quickly as he did in the Vikings.

Eric Parker
He has been lurking on the scene for some time, but never has done much. Gates and LT get so much attention that sooner or later Parker is going to have a huge game. Will it be this week?

Tips on Covering Spreads

Wednesday, 13 September, 2006

Week one wasn’t just an ugly week on the football field. With eleven road teams winning, Vegas sure as heck cashed in on lots of cash. Last year may have been the year to take favorites on a weekly basis, as they covered 59 percent of the time. If you had done any research though you would have found out that was also the first time that had happened since 1989.

So picking favorites as much as people did in week one is going to land you below .500 on your bets. Notjustagame.com went 10-5, and actually it was 11-4, but we did not change the Washington pick to Minnesota.

After a week like last week it is always key to review how Vegas beat you. There are two key things to look out for, in order to beat the spread. The most important is to not listen to the public. That could be your friends, television, newspaper, or whatever gets thrown into your ears. Secondly, don’t assume that a game is a lock. There is never such a thing.

We’ve broke down five games of last week and ranked them accordingly in Vegas gems of spreads. Also all five were Notjustagame wins.

1. Indianapolis Colts -3 at NY Giants
Looking at this spread all week it looked like the trickiest game on the board. The main reason in thinking that was because the spread was not moving. That means even money is keeping that spread from swaying either way. For those that bet on the Giants covering the three points had to of been sick. The Colts were a play away from kneeling the ball and running out the clock, but were stopped and forced to kick a field goal on a third and two. That was the difference in the Giants covering by a point, and losing by two.

2. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals -7 and above
If you bet on this game early on in the week then you got the spread at the wrong time. It kept jumping and jumping as high as nine points. Everyone figured the Cardinals would blow the 49ers out of their new stadium. The hoopla was too much though and the 49ers stayed with the Cardinals the entire game. What made it worse was the Cardinals tacked on a late field goal to gain a ten point lead. The 49ers then quickly ran down and decided to kick a field goal, and do an onside kick. It almost worked on the field as they recovered the onside kick, but it burned the over 77 percent of people, according to Yahoo, that favored the Cardinals minus 7.5.

3. Atlanta at Carolina -5
A team like the Panthers had everyone boosting them up as Super Bowl favorites. When that is happening additional points are going to factor on a teams side for a spread. At Notjustagame.com we did not believe the Falcons would win in convincing fashion but did believe they’d cover the points. It turned out to be an easy win for the Falcons, and another burn to the 76 percent of people that took the Panthers with the points.

4. Denver -4.5 at St. Louis
This spread really did not make any sense. The Broncos usually struggle week one and this game was at St. Louis. They still hadn’t figured out the running game situation and the Rams were healthy again at 100 percent. For some reason 73 percent of the public thought the Broncos would blow out the Rams. It was not a bad choice but never bet high on road favorites, especially in the sloppy expectance of teams in week one. You did not even need the points or to be worried at all if you bet on the Rams in this game.

5. Seattle -6 at Detroit
Here was a game that all you had to do is study the initial line to see something was not right. The linesmakers had this game originally as a four point favorite for the Seahawks. That seemed to be a little odd and a tight setting for a team coming off the Super Bowl. As the line kept going up in the Seahawks favor (83%) it was enough extra points to seem like a safe cover for the Lions. It turned out to be a great cover and almost an underdog upset of the weekend.

The points are in your favor in NFL spreads to utilize. How many times do games come down to the wire? Usually an easy handful of games will come down to a team either trying to tie it up and having a game ending turnover, or getting that late field goal or touchdown to win a game. That means there will be a lot of spreads this season that will be perfectly set for -3.

Do not ever settle for a half point on your bet. If you have a team at -3.5 buy that extra half a point. It’s better to push then lose on a half point, and it will happen if you do not decide too purchase that half point.

Be sure to check out and listen to our week two podcast as we will break down spreads and fantasy matchups for this weekend. Vegas has already planted some double digit booby traps to try to land on people based on week one.

NFL Team Rankings Post Week One

Wednesday, 13 September, 2006

A lot of teams were unimpressive week one. Rankings come out weekly so the harsh judging begins. Check to see where your favorite team is spotted in this weeks installment of NFL team power rankings.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers came out and did what most thought they couldn’t week one.

2. Cincinnati Bengals
Going into Arrowhead and dominating the way they did shows they’re back to get after the Steelers.

3. Seattle Seahawks
There are big concerns ahead as the offensive line looks rattled without Hutchinson.

4. Indianapolis Colts
Their run defense was atrocious. How many possible audibles can Manning call this season?

5. Carolina Panthers
Coming out flat is not the way you want to start a season against a strong division opponent.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars
They responded nicely after digging themselves a ten point hole.

7. New York Giants
All that cost them week one was miscues with penalties and poor play calling.

8. San Diego Chargers
Will the Chargers give Rivers the Roethlisberger treatment with passes all season?

9. Chicago Bears
They would be up higher if it were not for their weak week one opponent.

10. Philadelphia Eagles
Donte’s arrived.

11. Baltimore Ravens
We have a feeling they might begin a climb into the top ten. Something has got back into those stellar defensive players.

12. New England Patriots
What the heck was going on out there?

13. Atlanta Falcons
They’ve done this before, can they build upon this and keep it up?

14. Dallas Cowboys
It was a tough week one opponent and people already are calling for Romo.

15. Denver Broncos
At least their defense handled going onto the field in their territory well. They’ll be okay, but maybe not with Plummer.

16. Miami Dolphins
They were right there against Pittsburgh. Will Daunte’s crucial mistakes be calling for Joey Harrington?

17. Minnesota
Brad Johnson seems set to prove something and Chester Taylor looks like he was the right move for running back.

18. St. Louis Rams
Their defense made big plays but still gave up too many yards, and the offense could not punch the ball in for six.

19. Kansas City
Herman Edwards doesn’t know what happened week one. Damon Huard did the job when he had to step in for Marino in Miami. He has a running game to go to now, so the Chiefs might not be as bad off as people think.

20. Detroit Lions
They have playoff talent on both sides of the football, but they can’t piece it together.

21. Washington Redskins
Too many excuses of why they lost, instead of what they could of done to win against Minnesota.

22. Arizona Cardinals
Nothing has changed in Arizona. The running game failed and they had to go to the passing game against the 49ERS.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s safe to say Atlanta has passed them as Carolina’s threat.

24. New York Jets
Not too much attention went to the Jets this week. Pennington looked great and that needs to continue for the Jets.

25. New Orleans Saints
Bush, Bush, Bush. It’s going to grow old like the NBA over talking Lebron James.

26. Buffalo Bills
That’s why bad teams stay bad teams, when they can’t win games as such the Bills let get away this past weekend.

27. Tennessee Titans
They battled back against the Jets. It’s too bad they’ll be battling from deficits all season.

28. Houston Texans
The one bright sign of week one was Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson having nice days.

29. San Francisco 49ers
Alex Smith and the young 49ers actually look like they can start making steps forward.

30. Cleveland Browns
They’ll need to find a way to produce points or they may be going on a long losing streak.

31. Green Bay Packers
Someone had to of had an indescribable poor week for the Packers not to be 32.

32. Oakland Raiders
The silver and black painted fans of the Raiders are going to start looking across the Bay to the surging 49ers.

Week One: You've Got To Be Kidding Me

Tuesday, 12 September, 2006

The You’ve Got To Be Kidding Me weekly column is back. For those of you not use to it, it is a column dedicated to exactly what the phrase stats. Some of the common threads the column always focuses on are busts, overachievers, and crazy happenings that cause your fantasy football team to lose during the week. This is where you can let out that loss.

Week one was something out of this world, with eleven out of fifteen games being won by the road team. Also, the supposed dominating contenders pulled out some close games that weren’t expected to be. All of this will just go down as a crazy week one that, and a start to an adventurous 2006 NFL season.

The first statement we would like to make is to say how awful it was to see owners get beat by the leg of Jeff Wilkins. Yes, the kicker booted six out of seven field goals as the Rams miraculously could not punch the ball in the end zone after numerous opportunities given by Jake Plummer. Everyone can accept the occasional ten points that come from a kicker, and even that comes as a surprise. To have over twenty points from a kicker though is over doing it. Even in the fantasy crazy sports world. For everyone that jumped out this season to grab Rackers, etc, deserved this happening.

Keeping on the same wavelength of the Rams and Broncos game was the not so shocking performance by Jake Plummer. He looked like the good old Jake making mistakes left and right. All of this happened even with a strong running game from the Bell’s. It had to of been ugly to receive that low mark on your fantasy squad with people looking for Plummer to have a back to back solid season. Now if you have Plummer you may want to already think about picking up Jay Cutler. He is only a bad half from Plummer away from seeing the field.

The Monday Night Football game between the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers was nothing but an embarassment for ESPN’s main Monday Night game. We’ve never seen a more horrible game from a quarterback standpoint. Aaron Brooks just showed Saints fans the truth that they held on to him five years too long. Marty Shottenheimer showed that he thinks the Chargers are going to have to baby Philip Rivers like the Dolphins did with Jay Fiedler. It just did not make sense to see the oddity of how poorly scripted that game went. The Chargers did win in overwhelmingly fashion, 27-0, but played like they wanted to win 3-0.

Lets play the game like professionals and not high school athletics. It’s understandable that Rivers was starting his first game but he has to learn from his mistakes sooner or later. It would have been a good idea to let him experiment a bit in that game then against a team where it will make Rivers look horrible in a tough loss.

A lot of people will say that the Raiders offense may have been the worst showcase of the weekend. If you say that, then you obviously did not see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to function against the Ravens. They could not muster up a yard, pass completion, or anything positive offensively. In fact, the three shutouts over the weekend were the poorest performances by a non scoring team combined ever. Usually a team will come close to scoring, whether it is red zone mistakes or missed field goals. But for the Packers, Raiders, and Buccaneers thoughts of scoring for week one were left behind in the preseason.

On the amazing side of “You’ve Got To Be Kidding Me” the Jets offense gets that award this week. It was good to see that old connection of Chad Pennington and Lavernues Coles come back to life. The Jets are not going to jump on anymore teams in the near future but will have some marginal fantasy value based on Pennington staying healthy.

Emails with questions or comments can be sent to zack.cimini@notjustagame.com

Waiver Wire: Week One

Tuesday, 12 September, 2006

Start scrambling for your early season hopes of gassing your team back up. After all of that crazy talk you blabbed on and on about to every owner in your league, you’re suddenly the first one in line to snatch up a waiver wire pick up. If that is the case, this will likely not be your only time using the oxygen waiver wire to try to bring your team to life.

Here are some players that may be available in your league, to take a look at. Mind you none should be considered fantasy starters but as athletes to add quality depth to your lineup.

Quarterbacks

David Carr
Not overly staggering dynamic numbers from Carr in week one, but he continues to show that he is a solid quarterback. The only thing that has ever kept him from becoming a considered fantasy option is his offensive line and team. Well with Domanick Davis out and the emergence of Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson the Texans will look to throw a lot. With their team expected to be down in most games, Carr should put up a lot of numbers through the air. The only thing to be worried about is the turnover worries.

Chad Pennington
We called it in our fantasy perspective week one article to go ahead and start Pennington. Hopefully you did, because now everyone is going to be looking at him this week. Don’t jump on the wagon too fast as we’ve warned that Pennington is worth starting four to five times this year, and last week was a five star start.

Alex Smith
He looks totally different out on the field. We also liked Alex Smith if you were able to listen to our week one pod cast and cash in on taking the 49ers plus the points. He is a big quarterback that got all of the bad play out of him last season. All he needed was time and he’ll continue to develop at a nice rate. The 49ers have a solid foundation ahead of them offensively and will give teams a hard time.

Brett Favre
Let everyone rag on him now. Favre will throw a lot of interceptions and that is nothing new. They should not be as big as last year and that makes him a fine fantasy backup quarterback. With Ahman Green in the lineup he should be able to hit the dump off pass more often and get some sort of comfort ability back in place. This would be a week to definitely consider even starting Favre. Last year Favre had one of his best games in the early season blowout against New Orleans. With the media all over him, he needs to show something.

Running Backs

Travis Henry
The Titans used Chris Brown more then Henry but it was Henry that was the goal line carrier. His yardage was not pretty, but either is thinking Chris Brown can last a season. His fantasy value is very low but the chances of him either getting traded or seeing more time are high.

Lawrence Maroney
He should have been drafted in any league that was twelve teams or any league that has fantasy gurus. In the slim possibility that he is available, pick him up immediately. The Bills defense is one of the worst at stopping the run in the league and Maroney showed why. He ran all over them week one and will spell Dillon all year long with plenty of time on the field.

Jerious Norwood
No one really knew who was behind Dunn or what the Falcons were thinking when trading Duckett. Norwood showed how much of a better second option he is over Duckett in just one regular season game. Unlike Duckett, if Dunn were injured, there is no doubt that Norwood could carry the load effectively. He is a big back with tremendous all around skills.

Brandon Jacobs
There is a 50/50 chance he may be on your waiver wire. If he is, feel lucky, as he showed in the preseason that he was the real deal. People somewhat expected Jacobs to burst onto the scene last year but that did not happen. What a difference a year makes. Give praise to his off season trainers that had him on the correct workouts to get to this level.

Wide Receivers

Antonio Bryant
Shockingly in most drafts we noticed Bryant was an after thought. Maybe it is because he has been all over the NFL lately and has since signed on with the 49ers past woeful offense. Brandon Lloyd was one of the few 49ers with fantasy value last year. With Alex Smith emerging and Antonio Bryant filling in for the departure of Lloyd, that could equate to a more then solid year from Bryant.

Jerricho Cotchery
The Jets offense looked fantastic week one and may be the only week that happens. As long as Pennington can stay healthy it should function smoothly. Cotchery took over as the Jets second wideout when the demotion of Justin McCareins happened. In week one Cotchery snuck on the scene with a quiet sixty yards and touchdown. He will be a solid bench player to plug in if needed for bye week or injuries.

Jerry Porter
There is no way he’ll be a Raider much longer after his antics Monday night. So where will he land? Likely somewhere that he can jump in and show the value he has been preaching of his worth. He has all the talent in the world if he can get his head on straight. Being this early in the fantasy season you can add him and take a wait and see approach with him.

Koren Robinson
Just when it looks like Robinson was rising back up as an NFL talent he practically blew his second chance. It actually is more then that as the Seahawks let him get away with a few things before finally cutting him. This will be the last stop for Robinson in either a good or bad way. If he can finally control his alcohol problem then he can be a very solid player for the Packers. If not, then Robinson will be one of those troublesome players that is out of the league, and gets mentioned as a “tagged” professional athlete down the road.

Player Spotlights: Jeriuos Norwood and Brandon Jacobs

Monday, 11 September, 2006

For all the critics that were worried about what the Falcons were doing breaking up the DVD (Dunn, Vick, and Duckett), have piped down quite a bit. The Falcons knew they had the player they wanted in Norwood to compliment Dunn. Something TJ Duckett was unable to do.

Out in New York there may have not been a more impressive back then Brandon Jacobs for week one. Anyone that watched the Giants preseason games knew this was coming. He dominated the preseason action and is crucial to maintaining the Giants a healthy Tiki Barber. Barber as well as anyone has said he loves the idea of Jacobs spelling him on a few series a game. That will keep him healthy, and let him progress each and every series.

With Jacobs out on the field he bruises teams. John Madden was saying that Jacobs reminds him a lot of Jerome Bettis with his agility, size, and foot speed. Jacobs looks even better than that comparison, with a lot more foot speed and power then Bettis had at least over his last eight years in the NFL.

For fantasy purposes owners with Tiki Barber better start worrying at the high cost of attaining Barber in past drafts. We warned not to expect the same numbers from Barber especially in the touchdown department. Jacobs is going to be the main guy inside the five yard line, and in any short yardage situation.

Based on Tiki Barber’s overall friendliness outlook to the game of football, he’ll likely be fine with that. Did anyone else notice how friendly Barber and the Colts defensive players were acting after he ran the ball? Each burst by Barber the Colts would help him up, and Barber would tap them on the helmet. It has been a long time since we’ve seen that going on in football, especially when every run was seven yards or more.

Hopefully you already have Jacobs on your roster if you drafted Barber. If not it may not be too early to try and acquire Jacobs. Sure his value may be a bit too high for trade sake, but at least begin negotiating. Get in that owner’s head for a week or two until he realizes he needs to unleash Jacobs. We all know that no one is going to start Jacobs unless Barber goes down, so any owner will be willing to trade him.

The Giants should have beat the Colts if they would have kept plugging away at the running game. How does a team stop rushing the football in key stretches of the game? They were averaging over seven yards a carry but would halt their own progress on a drive by putting the ball in Eli’s hands or unforced penalties. For Tiki to only have 18 carries and Jacobs 8, cost the Giants that football game.

On the flipside, the Falcons did what winning teams do. They ran the football down the Panthers throats and it eventually paid off. Their team controlled and dominated the running game with 48 rushing attempts. Dunn had 29, Norwood 10, Vick 7, and Griffith one. They had the running game going and stuck to it for the entire game. It’s going to be very tough for any defense to stop the assault that the Falcons have planned this season. Dunn was the main factor last season and now defenses can’t rest a bit like they when Duckett would spell Dunn. Norwood has that explosiveness and speed that Duckett lacked, and for now Vick is running freely like he did in the past. That’ll likely tone down a bit as Vick was taken quite a few hard hits on some of his scrambles out of the pocket.

Clearly when you’re looking at having an effective running game, you need two strong backs. The Giants and Falcons look to be the leading runners in that category, and that gives them a tremendous edge to get a few extra wins. The type of wins that come down to having that fourth quarter ability to drowned seven to eight minutes off the clock. There are lots of teams that think they have the right duo but none are the staggeringly different runners like the Falcons and Giants can throw at you.