Archive for September, 2005

Figured Out

Sunday, 18 September, 2005

It took almost five years, but the Ravens have been completely figured out. Either that or there are bigger problems that haven’t came to the surface yet. After two weeks of football, a season in which the Ravens were expected to be serious contenders, they are now 0-2. Early excuses are sometimes a factor, but that isn’t the case here. Baltimore is in serious trouble of having a dangerous setback year, that they may not come back out of for a few years.

Perhaps Jamal Lewis needs more time to get his feet and game conditioning back to Pro Bowl status, or maybe that wouldn’t change his route at all. Two years ago he had his infamous 2,000 yard season, and from there it has been a downhill slide. Lewis looks battered from injuries, personal issues, and being without a fresh contract. Gearing to shut him down has never been this easy, but it isn’t even ten percent of his fault.

After bringing in Derrick Mason and having a returned healthy Todd Heap, the Ravens were hoping to bring Kyle Boller’s right arm out of a cast. That arm must need special treatment as it hasn’t cooperated with its settings. His injury against the Colts may help him sit down and think about where he is at in his career. If he returns to the lineup and plays as the same low robotic quarterback than this team is history. As scary as this may sound, Baltimore’s season rides on Kyle Boller.

A team in the NFL that wants to be successful has to have a formidable passing attack. Running the ball well comes hand in hand if you can do the above. It’s a miracle that the Ravens were able to do what they did with Lewis a few years ago, but that isn’t going to happen anymore. The offensive line has aged and isn’t as stellar anymore, and defenses realize they can afford to leave the passing game open. Every time they do, Boller or Wright hasn’t been able to make the correct decisions. More than often it’s either a rushed throw, quick out, or to the other team.

Contracted behavior is a natural inhibited human trait. The fact that the offense fails to produce on every drive, is demoting to the mental state of the defense. Just because the defense and offense isn’t on the field together doesn’t mean they are two complete separate units. There is too much emphasis on individual positions and specific coordinators for each position. When a team is seeing part of it being useless and torn to an oblivion, it rubs off in a negative way.

That may not rub off on the defense every week, but there are going to be times like Sunday where it does. The offense failed to run the ball for more than twenty yards, while the passing game didn’t take a step across the bridge take off.

Motivation is what drives a defense. Imagine setting foot on the field with all the might in your drive to stop a team. Shutting down opponents is routine, but this time you give up an early touchdown. That 110 percent effort quickly withers down to 100, and so forth every time you start to realize that no matter what you do it doesn’t matter. Your offense doesn’t has a shot like Shaq making a free throw to put up any points on the scoreboard.

To act like this wouldn’t eventually come for the Baltimore defense is insane. They’ve been great for such a long time, and are still a force. It’s just that plays can be made on them, and in years prior that could only be a singular term with the word play. To expect their defense to hold the great AFC teams to under ten points anymore is reliance on prior history. Get past that and don’t let the fact that the team is giving up points stretch your mind from the real plague. A week ago Tennessee gave up ballooning amounts of yards on the ground and even through the air for the amount of throws Roethlisberger threw. Literally the Titans defense looks average again thanks to the Ravens.

The door will shut completely for the Ravens if Boller doesn’t come back a nerve ready quarterback. Before long their will be defensive captains that speak out on this matter from the Ravens. It wouldn’t be shocking to see someone like Ray Lewis voice his mind with a demand. Either bring in a capable starting quarterback or get rid of me.

Week Two Picks

Saturday, 17 September, 2005

If you were able to make all correct selections for your weekly pool last week, than luck won’t be on your side much longer. A few games here and there went to the hole of week one disasters. That is over now, and from week two beyond averages should cover for week one’s horrible start.

Here are Notjustagame.com’s Week Two Picks

Overall Record: 10-6

Detroit over Chicago
Cincinnati over Minnesota
Baltimore over Tennessee
Jacksonville over Indianapolis
Philadelphia over San Francisco
Tampa Bay over Buffalo
Carolina over New England
Pittsburgh over Houston
St. Louis over Arizona
Atlanta over Seattle
San Diego over Denver
Cleveland over Green Bay
Miami over NY Jets
Kansas City over Oakland
New Orleans over NY Giants
Dallas over Washington

Week Two: Starting Cast/Extra Worries

Friday, 16 September, 2005

Throw week one’s stats in the garbage, as they will have no factor in future stats. In fact assuming any trend currently would be a bad idea. It’s going to take a good four to five weeks for the level of consistency to begin to show. Week two should be a sharper week all around as one game is under everyone’s belts.

Detroit at Chicago

Automatic: Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, and Thomas Jones
Both Jones should put up solid number two fantasy running back stats this week. Neither was involved that much in week one. Thomas Jones isn’t going to have much value all year, so get what you can out of him now.

Don’t Do It: Joey Harrington
Chicago’s defense manages to stay strong annually. The Lions are going to game plan exactly like last week. That’s to keep Harrington from losing the game.

Minnesota at Cincinnati

Automatic: Daunte Culpepper, Nate Burelson, Chad Johnson, TJ Houzmandeh, Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson
An array of offensive talent is on showcase here. Culpepper will be able to bounce back, and hopefully also stay away from turnovers.

Don’t Do It: Michael Bennett
It will take a worthy game by Bennett before fitting him as a potential starter.

Baltimore at Tennessee
Automatic: Derrick Mason, Jamal Lewis, and Anthony Wright
Chestor Taylor is starting to have that Lamont Jordan presence. As a back up he is coming in and being an instant impact. Jamal Lewis will get a bulk of carries this week, as the Ravens shouldn’t be down big. With Anthony Wright in the game the Ravens passing game jumps up a few notches. Wright’s ability to throw the ball deep is a good reason to insert Mason and possibly Clarence Moore.

Don’t Do It: Travis Henry or Chris Brown
Trying to run on the Ravens defense isn’t going to happen.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Automatic: Byron Leftwich, Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne
There aren’t any questionable athletes to not start. Last year both teams put on offensive shows twice. It seemed that Leftwich’s game excelled when facing the Colts. He’ll need to try to duplicate those performances, and keep the hot connection between him and Jimmy Smith boiling.

San Francisco at Philadelphia
Automatic: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Terrell Owens, Greg Lewis, and Brandon Lloyd
This is the perfect bounce back confidence builder game for the Eagles. Not much confidence should be gone after last weeks loss, but the chance to destroy a team is always a good thing. The 49ers will be down big, and that’ll mean Brandon Lloyd should have a solid day.

Don’t Do It: Tim Rattay
A nice week one but it won’t be long before Alex Smith is in.

Buffalo at Tampa Bay

Automatic: Willis McGahee, Michael Clayton, Carnell Williams, and Josh Reed
It’s going to be a low scoring defensive battle. That doesn’t sound intriguing, but look for the running game to open up a few deep pass plays.

Don’t Do It: Brian Griese or JP Losman
There just going to be enough from either to want to start them. Both should have stats below 200 yards. In a week with all of the offensive spotlight games, it’s not worth starting either.

New England at Carolina

Automatic: Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme, Stephen Davis, Steve Smith, and Corey Dillon
For teams posing strong defenses, they have plenty of games where they give up points and yardage. That’ll come to front this week, in a likely yardage fest.

Don’ Do It: Rod Gardner or a Patriots WR
You never know which Patriots receiver will get have the extra hand. It seems Brady spreads the football around just enough to not have a consistent favorite target. Rod Gardner is a risky pick this week. He could do very well and collect piss off points on your bench. If you’re really that weak at receiver, he is a solid candidate for this week.

Pittsburgh at Houston

Automatic: Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Domanic Davis, and Andre Johnson
David Carr may have a down year but it won’t completely take away Domanick Davis and Andre Johnson’s value. Parker is going to get plenty of carries and should once again be one of the most productive fantasy backs of the week.

Don’t Do It: Ben Roethlisberger or David Carr
Roethlisberger says he’ll start, but he might not finish. The Steelers will likely pull him as quick as possible if the game gets out of control. Roethlisberger doesn’t attempt fifteen passes for a whole game, so imagine what he’ll do with only three quarters?

St. Louis at Arizona

Automatic: Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Bryant Johnson, Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Isaac Bruce, and Torry Holt

The Cardinals will be throwing the ball the entire game. With around forty passes and well over 300 yards likely to happen for Warner, all the receivers are great starting candidates. The Rams offense will be even more dangerous because they’ll have a running game.

Don’t Do It: JJ Arrington
Don’t figure the Rams weak defense means that JJ Arrington will be a sleeper this week. He’ll be lucky to run over fifty yards.

Atlanta at Seattle

Automatic: Mike Vick, Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler, Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, and Darrell Jackson
Each team was supposed to be facing each other last season in the NFC championship, but Seattle vacated four months early. Atlanta has a formidable offense that’s main athletes should always start on your fantasy team. Seattle’s offense hasn’t been the problem in their down fall.

Don’t Do It: Michael Jenkins
He had one big catch that could have been a touchdown if he fell a yard further. He could become Vick’s reason to throw more. For now Jenkins is a borderline third receiver but a bench rider until he upgrades that status.

San Diego at Denver

Automatic: Drew Brees, LT, Keenan McCardell, Antonio Gates, Ashley Lelie, and Rod Smith
Dangerous territory for each team, as 0-2 is nearing one of them. The fear of that should keep both offenses churning well.

Don’t Do It: Jake Plummer
His interceptions and fumbling is too much to look past.

Cleveland at Green Bay

Automatic: Trent Dilfer, Reuben Droughns, Braylon Edwards, Antonio Bryant, Ahman Green, Donald Driver, and Brett Favre
Neither team has a defense, so start whoever you can from each team.

Don’t Do It: William Green
Green will get five to ten carries, but Droughns is the guy for now.

Miami at NY Jets

Automatic: Chris Chambers, Gus Frerotte, Curtis Martin, Lavernues Coles
Lavernues Coles had some of his best games as a Jet against Miami. He owns Sam Madison, but Pennington may not be able to get the ball to him. The Jets defense was suspect last week, but should be able to stop Miami’s weak running game.

Don’t Do It: Ronnie Brown or Chad Pennington
Jay Fiedler may get a chance to face his old team if Pennington gets off to a sluggish start.

Kansas City at Oakland

Automatic: Everyone fantasy worthy
Cannons of confetti and touchdown celebrations will occur every few minutes.

NY Giants at New Orleans

Automatic: Deuce McAllister, Aaron Brooks, Tiki Barber, and Plaxico Burress
It may take a quarter or two, but McAllister will eventually get a few off against the Giants defense. As usual Tiki Barber will get his stats either through the running or passing game.

Don’t Do It: Eli Manning
The Giants put up 42 points, and Manning’s stats were still below average for a fantasy starter.

Washington at Dallas

Automatic: Julius Jones, Clinton Portis, Keyshawn Johnson, and Santana Moss
It’ll likely be the lowest scoring Monday night game in awhile. Both teams will run the ball, and punt a lot.

Don’t Do It: Mark Brunell
Brunell hasn’t had a good game as a quarterback in years. He is on his last string in the NFL, and maybe that’ll resurrect his career.

End of Week One Team Rankings

Friday, 16 September, 2005

Change can’t go out of control in one week. So for the most part teams will hang around the top ten that were ranked there in the preseason. Even teams that start off 2-2. Just because a record is average doesn’t mean that team isn’t better than someone 3-1 or 4-0. When late October comes by that’s when a true picture of the real teams will begin to be foreseeable.

Biggest fall off:
Houston Texans from the nineteenth rank to twenty ninth.

Biggest Jump:
Buffalo from thirtieth spot to the twentieth.

1. New England (1)
Will things ever be different? This team must eat a lot of Wheaties, because they know how to win every week.

2. Atlanta (2)
It was good for the Falcons to be able to knock off the team that bounced them out last season. They’ll be facing the Eagles later down the road this season, so they’ll need to stay just as aggressive.

3. Philadelphia (3)
They were without their star linebacker and only lost because of the Falcons getting a few touchdowns early in the first quarter. Terrell Owens is off to another fantastic year, and Brian Westbrook may be the fastest back when hitting a hole.

4. Carolina (5)
Their running and passing game is back. The defense isn’t the best at stopping teams, but they make up for that with their turnover ability.

5. Pittsburgh (7)
No team can run the football as well as the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger has been starting for almost a year now, and we still can’t fully evaluate his skills.

6. Indianapolis (8)
Baltimore’s offense didn’t enough to warrant the Colts defense a raving rating. If they can just slow down great offenses than the Colts may finally be able to defeat the Patriots.

7. Minnesota (6)
Culpepper is going to have to move past last weeks performance. There is too much pressure on him to let one game dwell in his mind.

8. New York Jets (4)
There are all sorts of concerns with the Jets now. Their defense gave up a fortune of yards on the ground, and Pennington still can’t find zip in his throws.

9. Dallas (9)
Impressive road win, and equally impressive debut by Drew Bledsoe. The team looks rejuvenated, especially Keyshawn Johnson.

10. Cincinnati (12)
The Bengals are creeping on their AFC opponents, and are have a serious shot at winning the division title.

11. New Orleans (18)
Will the Saints march come to a halt, or move in a steadily climb?

12. NY Giants (14)
Jumped out the gates with an offensive attack.

13. Kansas City (17)
We’ve seen this before in early weeks of the regular season from the defense.

14. Jacksonville (22)
As long as Jimmy Smith stays solid, Leftwich is going to improve by the weeks.

15. Tampa Bay (24)
Carnell Williams looks like the early ROY winner.

16. St. Louis (10)
Lets hope they just under valued the 49ers.

17. Denver (11)
An embarrassing week one loss. It was a dismal display on both sides of the ball. Denver’s franchise could be under serious jeopardy in the coaching and quarterback departments.

18. San Diego (13)
Tough losses like the one they had against the Cowboys, can’t happen if they want to return to the playoffs.

19. Baltimore (15)
The defense needs some sort of help.

20. Buffalo (30)
The defense may be able to carry this team to some extra wins that they shouldn’t get.

21. Oakland (23)
Kerry Collins needs to play consistent for an entire game instead of just stretches. Still the Raiders played well against the defending Super Bowl champs.

22. Detroit (26)
The Lions did this last year, and look to be off to another 2-0 start.

23. Seattle (16)
Hit the alarm button, jobs are on the line.

24. Green Bay (20)
The Pack are fading to the back of the pack.

25. Miami (27)
Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas continue to wreck offenses.

26. Tennessee (25)
The defense can’t allow that many rushing yards every week, can they?

27. Cleveland (29)
Trent Dilfer and the Browns offense may actually do alright this year.

28. Arizona (21)
A team can’t win without an offensive line.

29. Houston (19)
Pitiful opening week.

30. Washington (29)
Mark Brunell’s ninth life.

31. San Francisco (32)
At least they won’t have to count on the Cardinals for wins this year.

32. Chicago (31)
The passing game isn’t threatening. It causes the most aggressive style of defense possible, because they can just attack.

Week One Wonders

Friday, 16 September, 2005

Before you get extra curricular on viewing a waiver wire pick up, think before wasting your time. Numbers do stand out, but look at prior numbers as well. If a guy is the fourth receiver, and has a breakout game, don’t expect that to continue. It’s called luck and making a couple of big plays when he was on the field. If an injury occurs on that team, than you may want to scoop that athlete up.

Quarterbacks

Gus Frerotte
Bad days are coming for Frerotte. His history shows that he has never been a steady quarterback. He hasn’t been able to remain a starter on a team ever, and that pattern will continue. Once he starts showing his true self, Sage Rosenfels will get his chance. You all just viewed Frerotte’s best game of the season.

JP Losman
Not ready is the keyword with Losman. His main value right now is his ability to scramble with his legs. But he is not going to have many solid games throwing the football, as defenses continue to learn his weaknesses. Give him time and he’ll be a nice fantasy quarterback.

Running Backs

Willie Parker
A great back but carries will be taken away shortly. Even though Staley is willing to take the back seat to Parker, he’ll get some carries. As will Jerome Bettis whenever he can return. Yardage may be Parker’s best friend this season, but reaching the end zone inside the ten won’t. He’ll have to break some mighty long runs to eclipse over five or six touchdowns. If you’re really weak at running back, you may just want to insert Parker along with Bettis or Staley. Likely Bettis, because he is known to bull doze for touchdowns. That way you’re sure to get the touchdowns and yardage points. It may sound crazy, but it’s guaranteed to work. When is the last week Pittsburgh’s running game has ever been shut down?

Stephen Davis
He looks old out there, and another injury is just around the corner. You’re supposed to have fresh legs after sitting out the majority of the off-season. If Carolina plans on using Davis as their main back, he will not make it past the mid point of the season. He had one run last week that he should have been able to break into the end zone, but instead he was tracked down embarrassingly. If Carolina starts to use Foster more like the did a few years ago, that will help Davis more than people would think. He can be a more aggressive and useful back with twelve to fifteen carries a game.

Wide Receivers

Frisman Jackson
Cupid must have set a one day date between a football and Frisman Jackson. The date went well but I think the football was only interested in a one day stand. Somehow Cleveland’s offense is stocked at wide receiver and running back. Once they can figure out which back to use, and get their young receivers acclimated this team is going to be back. Back to the point they were in 2002 when Tim Couch faded and Kelly Holcomb led them to the playoffs.

Joey Galloway
Galloway has the talent, but is more teasing than a woman secretary. Literally Galloway will be a forgotten sole, and pop up one week with a noticeable game. Ever since 1998 in Seattle his season stats have been detoriating worse than people getting yearly plastic surgery. Injuries are part of the blame, but he is thirty three now. Any great games this year will come because of having Michael Clayton on the other side.

Keenan McCardell
He sure left a burning trail against the Cowboys secondary. McCardell has always been a guy to rack up yardage, but the two touchdown receptions was amazing. The last time he had a multi touchdown game was October 6th, 2003. It’s a wait and see thing with McCardell. He could actually prove to be one of those strong veterans. With Antonio Gates back, that’s going to leave more open areas for McCardell to be found, or void McCardell out completely as Brees looks Gates way every time.

Improved Stock

Thursday, 15 September, 2005

Downgrades due to surroundings are often the case for plenty of highly potential athletes. If your supporting cast is weak, than it’s just a part of the territory. The athlete that could be great on a strong team slips to a bench or free agent list in fantasy leagues. We all know how predictions can be wrong. Especially in today’s world of sports, where the change is so rapid that grasping a feel for a team is hard to do. Now that week one is over though, there are some opportunities. Players that stock were low a week ago have been placed into the radar category.

Quarterbacks

Byron Leftwich
Leftwich has always harbored around below average stats, even though he has played beyond them. The Jaguars have always kept Leftwich mistake free by letting him grow slowly. Last year he started to have the occasional glimpses of big fantasy play, only to back track the weeks following. It looks like Jacksonville is ready to let Leftwich utilize his arm fully. With the freedom to throw more, Leftwich should now become a mid to low range top ten quarterback in fantasy football.

Trent Dilfer
It’s hard to believe, but Dilfer did impress in his Browns debut. We don’t know how it happened, and don’t expect it to continue. Factoring in the Browns and Bengals usual no defense against each other, had to have been the reason. Still, Dilfer has jumped at least five to seven spots from being at the bottom of fantasy football rankings. That would still make him a non considerable fantasy football quarterback.

Mark Brunell
Here we go again. Brunell will get probably his last chance to be a true real NFL starter. Basically if he can prove something, the Redskins may use him for a few more years. If not, he’ll have to settle for back up duty else where. The Redskins have plenty of offensive talent. It’s time to see if Brunell can gut it out like he did back in Jacksonville.

Running Backs

Lamont Jordan
His first game was average at best, but he displayed what we all needed to see and that’s ability. He had a strong first half, before the Raiders offense folded completely. With Moss and a healthy Porter out there, Jordan will be able to break some long gains. The only problem that remains is Zack Crockett. Crockett showed that he still can do damage, and is likely still their short yardage guy.

Carnell Williams
All the talk about the Vikings improved defense proved to be a laughing matter. Rookies aren’t supposed to be able to make a mockery of a defense in their first game. It’s only going to get brighter for Williams, and the Buccaneers are truly deep, deep, dark horses in the NFC.

Wide Receivers

Plaxico Burress
Eli showed the maturation of someone with a little experience. Little is a key word, but should move into the phase intermediate soon. Manning has a big deep threat target in Burress, and they’ve already got chemistry on the field.

Chris Chambers
Chambers is probably the best talented receiver in the NFL that gets bogged down the most for being on a weaker team. He only had forty receiving yards in week one, but the fact that Miami showed on offense was promising. Chambers is a special receiver, that will make a ton of plays when given the opportunity. With Miami looking to actually throw, Chambers should return to the type of numbers he had a few years ago.

Steve Smith
Questions of recovering from injury were rethought, “I didn’t say anything”. Before anyone could even ask the question, Smith showed what he is all about. A legitimate top ten receiver, who probably has one of the best shots at beating out a Torry Holt, Moss, or Harrison for most yardage in the league.