Archive for August, 2006

Is Brown Over Valued?

Saturday, 19 August, 2006

Take a look at fantasy football draft recaps and you’ll see a familiar trend. Many owners are jumping on Ronnie Brown like he is an all pro running back with continuation aspirations. Sure he is headed there, but based on last season there needs to be more shown from Brown. The fact that Ricky Williams is out of the picture does not guarantee a thing. If anything it could have an adverse affect as Williams created that extra motivation for Brown.

Even though people will argue the best back in Miami last year was Williams. You could blame the fact that Brown was a rookie or even the Dolphins offensive line, but Williams did factor more and more as the main back as the Dolphins great finish winded down. It is a stretch by far to include Brown now as a top five running back. Ranking him near the bottom of the top ten with an upside asterisk seems ideal right now.

First off, Brown is going to be dealing with two things he has not been familiar with. One will be carrying the load more than usual. Even in college he had Carnell Williams to split up his carries. As a young explosive back in the NFL now, Miami will be looking to increase his workload significantly. They may reduce it if he can not handle it, as Travis Minor has been effective as a secondary back.

Secondly, Daunte Culpepper is going to be his quarterback, and he’ll likely be rusty for the first month or longer. Meaning teams will gear to shut Brown down from week one on.

Last season, Brown had some crucial fumbles in critical points that were not talked about a lot. Fumbling four times in the NFL season does not seem bad, but when you only carried the football 200 times it is more alarming. Add more carries in 2006 and he could be one of the leading fumblers in the league. Let’s not even think worst case scenario, which would be seeing Joey Harrington inserted as quarterback if Culpepper struggles.

Neither Culpepper or Harrington has been a great producer for their running backs. In Minnesota, Culpepper never had a back that could be counted for in fantasy football, and in Detroit the same went for Harrington. Those cases had all to do with their teams offensive philosophy and the lack of a strong back.

So when you have that early to mid first round pick do not over reach for Brown. He is going to be a solid back but there are too many question marks to take him that high. We all know that having running backs in fantasy football is vital, but you may want to elect to trade that pick down to crop up a tandem of backs.

Fantasy football drafters are loving the fact that Brown has it all too himself. With a weak crop of running backs to draft this season, Brown’s value has skyrocketed. Will he prove to be worthy of his hype or just an okay fantasy back? We’ll see.

Jets Have No Fantasy Value

Friday, 18 August, 2006

Herman Edwards was quick to dart away from the Kansas City Chiefs without any complaints. He knew the road the Jets were traveling and where the Chiefs are as well. That’s two different directions, and the Jets are the ones pacing backwards. Every year something is going wrong with their offense. Just a couple of years ago their team seemed bright and destined to take on the New England Patriots. Now they’re soon to be a team in a serious transformation phase with questions all over the place.

It all started with Chad Pennington’s injuries. Two years in a row he has went down with a shoulder injury and some think he may never recover. He already had a weak arm before the injuries, and seeing how his arm can hold up all season will be a hard test. They’ll have to lessen the load on his arm which may be hard considering the Jets may not have Curtis Martin.

Martin’s knees are so bad right now that he hasn’t been able to respond to the off season workout treatments. You hate to see a guy leave the game like this but that appears to be where Martin is headed. Unfortunately for the Jets they decided to unleash Lamont Jordan last year after keeping him around for a great length of time. He sure would be great to have now. To find some insurance in case Martin can’t play, the Jets went after Lee Suggs. A capable back that the Jets felt comfortable trading for, only to see the Suggs fail his physical and leave the Jets still searching for a back. There are many names out there that the Jets may go after including TJ Duckett or even a Travis Henry. Whoever it is, may want to come up with an ailment upon physical as the Jets are going to be horrific. The one bright side for any running back joining the team would be the Jets first round pick in Ferguson, who’ll have plenty of runs on his side of the line.

From a fantasy standpoint, the Jets actually have no one worth looking at for the first six rounds of a fantasy draft. In fact, you could stretch it out even further for people still worried about Lavernues Coles and his turf toe problems. As wild as it may sound, the Jets may have zero fantasy value for the upcoming season. At quarterback, the answer could be Chad Pennington, Patrick Ramsey, or Kellen Clemons. None of which should be taken in a fantasy football draft, and may not be considered even as a waiver wire pickup when a starter is named. At running back, Curtis Martin is still being taken in drafts based on his past eleven years, but people need to move on. The likelihood of Martin stepping on the field this season is looking doubtful, and if he does, he will have zero fantasy impact.

That leaves the wide receivers. A group that would be better off with Santana Moss, but , oh wait, they traded him for Lavernues Coles. A very smart move by the Jets front office. Really though, Coles should bounce back somewhat as he has played his best with Chad Pennington as his quarterback. Behind Coles was supposed to be Justin McCareins but he has reportedly fallen off as a starting Jets receiver. Possibly to the point of being traded, as the Jets are extremely disappointed with him. That would move up Jerricho Cotchery or Tim Dwight as the starting opposite receiver of Coles. Don’t we all smell an offense that has 2006 Pro Bowlers names all over it?

Geesh, there is no hope for this Jets franchise. It may be a good thing that the New York fans can continue to have a big appearance at the NFL Draft every year in New York City. As they will be having the top five pick for years to come.

Start filing away a mental note on one thing to remember about this 2006 Jets franchise. We can envision a future trivia question. What NFL team has started the most amount of different quarterbacks? That future trivia question will soon be, the 2006 New York Jets.

Colts Backup Problems

Friday, 11 August, 2006

Week one in the preseason and woes are expected. As Peyton Manning exited to the sidelines the Colts prospects as backup quarterbacks came to the field. From one of Jim Sorgi’s first throws a sideline camera would show Peyton Manning shaking his head. If Manning would have been wearing a voice headset he would have been going off more than once.

The Colts may not expect it, but Peyton Manning is not inevitable. An injury could occur and even if it is minor, they are not prepared. Neither Jim Sorgi or Shaun King has the capable skills of holding this team together for a three or four game span. If the Colts can’t see it, they are in some deep trouble. The wisest move for them would be to evaluate other quarterbacks that may be dumped during preseason or even finding a viable free agent quarterback left.

It does not seem like a big deal right now to the Colts as Peyton Manning has never been seriously hurt. He has a smooth delivery and never takes a big hit. In fact, he gets sacked rarely because of the Colts style of offense. This season though, he is not going to have it that easy. The Colts have a new running game that is going to take awhile to develop. On Thursday night, both Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes looked ineffective. The whole offense did though, and they’ll benefit greatly with more time and action with Peyton Manning as the preseason goes on.

The big thing for the Colts on Thursday was the offensive line. St. Louis’s defense was in on the Colts all night long and the line never could adjust. They did as bad a job as you could expect for the first game of the preseason. For all the talk and ridicule Manning gave at the offensive line last season, things have not become better yet at least. They should dig in and become more familiar with each other, hopefully.

A nice quarterback for the Colts to maybe take a look at, was the quarterback opposing them tonight in Ryan Fitzpatrick. The talk is that he may be the odd man out with Scott Linehan in St Louis. If that’s the case, Fitzpatrick should be a nice addition to a multiple of teams including the Colts. He showed promise last year as a rookie in some spot duty action, and did so as well in the Rams first preseason game.

We just can’t believe though that the Colts have not pursued a solid backup. Tony Dungy must have been assured of Shaun King from his days with Tampa Bay. But King fell from starter to being waived with Tampa Bay for a reason, and fell out of Arizona quickly for a reason as well. He got lucky his rookie season, plain in simple, and his days as an NFL quarterback are done. He could not be counted on for a game, if he started an entire meaningless preseason game.

Perhaps Manning will be one of the few quarterbacks that somehow evades injuries. Then again, besides Brett Favre who has been able to avoid injury at the quarterback position his entire career? If you’re the Colts and want to gain that critical home field advantage you better analyze all outlets. A few games without Peyton Manning could be a huge difference in playoff seedings.

Picture Jim Sorgi or Shaun King starting critical games in midst of a strong start by Manning? They would not be able to handle it, and would be lucky to win a game. Sign someone now, Indianapolis.